today's corporate trends-where is india beginning to steal china's thunder?
TRANSCRIPT
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India 2020: What India will Look Like in the FutureTodays Corporate Trends Where is India beginning to steal Chinas Thunder?
France HoudardManaging Director
[email protected] 2011
Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.
GlobalStrategy
GlobalChallenges
Executable Solu t ions
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1Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
Why?
Preface: What Does India Look Like from Space? At Night?
Source: NASA (United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration)
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2Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
INTRODUCTION: India Structural Framework and Forward Trends . . .
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/41/Flag_of_India.svg -
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3Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. . Source: World Bank
2009 GDP*
6,4 trillionsde $ 3,6 trillionsde $
$4.1 tr $3.8 tr $9.1 tr $14.2 tr
US
China India
$14.1 tr
JapanJapan
EU-27
France
UK
Germany
2020 GDP*
$30.0 tr $13.4 tr $28.8 tr $6.8 tr $29.6 tr
US
India
China
Japan
EU-27
France
UK
Germany
The FUTURE (2020): World Bank Projects India as #3 Economy in WorldGDP* PPP-adjusted
GDP* PPP-adjusted
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Indias Middle Class: 45 million (2010) 100 million (2025)
Wealth Trend: Forward Trend in Growing Middle Class
Sources : Urbanization Rates, Population based on UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2007 ; MGI Consumer Demand 2008
27 2012 8 5
6 23 41
2514
4358
31
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
Middle Class Income Bands for Urban Household
Urban Household Income( US $ - PPP - Adjusted )
Global >= US$ 22,158
Upper Middle Class >= US$11,079 - 22,158
Lower Middle Class >= US$4,431 11,079
Poor
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Urbanization Trend: Forward Trend in Mass Migration into Cities
Indias Urban Population: 340 million (2010) 465 million (2020)
Source: World Urbanization Prospects 2007
220 290340
465 590
636
750815
847
880
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1991 2001 2008 2020 2030
Indias Urban Population Growth
Rural Population(million)
Urban Population(million)
Urbanization
0.86 billion
1.04 billion
1.2 billion
1.3 billion
1.5 billion
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Large-Scale Transportation Upgrades Catalyze Full Range of Investments
Infrastructure Trend: Can New Infrastructure Catalyze R&D & Manufacturing?
Srinagar
Chandigarh
New Delhi
Jaipur Lucknow
Bangalore
Mumbai
Chennai
Hyderabad
Gandhinagar
Guwahati
Kolkata
Bhubaneshwar
JammuPathankot
Ludhiana
Agra
Nagpur
Pune
Gwalior
Vijayawada
Coimbatore
Kochi Madurai
Vishakapatnam
CuttackBaleshwar
AllahabadVaranasi
Kanpur
Silchar Ahmedabad
SuratVadodara
Udaipur Kota
RajkotPorbandar
Golden Quadrilateral
North-South Corridor East-West Corridor
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Indias Strengthening A -Cities
Framework: Resulting A-Cities (Highest Population / Foreign Investment)
Srinagar
Chandigarh
New Delhi
Jaipur Lucknow
Bangalore
Mumbai
Chennai
Hyderabad
Gandhinagar
Guwahati
Kolkata
Bhubaneshwar
JammuPathankot
Ludhiana
Agra
Nagpur
Pune
Gwalior
Vijayawada
Coimbatore
Kochi Madurai
Vishakapatnam
CuttackBaleshwar
AllahabadVaranasi
Kanpur
Silchar Ahmedabad
SuratVadodara
Udaipur Kota
RajkotPorbandar
A-Cities Highest Population and FDI
Golden QuadrilateralNorth-South Corridor East-West Corridor
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10Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
Success in BPO Leads to Oversubscription of Key Cities
1. BPO/ITO: India Global Leader in BPO / ITO
Source: NASSCOM
Leading BPO Cities
Next Tier BPO Cities
Chandigarh
Delhi
GurgaonFaridabad
Jaipur
Vadodara Ahmedabad
Mumbai
Pune
Indore
Nagpur Kolkata
Bhubaneswar
Visakhapatnam
Kochi
Trivandrum
TiruchirappalliMadurai
A-Cities Highest Population and FDI
Noida
Lucknow
Mangalore
Coimbatore
Hyderabad
ChennaiBangalore
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11Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
