towards a 2050 pathway - new zealand parliament · look like between now and 2050. using a...
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for New Zealand
2050 PATHWAYTowards a
A Discussion Paper for GLOBE-NZSEPTEMBER 2017
Paul YoungIndependent consultant
1
Executivesummary..................................................................................................................3
1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................7
1.1 Globalcontext:theParisAgreementandthe2050PathwaysPlatform..................7
1.2 Domesticcontext:GLOBE-NZandNetZeroinNewZealand....................................81.3 Scenarios,pathwaysandstrategies:conceptsandterminology..............................9
1.4 Purposeofthispaper.............................................................................................10
2 ScenariosfromNetZeroinNewZealand.......................................................................112.1 Innovative...............................................................................................................11
2.2 Resourceful.............................................................................................................12
2.3 NetZero2050.........................................................................................................12
2.4 Abroad-bandedindicativepathway:theconcept.................................................12
3 Developingsectoralemissionspaths.............................................................................13
3.1 Generalmethod.....................................................................................................13
3.2 Electricity................................................................................................................14
3.3 Transport................................................................................................................14
3.4 Otherfossilfuels.....................................................................................................17
3.5 Fugitiveemissions..................................................................................................17
3.6 Industrialprocessesandproductuse.....................................................................18
3.7 Agriculture..............................................................................................................18
3.8 Waste.....................................................................................................................20
3.9 Forestry..................................................................................................................20
4 Results............................................................................................................................21
4.1 Sectoralemissionspaths........................................................................................21
4.1.1 Energy.............................................................................................................21
4.1.2 Industrialprocessesandproductuse.............................................................22
4.1.3 Agriculture......................................................................................................26
4.1.4 Waste.............................................................................................................26
4.1.5 Forestry..........................................................................................................26
4.2 Grossandnetemissionspaths...............................................................................29
4.3 AnalysiswithrespecttoNewZealand’s2030target.............................................31
4.4 Beyond2050:gettingtoandsustainingnetzeroemissions..................................32
5 Discussionandrecommendations.................................................................................35
Appendix1:Listofkeydriversandassumptions...................................................................37
2
Figure1:Grossandnetemissionspaths..................................................................................6
Figure2:PathwaysmethodologydevelopedbytheAgriculturalTransformationPathways
Initiative...........................................................................................................................9
Figure3:Vivid'sscenariosandtheirkeycharacteristics........................................................11
Figure4:OverviewofVividEconomics'calculator.................................................................13
Figure5:ElectricitygenerationmixinResourcefulandInnovative.......................................15
Figure6:Batteryelectricvehicle(BEV)shareofnewlyregisteredvehiclesandtotalfleetfor
lightandheavyvehicles.................................................................................................16
Figure7:ElectrificationlevelofenergyendusesintheInnovativeandNetZero2050
scenarios........................................................................................................................16
Figure8:LivestocknumbersintheInnovativeandNetZero2050scenarios........................19
Figure9:Emissionspathsfortop-levelsectors......................................................................23
Figure10:Emissionspathsforenergysub-sectors................................................................24
Figure11:Emissionspathsforforestry..................................................................................25
Figure12:Indicativegrossandnetemissionspaths..............................................................29
Figure13:Netemissionspathto2070...................................................................................33
Figure14:Emissionsbysectorto2070..................................................................................34
Table1:Emissionsprofilesin1990,2014and2050.................................................................5
Table2:Comparisonofforestrycarbonaccountingmethods...............................................28
Table3:Totalgrossandnetemissionspaths.........................................................................30
Table4:Cumulativeemissionsundertheemissionspaths....................................................30
Table5:ListofkeydriversforeachsectorwithassumptionsusedbyVivid.........................37
3
EXECUTIVESUMMARY
UndertheParisAgreement,NewZealandhascommittedtobepartofaglobaleffortto
reachnetzerogreenhousegasemissionsinthesecondhalfofthecentury.In2016,GLOBE-
NZcommissionedeconomicsconsultancyVividEconomicstoconductastudyofNew
Zealand’spotentialtoachievethisgoaldomestically.Vivid’sreport,NetZeroinNewZealand:Scenariostoachievedomesticemissionneutralityinthesecondhalfofthecentury,wasreleasedinMarch2017.Itpresentsfourdistinctscenarios,assnapshotsintheyear
2050.Threeofthesescenarios–Resourceful,InnovativeandNetZero2050–putNew
Zealandontracktothenetzerogoal.
ThispaperbuildsonVivid’sworkbyexploringingreaterdetailwhatthetransitionmight
looklikebetweennowand2050.Usingasector-by-sectorbackcastingapproach,Ihave
soughttocreaterealistictransitionpathsconsistentwithVivid’sscenarios.Together,these
provideabroad-bandedindicativepathwaytowardsdomesticemissionsneutrality,withthe
boundariesdefinedbyResourcefulandNetZero2050.Table1showsthe2050emissions
profileofthosetwoscenarioscomparedwith2014.Thepathwayrangefornetemissionsin
2050is1.8–20.2MtCO2e.
Tofacilitatethiswork,Vividprovidedtheemissionscalculatortheydevelopedtocalculate
theemissionsoutcomesoftheassumptionsunderpinningtheirscenarios.Ianalysedthe
calculatorandVivid’sreporttoidentifythekeydriversofemissionsandcalculationmethods
usedineachsector.Ithendevelopedtrajectoriesforeachindividualdriverbetween2014
and2050,andmodifiedthecalculatoraccordingly.
Theresultingsectoralemissionspathsshowdistinctshapesandratesofchange.This
reflectsdifferentunderlyingfactorssuchasthekeydriversofemissions,currenttrends,and
timeframesfortechnologyadoption.Thesepathsdonotencompassthefullrangeof
possibilitiesforhowthetransitioncouldoccur;forexample,acceleratedordelayedaction
indifferentareas.
TheresultinggrossandnetemissionspathsareshowninFigure1.Bothpeakin2018and
fallthereafter.Thefastestrateofgrossemissionsreductionsoccursinthe2020s,with
assumedgrowthinadoptionofelectricvehiclesandtheintroductionamethanevaccineor
inhibitorsinagriculture.Relativeto2014,thepathsseegrossemissionsreduced10-20per
centby2030and30–53percentby2050.Thankstogrowthincarbonsequestrationfrom
forestry,netemissionscontinuetoreducerapidlyto2050.Relativeto2014,netemissions
are13-25percentlowerby2030and69–97percentlowerby2050.
UndertheParisAgreement,NewZealandhasseta2030emissionstargetof30percent
belowthe2005grossemissionslevel.Thetargetappliestonetemissionsusingthe
proposed“ModifiedKyoto”accountingmethodforforestrysequestrationandemissions.
Forcompliance,thistargetwillbeconvertedintoa“carbonbudget”forthe2021-2030
period.
Comparedtoaprovisionalcarbonbudgetof594MtCO2e,totalgrossemissionsforthe
2021–2030periodrangefrom729–774MtCO2eundertheemissionspathsshown.Totalnet
4
emissionsrangefrom584-629MtCO2e,suggestingthecarbonbudgetcouldbemet
domestically.However,duetodifferencesbetweentheforestryaccountingmethodusedby
VividandthemethodtheNewZealandGovernmentintendstoapplytothe2030target,the
netemissionsquantitiescannotbedirectlycomparedlikethis.
Thispaperalsoextendstheanalysisbeyond2050toexploreifandwhennetzeromightbe
achievedunderthedifferentscenariopaths(Figure1showstheemissionspathsto2070).
Undertheextendedsetofassumptionsused,neitherResourcefulnorInnovativewouldin
factreachnetzeroemissions.Thisisbecausemanycurrentemissionssources(suchaslight
vehiclesandlow-gradeheat)areclosetocompletelydecarbonisedbymid-centuryso
cannotyieldmeaningfulfurtherreductions,whileemissionsfromseveralothersources
(suchasnon-roadtransport)remainflatorgrowing.Duetothecombinedeffectofslowing
reductionsingrossemissionsanddecliningsequestrationfromforestry,netemissionsbegin
toriseagainfromaround2060.EventheNetZero2050scenariowouldonlymanageto
keepnetemissionsbelowzerotemporarily.Thishighlightsproblemswithheavyrelianceon
forestrysequestrationratherthanpermanentgrossemissionsreductions,andtheneedto
explorefurtherlong-termmitigationmeasures.
Theresultshereprovideabroad-bandedindicativepathwaytowardsdomesticemissions
neutrality,whichGLOBE-NZcoulduseforthebasisoffurtherconversationandanalysis.This
indicativepathwayservesasasoundandconsistentstartingpoint,butdoesnotspanthe
fullrangeofpossibilitiesforhowthetransitioncouldoccur.
IconcludewiththefollowingrecommendationstoGLOBE-NZ:
1. Forestrysequestrationestimatesshouldbereviewed.
2. Consideradditionalelementsbeyondemissionslevelsindefiningapathwayto
domesticemissionsneutrality.
3. Continuetoconsiderandexploreemissionsreductionopportunitiesgoingbeyond
thosefeaturedinVivid’sscenarios.
4. Explorethepotentialforinteractivetoolstoassistinfurtherdevelopmentand
communicationofapathwaytodomesticemissionsneutrality.
