tools for assessments of vulnerability and adaptation ... · module ii. concepts, frameworks,...
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Module II. Concepts, frameworks, methodologies and tools for vulnerability and adaptation assessments
Tools for assessments of vulnerability and adaptation strategies
Boubacar Fall (ENDA, Dakar, Senegal)
In collaboration with:
Introduction
• Many tools exist to assist in the assessment of vulnerability and adaptation
• To select appropriate tools:Clearly define the nature of vulnerability, as well as the framework and methodology to be used; andKeep in mind the practical elements of the assessment: context, time, resources available, target audience, use of results, etc.
Introduction (con’t)
• Some tools are specific to vulnerability assessments
• Some tools are specific to adaptation assessments
• Some tools can be used for both• Vulnerability and adaptation assessments can
be done at different levels • There are appropriate tools for each level
Examples of V&A assessment tools for the individual or community level
Vulnerability AdaptationOral histories
Focus groups
Role playing
Cognitive mapping
Brainstorming
Oral histories
• Qualitative histories of individual actors:– Information is obtained through interviews – Interview summaries can assist in outlining the past
vulnerability of a multitude of actors– Can be used for ecological restoration – Useful for planning, decision-making and project design
• Multi-disciplinary team with general knowledge
Focus Groups
• Discussions amongst a group of stakeholders• Goal: To obtain advice from different stakeholders on
a certain subject• Groups should be homogenous taking in account the
cultural factors (5 to 10 participants)• Choose:
– A facilitator– A rapporteur (or tape the discussion)
• Duration of discussion: 1-2 hours• Current decision-making, project design, planning• Multi-disciplinary team with general knowledge
Brainstorming
• Goal: Collect all common ideas and thoughts on a given subject
• Choose a clear and understandable subject• Assemble the group around a table with a large
sheet of paper at the center so that each person can add his or her ideas
• Or use a facilitator to write down all of the ideas generated by the group
• No more than 10 people per group• Group similar ideas together and highlight those
ideas to follow-up on• Use the most original ideas
Role playing
• A participatory game that stimulates discussion, paves the way for improved communication, and supports collaboration
• Not constrained by literacy or instruction barriers that may otherwise exist
• To begin the role play, one must describe the situation/problem to be discussed and assign a different role to each participant
• Allow each participant to express his or her observations and to suggest solutions
Cognitive Mapping
• Allows for the measurement of mental representations• Assists in structuring complex or unorganized data• Useful when perceptions of a problem differ, the
problem is poorly defined or when a common framework is desired
• To construct a cognitive map:– State what the problem is– Brainstorm all associated assumptions and solutions – Group the concepts that emerge– Re-illustrate the concepts so they form a conceptual model– Consult participants to ensure that they are satisfied with the model that has
been created; if not, revise the model– Produce a formal model
Cognitive Map of Food Systems
Source: Downing and Ziervogel, 2004
FOOD
Human Healthand Survival
Contains
Required for
and
Requiring more
Essential Amino Acids
Animals
Used for
Such as
Madeby
Plants
Grains Legumes
Required forgrowth of
Symbiotic Bacteria
“Fixed” Nitrogen
Possess
That produce
Agricultural Practices
Population Growth
Politics
Economics
Distribution
Climate
Starvation and Famine
Malthus 1819
Eastern Europe
India
Africa
Deprivation leads to
Can be limited by
and
Such as in
Pesticides HerbicidesGenetics & Breeding
Irrigation
Fertilizer Which significantly supplements naturally
Such as
Predicted by
Can be increased by
NH3Haber
ProcessAtmospheric N2
Protein
Includes
Eatenby
Use
d by
hu m
ans
a s
FOOD
Human Healthand Survival
Contains
Required for
and
Requiring more
Essential Amino Acids
Animals
Used for
Such as
Madeby
Plants
Grains Legumes
Required forgrowth of
Symbiotic Bacteria
“Fixed” Nitrogen
Possess
That produce
Agricultural Practices
Population Growth
Politics
Economics
Distribution
Climate
Starvation and Famine
Malthus 1819
Eastern Europe
India
Africa
Deprivation leads to
Can be limited by
and
Such as in
Pesticides HerbicidesGenetics & Breeding
Irrigation
Fertilizer Which significantly supplements naturally
Such as
Predicted by
Can be increased by
NH3Haber
ProcessAtmospheric N2
Protein
Includes
Eatenby
Use
d by
hu m
ans
a s
Examples of V&A assessment tools for the municipal or institutional level
Vulnerability Adaptation
Livelihood indicators
GIS
Vulnerability indicators
Institutional analysis
Decision tree
Livelihood indicators
• Assess the impacts of climate change on different aspects of the livelihoods
• Begin by analyzing the dominant livelihoods in the case study region
• Identify the different threats for these livelihoods and develop a sensitivity matrix that reflects the interactions between these livelihoods (rows) and the risks (columns) identified
• Assign a numeric score to each cell of the matrix– In the case of a rapid participatory exercise, use a qualitative scale: high,
medium or low• Calculate the total per row and per column
– The highest column scores indicate which climate hazards have the greatest impact
– The highest row scores indicate which livelihoods are most affected
Livelihoods sensitivity matrix
GIS (Geographic Information Systems)
• Software that organizes geographical and numeric data and allows one to manage the information produced