IT-BPO Growth Rate @ 11.9% CAGR
1. BPO/ITO: Explosive Growth of BPO and ITO Projected through 2020
India IT-BPO Projected Growth(2010 2020F)
23 23 23 23 2350
5058 65
7388
175
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 future 2020
111 bn
225 bn
73 bn
U S D B i l l i o n
Export
Domestic
Source: NASSCOM
81 bn88 bn
96 bn
100%Increase
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12Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
New 2 nd and 3 rd Cities roughly 28% Cheaper than 1 st Tier Cities
1. BPO/ITO: and Drives Emergence of 25 New Cities for BPO
Srinagar
Ludhiana Shimla
Dehradun
Gwalior
Kanpur
Allahabad
PatnaVaranasi
Gangtok
Guwahati
Siliguri
Surat
Nashik
Bhopal
Aurangabad
Ranchi Durgapur
Raipur
Hyderabad
VijayawadaHubli-Dharwad
Mysore
Bangalore
PondicherrySalem
Leading BPO Cities
Next Tier BPO cities
Follower Cities
Aspirant Cities
A-Cities Highest Population and FDI
Chandigarh
Delhi
GurgaonFaridabad
Jaipur
Vadodara Ahmedabad
Mumbai
Pune
Indore
Nagpur Kolkata
Bhubaneswar
Visakhapatnam
Kochi
Trivandrum
TiruchirappalliMadurai
Noida
Lucknow
Mangalore
Coimbatore
Chennai
Goa
Source: NASSCOM
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13Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
The Transition: Offshoring now up Value Chain to Core Business Processes
Research & Development Sales / Marketing Production / Manufacturing
4. Resources
COST
R&D Sales
Service
Sourcing
Production /Assembly
Distribution
Engineering IT HR
F&A Procure
2. Knowledge 3. Markets
DRIVINGShareholder Value
Sales
Manufacturing
R&D
Back OfficeBPO/ITO
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The Future: and Outsourcing Core Processes to 3 rd Party Providers
Contract Outsourcing: R&D (CRO/KPO) Sales (CSO) Manufacturing (CMO)
R&D Sales
Service
Sourcing
Production /Assembly
Distribution
Engineering IT HR
F&A Procure
4. Resources
2. Knowledge 3. Markets
DRIVINGShareholder Value
CSO
CMO
CRO/KPO
Back OfficeBPO/ITO
Virtually Integrated Model
CMO
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15Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. . Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website
2. Innovation: Big Pharma Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India
Evolving Biopharmaceutical Innovation Clusters
West Bengal
Hyderabad
Kolkata
Andhra Pradesh
ArunachalPradesh
Assam
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
Gujarat
HimachalPradesh
Jammu / Kashmir
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Punjab
Rajasthan
Sikkim
Tamil Nadu
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Bangalore
Pune
Mumbai
Gurgaon
New Delhi
Goa
Manipur
Orissa
A-Cities Highest Population and FDI
HaryanaNew Delhi
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16Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. . Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website
2. Innovation: Technology Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India
Evolving Technology Innovation Clusters
West Bengal
Hyderabad
Kolkata
Andhra Pradesh
ArunachalPradesh
Assam
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
Gujarat
Haryana
HimachalPradesh
Jammu / Kashmir
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Punjab
Rajasthan
Sikkim
Tamil Nadu
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
New Delhi
Bangalore
Pune
Noida
A-Cities Highest Population and FDI
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18Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. . Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website
Evolving Chemical Innovation Clusters
2. Innovation: Chemical-Based Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India
West BengalKolkata
Andhra Pradesh
ArunachalPradesh
Assam
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
Gujarat
HimachalPradesh
Jammu / Kashmir
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Punjab
Rajasthan
Sikkim
Tamil Nadu
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Bangalore
Pune
Mumbai
Gurgaon
Vadodara
Hyderabad
A-Cities Highest Population and FDI
HaryanaNew Delhi
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19Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
