Today: Today:

More tools for analysis, including More tools for analysis, including Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development

Week 6, October 5Week 6, October 5, 1998, 1998Dr. Vincent Duffy - IEEMDr. Vincent Duffy - IEEM

http://www-ieem.ust.hk/dfaculty/duffy/111 email: vduffy@ust.hkemail: vduffy@ust.hk

SOSC 111 - Science Technology and Society

administrative For those who did oral presentation, please leave a For those who did oral presentation, please leave a

copy of your slides for me (sometime this week after copy of your slides for me (sometime this week after the holidays) the holidays)

note: Monday, 5th evening -holiday note: Monday, 5th evening -holiday this affects section 3this affects section 3

as agreed in class, lecture for section 3 will be held at as agreed in class, lecture for section 3 will be held at 12noon on Monday12noon on Monday 6people will go to either lecture 1 or lecture 36people will go to either lecture 1 or lecture 3 all others are expected to attend at 12 noonall others are expected to attend at 12 noon venue 4480venue 4480

First: Two more ‘tools for analysis’

Path dependence Path dependence Technological momentumTechnological momentum

then...a look at two old ‘tools’ in a new waythen...a look at two old ‘tools’ in a new way consider ‘complimentary technologies and consider ‘complimentary technologies and

‘technological interdependence’‘technological interdependence’ consider...what is one problem related to consider...what is one problem related to

‘complimentary technologies’?‘complimentary technologies’? Finally, a discussion about sustainable Finally, a discussion about sustainable

developmentdevelopment

Why do we have the arrangement of keys on the keyboard (for computers) that we have today?

QWERTYQWERTY

QWERTY UIOP[ ASDFG HJKL; ZXCVB NM,./

Why?

KLMNO PQRST ABCDE VWX; FGHIJ YZ,./

AEIOU Y

Why not?

Why not?

picture of typewriter

Why do we have the keyboard we have today?

QWERTY keyboard for computersQWERTY keyboard for computers People were already familiar with typing that way.People were already familiar with typing that way. A product of technological decisions of the pastA product of technological decisions of the past

The technological decisions of today affect The technological decisions of today affect technological decisions of tomorrowtechnological decisions of tomorrow

What do we call this?What do we call this? Path DependencePath Dependence Q.1 What is an example of path dependence?Q.1 What is an example of path dependence?

Technological momentum Q.2. What is an example of technological momentum?Q.2. What is an example of technological momentum? Many times we have the opportunity/choice to change Many times we have the opportunity/choice to change

technology, but we choose the same technology technology, but we choose the same technology anyway.anyway. Built into our biases or interestsBuilt into our biases or interests eg. If diesel fuel company was a big sponsor for the eg. If diesel fuel company was a big sponsor for the

community chest (sponsor for sporting events), we might community chest (sponsor for sporting events), we might not want to change to LPG because of interests (for reasons not want to change to LPG because of interests (for reasons other than the technology or other than pollution)other than the technology or other than pollution)

can be money/political reasonscan be money/political reasons

Another example windows 98, do we have to choose it?windows 98, do we have to choose it?

If we buy a new PC we do If we buy a new PC we do because microsoft makes so many of the products because microsoft makes so many of the products

(compatibility). Their large market share limits our choices to (compatibility). Their large market share limits our choices to some extent. some extent.

You might not even take a free operating system if it is You might not even take a free operating system if it is offered to you because of the chance it may not work the offered to you because of the chance it may not work the same with your MS-Word or Powerpointsame with your MS-Word or Powerpoint

your choices related to internet browsers may become limited your choices related to internet browsers may become limited in the future for similar reasons of in the future for similar reasons of money/power/influence/bias rather than the effectiveness of money/power/influence/bias rather than the effectiveness of the technologythe technology

these seem a bit similar right? (technological these seem a bit similar right? (technological momentum and path dependence, right? momentum and path dependence, right?

what is the difference between path dependence and what is the difference between path dependence and momentum?momentum?