5
TABLE1:EMISSIONSPROFILESIN1990,2014AND2050
1990 20142050
Resourceful NetZero2050Energy Electricity 3.5 4.2 3.3 0.7
Transport 8.8 14.1 5.8 3.9
Otherfossilfuels 10.2 11.9 8.3 3.0
Fugitives 1.3 2.0 2.8 1.8
Sub-total 23.8 32.1 20.2 9.4Industry Mineral 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1
Chemical 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0
Metal 2.7 2.3 2.5 0.0
HFCs/solvents 0.1 1.6 0.3 0.3
Sub-total 3.6 5.2 4.2 1.4Agriculture Entericfermentation 26.3 28.6 18.7 14.3
Manuremanagement 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.9
Soils,liming,urea 7.3 9.7 8.8 9.5
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sub-total 34.4 39.6 28.5 24.7Waste Land 3.8 3.7 3.3 2.2
Water 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5
Sub-total 4.1 4.1 3.8 2.7
Grossemissions 65.8 81.1 56.6 38.3Ofwhichlonglived(CO2andN2O) 32.4 20.0
Forestry/LULUCF -28.9 -24.4 -36.4 -36.5
Netemissions 36.9 56.7 20.2 1.8Ofwhichlonglived(CO2andN2O) 3.7 20.2 -4.0 -16.5
Note: Allvaluesareroundedtoonedecimalplace,sototalsdonotallsumcorrectly.
6
FIGURE1:GROSSANDNETEMISSIONSPATHS
7
1 INTRODUCTION1.1 GLOBALCONTEXT:THEPARISAGREEMENTANDTHE2050PATHWAYS
PLATFORMTheworldhasbegunonajourneytoanetzeroemissionsfuturetoaddressthegravethreat
thatclimatechangeposestolifeonEarth.TheParisAgreement,nowratifiedby160
countriesincludingNewZealand,commitstheworldto“holdingtheincreaseintheglobal
averagetemperaturetowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevelsandpursuingeffortsto
limitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels”.Inordertomeetthis
globaltemperaturegoal,theAgreementaimsto“reachglobalpeakingofemissionsassoon
aspossible”andto“achieveabalancebetweenanthropogenicemissionsbysourcesand
removalsbysinksofgreenhousegasesinthesecondhalfofthiscentury”�
Creatinganetzeroemissionsworldmeanstransformationalchangetoglobalenergyand
foodsystems.Thisrequiresproactiveandcomprehensivelong-termplanningtowardsthe
endgoal.TheParisAgreementrecognisesthisneedinArticle4.19,whichstates:
AllPartiesshouldstrivetoformulateandcommunicatelong-termlowgreenhousegasemissiondevelopmentstrategies,mindfulofArticle2takingintoaccounttheircommonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilitiesandrespectivecapabilities,inthelightofdifferentnationalcircumstances.
Sofar,France,Benin,theUnitedStates,Mexico,GermanyandCanadahaveformally
communicatedlong-termstrategiesthroughtheUN.1NewZealandisexpectedtodosoby
2020.2
AtCOP22inMarrakechin2016,agroupofcountriesandotheractorslauncheda
complementaryinitiativecalledthe2050PathwaysPlatform.Thelaunchannouncement
describesitasfollows:3
Theplatformwillsupportcountriesseekingtodeveloplong-term,deepdecarbonizationstrategies,includingthroughthesharingofresources(finance,capacitybuilding),knowledgeandexperiences.Itwillalsobuildabroaderconstellationofcities,states,andcompaniesengagedinlong-termlow-emissionsplanningoftheirown,andinsupportofthenationalstrategies.Essentially,itwillbeaspaceforcollectiveproblem-solving.
2050pathwaysareawaytobackcastandextrapolatefromthelong-termgoalofreachingthebalancebetweenthesourcesandsinksofGHGemissions,andlookat
1http://unfccc.int/focus/long-term_strategies/items/9971.php
2NewZealandGovernment.2016.ParisAgreementNationalInterestAnalysis.Wellington:NewZealand
Government.3http://newsroom.unfccc.int/media/791675/2050-pathway-announcement-finalclean-3.pdf
8
thewaysinwhichwecangrowoureconomiesandbusinesses,andmeetourcitizensandcustomer’sneedswithintheconstraintsofthedeepGHGemissionreductionsbymainstreamingclimateactionswithinsocio-economicdevelopmentstrategies.
NewZealandislistedasoneofthe22countriesto“havestartedorbeabouttostarta
processofpreparinga2050pathway”.
1.2 DOMESTICCONTEXT:GLOBE-NZANDNETZEROINNEWZEALANDGLOBENewZealand(GLOBE-NZ)isacross-partyworkinggroupestablishedinOctober2015
thatinvolvesMembersofParliamentfromallparties.GLOBE-NZisachapteroftheGlobal
LegislatorsOrganisationforaBalancedEnvironment(GLOBE).Theinternational
organisationbringstogetherparliamentariansfromover80countries,withafocuson
implementinglawsinpursuitofsustainabledevelopment.GLOBE-NZ’spurposesinclude:
“Thepromotionofglobal,regionalandnationalpolicyprocessesforclimateand
environmentalprotection”;and“Thepromotionofacross-partydiscussionandcooperation
ontheenvironment,climateprotectionandnatureconservation,aswellassustainable
development.”4
GLOBE-NZcommissionedeconomicsconsultancyVividEconomics(referredtohenceforth
simplyas“Vivid”)toconductastudyofNewZealand’spotentialtoachievenetzero
emissions.Vivid’sreport,NetZeroinNewZealand:Scenariostoachievedomesticemissionneutralityinthesecondhalfofthecentury,wasreleasedinMarch2017.Thisreportis,in
Vivid’sownwords,“oneofthefirstattemptstoapplyscenarioanalysisacrosstheNew
Zealandeconomy,coveringbothlandandenergy,tohelpilluminatelong-termlow-emission
pathways”.Itidentifiesandpresentsanalysisonfourscenarios,threeofwhichare
consistentwiththegoalofnetzeroemissionsinthesecondhalfofthecentury.The
scenariosarepresentedassnapshotsintheyear2050,withthetrajectorybetweennow
andthenundefined.
InJuly2017,GLOBE-NZagreedonaStatementofCollaborativePurpose.Thisstatement
includesthefollowingnextstepstobuildonVivid’swork:
• Accept,asthebasisfordiscussionastotheirrespectivemerits,theInnovativeandResourcefulscenariosidentifiedforNewZealand;andtheNetZero2050scenarioasaseriousaspirationalgoal;
• Plantodevelop,throughfurtherexpertadvice,anindicativepathway(boundedbyquantitativeranges)towardsdomesticemissionsneutrality,havingregardtotheReport’sconclusionsandrecommendations;
• Onthebasisofsuchanindicativepathwayandatanappropriatetime,commenceadialoguewithinourgrouponpolicymeasures,withanappropriatecombinationofmarket,regulatoryandeducationalmeasures,toensureatimelyandjusttransitiontoanet-zerooralow-carboneconomyby2050.
4GLOBENewZealand.2017.StatementofCollaborativePurpose.
9
1.3 SCENARIOS,PATHWAYSANDSTRATEGIES:CONCEPTSANDTERMINOLOGY
Whatexactlyisa‘pathway’inthecontextofacountry’sclimatechangeresponse?Itmay
helptotryandclarifythisandotherkeytermsandconcepts.
‘Scenario’hasafairlypreciseandcommonlyheldmeaning.Vividadoptsthedefinitionused
bytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeandothers:“aplausibledescriptionof
howthefuturemaydevelopbasedonacoherentandinternallyconsistentsetof
assumptionsaboutkeyrelationshipsanddrivingforces”.
‘Pathway’isamoreambiguousanddivergentterm.Generally,pathwaysfocusontransition
overtimeandmaycontaindynamicandadaptiveelements(whereasascenariotendstobe
staticandrigid).Apathwaymighthaveanumberofpotentialoutcomesdependingonhow
optionsdevelopovertime.Finally,whereasscenariostendtofocuson‘what’(tangible
changeswithinthesystemandtheconsequencesofthosechanges),pathwaystendtoalso
lookat‘how’(approachestodrivethedesiredchangesandmonitorprogress).
Therelationshipbetweenapathwayandastrategyisunclear;itseemsthatthesetermsare
somewhatoverlappingandoftenusedinterchangeably.
TheAgriculturalTransformationPathwaysInitiative(ATPi)developstoolkitsforandworks
withgovernmentstobuildnationalpathwaysalignedwiththeSustainableDevelopment
Goals.5Figure2isadiagramillustratingtheATPigeneralmethodologicalframework.Thisis
aniterativeprocesstodevelopapathwayformovingfromthepresenttoadesiredfuture.
Scenarioanalysisplaysakeyroleinthisprocess.
FIGURE2:PATHWAYSMETHODOLOGYDEVELOPEDBYTHEAGRICULTURALTRANSFORMATIONPATHWAYSINITIATIVE
Source: Schwoob,M.-H.etal.2016.
5Schwoob,M.-H.etal.2016.AgriculturalTransformationPathwaysInitiative-Summary,IDDRI&Rothamsted
Research.
10
BasedonabriefassessmentoftheATPimethodologyandsomeofthelong-termlow
emissiondevelopmentstrategiesthathavebeencommunicatedtotheUN,a2050pathway
forNewZealandmighteitherincludeorsitalongsideelementssuchas:
• Goals;
• Guidingprinciples;
• Targetsandmilestones(e.g.sectoralemissionstarget);
• Keyindicators(potentiallyintheformofadashboard);
• Identificationofenablingconditions(e.g.technologydevelopments)andkey
decisionpoints;
• Identificationofbarrierstoandleversforchange;
• Alearningandevaluationprocess.
Afurtherideaworthconsiderationistodeveloptransformativepathwaysforeachsector,
withinanoverarchingframeworkandnationalpathway.6Suchsectoralpathwayscould
combineemissionstargetswithothergoalsandprinciplestoformabroadervisionand
integratedstrategy.
1.4 PURPOSEOFTHISPAPER
Vivid’sNetZeroinNewZealandreportprovidesafoundationfordevelopinganational2050pathway.ThispaperbuildsonVivid’sworkbyexploringingreaterdetailwhatthetransition
mightlooklikebetweenNewZealandtodayandthescenariosfor2050.
Themainobjectivewastodevelopabroad-bandedindicativepathwaythatspansthethree
scenariosthatplaceNewZealandontracktonetzeroemissionsinthesecondhalfofthe
century.Acknowledgingtheabovediscussionontherangeofelementsthatmayformpart
ofa2050pathway,thispaperismorenarrowlyfocusedontheemissionspath.