3. Market/Revenues: Car Sales Proxy for Directional Market Sizing?
Car Penetration Highest in India Risking Steeply
Sources: Association of European Business; Autostat;; Other
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
RussiaBrazilChina
India
Car Penetration in BRIC(units per 1,000 people) Car Penetration in India(units per 1,000 people)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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20Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
USD28 billion Market by 2015 9 th in World
Pharmaceutical Market Size Country Ranking(USD billion)
Sources: IMS; GSK, Assessment of Opportunity for Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Emerging Markets JMCP; Monitor Analysis; Exolus
3. Market: India Projected to be Worlds 9 th Largest Pharma Market by 2015
2000USA 150
Japan 58
Germany 17France 17
UK 11
Italy 11
China 6.8
Brazil 6.7
Canada 6.3
Spain 6.2
2005USA 262
Japan 65
Germany 24France 21
UK 16
Italy 15
China 13
Brazil 10
Canada 10
Spain 9.8
2010USA 441
Japan 75
Germany 48France 39
China 34
UK 32
Italy 28
Brazil 24
Canada 22
Spain 21
2015F Top 9USA 524
China 103
Japan 85Germany 55
Brazil 47
France 44
UK 36
Italy 31
Russia 30
India 28
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21Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
3. Market: High Spending Continues through Global Economic Crisis
Sales Growing at 8.7% CAGR
Source: EIU; Business Monitor International
U S D B i l l i o n
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
CAGR = 8.7%
Retail Sales(2003 2015F)
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22Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
India Per Capita GDP(USD, PPP-Adjusted)
Manipur Mizoram
Andhra Pradesh
AssamBihar
Chhattisgarh
Goa
Gujarat
Haryana
HimachalPradesh
Jammu/Kashmir
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Meghalaya
Orissa
Punjab
RajasthanSikkim
Tamil Nadu
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
West Bengal
New Delhi
Arunachal Pradesh
Nagaland
3. Market: Significant Income Stratification Trends across India
Wealth Bands Emerging across Country
Per Capita GDP
(USD, PPP-Adjusted)> 5,600
4,200 5,600
2,800 4,200
1,400 2,800
0 1,400
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation: CIA World Factbook; Exolus Research
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24Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. . Source: World Bank Database
FDI has Spiked in India Sustained through Global Economic Crisis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Foreign Direct Investment Inflows(1990 2010)
U S D B i l l i o n
4. Production: India FDI Soars through Crisis, Strong Vote of Confidence
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25Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
4. Production: Explosive Automotive Production Deployment to India
Automotive Production Clusters
Srinagar
Chandigarh
New Delhi
Jaipur Lucknow
Bangalore
Mumbai
Chennai
Hyderabad
Gandhinagar
Guwahati
Kolkata
Bhubaneshwar
JammuPathankot
Ludhiana
Agra
Nagpur
Pune
Gwalior
Vijayawada
Coimbatore
Kochi Madurai
Vishakapatnam
CuttackBaleshwar
AllahabadVaranasi
Kanpur
Silchar Ahmedabad
SuratVadodara
Udaipur Kota
RajkotPorbandar
Mangalore
Cities with in cluster : Bangalore, Chennai, Hosur
Cities with in cluster : Baroda,Halo l, Mumbai, Pune, Nasik ,A u r an g ab ad
Cities with in cluster : Kolkata
Cities with in cluster : New Delh i, Gurgaon, Noida, Ghaziabad ,Ludh iana, Har idwar
A-Cities Highest Population and FDI
Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites
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26Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
4. Production: Big Pharma Production Deploying to India
Biotechnology and Biopharmaceutical Production Clusters
Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites
Srinagar
Chandigarh
New Delhi
Jaipur Lucknow
Bangalore
Mumbai
Chennai
Hyderabad
Gandhinagar
Guwahati
Kolkata
Bhubaneshwar
JammuPathankot
Ludhiana
Agra
Nagpur
Pune
Gwalior
Vijayawada
Coimbatore
Kochi Madurai
Vishakapatnam
CuttackBaleshwar
AllahabadVaranasi
Kanpur
Silchar Ahmedabad
SuratVadodara
Udaipur Kota
RajkotPorbandar
Mangalore
A-Cities Highest Population and FDI
Cities with in cluster : Bangalore, Chennai