• GIS can serve many functions:- Data collection (geographic, geo-spatial)- Information management and storage- Analytical functions- Transformation of data into maps, tables, graphs or figures- Support to the decision-making process for planning, land-use or natural resources management, and transport issues
Vulnerability Indicators• Measures the degree of vulnerability• Guides the decision-making process by prioritizing
which interventions are needed• An indicator must reflect the actual situation to be
reliable• It is difficult to compare different indicators• Step one: Select indicators based on the situation
– eg. Food security has economic, demographic and political dimensions, so indicators that reflect this include: GDP/capita, infant mortality rate, or literacy rates amongst women
• Step two: Assign weights to indicators according to their importance
Natural Natural Natural Financial Human Social Physical
Land Livestock Cash crops Off-farm employment
Skilled labour Community organizations
Roads
Smallholders 5 2 4 3 3 5 5
Emerging farmers
10 5 7 6 7 7 5
Agro-pastoralists
1 10 1 2 1 3 2
Market-traders
10 1 1 10 10 7 10
Vulnerability Indicators
Source: UNFCCC/LEG, 2004
Spider diagram
Institutional Analysis
• Mapping the different stakeholders and their interactions (rules, norms, organizations)
• Institutional changes (through social, cultural or other changes) can play a more important role in V&A than do climate variability and/or change
• Institutional change can be extremely variable and unpredictable, and can limit and/or facilitate adaptation
• Helps in determining who is vulnerable and why, as well as why some response measures might be more appropriate than others
Decision Tree
• Chart of the relationships between different decision paths
• A decision tree assists in the visualization of the possible implications of one decision
• Useful for adaptation planning• To construct a decision tree:
– Structure the problem (and possible outcomes) as a tree– Assign probabilities to each of the potential events of the
tree– Calculate the total for each different decision path– Decide on which action to take
Source: Downing and Ziervogel, 2004
Examples of V&A assessment tools for the national or regional level
Vulnerability Adaptation
Vulnerability profiles
Syndromes
Multi-criteria analysis
Expert judgment
Scenario analysis
Vulnerability Profiles
• Representation of different vulnerability indicators for a group
• Helps to identify patterns of exposure, sensitivity and resilience among regions, social groups, etc.
• Indicators that could be included in a profile, include:– Percentage of population below the poverty line; illiteracy
rate; access to health care or land; exposure to climate– Socio-economic factors: population growth; the spread of
HIV/AIDS; population migration; market price fluctuations• Construct a matrix of the different groups and their
scores for the selected indicators• Use radial diagrams to illustrate differences in a
graphical manner
Drought-food security
Climate
Water & Land
Health
Economy
Socio-institutional
Demography
Vulnerability profile based on six factors related to the food security of rural smallholders
Source: Downing and Ziervogel, 2004
Syndromes
• The syndromes approach aims to assess and monitor a number of coupled processes taking place on different (spatial and temporal) scales
• Goal: To determine the level(s) of intervention to achieve the most sustainable development pathways
• 16 syndromes* have been identified and are classified into one of three groups:– Utilization syndromes (7):
• e.g. Over-cultivation of marginal land, combined with rural poverty (Sahel Syndrome)• e.g. Destruction of nature by tourism (Mass Tourism Syndrome)
– Development syndromes (6):• e.g. Destruction of landscapes through planned expansion of cities and infrastructure (Urban
Sprawl Syndrome)• e.g. Disregard for environmental standards in the course of rapid economic growth (Asian Tigers
Syndrome)– Sink Syndromes (3):
• e.g. Threats to the environment through disposal of waste (Waste Dumping Syndrome)• e.g. Environmental degradation through large-scale diffusion of long-lived substances (Smokestack
Syndrome)
* German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) www.wbgu.de/wbgu_syndromkonzept_en.html
Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA)
• Allows for the comparison of adaptation options using monetary and non-monetary values
• Facilitates the decision-making process• Various steps of a MCA are:
- Identify the decision-making context- Identify possible adaptation options- Select criteria to evaluate the options- Score the adaptation options using the criteria selected- Standardize the scores- Assign weights to the criteria according to their importance- Recalculate the scores and rank the options- Analyze the results- Determine the sensitivity of the results
Expert judgment
• A quick method to obtain information on one or more options
• Assessment of specific options by specialists: – Conduct a preliminary analysis of the decision-making
context in which adaptation options will be selected– Provide this information to the experts via email or a letter
requesting their opinions– Do not contact experts before the initial assessment has
been done– After analyzing the responses of the experts, produce a
detailed report of the problem and rank the response options by priority order
Scenario Analysis
• Projections of the future based on either optimistic or pessimistic assumptions of future development
• Allows one to project the potential impacts of adaptation strategies
• Generally developed by small teams of experts representing a wide variety of sectors
• Two approaches dominate scenario development:– Global level: Top-down approach– Local level: Bottom-up approach