Toward the Future

Wiarda

Comp Pol trends

follow elite & public opinionso expect a lot more on post-comm?Positive developments rekindle interest

Africa more attention after democratization

Tradition

legal-formal-descriptiveanalytical aspirations joined with need to

explain superiority of democracy over communism and interest in newly independent nations

Biases

Anti FascistFear of totalitarianismSelf-love of capitalism

Pol Dev: the fall

more familiar now with critique ethnocentric 1st world unique dependency traditional soc still valid false expectations methodology

Huntington & Vietnam!

New strands

CorporatismPolitical EconomyIndigenousBA regimes: partial accountPol Culture now reviving

Pol Dev revival?

3 decades of experiencedemoc, pluralism, stability, rep. Govt, blend

state reg & open economies, social modernization [239]

[Is this what works or what we want to work?!]

Communism unattractive

Development

Democracy & middle classeconomic development is correlating better

now than in 60s

Tasks

Abandon search for single theoryWork in sub-fields on projectsDevelop islands of theory at middle rangeBuild bridges

state-society & public policy IPE re socialist & capitalist economies coporatism and dependency

Huntington: “Will more countries become democratic?”PSQ 1984Greatest potential BA Latin America

Argentina & Chile “polarizing” Prospects better in Brazil

Islamic LowAfrica low“Likelihood of democ devlpt in E Europe is

virtually nil”

Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997Wave 1: 1848 etc in Europe

First reverse wave: fascism

Wave 2: Post WWII effects in 3W Second reverse wave of auth in late 60s & 70s

3rd wave movements most actively pursued by urban middle class

Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997Combination of substantial econ dev and

short term econ crisis most likely to lead to shift from auth to democ govt

Demonstration effects More important in 3rd wave than first two due to

expansion in global communications

Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997Transformation: when elites took lead

~16/35 3rd wave transitions e.g. Spain, Brazil, Hungary

Replacement: opposition groups took lead 6/35 (3/7 changes from personal dictatorships) Greece, Argentina, Philippines, Portugal,

Romania, East Germany

Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997Transplacement: when democ occurred

due to joint action by govt and opposition ~11/35 Poland, Czech, Uruguay, Korea also some role in Bolivia, Honduras, El

Salvador, Nicaragua

Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? Predictions

1st efforts often fail and 2nd succeed elections vehicle and goal

Tied to economic performance?Conditional on external aid?