Cities with in cluster : Goa, Mumbai,daman, Nasik , Thane, Aurangabad
Cities with in cluster : Baroda, Ankleshwar
A h med ab ad ,
Cities with in cluster : Manesar, Jammu, Baddi,Pantnagar
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27Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
4. Production: Technology Production Deploying to India
Technology Hardware Production Clusters
Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites
Srinagar
Chandigarh
New Delhi
Jaipur Lucknow
Bangalore
Mumbai
Chennai
Hyderabad
Gandhinagar
Guwahati
Kolkata
Bhubaneshwar
JammuPathankot
Ludhiana
Agra
Nagpur
Pune
Gwalior
Vijayawada
Coimbatore
Kochi Madurai
Vishakapatnam
CuttackBaleshwar
AllahabadVaranasi
Kanpur
Silchar Ahmedabad
SuratVadodara
Udaipur Kota
RajkotPorbandar
Mangalore
A-Cities Highest Population and FDI
Cities with in cluster : Bangalore,Chennai
Cities with in cluster : K o lk a ta
Cities with in cluster : Baddi,Mansear
Cities with in cluster : Pune,Hyderabad
F Wh P O i l M k /R /I i E l ?
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28Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
Future: Where are Pareto-Optimal Market/Resource/Innovation Envelopes?
Intersection of Wealth + Production Clusters + R&D Hubs + A-Cities
Per Capita GDP(USD, PPP-Adjusted)
> 5,6004,200 5,600
2,800 4,200
1,400 2,800
0 1,400
Per Capita GDP(USD, PPP-Adjusted)
> 5,600
4,200 5,600
2,800 4,200
1,400 2,800
0 1,400
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation: CIA World Factbook; Exolus Research
Manipur
Mizoram
Nagaland
Arunachal Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
AssamBihar
Chhattisgarh
Goa
Gujarat
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu / Kashmir
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Meghalaya
Orissa
Punjab
RajasthanSikkim
Tamil Nadu
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
West Bengal
New Delhi
A-Cities Highest Population and FDI
GurgaonNoida
Innovation Hub
Production Cluster
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29Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
Indias Economic Health
S i E ti S l t I di Att ti D ti ti
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30Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .
Senior Executives Select India as Attractive Destination
India Top-3 Investment Destination in World
Source: World Investment Prospects 2009 - 2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
C h i n a
U n
i t e d S t a t e s
I n d i a
B r a z
i l
R u s s
i a
U . K .
G e r m a n y
A u s
t r a
l i a
I n d o n e s
i a
C a n a
d a
V i e t n a m
M e x i c o
P o
l a n
d
F r a n c e
Top 14 Most Attractive Destinations for Future Investment
(2009 2011)%
P e r c e n
t o
f R e s p o n s e s
India Economic Outlook: Large Forex Reserves Healthy Banking System
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India Economic Outlook: Large Forex Reserves, Healthy Banking System
Worlds 7 th Largest Forex Reserves Low Non - Performance Loan Healthy CAGR
India Holds The Worlds 7th Largest Foreign Exchange Reserves: USD 316 billion
In 2011 the Central Bank has accumulated over USD 316 billion in foreign reserves, from USD 38
billions in year 2000 at CAGR 23.6%.
The accumulation of large external surplus means financial system enjoys abundant liquidity.
Low Bank Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans
Bank non-performing loans decreased to 2% in 2010, from 13% in 2000.
Robust Growth in Indias Banking System
Commercial bank deposits in India increased at CARG 18.5% from 2001 to 2009.
Commercial bank credit in India grew at CARG at 23% from 2001 to 2009
Source: RBI
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For a Comparative Perspective with the other BRIC Countries
Please Refer to the Following Research Reports
Found on Slideshare @http://www.slideshare.net/contest/worlds-best-presentation-contest-2010/entries
http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/brazil-2020-what-will-brazil-look-like-in-the-future
http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/russia-2020-what-will-russia-look-like-in-the-future
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China 2020 Brazil 2020 Russia 2020
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