tom malone - program for the future dec. 8

Thomas W. MaloneThomas W. Malone

MIT Center for Collective IntelligenceMIT Center for Collective Intelligence

The landscape of The landscape of collective intelligence:collective intelligence:

Mapping the Mapping the collective intelligence “genome”collective intelligence “genome”

Copyright © 2008 Thomas W. Malone. All rights reserved.

Presentation at the Program for the Future Conference, San Jose, CA, December 8, 2008


What is collective intelligence?What is collective intelligence?

Collective intelligence –Collective intelligence –

Groups of individuals doing things Groups of individuals doing things collectively that seem intelligentcollectively that seem intelligent


New examples of collective intelligenceNew examples of collective intelligence

• GoogleGoogle

• WikipediaWikipedia

• DiggDigg

• YouTubeYouTube

• InnoCentiveInnoCentive

• ……


The QuestionThe Question

How can people and computersHow can people and computers

be connected so thatbe connected so that

——collectively—collectively—

they act more intelligently they act more intelligently

than any person, group, or computerthan any person, group, or computer

has ever done before?has ever done before?


Mapping collective intelligence Mapping collective intelligence “genomes”“genomes”

• Different types of collective intelligence embody different Different types of collective intelligence embody different design patterns.design patterns.

• Let’s call these design patterns “genes.”Let’s call these design patterns “genes.”

• For each gene (and common combinations), we can map:For each gene (and common combinations), we can map:

– ExamplesExamples

– Situations where usefulSituations where useful

– LimitationsLimitations

– ……


CollaboratorsCollaborators

• Rob Laubacher Rob Laubacher

– Research scientist, MIT Center for Collective IntelligenceResearch scientist, MIT Center for Collective Intelligence

• Chris Dellarocas Chris Dellarocas

– Professor, University of MarylandProfessor, University of Maryland


Every activity must have genes to Every activity must have genes to answer four questionsanswer four questions

What

How

Who Why

Strategy

Structure (Grouping)Process (Linking)

Incentives (Alignment)Staffing


Example: Example: Genetic structure of LinuxGenetic structure of Linux

What

How

Who Why WhoWho CrowdCrowd HierarchyHierarchy(Torvalds et al)(Torvalds et al)

WhatWhat Creates software Creates software modulesmodules

Decide which Decide which modules to modules to includeinclude

HowHow As a As a collaborationcollaboration

As a hierarchyAs a hierarchy

WhyWhy For fun, For fun, reputation, etc.reputation, etc.

For fun, For fun, reputation, etcreputation, etc


Who?Who?

Who does the activity?

Hierarchy One or a few people from a small, preselected group

Selecting modules for Linux

Crowd Anyone who wants to in a large group Editing Wikipedia


When is the Crowd gene useful?When is the Crowd gene useful?

• The resources useful in solving the problem are distributed The resources useful in solving the problem are distributed widely (or in unknown places).widely (or in unknown places).

• The problem be divided into pieces such that:The problem be divided into pieces such that:

– Single individuals can do the pieces.Single individuals can do the pieces.

– Enough individuals can be found and are (or can be) sufficiently Enough individuals can be found and are (or can be) sufficiently motivated to participate.motivated to participate.

– The current owners of necessary information are willing to share it The current owners of necessary information are willing to share it with the “crowd.”with the “crowd.”

– Gaming and sabotage can be managed satisfactorily.Gaming and sabotage can be managed satisfactorily.

– ……


Why?Why?

• MoneyMoney– Direct paymentDirect payment

– Help in getting future payment (e.g., advertising, learning)Help in getting future payment (e.g., advertising, learning)

• LoveLove– Opportunities to socializeOpportunities to socialize

– Direct enjoyment of activityDirect enjoyment of activity

– Contribution to some larger causeContribution to some larger cause

– Enables access to something else desirable (e.g., captchas)Enables access to something else desirable (e.g., captchas)

• GloryGlory– RecognitionRecognition

• ……


When are the Why genes useful?When are the Why genes useful?

• There are many complex factors here!There are many complex factors here!