• technological momentum - our choices are not due to technological momentum - our choices are not due to technology, but due to other thingstechnology, but due to other things

• path dependence - technology choice depends on other path dependence - technology choice depends on other past technologies usedpast technologies used

...a look at two old ‘tools’ in a new way...a look at two old ‘tools’ in a new way consider ‘complimentary technologies and consider ‘complimentary technologies and

‘technological interdependence’‘technological interdependence’ consider...what is one problem related to consider...what is one problem related to

‘complimentary technologies’?‘complimentary technologies’?

Problems of complementary technologies (related to technological interdependence) Technological InterdependenceTechnological Interdependence

Technologies depend on other technologies for their Technologies depend on other technologies for their use.use.

example example automobileautomobile– roads and bridges, traffic signalsroads and bridges, traffic signals

Complementary technolgiesComplementary technolgies Technologies that can be used with each other but Technologies that can be used with each other but

do not require one anotherdo not require one another together they complement (enhance) the othertogether they complement (enhance) the other

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Questions of the Day

Previously: Can you give an Previously: Can you give an example of complimentary example of complimentary technologies? technologies? Q.3 What is a one problem that can occur Q.3 What is a one problem that can occur

because of complemenary technologies? because of complemenary technologies? (related to technological interdependence)(related to technological interdependence)

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insert figure of bridge here See: article …bridge crash alert SCMP, See: article …bridge crash alert SCMP,

March ‘97March ‘97 what happens if the bridge is collapsed due what happens if the bridge is collapsed due

to a crash?to a crash? …….what would happen at the airport?.what would happen at the airport?

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Questions of the Day

Q.3 What is a one problem that can occur Q.3 What is a one problem that can occur because of complemenary technologies? because of complemenary technologies? (related to technological interdependence)(related to technological interdependence)

if there was a problem with the Tsing Ma if there was a problem with the Tsing Ma Bridge, there would be a slowdown of Bridge, there would be a slowdown of airtraffic, people would miss their flight, airtraffic, people would miss their flight, buses stuck on the bridge, etc.buses stuck on the bridge, etc.

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Questions of the Day

Q.3 What is a one problem that can occur Q.3 What is a one problem that can occur because of complemenary technologies? because of complemenary technologies? (related to technological interdependence)(related to technological interdependence)

similarly…what if bus drivers went on similarly…what if bus drivers went on strike and decided not to drive on day? strike and decided not to drive on day? MTR riders would suffer because they have MTR riders would suffer because they have come to depend on the bus.come to depend on the bus.

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Questions of the Day Q.3 What is a one problem that can occur because of Q.3 What is a one problem that can occur because of

complemenary technologies? (related to technological complemenary technologies? (related to technological interdependence)interdependence) How are these examples of problems with complimentary How are these examples of problems with complimentary

technologies related to technological interdependence?technologies related to technological interdependence? Note: the bridge doesn’t need the airport to function and Note: the bridge doesn’t need the airport to function and

theairport doesn’t need the bridgetheairport doesn’t need the bridge However, when the technologies are used to the extent that However, when the technologies are used to the extent that

we rely (depend) on them in our daily routine, then the we rely (depend) on them in our daily routine, then the effects of a problem (with one complimentary technology) effects of a problem (with one complimentary technology) can be similar to that of technological interdependencecan be similar to that of technological interdependence

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Economic growth: What is it? Economic growth: What is it?

Measured by Gross National ProductMeasured by Gross National Product– sum of all personal and governmentt sum of all personal and governmentt

expenditures on goods and services in expenditures on goods and services in a country, including the value of net a country, including the value of net exports.exports.

What has come with it?What has come with it?– industrialization, and concentration of industrialization, and concentration of

population in the cities, increased population in the cities, increased energy consumption and energy consumption and environmental side-effectsenvironmental side-effects

Why do we need it?Why do we need it? Are we just greedy and want more Are we just greedy and want more

$ $

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insert population graph

recall?recall?

