toward a classification of ready-to- eat foods according ... · toward a classification of...
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Toward a Classification of Ready-to-eat Foods According to Risk or Other
Uses of Risk Assessment inManaging risk
Richard C. WhitingCenter for Food Safety and AppliedNutritionFood and Drug Administration
Cluster 4Cultured Milk Products
Ice Cream and Frozen Dairy ProductsProcessed Cheese
Hard Cheese
Cluster 3Deli-type Salads
Dry/Semi-dry Fermented SausagesFresh Soft Cheese
Frankfurters, reheatedFruits
Preserved FishRaw Seafood
Semi-soft CheeseSoft Ripened Cheese
Vegetables
Cluster 2Cooked RTE Crustaceans
High Fat and Other Dairy ProductsPasteurized Fluid MilkSoft Unripened Cheese
Cluster 1Deli Meats
Frankfurters, not reheatedPâté and Meat SpreadsUnpasteurized Fluid Milk
Smoked Seafood
Risk per Serving
Cluster ECultured Milk Products
Hard CheeseIce Cream and Frozen Dairy Products
Preserved FishProcessed Cheese
Raw Seafood
Cluster DDeli-type Salads
Dry/Semi-dry Fermented SausagesFrankfurters, reheated
Fresh Soft CheeseSemi-Soft Cheese
Soft Ripened CheeseVegetables
Cluster CCooked RTE Crustaceans
FruitsPâté and Meat SpreadsUnpasteurized Fluid Milk
Smoked Seafood
Cluster BHigh Fat and Other Dairy Products
Frankfurters, not reheatedPasteurized Fluid MilkSoft Unripened Cheese
Cluster ADeli Meats
Risk per Annum
Cluster Analysis
The Model as a ToolSensitivity Analyses—
’What-If’ Scenarios
Estimate the impact of intervention strategiesby changing 1 or more input parameters andmeasuring change in the model output
Test effects of changes in process orregulation (prediction of impact onpublic health)Show how different factorsinterrelate (hypothetical)
Contamination at Retail
With baseline storage times and temperaturesGrowth supporting food
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 1
2
3
4
5
6
Log Reduction Achieved by Intervention
Pre
dic
ted
An
nu
al M
ort
alit
y
Deli Meat - Elderly
Inhibiting Growth inFrankfurters-Not reheated
0.430.5Cases per annum(median, total
population)
8.2 x 10 - 106.5 x 10 - 8Cases per serving(median, total
population)
Growth inhibitedGrowth permitted(baseline RA)
‘What-if’ Scenario for Mortality as aFunction of Home Storage Time
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Storage time (d)
Fre
qu
ency
Baseline
Truncated 15 days
Deli Meat - Elderly
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Maximum Storage Time (Days)
An
nu
al M
ort
alit
y
Mortality as a Function of MaximumStorage Temperature
0 5 10 15 20
Temperature (C)
Fre
qu
ency
Deli Meat - Elderly
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Maximum Refrigerator Temperature (°C)
Pre
dic
ted
An
nu
alM
ort
a lit
y 7 C/45 F
Conclusions and Interpretations
Major factors that affect risk:Susceptibility of individualFrequency and amount of consumption
Frequency and level of contaminationAbility of food to support growthOpportunity for growth
Refrigerated storage temperatureRefrigerated storage time
Foods that lead to cases of listeriosis arealmost always growth supporting foodswith some initial contamination thathave been abused
It’s not whether a food is below 100 cfu/g or not,the more important question is what is the bestpublic health policy to prevent consumption of10 4 to 10 6 (or more) cfu/g
Quantitative assessment of relative risk topublic health from foodborne Listeriamonocytognees among selected categories ofready-to-eat foods.
Sept 2003
www.foodsafety.gov