• Appealing to Love and Glory, rather than Money, can often Appealing to Love and Glory, rather than Money, can often (though not always) reduce costs.(though not always) reduce costs.

• It is often possible to influence the direction and speed of a It is often possible to influence the direction and speed of a group’s activities by providing Money or Glory based on group’s activities by providing Money or Glory based on specific goals and deadlines.specific goals and deadlines.

• ……

Failure to get motivational factors right is probably the single greatest cause of failure in collective intelligence experiments.


Types of organizational genesTypes of organizational genes

What

How

Who WhyCrowd Crowd HierarchyHierarchy

MoneyMoney

LoveLove

GloryGlory


What?What?

• CreateCreate

– E.g., create Linux software modulesE.g., create Linux software modules

• DecideDecide

– E.g., decide which Linux modules to includeE.g., decide which Linux modules to include


How? How?

CrowdCrowdIndependentIndependent DependentDependent

CreateCreate CollectionCollection CollaborationCollaboration

DecideDecide Many-to-many Many-to-many networknetwork

Group decisionGroup decision


How?How?


CreateCreate CollectionCollection

• ContestContest

CollaborationCollaboration




Gene: Collection Gene: Collection

• Create pieces that can be made mostly independently of Create pieces that can be made mostly independently of each other:each other:

– Wikipedia (collection of articles)Wikipedia (collection of articles)

– DiggDigg

– SlashdotSlashdot

– YouTubeYouTube

– ……


InnoCentiveInnoCentive

• Companies post scientific problems on websiteCompanies post scientific problems on website

– E.g., how to synthesize a certain chemical compoundE.g., how to synthesize a certain chemical compound

• Over 100,000 scientists worldwide available to solve Over 100,000 scientists worldwide available to solve problemsproblems

– Retired scientists, professors, students, contract research orgs, …Retired scientists, professors, students, contract research orgs, …

• Successful solutions get awards up to $100,000 or Successful solutions get awards up to $100,000 or moremore


Gene: ContestGene: Contest

• A subtype of Collection where one or a few items in A subtype of Collection where one or a few items in the collection are selected as winnersthe collection are selected as winners

• ExamplesExamples

– InnoCentiveInnoCentive

– TopCoderTopCoder

– Netflix prizeNetflix prize

– Yahoo AnswersYahoo Answers

– Goldcorp challengeGoldcorp challenge

– ThreadlessThreadless

– MatlabMatlab


When is the Collection gene useful?When is the Collection gene useful?

• Conditions for Crowd, plus:Conditions for Crowd, plus:

– The activity can be broken into small pieces that can be done The activity can be broken into small pieces that can be done mostly independently of each other.mostly independently of each other.

» E.g., each is a complete solution to someone’s problemE.g., each is a complete solution to someone’s problem

– There are ways for people to find the pieces they want in the There are ways for people to find the pieces they want in the collection.collection.

» E.g., the pieces are rated (in a later step) for interestingnessE.g., the pieces are rated (in a later step) for interestingness

– There are enough people who want this kind of thing in the There are enough people who want this kind of thing in the first place.first place.

– ……


When is the Contest gene useful?When is the Contest gene useful?

• Conditions for Collection, plus:Conditions for Collection, plus:

– Only one (or a few) good solutions are needed.Only one (or a few) good solutions are needed.

– People are motivated by winning the contestPeople are motivated by winning the contest» E.g., for recognition or financial reward.E.g., for recognition or financial reward.

– When whole solutions are required to enter contest:When whole solutions are required to enter contest:

» People are willing to submit a whole solution with no People are willing to submit a whole solution with no guarantee of reward.guarantee of reward.

» The creator of the contest wants to control financial risk.The creator of the contest wants to control financial risk.• No award is given unless someone solves the problemNo award is given unless someone solves the problem


How?How?