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Implications of population Implications of population growthgrowth In article In article

– increase H.K. Population expected increase H.K. Population expected – more than 8 Million people by 2011more than 8 Million people by 2011

Increased need for:Increased need for:– housing, roads, sewers and water housing, roads, sewers and water

mainsmains– extended water and waste treatmentextended water and waste treatment– extensions to hospitals, fire stationsextensions to hospitals, fire stations– new schools, , libraries new schools, , libraries – shopping centers, karaokeshopping centers, karaoke

Environmental implications?Environmental implications?7

Environmental impact?

recallrecall acid rainacid rain deforestationdeforestation air pollution in citiesair pollution in cities london killer foglondon killer fog fish in Patten Lakefish in Patten Lake

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Tradeoffs - with Tradeoffs - with improvements come some improvements come some problems as well problems as well Recall…in meeting the basic needs Recall…in meeting the basic needs

of the growing population….of the growing population…. Increased pesticides - Increased pesticides -

– increased agriculture outputincreased agriculture output– increased side effects to lakes, increased side effects to lakes,

streams, etc.streams, etc. Increased autos, trucks -Increased autos, trucks -

– increased efficiency of transport of increased efficiency of transport of goodsgoods

– increased air pollution, etc.increased air pollution, etc.9

HK…see articleHK…see article ‘‘A grim outlook for our ecology’A grim outlook for our ecology’

‘‘potential loss of habitat and destruction of potential loss of habitat and destruction of fragile ecosystems would be….considerable’fragile ecosystems would be….considerable’

Elsewhere…trouble tooElsewhere…trouble too attempt to get solutions:attempt to get solutions:

United Nations meeting in 1992 in Rio de JanieroUnited Nations meeting in 1992 in Rio de Janiero focus on international policy to manage the focus on international policy to manage the

environmentenvironment

What about Hong Kong? What about Hong Kong? Elsewhere?Elsewhere?

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Question of the day

Q.4. Sustainable development. Q.4. Sustainable development. What is it?What is it? How can we measure How can we measure it?it?

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Sustainable Development: Sustainable Development: What is it?What is it?

term defined in 1987 by term defined in 1987 by – World Commission for Economic World Commission for Economic

DevelopmentDevelopment Development that meets the needs Development that meets the needs

of the present without compromising of the present without compromising the futurethe future

or meet the needs of today without or meet the needs of today without compromising the ability of future compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needsgenerations to meet their own needs

How can we measure it?How can we measure it? 12

Measuring Sustainable development recall Economic Growth?recall Economic Growth?

Measured by Gross National ProductMeasured by Gross National Product– sum of all personal and gov’t expenditures on sum of all personal and gov’t expenditures on

goods and services in a country, including the value goods and services in a country, including the value of net exports.of net exports.

One way to measure Sustainable developmentOne way to measure Sustainable development Gross environment improvement- Gross environment improvement- as a component of GNP that includes:as a component of GNP that includes:

the costs of environmental improvments needed to restore the the costs of environmental improvments needed to restore the environmentenvironment

such as reforestation, or pollution control measuressuch as reforestation, or pollution control measures eg. Costs of IS0 14000eg. Costs of IS0 14000

What does it mean for us What does it mean for us as engineers?as engineers?

Previously:Previously:– engineers, scientists & businessengineers, scientists & business

were held to principles of efficiency, were held to principles of efficiency, productivity, profitability, and other productivity, profitability, and other economic criteriaeconomic criteria

now/future now/future – Challenged to include concerns about:Challenged to include concerns about:– health and environmental impacts, health and environmental impacts,

resource and energy consumption, resource and energy consumption, conservation, waste management, conservation, waste management, unemploymentunemployment

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Exam review next Wednesday October 7review next Wednesday October 7 exam Friday October 9exam Friday October 9 format multiple choice and short answerformat multiple choice and short answer

a sample exam is on the www homepagea sample exam is on the www homepage readingsreadings See tutorial 9 for discussion of sustainable development & See tutorial 9 for discussion of sustainable development &

tutorial 7 momentum and path dependencytutorial 7 momentum and path dependency handout in class - ‘grim outlook for our ecology’, ‘bridge handout in class - ‘grim outlook for our ecology’, ‘bridge

crash alert’ from SCMP and 1 page on sustainable crash alert’ from SCMP and 1 page on sustainable development development

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