Thepaperbeginswithabriefoverviewofthethreescenariosused.Itthendetails,sectorby
sector,themethodandassumptionsusedtodevelopplausibletrajectoriesforvarious
driversofemissionsbetween2014and2050.Itthenpresentsandanalysesindicative
emissionspathsbysectorandforNewZealandasawhole.Itconcludeswith
recommendationsforfurtherwork.
6Germany’sClimateActionPlan2050usesanapproachlikethis.
Transformationpathwaysdonotonlyprovideaggregateendtargets(suchasaverageemissionsreduction),butalsotranslateintoaconcreteimageofwhatfutureactivityandsocietymightlooklike.Theconsistencyanddesirabilityofsuchavisioncanthenbediscussedandquestioned,andadetailedsequenceoffeasibleactionsdeveloped.–AgriculturalTransformPathwaysInitiative(2016)
11
2 SCENARIOSFROMNETZEROINNEWZEALAND
VividEconomicsdevelopedfourscenariosforitsreport,NetZeroinNewZealand.AsFigure3shows,thesedifferalongtwokeydimensions:thedegreeoftechnologicalimprovement,
andland-usepatterns.Togetontracktonetzeroemissionsinthesecondhalfofthe
century,itisnecessarytomovetowardsthetop-rightcornerofthisdiagram.Asitsname
makesclear,theOffTrackNZscenariodoesnotmeetthatconditionanditistherefore
excludedfromfurtheranalysisinthispaper.
2.1 INNOVATIVE
TheInnovativescenarioenvisagesafuturewheretechnologicaladvancesintheenergyand
agriculturesectorsarestrongandNewZealandtakesmajoradvantageofthesethroughfast
adoption.Thekeychangesitseesby2050include:widespreadelectrificationofbothand
lightandheavyvehicles,andofheatandindustrialenergyuse;analmostcompletely
renewableelectricitysystem,aidedbyimprovementsinenergystorageandgridflexibility;
substantialfreightmodeshiftfromroadtorail;energyefficiencygains;lowemissions
farmingpractices;andthesuccessfuldevelopmentandadoptionofamethanevaccinefor
ruminantlivestock.Alongsidethis,adiversificationinlandusepatternsoccursinfavourof
moreforestryandhorticulture,withareductioninstocknumberscomparedwithtoday.
FIGURE3:VIVID'SSCENARIOSANDTHEIRKEYCHARACTERISTICS
Source: VividEconomics,2017.
12
2.2 RESOURCEFUL
InResourceful,technologicalimprovementsareslowerandmoremodest.Comparedwith
Innovative,lessprogressismadeinseveralareasincludingvehicleandheatelectrification,
renewableelectricity,andfreightmodeshift.Someofthemitigationopportunitiesin
Innovative–includingthemethanevaccineandelectrificationofhightemperatureheat–
arenotavailableatallby2050.Tocompensateforthis,Resourcefulseesamoreradical
shifttowardsforestry,plantingthemaximumamountoflandgenerallydeemedsuitableby
2050.However,livestocknumbersarealsohigherinResourcefuldue–enabledbyahigher
stockingratefordairy.
2.3 NETZERO2050
NetZero2050combinesthetechnologicaladvancesofInnovativewiththelanduse
patternsofResourceful.Inaddition,itassumescarbonneutralityin,ortheclosureof,some
emissions-intensiveindustries(steelandaluminummanufacturingandpetroleumrefining).7
Togetherthismakesahigherambitionscenariothatdrivesnetemissionsclosetozeroby
2050.NetZero2050wasnotconsideredindetailbyVivid,andthereportdidnotprovide
emissionsdata,givenitssimilaritiestoelementsoftheotherscenarios.
2.4 ABROAD-BANDEDINDICATIVEPATHWAY:THECONCEPT
Inthispaper,ItaketheResourcefulandNetZero2050scenariostodefinetheboundsofa
“broad-bandedindicativepathway”towardsnetzeroemissionsinthesecondhalfofthe
century.Theanalysisandgraphsinthefollowingchapterstreateachscenarioindividually,
butconceptuallywecanthinkoftheseasspanningarangeofpotentialpathsinbetween
theextremes.8
7Theindustryclosureassumptionwasalsousedasasensitivitycasetocreate“lowindustry”variationsofthe
otherscenarios.8Onepointofcautionisthatifweweretocombinethehigherendofthegrossemissionsrange(Resourceful)
withthelowerendoftheforestryrange(Innovative),thiswouldcreateanewscenariowithnetemissions
outsideoftherangespannedbyVivid’sscenarios.Thisneedstobetakenintoaccountifcombiningnumbers
fromdifferentsectors.
13
3 DEVELOPINGSECTORALEMISSIONSPATHS
InordertodevelopcredibleemissionspathsconsistentwithVivid’sscenarios,itisnecessary
toanalyseeachsectorindividually.Eachsectorhasdistinctcharacteristics,suchasthekey
driversofemissions;technologicalandsocioeconomicdynamics;andtypicalassetlifetimes
andturnoverrates.Thesefactorscanaffectthetimingofemissionsreductionsandthusthe
shapeofthecurvebetweennowand2050.
Thischapterpresentsthegeneralmethodusedtodevelopsectoralpathsconsistentwith
Vivid’sscenarios,followedbythespecificapproachusedforeachsector.
3.1 GENERALMETHOD
Tofacilitatethiswork,theVividteamprovidedthecalculatortooltheydevelopedto
calculatetheemissionsoutcomesoftheassumptionsunderpinningtheirscenarios.The
calculatorisdescribedintheNetZeroinNewZealandtechnicalreportandsummarisedin
theschematicbelow(Figure4).
Ianalysedthecalculatorandthetechnicalreporttoidentifythekeydrivers9andcalculation
methodsusedineachsector.Ithendevelopedtrajectoriesforeachindividualdriver
between2014and2050,aimingtobeasrealisticaspossible.Thiswasdonecasebycase
dependingon:thelogicandexternalsourcesusedbyVivid;knowledgeofthedynamicsof
thedriverinquestion;andinformationonrecenttrends.Finally,Imodifiedthecalculator
spreadsheetaccordinglytoproducethecompleteemissionstimeseriesforeachsector.
FIGURE4:OVERVIEWOFVIVIDECONOMICS'CALCULATOR
Source: VividEconomics,2017.
9Someexamplesofdriversarelivestocknumbers(inagriculture),fuelefficiency(intransport)and
electrificationlevel(intransportandheat).Table5listsalldriversalongwithVivid’sscenarioassumptions.
14
3.2 ELECTRICITY
Thekeydriversofelectricityemissionsare:electricitydemand,generationmix,andthe
emissionsintensityofgeothermalgeneration.Table5showsVivid’sassumptionsforthese
andallotherdriversindetail.
Vividsourcedthe2050generationmixinResourcefuldirectlyfromoneoftheElectricity
DemandandGenerationScenariospublishedbyMBIE.10Theyconstructedthegeneration
mixinInnovativetobesimilar,withthemaindifferencebeingfurtherreductionsincoaland
gasreplacedwithwind.TomaintainconsistencywiththesourcesofVivid’sassumptions,in
ResourcefulIusedthecompletetimeseriesfromMBIE’sscenario.11InInnovative,I
modifiedthisbyeliminatingcoalgenerationfrom2023andreducingthegasgeneration
proportionlinearlyfrom2025to2035.Theresultinggenerationmixesto2050areshownin
Figure5.
AnnualelectricitydemandwascalculatedasdescribedinTable5.Forgeothermalemissions
intensity,andadditionalenergyefficiencyimprovementsinInnovative,Iusedanannual
rateofchangeasperVivid’sdescription.
3.3 TRANSPORT
Thetransportsectorcoversalldomestictransportation(road,rail,seaandair)butexcludes
internationalflightsandshipping.Thekeydriversoftransportemissionsare:traveldemand,
vehicleormodeefficiencies,modalshift,andvehicleelectrification.
Formostofthesedrivers,Iusedafixedannualpercentagerateofchange.Forfreightmode
shift,Iusedalineartrajectory.
Vehicleelectrificationwasmodelleddifferently.Idevelopedasimplefleetmodeltocreate
plausibletrajectoriesforbatteryelectricvehicle(BEV)uptakeconsistentwithVivid’s
assumedlevelsin2050.Themodelassumedfixedannualquantitiesofvehiclesenteringand
exitingthefleet,calibratedtoaveragevaluesoverthelast10-15years.Foreachscenario,I
fittedanidealized“S-curve”fortheEVmarketshare(ofvehiclesenteringthefleet)inorder
tomatchtheapproximatemarketsharein2016andtheassumedfleetelectrificationlevel
in2050.12
Thismodelisnecessarilysimple,butIwouldexpectittogiverealisticresultsforthelight
vehiclefleet.However,itislessrealisticforheavyvehiclesandresultsshouldonlybetaken
asbroadlyindicative.13Also,Ihavenotconsidereddisruptivescenarioswhere–dueto
changesintechnologies,behavioursandpolicies–vehicleturnoveracceleratesand/ornew
10GlobalLowCarbonscenarioisthescenarioused.
11Imodifiedthisslightlybyassumingafixedpercentageofgasgenerationfrom2035onward.
12Strictlyspeakingthisisatravel-weightedelectrificationlevel,oritassumesthatallvehiclesaretravellingthe
samedistanceeachyear.13Amorerealisticuptakemodelforheavyvehicleswould,forexample,disaggregatethefleetbysizeand/or
typicalusagecycle,toidentifythetypesofvehiclesmorereadilyelectrified.
15
ownershipmodelsdominate.Themodelthereforerepresentsaconservativeviewof
change.
