trajectories of change of crop livestock systems in kenya: engaging stakeholders and modeling. mario...
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A presentation made at the WCCA 2011 event in Brisbane, Australia.TRANSCRIPT
Trajectories of change of crop livestock systems in Kenya:
engaging stakeholders and modeling
Mario Herrero
WCCA Crop-Livestock Systems Modelling WorkshopBrisbane, Australia Sept 2011
Background
• Understand drivers of why and where are livestock systems changing in Kenya and what are the choices for producers
• Used a range of models– Land use models (CLUE)– Spatial econometrics– Household models– Livestock and crop models– Climate change models
• Substantial stakeholder consultation with policy makers and local institutions
• ILRI, Kenyan Agricultural Research Institute, Ministries of Agriculture and Livestock, Wageningen University
• From 2001-2006
- -
Climate change
Population growth
Land size change
Market changes
New opportunities in urban areas
Why are systems changing?
Importance of market access and climatic characteristics
Cash crops
Maize as food and cash crop
Cattle in zero- grazing unit
Where are systems changing?
Scenarios: storylines for potential development paths
• Each scenario is an alternative image of how the future might unfold.
• Scenarios can be viewed as a linking tool that integrates – qualitative narratives about future development pathways
and – quantitative formulations based on formal modelling, and
available data• Scenarios can enhance our understanding of how
systems work, behave and evolve, and so can help in the assessment of future developments.
What can a scenario tell us?
• Which impacts would this have on farmers’ decisions?
• Under what larger storylines is this change likely to occur?
e.g. Reduced land availability
Change farm activities
Increase inputs
Stop farming
Four possible development paths
• This presentation presents four possible but simplistic development paths for agriculture in the Kenyan Highlands over the next 15 to 20 years:
• Baseline scenario• Equitable growth scenario (ERS)• In-equitable growth scenario• Equitable growth scenario with climate change
Baseline scenario
• Key features: continuation of development pathways seen in Kenya in 1980s and 90s
• Poorly functioning public institutions for supporting agriculture, education and market development
• Market barriers internally and externally, and poor market infrastructure• Policy environment that stifles enterprise and innovation in both rural
and urban economies• Result: poor economic growth, continued urban-rural migration, little ag
productivity growth, continued high population growth and land fragmentation
Demand
• Change in demand for commodities– Maize– Beans– Tea– Milk
• Driving factors– Population growth– Income (with commodity specific elasticities)– Export
26.0
26.1
26.2
26.3
26.4
26.5
26.6
26.7
26.8
26.9
27.0
2004 2009 2014 2019 2024
Baseline Equitable In-equitable
Rel
ativ
e ch
ang
e
Years
Aggregated demand
Change in demand for export cash crops with limited dairy activities
• Longitudinal data• Participatory
methods• Key informants
• Systems’ classification
• Selection of farms
• IMPACT & Household model
• Sensitivity analyses
• Participatory appraisals• Recommendation
domains• Toolboxes of
interventions• Farmers / NARS
• Stakeholder workshops• Participatory
appraisals
Participatory modelling
Ecoregion + spatial modeling
Farms
CBA
Case studies
Range of interventions to test
for each system (filtering)
Scenario formulation(Farm and policy
level)
Selection of a fewer range of
options
Site targeting
(Herrero, 1999)
Dissemination &
implementation
Policy-making
Testing options in the field
Spatial patterns
Spatial patterns over time
Spatial patterns over time
Spatial patterns over time
Spatial patterns over time
Equitable
In-equitable
Intensification/extensification over time
In-equitable
Aggregated change in farming systems
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Baseline Equitable In-equitable,no large
scale farms
In-equitable,large scale
farms
Subsistence farmers with limited dairy activities
Farmers with major dairy activities
Intensified crop farmers with limited dairy activities
Export cash crop farmers with limited dairy activities
Export cash crop farmers with major dairy activities
Non-agricultural households
Household model: baseline scenario
period
Observed data
Optimal base
2005-2009
2010-2014 2015-2019 2020-2024
Food crops Maize0.03 ha
= maize0.03 ha
= maize0.03 ha
= maize0.03 ha
= maize0.03 ha
= maize0.03 ha
Food/cash crops Maize, beans0.4 ha
Maize, beans0.5 ha
Maize, beans
0.48 ha
Maize, beans0.4 ha
= Maize, beans0.4 ha
= Maize, beans0.4 ha
Cash crops - - - - - -
Grassland 0.1 ha =0.1 ha
=0.1 ha
=0.1 ha
=0.1 ha
=0.1 ha
Cut and carry 1.93 ha 1.83 ha
1.40 ha
1.12 ha
0.83 ha
0.6 ha
Milk orientation 8 cows: 4 milking
10 cows: 5 milking
8 cows: 4 milking
7 cows: 3.5 milking
5 cows: 2.5 milking
4 cows: 2 milking
Hired labour 477 (46.9%)
34.3 4.9 0 = 0 = 0
Dependency on purchased food/ feed
31% food = cut/ carry
pasture
cut/ carry pasture
cut/ carry pasture
cut/ carry pasture
Under baseline scenario of low growth,dairy activity in this example farm declinesbetween 2005 and 2024
Farmers with major dairy, baseline scenario
Contrast: equitable growth scenario
period
Observed data
Optimal base
2005-2009
2010-2014 2015-2019 2020-2024
Food crops Maize0.03 ha
= maize0.03 ha
= maize0.03 ha
= maize0.03 ha
= maize0.03 ha
= maize0.03 ha
Food/cash crops Maize, beans0.4 ha
Maize, beans0.5 ha
Maize, beans1.3 ha
Maize, beans
1.65 ha
Maize, beans
1.73 ha
= Maize, beans
1.73 ha
Cash crops - - - - - -
Grassland 0.1 ha = 0.1 ha = 0.1 ha = 0.1 ha 0.48 ha 0.93 ha
Cut and carry 1.93 ha 1.83 ha 1.39 ha 1.45 ha 1.48 ha 1.59 ha
Milk orientation 8 cows: 4 milking
10 cows: 5 milking
8 cows: 4 milking
= 8 cows: 4 milking
= 8 cows: 4 milking
= 8 cows: 4 milking
Hired labour 477 (46.9%)
34.3 83 131 142 125
Dependency on purchased food/ feed
31% food = cut/ carry pasture
= cut/ carry pasture
= cut/ carry pasture
= cut/ carry pasture
Farmers with major dairy, equitable scenario
Under equitable scenario of higher growthand land consolidation, pasture and grass fordairy in this example farm increasesbetween 2005 and 2024
Summary of results
• Subsistence farming is likely to decrease in Kenya, even under the less optimistic baseline scenario, shift to more intensive food crops and dairy production
• In all scenarios there is likely to be a shift away from farming to non-agricultural households.
• Only increase in subsistence farming could occur in inequitable scenario, in the less favoured areas.
• Unlike perhaps other parts of Kenya, the highlands of Kenya may not be significantly impacted by climate change.
• These results are only indicative of potential changes under rather simplistic scenarios, and so should not be seen as definitive.
• Their main purpose is to stimulate interest and further development in these types of analytical methods by national institutions.
Lessons learnt
• Discussion tools
• Time-consuming
• Process more important than models
• Policy steering group: Significant interest from policy makers
• Useful to show results along the process, even if partial, not at the end
• Socio-economic impacts as, or more, important than the bio-physical ones
Thank you