renewable energy potentials projections to 2050
DESCRIPTION
RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIALS Projections to 2050. BASED ON THE PRESENTATION of Mohamed El-Ashry Chairman REN 21 3rd Ministerial Meeting in Gleneagles Dialogue, Berlin, September 10, 2007. main questions concerning medium/long term trends RENEWABLE ENERGY. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIALS
Projections to 2050
BASED ON THE PRESENTATION ofMohamed El-Ashry Chairman REN 21
3rd Ministerial Meeting in Gleneagles Dialogue, Berlin, September 10, 2007
main questions concerning medium/long term trends
RENEWABLE ENERGY A) What opportunities do renewable energy
technologies (RETs) offer to major markets in the medium-and long-term?
B) Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term?
C) What will be the driving force of a clean technology revolution based on RET?
A) OPPORTUNITIES Very high potential overall — no resource constraint.
Markets
• RET could satisfy global electricity and heat demand.
• Technical potential of bioenergy is not sufficient to displace fossil fuels entirely in the transport sector.
• Share of RET is dependent on demands (peak / background or continuous supply)
What opportunities do renewable energy technologies (RETs) offer to major markets in the medium-and long-term?
A) OPPORTUNITIES (CONTD.)
Regions
• Sufficient renewable energy resource potential in every region is naturally present.
• Some regions are rich in specific resource: HYDROPOWER in AsiaBIOMASS crops in eastern Europe and the former
Soviet UnionONSHORE WIND in North AmericaSOLAR(CSP&PV) in Africa and the Middle EastGEOTHERMAL in Asia and Latin AmericaOCEAN POWER in Asia, North America, and Oceania
What opportunities do renewable energy technologies (RETs) offer to major markets in the medium-and long-term?
HYDRO
Hoover Dam (USA, Nevada)2080 MW = ~2GW (1931-36)4.2 GWh / year
Three Gorges Dam (China, )22500 MW (1994-2008!) 80 -100 000 GWh/year (~100TWh)
HYDRO
Three Gorges Dam (China)22500 mW (1994-2008!) 80 -100 000 GWh/year (~100TWh)
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT (+/-):NEG Changing landscapePOS According to the National Development and Reform Commission of China, 366 grams of coal would produce 1 kWh of electricity during 2006.
At full power, Three Gorges Dam:- Reduces coal consumption by 31 Mt/yAvoiding:- 100 Mt greenhouse gas emissions,- millions of tonnes of dust,- 1 Mt of sulfur dioxide, - 370,000 tonnes of nitric oxide,- 10,000 tonnes of carbon monoxide,- and a significant amount of mercury.
Hydropower saves the energy needed to mine, wash, and transport the coal from northern China.
Solucar PS10 is the first solar thermal power plant based on tower in the world that generate electric)
CSP concentratig solar power S20 and PS10 in Andalusia, Spain SOLAR
PS20 and PS10 in Andalusia, Spain SOLAR
Svartsengi Power Station150mW geothermal capacity76mW installed (start 1976)
Nesjavellir Power Station300mW geothermal capacity120mW installed (start 1990)
ICELANDOn >1150mW thermal capacity,~580mW installed up to 2010
150mW / 76mW: 1976150mW / 60mW: 1977300mW / 120mW: 1990150mW / 100mW: 2006400mW / 213mW: 2010
Geothermal power plantin Reykjavik, Iceland
GEOTHERMAL
WIND POWER
Wind power installed in Europe by end of 2010
WIND
According to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) report of February 2011,
-there are over 12,000 wind turbines in Europe
-with a total capacity of 84 GW.
-The European Union accounts for over 98% of that total.
-In 2010, €12.7 billion was invested in EU wind farms and
- 9.3 GW of new power capacity was installed.
-9.1% of the total energy capacity of the EU now comes from wind, up from just 2.2% in 2000.
-In a normal wind year, 5.3% of the EU's electricity is produced from wind power.
-As of January 2011, offshore wind farms account for approximately 3.5% of capacity.
-There are 1,136 offshore turbines installed, totalling 2.9GW in 45 wind farms in 9 countries.
WIND POWER
WIND
According to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) report of February 2011,
WIND POWER
The EWEA estimates that 230GW of wind capacity will be installed in Europe by 2020, (190GW onshore + 40GW offshore.
This would produce 14-17% of the EU's electricity, avoiding 333 million tonnes of CO2 per year and saving Europe €28 billion a year in avoided fuel costs.
WIND
Wind power today, in an average wind year, generates the equivalent of
- over 20% of Denmark’s electricity use
-25–30% of that in three German Länder,
-and on windy days with light loads, over 100% of the load in certain regions, particularly in West Denmark, North Germany, and northern Spain.
WIND POWER
EXAMPLE of DANISH WIND POWER PLANTS see in separate slides!
B) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SHARE BY 2050 Electricity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sh
are
of
RE
S e
lec
tric
ity
su
pp
ly in
%
hydro wind biomass PV CSP geothermal ocean energy
Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term?
B) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SHARE BY 2050 (CONTD.)
Heating and Cooling
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sh
are
of
RE
S h
ea
t s
up
ply
in
%
biomass solar geothermal
Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term?
Transport Fuels
B) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SHARE BY 2050 (CONTD.)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Sh
are
of
bio
fue
ls in
%
biofuels
Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term?
$70.9bn
$49.6bn
$27.5bn
2004 2005 2006
GLOBAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY2004 - 2006
80% Growth
43% Growth
Grossed-up estimate based on disclosed deals. New investment only. Source: New Energy Finance
What will be the driving force of a clean technology revolution based on RET?
C) DRIVERS FOR A RET REVOLUTION
Costs (of production & installing & maintain)
Capital (investments , since produciton „good
deal”)
Climate safe technology (Mte CO2, against
non-renewables)
What will be the driving force of a clean technology revolution based on RET?