TheresultingtrajectoriesarepresentedinFigure6.Thisshowsthat,underthestated
assumptions,alllightvehiclesenteringthefleetwouldneedtobebatteryelectricsby
around2035inInnovativeandaround2040inResourceful.Allheavyvehiclesenteringthe
fleetwouldalsoneedtobeelectricbefore2045inInnovative(subjecttotheabove
caveats).
FIGURE5:ELECTRICITYGENERATIONMIXINRESOURCEFUL(TOP)ANDINNOVATIVE(BOTTOM)
16
FIGURE6:BATTERYELECTRICVEHICLE(BEV)SHAREOFNEWLYREGISTEREDVEHICLESANDTOTALFLEETFORLIGHTVEHICLES(TOP)ANDHEAVYVEHICLES(BOTTOM)
FIGURE7:ELECTRIFICATIONLEVELOFENERGYENDUSESINTHEINNOVATIVEANDNETZERO2050SCENARIOS
17
3.4 OTHERFOSSILFUELS
“Otherfossilfuels”encompassesallcombustionoffuelsforenergyoutsideoftheelectricity
andtransportsectors.Thevastmajorityofthisistoproduceheatforuseinbuildingsand
industry.Thekeydriversofemissionsare:energydemand(includingefficiencygains);
electrification;andfuelswitchingtobiomass.
AnnualenergydemandiscalculatedusingabaselinescenariofromMBIEandfeedbacks
withothersectors,asdescribedinTable5.Ihaveusedfixedannualenergyefficiency
improvementrateswhereapplicable.
Ihaveassumedalinearincreaseintheelectrificationlevel,butwithdifferentstartdatesfor
thedifferentenergyenduses.Thelevelbeginsincreasingimmediatelyforlow-gradeheat,
from2020formedium-gradeheat,andfrom2030forhigh-gradeheatandmobilemotive
power.Figure7showstheresultingelectrificationpathsinInnovative.14
TheseassumptionsaimtoreflectVivid’sassessmentthatelectrificationofhigh-gradeheat
andoff-roadvehiclesiscurrentlyhighcostanddependentontechnologybreakthroughs.
Ideally,thepathswouldtakeintoaccountinformationsuchasassetlifetimesand
replacementtimetables.Amoresophisticatedtreatmentwasnotpossibleduetotime
constraints,andwouldlikelybechallengingduetoalackofdatainthisarea.
Vividassumedthatuptakeofbioenergyistargetedsolelyatmedium-gradeheatinthepulp,
paper,woodandagriculturalprocessingindustries.HereIhaveassumedlineargrowthin
uptakefrom2014.
3.5 FUGITIVEEMISSIONS
FugitiveemissionsinNewZealandresultmainlyfromnaturalgasproductionand
distribution,useofgeothermalenergyandcoalmining.Thekeydriversaregeothermal
energyuseandemissionsintensity;andlevelsofnaturalgasproduction,oilrefiningand
coalmining.
Geothermalenergyuseiscalculatedfromotherassumptions,andIuseaconstantannual
rateofemissionsintensityimprovement.
Emissionsfromoilrefiningandcoalminingarescaledwiththelevelofindustrialactivity
(seeSection3.6).Coalminingisassumedtobelinkedtoiron&steelproduction.
Vividassumedthatemissionsfromnaturalgasproductionscaledwiththebaselinenon-
electricalenergydemand.Thisseemstoignorethesubstantialelectrificationofheatinthe
scenarios,whichwouldpresumablyreducenaturalgasusagebelowthebaselinelevel.
However,IhavekeptVivid’sassumptionandextendedthisoverthecompletetimeseries
14Aluminiummanufacturingandironandsteelmanufacturingarenotshownastheseareheldconstantat
100%and0%electrification,respectively.
18
3.6 INDUSTRIALPROCESSESANDPRODUCTUSE
Thissectorcoversallnon-combustionemissionsintheproductionofminerals(e.g.cement
andlime),chemicals(e.g.ammoniaandmethanol),andmetals(e.g.aluminium,ironand
steel).Italsoincludesuseofindustrialgases(mainlyhydrofluorocarbons,HFCs)as
refrigerantsandsolvents.Thekeydriversofemissionsarelevelsofindustrialactivity,
processefficiency,andlevelofHFCuse.
Vividassumedthatmineralproductionscaleswithpopulationgrowth,whileproductionof
chemicalsandmetalsscaleswithbaselinenon-electricalenergydemand.Iextendedthe
sameassumptionoverthewholetimeseries.
Thechemicalandmetalindustriesareassumedtoceaseoperatingsometimebefore2050in
NetZero2050(andinthe“lowindustry”variationsoftheotherscenarios).Thetimingof
potentialclosuresiscompletelyunknown,buthereIhaveassumedthisdoesnotoccur
before2030.Ihaveusedasimplelinearphaseoutofactivityintheaffectedindustries
between2030and2050.Inreality,thetrajectorywouldbe“lumpy”givenwearedealing
withasmallnumberofreasonablylargefirms.Thelinearphaseoutshouldbetakenasa
stylisedorsmoothedapproximation.
OnHFCs,NewZealandisoneof197countriesthatsigneduptophasethesedown
significantlyundertheKigaliAmendmenttotheMontrealProtocol.InMay2017,theNew
ZealandGovernmentproposedandconsultedonadetailedphase-downtimetablefrom
2019to2037tobesetinregulation.15Ihaveusedthisexacttimetable,withalinear
extensionafter2037tomeetVivid’s2050value.
3.7 AGRICULTURE
Thekeydriversofagriculturalemissionsare:livestocknumbers,productionperanimal,and
emissionsintensityimprovementsthroughbetterpracticeandadoptionofnew
technologies.16
Theagriculturesectorhasundergoneverysignificantchangesoverrecentdecades,ascan
beseeninthechangeinlivestocknumbers.Since1995,sheepandbeefcowpopulations
havefallenbyover40%andover30%respectively,whilethedairycowpopulationhas
grownbyaround60%.ThereductionindairycownumbersinVivid’sscenariosisthereforea
significantreversalofthepresenttrend.
Totrytoreflecttheinertiabehindthegrowthindairycownumbers,Ifittedcurvesthat
smoothlytransitionfromlineargrowthtoanexponentialdecline.Thetimingandmagnitude
ofthepeakdependsontheinitialgrowthrate(estimatedat3.3%)andthescenarios’2050
values.
15MinistryfortheEnvironment.2017.NewZealand’sphasedownofhydrofluorocarbonstoratifytheKigali
AmendmenttotheMontrealProtocolandassociatedsupportingmeasures:Consultationdocument.Wellington:MinistryfortheEnvironment.16Inthecalculator,stockingratedoesnotaffecttheemissionsfromagriculture,asstocknumbersarefixed(it
onlyaffectslandavailableforforestry).
19
ThelivestocknumbertrajectoriesforInnovativeareshowninFigure8,alongwithhistorical
datasince1990.Here,dairycownumberspeakataround7.7millionin2024(a15%
increasefrom2014).InResourceful,thepeakisslightlyhigherandlater(7.9millionin
2026).Ifaslowerrateofreductionweredesired,thiswouldrequireanearlierand/orlower
peak.
Forsheepandbeefpopulations,theaveragerateofreductionimpliedbyVivid’s2050
assumptionsisactuallyslowerthanwhathasoccurredoverthelastfivetotenyears.I
thereforesimplyusedalinearreductionfrom2014to2050.
AsVivid’sscenariosandcalculatortoolarecalibratedtoa2014baseyear,Ihaveoptedto
projectforwardfrom2014forconsistency.Morerecentdataarenowavailableforlivestock
numbers;IhaveincludedtheseinFigure8.Dairycownumbersfellby3.2%in2015dueto
droughtandwerestill1.2%lowerin2016comparedto2014.Sheepandbeefnumbersare
alsotrackingbelowallscenariotrajectories.Wecannotdeducemuchfromvolatileshort-
termmovementslikethis.However,inthewidercontext,includingthegrowing
acknowledgementofenvironmentallimitsondairyfarming,thesetrajectoriesmaybe
conservative.
Forimprovementsinproductivityandemissionsintensity,Ihavesimplyassumedlinear
changebetween2014and2050,exceptinthecaseofamethanevaccineorinhibitor.Ihave
assumedthatthesetechnologiesbecomeavailableandarephasedinfrom2020,reaching
themaximumadoptionratein2030.ThisisthesameassumptionusedbyReisingerand
ClarkinthestudyonwhichVividbaseditsagriculturescenarios.17
FIGURE8:LIVESTOCKNUMBERSINTHEINNOVATIVEANDNETZERO2050SCENARIOS
17Reisinger,A.andH.Clark.2016.ModellingAgriculture’sContributiontoNewZealand’sContributiontothe
Post-2020Agreement.Wellington:MinistryforPrimaryIndustries.
20
3.8 WASTE
Wastesectoremissionsarisefrommunicipalsolidwaste,constructionanddemolition
waste,unmanagedlandfills(includingfarmdumps),andwastewater.Thekeydriversare:
population;wastequantityanddiversionrates;andemissionsintensities(accountingfor
methanecapture).
IusedannualpopulationprojectionsfromStatisticsNZ,andlinearchangeinallotherdrivers
exceptforemissionsintensity.Wasteemissionshavebeensteadilydecreasing,thanksin
largeparttotherateofmethanecaptureatmunicipallandfillsdoublingsince2005.18Using
alinearreductioninemissionsintensityfrom2014toVivid’s2050valuesledtoashort-term
increaseinwasteemissionsinResourceful,whichseemsunlikelytooccur.Instead,I
assumedthatemissionsintensityreducedby3%perannumupuntilthescenario’s2050
assumptionwasreached,fromwhichpointonitwasheldconstant.