Gene: CollaborationGene: Collaboration

• Create pieces with important dependencies among Create pieces with important dependencies among themselvesthemselves

• ExamplesExamples

– Wikipedia (individual articles)Wikipedia (individual articles)

– LinuxLinux

– Climate CollaboratoriumClimate Collaboratorium


Climate CollaboratoriumClimate Collaboratorium

• Thousands of people collectively propose and analyze plans Thousands of people collectively propose and analyze plans for what humans can do about global climate changefor what humans can do about global climate change

• Plans expressed in “radically open” computer modelsPlans expressed in “radically open” computer models

• Assumptions and conclusions expressed as issues, positions, Assumptions and conclusions expressed as issues, positions, arguments (pro & con) arguments (pro & con)

• Experts and non-experts rate plausibility and desirabilityExperts and non-experts rate plausibility and desirability

• Goal: Find better plans than we would otherwise!Goal: Find better plans than we would otherwise!


When is the Collaboration gene useful?When is the Collaboration gene useful?

• Conditions for Crowd, plus:Conditions for Crowd, plus:

– There are benefits of doing large scale things, and there There are benefits of doing large scale things, and there is no satisfactory way of breaking the activity into small is no satisfactory way of breaking the activity into small independent pieces independent pieces

» Otherwise Collection would be betterOtherwise Collection would be better

– There are satisfactory ways of managing the There are satisfactory ways of managing the dependencies among the piecesdependencies among the pieces

» See alternatives for Decision geneSee alternatives for Decision gene


How?How?





•VotingVoting•ConsensusConsensus•OtherOther


Schaumburg FlyersSchaumburg Flyers

• Minor league baseball team near ChicagoMinor league baseball team near Chicago

• Through Internet voting, fans decide batting order, Through Internet voting, fans decide batting order, pitching rotation, starting line-up, and which players pitching rotation, starting line-up, and which players to trade to trade

• Goal: Reality Baseball with fans all over the world Goal: Reality Baseball with fans all over the world visiting the web site frequentlyvisiting the web site frequently

• Result: Team had disappointing season. Some people Result: Team had disappointing season. Some people blamed voting for bad results.blamed voting for bad results.


Kasparov vs. the WorldKasparov vs. the World

• Players:Players:

– Gary Kasparov (world chess champion, 1999) vs. the rest of the Gary Kasparov (world chess champion, 1999) vs. the rest of the world (moves decided by majority vote)world (moves decided by majority vote)

– Kasparov heavy favorite before play began.Kasparov heavy favorite before play began.

– Used on-line discussions, and suggestions by 5 well-known chess Used on-line discussions, and suggestions by 5 well-known chess expertsexperts

• Result: Kasparov won after 62 moves in 4 months. Result: Kasparov won after 62 moves in 4 months.

• He said it was the hardest game he ever played.He said it was the hardest game he ever played.


Gene: Prediction marketsGene: Prediction markets

• Example: HP’s prediction marketsExample: HP’s prediction markets

• Goal: Predict future sales of HP printersGoal: Predict future sales of HP printers

• Approach: Participants buy and sell Approach: Participants buy and sell predictionspredictions of of future salesfuture sales

– E.g., Buy a “share” predicting sales in Sept. E.g., Buy a “share” predicting sales in Sept. between 1501 and 1600 unitsbetween 1501 and 1600 units

» If correct: get $1If correct: get $1» If wrong: get $0If wrong: get $0


HP’s prediction markets (cont.)HP’s prediction markets (cont.)

• Participants were mostly from HP sales forceParticipants were mostly from HP sales force

• 10 sales ranges10 sales ranges

• Each person starts with 20 sharesEach person starts with 20 shares

• Market open for several days.Market open for several days.

• Result: Better predictions than official HP sales Result: Better predictions than official HP sales forecastsforecasts


Other prediction marketsOther prediction markets

• Google – no. of users for current products, launch Google – no. of users for current products, launch dates for new productsdates for new products

• Microsoft – release dates of products and internal Microsoft – release dates of products and internal toolstools

• Others – Eli Lilly drug testing, US Presidential Others – Eli Lilly drug testing, US Presidential elections, movie revenues, technological progress, . . .elections, movie revenues, technological progress, . . .