3.9 FORESTRY
Forestrysequesterscarboninthetreesandonthelandwheretheyaregrowing.If
harvested,someofthesequesteredcarbonremainsstoredinharvestedwoodproducts
(HWPs).Emissionsoccurupondeforestationorharvest,andovertimeasHWPsareburntor
disposedof.19Generally,Iusethesimpleterm‘forestryemissions’torefertothenetsumof
emissionsandsequestration.20Inthescenariosconsidered,forestryemissionsarealways
netnegative.
Thekeydriversofforestryemissionsare:plantingratesofexoticandnativespecies;
harvestinganddeforestation;andthemixofend-usesfromharvestedwood(e.g.hardwood
products,paperandbiofuels).
Forestryemissionsinagivenyear,suchas2050,dependontheamountandtimingof
plantingoverthelastseveraldecades.Therefore,unlikeinothersectors,Vividdeveloped
specifictrajectoriesfornewplantingsandforproductionofHWPs,andcalculatedannual
emissionsto2100.However,Vivid’scalculationexcludedsequestrationfromforests
establishedbefore2015.Underthechosenaccountingmethod(“averaging”),thismakesno
differencetoreportedforestryemissionsin2050,butitdoesaffecttheearlieryears.To
addressthis,Iextendedtheforestrycalculationtostartfrom1990,makingitsuitabletouse
forthewholetimeseries.
Carbonaccountingforforestryiscomplexand–particularlyforHWPs–subjectto
considerableuncertainty.Multipledifferentaccountingmethodsexist,andthechoicecan
havealargeimpactonreportedemissionsvaluesinaparticularyear.Theseaccounting
issuesarediscussedfurtherinBox1onp.27.
18Calculatedfromnationalgreenhousegasinventorydata.
19HWPsaremodelledusingadecayfunction.
20Sequestrationisreferredtoas“removals”innationalgreenhousegasinventoryreports.
21
4 RESULTS
4.1 SECTORALEMISSIONSPATHS
Thesectoralemissionspathsarepresentedinthegraphsthatfollowonpages23–25.Figure
9showsemissionspathsforthetop-levelsectors,exceptforforestry.Figure10shows
emissionspathsforthesub-sectorswithinenergy.Figure11showsemissionspathsfor
forestry.
Notethat:
• The“lowindustry”scenariovariationsarelabelledwithan“L”andshownwith
dashedlinesingraphs;
• IngraphswherethelineforInnovativeisnotvisible,itisidenticaltoNetZero2050;
• Theblackcrossesshowemissionsin2014and2015accordingtothe2017national
inventory(publishedafterVivid’sreport).Duetoongoingrevisionofdataand
updatestomethodology,the2014valuesdifferfromthepreviousyear’sinventory
insomecases.
4.1.1 ENERGY
Totalemissionsfromtheenergysectorgrowslightlyto2018andthenbegintofall.Thepace
ofreductionquickensaround2023andthegapbetweenResourcefulandInnovative/Net
Zero2050beginstoemerge.Thereisalargespreadby2050,withenergyemissionsinNet
Zero2050aroundhalfwhattheyareinResourceful.
Figure10providesmoreinsightonthechangeshappeningwithintheenergysector.
Electricity21
Electricityemissionsexhibitashort-termincreaseduetoasurgeinfossilgenerationfrom
2016–19,beforefalling.22TheydonotfallfarinResourceful,andinfactbegintogrowagain
after2025asprogressinthegenerationmixslowsandthenstallsat91%renewable.In
Innovative,emissionscontinuetofalluntilthegenerationmixreaches98%renewable,
assumedtohappenin2035.
Transport
Inallscenarios,transportemissionsplateauuntilaround2020andbeginreducingvisibly
afterthat.Therateofreductionbeginstoslowafterthepointwhenallvehiclesenteringthe
fleetareelectric(around2035and2040forInnovativeandResourcefulrespectively).
Emissionsfromheavyvehiclesdonotpeakuntilaround2030inInnovativeand2040in
Resourceful.In2050,combinedfreightemissions(fromheavyvehicles,railandsea
transport)areonly16%lowerthanin2014underInnovative,and21%higherunder
21Notethatbyconvention,emissionsfromgeothermalgenerationarereportedunderfugitiveemissions
ratherthanelectricity.22TheseprojectionsaretakenfromascenariopublishedbyMBIE(seeSection3.2).
22
Resourceful.Emissionsfromdomesticairtravelareapproximatelyflatinallcasesdespite
strongdemandgrowth(consistentwithrecenttrends).
Otherfossilfuels
Emissionsfromheatandotherfossilfuelcombustionalsoplateauuntilaround2020before
startingtofall.Reductionscomemostlyfromtheagriculturalprocessingindustriesin
Resourceful–especiallydairy,whichisclosetodecarbonisedby2050.InInnovative,there
arestrongerreductionsacrossallindustrycategories–particularlyinpetroleumand
chemicals,althoughthisisstillthelargestemitterin2050.InNetZero2050,theadditional
emissionsreductionsfrom2030–50areduetotheclosureofpetroleumandchemicals,and
primarymetalmanufacturingindustries.23
Fugitiveemissions
Fugitiveemissions(whichincludethosefromgeothermalelectricitygeneration)continueto
growoutto2050inboththeResourcefulandInnovativescenarios.Hencewhilethesearea
smallproportionofenergyemissionstoday,theybecomemoresignificantovertimein
thesescenarios(makinguproughly15-20%oftotalenergyemissionsin2050).Thegrowth
comesalmostentirelyfromincreaseduseofgeothermalenergy,whileemissionsfromoil&
gasandcoalminingremainsteady.InInnovative,assumedimprovementsintheemissions
intensityofgeothermalgenerationreducethegrowthsignificantly,butthereisstillanet
increase.InNetZero2050,additionalreductionscomefromclosureofoilrefiningandcoal
mines.
4.1.2 INDUSTRIALPROCESSESANDPRODUCTUSE
Theindustrialprocessesandproductuseemissionspathsarenearlyidenticalfor
ResourcefulandInnovative.Emissionsplateaufortherestofthisdecade,thenreduce
throughthe2020s,beforeslowlycreepingupagainafter2035.
Thereductionsinthissectorareentirelyfromthephaseoutofhydrofluorocarbongases
(HFCs)usedasrefrigerants.Processemissionsfromaluminium,steelandchemical
productionarevirtuallyflat,whileemissionsfrommineralproduction(mostlycementand
lime)growwithpopulation(35%growthto2050).
InNetZero2050,theclosureofmetalandchemicalindustriesleadstoadrasticemissions
reduction.Toreiterate,inrealitythiswouldhappenwithabruptstepchanges,unlikethe
smoothemissionpathusedhere.
23AsdiscussedinSection3.6,Ihaveusedasimplelineardecreasefrom2030–50torepresenttheindustry
closures.
23
FIGURE9:EMISSIONSPATHSFORTOP-LEVELSECTORS
24
FIGURE10:EMISSIONSPATHSFORENERGYSUB-SECTORS
25
FIGURE11:EMISSIONSPATHSFORFORESTRY
26
4.1.3 AGRICULTURE
Agriculturalemissionscontinuerisingto2020onthebackoffurthergrowthinthenational
dairyherd.Atthispoint,thephase-inofamethanevaccineorinhibitorisassumedtobegin
(seeSection3.7),causingemissionstopeakinspiteofthedairyherdstillgrowing.24In
Innovative,theadoptionofthevaccineleadstoespeciallyrapidemissionsreductions
throughthe2020s.Bothscenariosthenseeroughlylinearemissionsreductionsafter2030.
Thescenariospreadin2050ismuchsmallerherethanintheenergysector.
Theemissionsreductionsineitherscenariocomealmostentirelyfromentericfermentation.
Reductionsinnitrousoxideemissionsfromanimalwastearepartiallyoffsetbyhigher
emissionsfromhorticulture(forwhichlandusedoublesinResourcefulandquadruplesin
Innovative).Byfarmtype,theshareofemissionsfromdairyfarmingincreasesintheshort-
term,butfallsbacktoasimilarleveltotodayby2050.
4.1.4 WASTE
WasteistheonesectorinwhichNewZealand’semissionsarecurrentlyonadownward
trend.Thiscontinuesintheemissionspaths,thoughtherateofreductionactuallyslows
comparedtorecentyears(eveninInnovative).EmissionsareclosetoflatinResourceful.
Partofthereasonisthatreductionsinsolidwasteemissionsarepartiallyoffsetbyan
increasefromwastewater.Wastewateremissionshavebeennearlyflatforthelast20
years,sothegrowththatoccursinthescenariosisquestionable.
Inbothscenarios,moreoftheemissionsreductionscomefromunmanagedwastesitesthan
frommunicipalwaste.Thelatteraccountsforonly22%oftotalsolidwasteemissionsin
2014,reducingto13%in2050inInnovative.
4.1.5 FORESTRY
Tounderstandtheforestryemissionspaths,itisimportanttounderstandtheaccounting
methodthatVividused.ThisdiffersfromthemethodusedinNewZealand’sgreenhousegas
inventory,whichiswhythereisalargedifferencebetweentheinventoryvaluesand
calculatedvaluesinFigure11.ThemainissuesaroundaccountingareaddressedinBox1
below.
ThetwolowerpanelsinFigure11showtheemissionscontributionsfrominsitusequestrationandfromharvestedwoodproducts(HWPs)forthedifferentscenarios.The
HWPshaveadramaticoscillatingimpact:peakharvestingratesleadtolargenegative
spikes,followedbyperiodsofnetpositiveemissionswherecarbonlossesfromtheexisting
poolofHWPsexceedthecarbongainsfromnewadditions.AsdiscussedinBox1,these
extremevariationsarecausedbythefixedharvestageassumptioninthemodel,which
Vividcompensatedforbyreportingthe2040–59averagefor2050.Forconsistencywith
Vivid,Iuseda20-yearrollingaverage,shownbytheblacklinesinthegraphs.These
24Withouteitherofthesetechnologies,thepeakwouldnotoccuruntilaround2025whencownumberspeak.
27
averagedpathsarepresentedside-by-sideinthetoppanelofFigure11.Notethatthese
graphsgoto2070.
Theresultisthatinbothscenarios,totalsequestrationremainsrelativelyflatto2040with
somefluctuations(thereisagradualdeclineoverallinInnovative).Afterthis,sequestration
soarstoapeakaround2055,beforedeclining.ImplicationsofthisarediscussedinSection
4.4.
Box1:Forestrycarbonaccounting
Carbonaccountingforforestryiscomplexandmultipleaccountingmethodsexist.These
differentmethodscanleadtolargedifferencesinreportedemissionsinaparticularyear.
Table2comparestheaccountingmethodthatVividusedwiththetwocurrently-used
accountingmethods(GHGInventoryaccountingandKyotoaccounting)andthemethodthe
GovernmentintendstoapplytoNewZealand’s2030target(“ModifiedKyoto”).Vivid
combinedelementsoftheModifiedKyotoandGHGInventorymethods:theyusedan
averagingapproachforsequestrationonforestland,butaccountedforharvestedwood
products(HWPs)separatelyusingreal-timeaccountingandincludingHWPsfromallforests
(notjustpost-1989forestland).
Vividalsoaveragedthetotalemissionsovera20-yearperiodinthefigurestheypresented
for2050.Thisisasensiblesolutiontoproblemsassociatedwithusingafixedharvestagein
theirmodel.ThatisanunrealisticassumptiongiventheirregularageprofileofNew
Zealand’sforestsanditleadstolargevarianceintheyear-on-yearemissionsestimatesfor
HWPs.Usinga20-yearaverageapproximatesamorerealisticharvestingregime.
Duetothedifferencesinaccountingmethods,cautionisrequiredincomparingtheforestry
emissionsestimatesinVivid’sreporttovaluesinthenationalgreenhousegasinventory.The
sameapplieswhencomparingtheresultstoNewZealand’s2030target.TheGovernment
hasnotreleaseddetailedinformationonitsintendedaccountingmethodology,which
makesanyassessmentinrelationtothe2030targetdifficultanduncertain.25
Furthertotheaccountingmethod,anotherissuewiththeestimatesistheparametersused
inthecarbonmodel.Ofparticularimportancearethecarbonyieldtables,whichestimate
thecarbonsequesteredeachyearafteraforestisplanted.VividreliedupontheMinistryfor
PrimaryIndustries’defaultcarbontablesforEmissionsTradingSchemeparticipants.
However,theMinistryfortheEnvironmentusesdifferenttablesinitsnationalinventory
25Young,P.andG.Simmons.2016.CooktheBooks.Wellington:MorganFoundation.
28
calculationswhichhavesignificantlyhighersequestrationvalues.26Thisisanotherreasonto
becautiouscomparingtheresultshereandfromVivid’sreportwithothersources.
TABLE2:COMPARISONOFFORESTRYCARBONACCOUNTINGMETHODS
GHGInventoryaccounting
Kyotoaccounting NZ’sproposedaccountingmethodfor2030target
Vivid’saccountingmethod
Baseyear Includesemissions
andsequestration
fromallforest
land.
1990baseyear:Post-1989forestland
(convertedafter1989)
treatedasperGHG
Inventoryaccounting.
Pre-1990forestland
treateddifferently(see
below).
1990baseyear.(Distinction
becomesirrelevantwithaveraging
approach.)
Harvestcycle
Real-timeemissionsaccounting:Carbonmodel
designedtotrack
annualemissions
andsequestration
inrealtime.
Real-timeaccounting
forpost-1989forest
land.Pre-1990forest
effectivelytreatedas
steady-state,unless
deforestation(i.e.land
usechange)occurs.27
Averagingapproach:Allforestlandtreatedassteady-stateoncethe
“long-termaveragecarbonstock”is
reached(takingintoaccountharvest
rotation).Nofurtheremissionsor
sequestrationisregisterediflandis
replantedafterharvest.
Harvestedwoodproducts
Real-time
accountingofall
HWPsproduced
since1900
(estimated).
Real-timeaccounting
forHWPsproduced
frompost-1989land.
HWPsfrompre-1990
landtreatedassteady-
state.
Includedin
calculationof
long-term
averagecarbon
stock.28
SameasGHG
Inventory
accounting
(includesHWPs
fromallforest
land).
26Thesearenotpublished,buttheMinistryprovidedthemtomeonrequestforapreviousproject.
27Morecorrectly,pre-1990forestisaccountedforrelativetoabusiness-as-usual“forestmanagement
referencelevel”.Changesrelativetothisreferencelevelduetochangedmanagementpractices(suchas
changeinharvestrotation)couldbecreditedordebited.SeeVividEconomics(2017b),p.65.28ThisismyinterpretationofthedescriptionoftheaccountingmethodologyinNewZaland’sNationally
DeterminedContribution(emphasisadded):“ForestsestablishedafterthebaseyearwillcontinuetobeaccountedforastheywouldundertheKyotoProtocol,butoncetheyattaintheirlong-termaveragecarbonstock,takingintoaccountallcarbonpoolsandactivities,theforestwilltransfertotheForestmanagement/Forestremainingforestcategory,whereitwillbeaccountedforunderabusiness-as-usualreferencelevel.”
29
4.2 GROSSANDNETEMISSIONSPATHS
Combiningallthesectoralemissionspathsproducesthetotalgrossandnetemissionspaths
shownbelowinFigure12.TheresultsarealsopresentedinTable3.
FIGURE12:INDICATIVEGROSSANDNETEMISSIONSPATHS
30
TABLE3:TOTALGROSSANDNETEMISSIONSPATHS
2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Change2014-2030
Change2014-2050 Annualemissions(MtCO2e)
Grossemissions
Resourceful 81.1 82.6 77.7 72.6 68.4 64.5 60.7 56.6 -10% -30%Innovative 81.1 82.1 73.7 64.5 58.3 53.3 48.5 43.8 -20% -46%NetZero2050 81.1 82.2 73.7 64.6 56.8 50.3 44.2 38.3 -20% -53%
Netemissions
Resourceful 65.8 66.2 63.7 57.5 50.3 45.5 35.5 20.2 -13% -69%Innovative 65.8 66.1 60.9 52.1 44.5 40.4 31.3 16.9 -21% -74%NetZero2050 65.8 65.8 59.8 49.5 38.7 31.3 18.9 1.8 -25% -97%
Note: AllnetemissionsvaluesherearecalculatedusingVivid’sforestryaccountingmethod.Becauseofthis,the2014valuediffersfromthenationalinventoryvalue,andthepercentagereductionsby2050differfromvaluespresentedinVivid’sreport.
TABLE4:CUMULATIVEEMISSIONSUNDERTHEEMISSIONSPATHS
2016–2020
2021–2025
2026–2030
2031–2035
2036–2040
2041–2045
2046–2050
FirstParisperiod(2021–2030)
Total(2016-2050)
CumulativeGHGemissions(allgases,MtCO2e)Grossemissions
Resourceful 415 401 373 350 330 311 291 774 2,471Innovative 414 388 341 304 276 252 228 729 2,204NetZero2050 414 388 341 300 264 233 203 730 2,144
Forestry Resourceful -83 -74 -71 -86 -90 -111 -162 -145 -677Innovative -82 -70 -61 -68 -63 -75 -117 -131 -536NetZero2050 -83 -74 -71 -86 -90 -112 -162 -145 -679
Netemissions
Resourceful 332 327 302 265 240 199 129 629 1,794Innovative 332 318 280 237 213 177 111 598 1,668NetZero2050 331 314 270 214 174 121 41 584 1,465
31
Inthenetemissionsgraph,thecalculatedvaluesdifferfromthenationalinventoryvalues
becauseofthedifferentforestryaccountingmethodsused(seeSection4.1.5andBox1on
p.27).Asdiscussedearlier,thismeansweneedtobecarefulcomparingtheseresultswith
othersources.
Theemissionspathsseebothgrossandnetemissionspeakingin2018.Ongrossemissions,
allscenariosachievetheirfastestrateofreductionthroughthe2020s,withprogress
graduallyslowingafterthat.TherateofreductionisroughlytwiceasfastinInnovativeand
NetZero2050comparedwithResourceful.Relativeto2014,thepathsseegrossemissions
reduced10-20percentby2030and30–53percentby2050.
Thesurgeinnetforestrysequestrationbeginningin2035compensatesfortheslowdownin
progressongrossemissions,anddrivesveryrapidreductionsinnetemissionstowardsthe
middleofthecentury.Relativeto2014,netemissionsare13-25percentlowerby2030and
69–97percentlowerby2050.NetZero2050comesextremelyclosebutfallsjustshortof
fulfillingitsname.
WhiletheParisAgreementtextdoesnotmakethisdistinction,thekeyconditionfor
stabilisingglobaltemperaturesisforemissionsoflong-livedgreenhousegases(primarily
carbondioxideandnitrousoxide)toreachnetzero.29Thescenariosallachievethis
milestonebetween2045and2050.
Table4showsthecumulativeemissionsforallgasesinfiveyearperiodsfrom2016.Over
thewholetimeperiodfrom2016–2050,cumulativegrossemissionsspanarangeof2,144–
2,471MtCO2e.Cumulativenetemissionsrangefrom1,465–1,794MtCO2e.
4.3 ANALYSISWITHRESPECTTONEWZEALAND’S2030TARGET
UndertheParisAgreement,NewZealandhasseta2030emissionstargetof30percent
belowthe2005grossemissionslevel.Thetargetappliestonetemissionsusingthe
proposed“ModifiedKyoto”forestryaccountingmethoddescribedinBox1(p.27).For
compliance,thetargetwillbeconvertedintoa2021–2030“carbonbudget”.