Collective predictionCollective prediction

• Goal: Combine people and computers to make best Goal: Combine people and computers to make best possible predictionspossible predictions

• Combine: Prediction markets, statistical forecastingCombine: Prediction markets, statistical forecasting

• System does routine work, people make corrections System does routine work, people make corrections when appropriatewhen appropriate

• Examples: Sales forecasts, competitor actionsExamples: Sales forecasts, competitor actions


When are the Group Decision genes When are the Group Decision genes useful?useful?

• Everyone in the group needs to abide by the same Everyone in the group needs to abide by the same decision.decision.

– What prediction will we base our plan on?What prediction will we base our plan on?

– What features will our product have?What features will our product have?

– What move will we make?What move will we make?


How?How?




•MarketMarket•Social networkSocial network



Many-to-many network examplesMany-to-many network examples

• MarketsMarkets

– iStockPhotoiStockPhoto

– Amazon Mechanical TurkAmazon Mechanical Turk

• Social networksSocial networks

– BlogosphereBlogosphere

– Google rankingsGoogle rankings

– Amazon recommendation systemAmazon recommendation system


When are the Many-to-many Network When are the Many-to-many Network genes useful?genes useful?

• Different people in the group can make their own Different people in the group can make their own choices, without being bound by the choices others choices, without being bound by the choices others make.make.

– What book will I buy?What book will I buy?

– What web page will I look at?What web page will I look at?

– What photo will I buy?What photo will I buy?


How?How?



• ContestContest



• MarketMarket

• Social networkSocial network


• VotingVoting

• ConsensusConsensus

• OtherOther


How?How?ExamplesExamples



•YouTube videosYouTube videos•Wikipedia (collection)Wikipedia (collection)•InnoCentiveInnoCentive


•LinuxLinux•Wikipedia (article)Wikipedia (article)


•iStockPhotoiStockPhoto•Google rankingsGoogle rankings


•Kasparov v. WorldKasparov v. World•Prediction marketsPrediction markets


Types of organizational genesTypes of organizational genes

What

How

Who Why

CreateCreateDecideDecide

Crowd Crowd FewFew

MoneyMoney

GloryGlory

LoveLove

CrowdCrowd

IndependentIndependent DependentDependent


DecideDecide Many-to-many Many-to-many networknetwork Group decisionGroup decision


SummarySummary

• New information technologies enable dramatic New information technologies enable dramatic new possibilities for collective intelligence.new possibilities for collective intelligence.

• To take advantage of these possibilities, we need To take advantage of these possibilities, we need to understand the distinct characteristics of to understand the distinct characteristics of different types of collective intelligence.different types of collective intelligence.

• Mapping the “genes” for four basic questions—Mapping the “genes” for four basic questions—Who, Why, What, and How—can help us do this.Who, Why, What, and How—can help us do this.


What’s coming?What’s coming?


What´s coming?What´s coming?


What´s coming?What´s coming?

There is only one time in the history of each planet There is only one time in the history of each planet when its inhabitants first wire up its innumerable when its inhabitants first wire up its innumerable parts to make one large Machine. …parts to make one large Machine. …

You and I are alive at this moment.… You and I are alive at this moment.…

--Kevin Kelly, “We Are the Web,” --Kevin Kelly, “We Are the Web,” WiredWired, 2005., 2005.


What´s coming? (cont.)What´s coming? (cont.)

[H]ere at the cusp of the third millenium… [H]ere at the cusp of the third millenium… humans began animating inert objects with tiny humans began animating inert objects with tiny slivers of intelligence, connecting them into a slivers of intelligence, connecting them into a global field, and linking their own minds into a global field, and linking their own minds into a single thing. . . . single thing. . . .



What´s coming? (cont.)What´s coming? (cont.)

[Three thousand years from now,] this will be [Three thousand years from now,] this will be recognized as the largest, most complex, and most recognized as the largest, most complex, and most surprising event on the planet. . . . surprising event on the planet. . . .

It was the Beginning. It was the Beginning.


tom malone - program for the future dec. 8

Education