TheMinistryfortheEnvironmentcurrentlyestimatesaprovisionalcarbonbudgetof594
MtCO2eandforecastgrossemissionsof814MtCO2eovertheperiod.30Thesevaluesare
basedonthe2017nationalinventory,whichmakesthemslightlyinconsistentwithour
data.31IgnoringthisandcomparingthenumbersinTable4atfacevalueimpliesagross
emissionsabatementof40–85MtCO2eintheseemissionspathsbeyondwhatcurrent
policiesareexpectedtodeliver.
29Short-livedgases,ofwhichmethaneisbyfarthemostimportant,arenotrequiredtogotozero,asan
ongoingsteadyflowleadstoastableatmosphericconcentration.However,deep,sustainedreductionsin
methanewillstillberequiredtomeetthegoalsoftheParisAgreement.30http://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/nz-ets-and-nzs-carbon-budget-in-the-2020s
31Thepreviouscarbonbudgetestimate(basedonthe2016inventory)was611Mt.Forsimplicity,Istickwith
thecurrentestimates.
32
Takingthenetemissionsnumbersatfacevalue,itappearsthattheNetZero2050path
comesinunderthe2021–30carbonbudget(at584MtCO2e),andtheotherscenariopaths
arenotfaraboveit.However,asdiscussedinBox1,thisdirectcomparisonisproblematic
becausetheforestryaccountingmethodusedbyVividdoesnotfullyalignwiththe
Government’sproposedmethod–particularlyonthetreatmentofHWPs.
Asasensitivitytest,ifweweretoexcludeHWPsaltogetherandlookonlyatinsituforestcarbon,thenetsequestrationovertheperiodwouldbe43–53MtCO2e.Thisconstitutesan
extremelower-boundsequestrationestimate.Usingthesevalues,netemissionsoverthe
periodwouldrangefrom677–721MtCO2e.
Duetothesignificantuncertaintiesaroundthesequestrationestimates,theabovefigures
shouldbeinterpretedandusedwithduecaution.
4.4 BEYOND2050:GETTINGTOANDSUSTAININGNETZEROEMISSIONS
IntheNetZeroinNewZealandsummaryreport,VividstatesthattheInnovativeand
Resourcefulscenarioswouldboth“placetheeconomyonapathtonetzeroemissions
before2100”.However,thereisanimportantcaveatsummarisedintheirfifthkey
conclusion:
“Althoughafforestationwilllikelybeanimportantelementofanystrategytomovetoanetzeroemissionstrajectoryintheperiodto2050,inthesecondhalfofthecenturyalternativestrategieswillbeneeded.”
Theyelaborateonthispointintheexecutivesummary:
“Sustaineddeploymentofpermanentemissionreductionsisrequiredbeyond2050tocontinuethepathtoemissionsneutrality;thiswillbeparticularlyimportantinResourcefulNewZealand.AlthoughtheInnovativeandResourcefulscenariosreduceemissionsataratethatisconsistentwithemissionsneutralityinthesecondhalfofthecentury,theanalysisdoesnotincludeafullassessmentofbottom-upemissionreductionspotentialbeyond2050.Furtherreductionsmaybemorechallengingasmanyofthelower-costopportunitieswillhavebeencaptured.Theheavyreliance�onnetafforestationinResourcefulNewZealandposesparticularchallengesasthesequestrationpotentialofforestsdiminishesastheyreachmaturity,andemissionsarereleasedafterthetimberisharvested.Scopeforyetfurtherafforestationisalsolimitedinthisscenario.Consequently,beyond2050,NewZealandmaywellneedtoexploreoptionsthatdelivernegativeemissions(inotherwords,thatpermanentlyremoveemissionsfromtheatmosphere).Thismightinclude,forinstance,theuseofbioenergyincombinationwithcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS),butcouldalsoincludetheuseoftechnologiesthatarenotyetforeseen.”
Toexplorethismatter,andthequestionofifandwhennetzeromightbeachieved,I
extendedalloftheemissionpathsoutto2070.Thisinvolvedextendingthetrajectoriesfor
allofthedriversdescribedinChapter3(listedinTable5).Ididthisby:
33
• Forforestry,maintainingVivid’sspecifiedplantingschedule(i.e.decliningtozero
from2050to2070);
• Forthosedriversusingaparticularequationormodel(e.g.vehicleelectrification,
dairycowpopulation),maintainingandextendingthis;
• Inallothercases,linearextrapolationbasedonthetrendoverthedecadeto2050.
Ingeneral,thisassumesfurtherincrementalprogress,andonlyintheareaswherechanges
arealreadyoccurring.Thereisnoaccelerationofeffortandnonewmitigationoptions
beyondthoseVividincluded.
TheresultsareshowninFigure14.Thekeyobservationisthatundertheseextended
assumptions,neitherResourcefulnorInnovativewouldinfacteverreachnetzero
emissions.ParticularlyinInnovative,manycurrentemissionssources(suchaslightvehicles
andlow-gradeheat)arealmostcompletelydecarbonisedbymid-centurysocannotyield
meaningfulfurtherreductions.Duetothecombinedeffectofslowingreductionsingross
emissionsanddecliningsequestrationfromforestry,netemissionsbegintoriseagainafter
around2060.ThelowindustryscenariovariationsofResourcefulandInnovative(notshown
here)donotreachnetzeroemissionseither;NetZero2050istheonlyscenariothatdoes.
ButevenNetZero2050,withoutneworacceleratedmitigationactionsornewwaysof
sequesteringCO2,wouldonlyachievethisgoaltemporarily;netemissionsrisebackabove
zerobefore2070.
ThisservestoillustrateVivid’spointsabove.Toreachandthensustainnetzeroemissions,it
willbenecessarytotakeadditionalmitigationactionsbeyondthoseincludedinthese
scenarios.ForResourceful,thatwouldlikelymeanbelatedadoptionoftheadditional
energytechnologies(suchaselectrificationofhigh-gradeheat),oralternativestothese,in
thepost-2050period.Thatis,theadditionalforestplantingonlydelaysbutdoesnotavoid
theneedforotherchangesintheeconomy.Furthermore,fromacumulativeemissions
perspective,landcanalwaysbeafforestedlaterandwilllockupthesameamountofcarbon
overtime,whereasdelayedreductionsingrossemissions(particularlyoflong-livedgases)
cannotsimplybereversed.
FIGURE13:NETEMISSIONSPATHTO2070
34
FIGURE14:EMISSIONSBYSECTORTO2070
35
5 DISCUSSIONANDRECOMMENDATIONS
ThispaperbuildsontheworkofVividEconomicsbyexploringtransitionpathsconsistent
withscenariosintheNetZeroinNewZealandreport.Usingabackcastingapproach,Ihavesoughttocreaterealisticpathsbetweennowand2050.Ihavealsoextendedthepaths
further,outto2070.Together,theseformabroad-bandedindicativepathwaytowards
domesticemissionsneutrality,whichGLOBE-NZcoulduseforthebasisoffurther
conversationandanalysis.
Thisindicativepathwayservesasasoundandconsistentstartingpoint,butdoesnotspan
thefullrangeofpossibilitiesforhowthetransitioncouldoccur.Thescopeofthisproject
limitedtheextentofanalysisonthetrajectoriesofthevariousdriversofemissions.Across
allareas,thereispotentialforacceleratedordelayedaction,whilearrivingatthesame
pointin2050.Thiscouldwarrantfurtherexploration,particularlyinareassuchaslight
vehicletransportthatcouldbesubjecttodisruptivechange.Simplifiedassumptionswere
necessaryinseveralcases:wheretheevidencebaseispoor,suchasforelectrificationof
heat;andwherethetimingishighlyuncertain,suchasforindustryclosureandadoptionof
amethanevaccine.
Throughthecourseofthisproject,ithasbecomeevidentthatthereareissuesaround
Vivid’sforestrysequestrationestimateswhichneedtoberesolved.Differencesbetweenthe
accountingmethodusedinthereportandthemethodsusedbytheNewZealand
Governmentmakecomparisonsdifficult,leadingtopotentialforconfusion.Variationsin
forestcarbonmodelparametersmayalsoleadtosignificantlydifferentoutcomes.I
thereforerecommendthattheforestrysequestrationestimatesbereviewed,ideallywith
inputfromrelevantgovernmentdepartments.Suchareviewcouldalsolookatalternative
plantingscenariosdevelopedbyMason&Morgenroth.32Inthemeantime,theforestry
emissionsandnetemissionsresultsinthispapershouldbeviewedastentative.
Recommendation1:Forestrysequestrationestimatesshouldbereviewed.
Whilethemainfocusofthisreportisontheemissionspath,asdiscussedinSection1.3,this
isoneofarangeofcomponentsthatmaymakeupa“2050pathway”.Otherpotential
componentsonwhichthispaperofferssomeinsightareindicatorsandmilestones.An
exampleindicatorwouldbeelectricvehiclemarketshare,withcorrespondingmilestones
basedonbackcastingfroma2050fleetelectrificationtarget.Thesimpleanalysis
undertakenforthispapersuggeststhattheInnovativescenariowouldrequireelectric
marketshareforlightvehiclestoreach50%byaround2025and100%byaround2035.
Definingapathwayusingtangiblemeasuressuchasthis,inadditiontoemissionslevels,
mayhelpwithpolicydevelopmentandwithdeterminingprogress.Irecommendthat
GLOBE-NZconsiderbroaderelementssuchastheseaspartofitspathwaysconversation.
Thereisanopportunitytoparticipateinandhelpshapetheglobalconversationinthisarea
throughthe2050PathwaysPlatform,whichtheNewZealandGovernmenthassignedupto.
32Mason,E.G.andJ.Morgenroth.2017.PotentialforforestryonhighlyerodiblelandinNewZealand.NZ
JournalofForestry,May2017,Vol.62,No.1.
36
Recommendation2:Consideradditionalelementsbeyondemissionslevelsindefiningapathwaytodomesticemissionsneutrality.
Thispaperalsoextendsthescenarioanalysisbeyond2050,whichhighlightsserious
challengesingettingtoandsustainingnetzeroemissions.Obviously,thereislimitedvalue
inattemptingtolooktoofarintothefuture.However,thiswarrantsacloserlookatsome
areasoftheeconomywherefurtheremissionsreductionsmaybepossible–inparticular,
thoseemissionssourcesthatdonotreduce(andinsomecasesactuallygrow)underVivid’s
scenarios.Theseinclude:air,seaandrailtransport;fugitiveemissionsfromnaturalgas
productionandgeothermal;cementandlimeproduction;horticulture;andwastewater.In
somecases,driverassumptionsusedbyVividappearconservative–forexample,the
relativelyslowfreightefficiencygains,33lackoffurtherelectrificationofrail,andgrowthin
fugitiveemissionsfromnaturalgas.Inotherareas,suchasairtravelandcement
production,structuralchangessuchasdemandreductionandproductsubstitutionhavenot
beenexploredbutcouldplayanimportantrole.34
Recommendation3:ContinuetoconsiderandexploreemissionsreductionopportunitiesgoingbeyondthosefeaturedinVivid’sscenarios.
Onewaytoenablefurtherexplorationoftherangeofchoicesavailable,anduncertainty
aroundhowthevariousdriversofemissionsmightchange,wouldbetodevelopan
interactivecalculatortool.TheUKGovernment’s2050Calculator35providesatemplate
whichhasbeenadoptedby24othercountries,regionsandcities,36includingWellington.
37
ThecalculatordevelopedbyVividEconomicsissomewhatdifferentbuthasasimilar
underlyinglogicandstructure,andcouldbequitereadilyadapted.
Recommendation4:Explorethepotentialforinteractivetoolstoassistinfurtherdevelopmentandcommunicationofapathwaytodomesticemissionsneutrality.
33http://morganfoundation.org.nz/electrifying-getting-zero-carbon-transport-new-zealand/
34Forexample,inAustralia,think-tankBeyondZeroEmissionshasproducedareportonpathwaystozero
carboncement,andcompanyMineralCarbonationInternationalaimstobeproducingnegative-emissions
“greenconcrete”atacommercialscaleby2020.35http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/
36https://www.2050.org.uk/
37http://www.climatecalculator.org.nz/
37
APPENDIX1:LISTOFKEYDRIVERSANDASSUMPTIONS
TABLE5:LISTOFKEYDRIVERSFOREACHSECTORWITHASSUMPTIONSUSEDBYVIVID
ELECTRICITY Resourceful Innovative,NetZero2050
Electricitydemand 46%baselinegrowthinelectricityconsumptionbetween2014and
2050(followingEDGSMixedRenewablesscenario).Furtherdemand
growthfromelectrificationoftransportandheat,andreductionsdue
toefficiencyandindustryclosures,arecalculatedbasedonscenario
assumptionsinothersectors.
Energyefficiency Noimprovementbeyond
baseline.
Additional0.1%perannum
improvementbeyondbaseline.
Generationmix 91%renewablein2050(8%gas,
1%coal;22%geothermal,
remainderfromnon-emitting
sources).BasedonEDGSGlobal
LowCarbonscenario.
98%renewablein2050(2%gas,
0%coal,20%geothermal,
remainderfromnon-emitting
sources).
Geothermalfugitiveemissionsintensity
Nochange. Improvementrateof1.4%per
annum(39%decreaseby2050).
TRANSPORT Resourceful Innovative,NetZero2050
Lightvehicletraveldemand 10%reductioninVKTpercapitafrom2014levelby2050.Lightvehiclefuelefficiency Improvementrateof1.8%per
annum(90%by2050).
Improvementrateof1.9%per
annum(97%by2050).Lightvehicleelectrification 85%oflightvehicletravelby2050 95%oflightvehicletravelby2050
Freightdemand Growthrateof1.54%perannumforlandandseafreight(73%by
2050).
Freightmodeshift Railshareoflandfreight
increasesfrom12%in2014to
15%in2050.
Railshareincreasesto25%in
2050.
Road,railandseafreightefficiency
Improvementrateof0.3%per
annum(11%by2050).
Improvementrateof0.4%per
annum(15%by2050).
Heavyvehicleelectrification 25%by2050. 50%by2050.
Railelectrification Unchangedat21%.
Domesticairtraveldemand Growthrateof3.2%perannum(211%by2050).
Airtravelefficiency Improvementrateof3.0%per
annum(190%by2050).
Improvementrateof3.1%per
annum(200%by2050).
OTHERFOSSILFUELS Resourceful Innovative,NetZero2050
Energydemand Demandfordairyfarmingandprocessing,pulp,paperandwood
processingiscalculatedfromactivitylevelsbasedonassumptionsin
othersectors.Allothersub-sectorsusebaselinegrowthratesfor
electricalandnon-electricalenergydemandfromEDGSMixed
Renewablescenario.Demandfrompetroleum,chemicalsandprimary
metalsmanufacturinglinkedtolevelsofindustryactivity.
Energyefficiency Improvementrateof1%per
annuminpulp,paperanddairy
(43%by2050).
Additional0.1%annual
improvementbeyondResourceful
inallsub-sectors.
Electrificationlevel By2050:increaseinlow-grade
heat(to75%),andmedium-grade
heat(to13%).
Increaseinlow-gradeheat(to
95%),medium-gradeheat(to
19%),high-gradeheat(to34%)
andmobilemotivepower(to
25%).
38
Bioenergysubstitution Allmedium-gradeheatinpulp,paperandwood.75%ofmedium-
gradeheatinagriculturalprocessing.
FUGITIVEEMISSIONS Resourceful Innovative,NetZero2050
Geothermalenergyuse Calculatedfromelectricitygenerationandassuminggeothermalheat
usegrowsinproportiontototalnon-electricalenergydemand(4%by
2050).
Geothermalemissionsintensity Nochange. Improvementrateof1.4%per
annum(reductionof39%from
2014-2050).
Emissionsfromoilrefiningandcoalmining
Scaledwithlevelsofindustryactivity(petroleumandchemicals;iron
andsteelproduction).Emissionsfromnaturalgasproduction
Scaledwithbaselinenon-electricenergydemand(4%growthto2050).
INDUSTRIALPROCESSESANDPRODUCTUSE
Resourceful Innovative,NetZero2050
Levelofindustrialactivity Mineralproductionscaledwithpopulation(35.4%growthfrom2014
to2050).Chemicalandmetalproductionscaledwithbaselinenon-
electricalenergydemand(4%growthto2050)
Industryclosure ChemicalandmetalindustriesclosedinNetZero2050andin“low
industrysensitivity”variationsforResourcefulandInnovative.
Processefficiency Noimprovement. Improvementrateof0.1%per
annum(4%by2050).UseofHFCs Reductionof85%from2014to2050.
AGRICULTURE Resourceful Innovative,NetZero2050Livestocknumbers From2014to2050:10%
reductionindairycows,20%
reductioninbeefcows,25%
reductioninsheep.
20%reductionindairycows,30%
reductioninbeefcows,35%
reductioninsheep.
Stockingrate Increaseof10%foralltypesof
livestock.
Decreaseof20%fordairy.
Increaseof10%forsheepand
beef.
Productionperanimal Increaseof15%foralltypesof
livestock.
Increaseof25%fordairy,15%for
sheepandbeef.
Baselineemissionsintensity 10%reductionforalltypesoflivestock.
EntericfermentationBreeding 15%reductioninemissionsintensity(beyondbaseline).100%
adoption.
Feed 10%reductioninemissionsintensity.Adoptionrateof70%fordairy,
10%forbeef,0%forsheep.
Methanevaccineorinhibitor
20%reductioninemissions
intensity.Adoptionrateof80%
fordairy,0%forsheepandbeef.
(Novaccine.)
Fordairy,30%reductionin
emissionsintensitywith100%
adoption.Forsheepandbeef,
20%reductioninemissions
intensitywith90%uptake.
AnimalwasteandfertiliserAcceleratedefficiencyandprecisionagriculture
10%reductioninemissionsintensity.Adoptionrateof100%fordairy,
30%forsheepandbeef.
Feed(lownitrogen) 10%reductioninemissionsintensity.Adoptionrateof70%fordairy,
10%forbeef,0%forsheep.
DCD(nitrificationinhibitor)
20%reductioninemissionsintensity.Adoptionrateof40%fordairy,
0%forsheepandbeef.
WASTE Resourceful Innovative,NetZero2050Population MedianprojectionfromStatisticsNZ(35.4%growth2014to2050)
Wastequantity
39
Municipalsolidwaste 25%reductionpercapitaby2050. 50%reductionpercapita.
Construction&demolitionwaste
Constantamountpercapita,but25%divertedfromlandfillby2050.
Wastewater Constantamountpercapita
Unmanagedsites 10%reductionintotalwaste. 20%reductionintotalwaste.
Emissionsintensity/methanecapture
25%decreaseformunicipalsolid
wasteonly.
50%decreaseformunicipalsolid
waste.20%decreaseforfarm
waste.
FORESTRY Resourceful,NetZero2050 InnovativeNewexoticplantings Totalof1.6millionhato2050,2.1
millionhato2100.
Totalof1.1millionhato2050,1.5
millionhato2100.
Newnativeregeneration Totalof1.0millionhato2100. Totalof0.5millionhato2100.
Timeprofileofplanting Linearincreasefrom2015to2030;constantto2050;lineardecrease
tozeroin2070.
Enduses(mixofharvestedwoodproducts)
By2050:150%increasein
hardwood;55%increasein
biofuels;0%increaseinpaper.
Surpluswoodexportedasraw
logs.
By2050:100%increasein
hardwood;34%increasein
biofuels;0%increaseinpaper.
Surpluswoodexportedasraw
logs
Deforestation Zero(allforestlandremainsinitscurrentuse).