tocico conference 2009 fast thinking process tools part 1: the crt an overview for toc experts

1© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.

TOCICO 2009 Conference

TOCICO CONFERENCE 2009

Fast Thinking Process ToolsPart 1: The CRT

An overview for TOC ExpertsPresented By: James R. HoltPresented By: James R. HoltProfessor, Washington State UniversityProfessor, Washington State UniversityDate:Date: June, 2009June, 2009

Why not complete a full TP analysis during this class?

Part 1 of 3 What to Change? Fast!

Part 2 of 3 What to Change to? Fast!

Part 3 of 3 How to Cause the Change? Fast!

2

© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.


Disclaimer

• This material is prepared for TOC Experts. While lots can be learned by a TOC Novice, the material assumes a fairly solid understanding of the role of the Thinking Process Tools within the body of TOC knowledge.

• This material touches upon all the topics of the TOC Thinking Process but should not be considered a full course in the Thinking Process.

• The material is probably sufficient of a review for a TOC Expert prior to taking the TOCICO Thinking Process Exam. Novices are advised to perform several full, successful TP analyses prior to taking the TOCICO Thinking Process Exam.

• The material represents a part of my best understanding and does not attempt to eliminate other excellent approaches nor imply that these contents include all that should be known

• Keep Thinking!

• Dr Holt

3



References:

• Credit goes to the Avraham Y. Goldratt Institute for formalizing the early Thinking Process and for giving it freely to academics world wide. And to all those who contributed to my knowledge gained in snippets from a multitude of sources.

• Goldratt’s Theory of Constraints: A Systems Approach to Continuous Improvement, H. William Dettmer, Quality Press, ISBN 0-973389-370-0, 1997.

• The Logical Thinking Process: A Systems Approach to Complex Problem Solving, H. William Dettmer, Quality Press, ISBN 978-0-87389-723-5, 2007.

• Thinking for a Change: Putting the TOC Thinking Processes to Use, Lisa J. Scheinkopf, St. Lucie Press, ISBN 1-57444-101-0, 1999.

• It’s Not Luck, Eliyahu M. Goldratt, The North River Press, ISBN 0-88427-115-3, 1994.

• The Choice, Eliyahu M. Goldratt, The North River Press, ISBN 978-0-88427-189-5, 2008.

• Visual Thinking, James R. Holt & Richard A. Reid, Whoever will Print it, ISBN Soon, 2010.

• Washington State University, for supporting the fifteen-year long development of the Fast TP tools as part of EM 526 Constraints Management and EM 534 Contemporary Topics in Constraints Management http://www.engrmgt.wsu.edu/

• TOCICO Thinking Process Exam http://www.tocico.org/i4a/pages/index.cfm?pageid=3316

4



CRT History – Why it’s the TP So CRT History – Why it’s the TP So Hard?Hard?

• In the Early days (1990), Trees were Positive Trees and Negative Trees. The CRT was a Negative one.

• The relationships were called: Effect-Cause-Effect.

• The existence of very entity we proposed as a Cause had to be confirmed using Predicted Effect.

Effect

Proposed Cause

Effect confirming the

existence of the common cause

5



Driving / Diving Down is Tough!Driving / Diving Down is Tough!

• Eli drove down four layers to get to the core Problem of the Sales Marketing Tree.

• It took so much energy that he created a two day seminar just to explain it.

• That seminar formed the basis for IT’S NOT LUCK

Effect

Proposed Cause

Entity confirming the existence of the

cause

Proposed Cause


cause

Proposed Cause


cause

6



Refined CRT ProcessRefined CRT Process

• By 1992 the full Thinking Process process was created and taught by the Avraham Y. Goldratt Institute. The first public documentation of the UDE approach was documented by Bill Dettmer in Goldratt’s Theory of Constraints: A System Approach to Continuous Improvement.

• This didn’t do away with Effect-Cause-Effect, it just simplified it.

• After the CRT was formed, an inquiring mind could examine the CRT looking for conflicts and synthesize them into the Evaporating Cloud. Those who did this, learned a lot from the struggle.

7



The Communications The Communications Current Reality TreeCurrent Reality Tree

• Once a Current Reality Tree was created and a Core Problem selected, the CRT was studied to see the opposite sides of the cloud.

Entity

UDE

Entity

UDE

Entity

UDE

Entity

UDE

Entity

UDE

Entity

UDE

Entity

UDE

Entity

UDE

Entity

UDE

Entity

UDE

? ?• By magic, a Core Conflict

was created which justified the continued existence of the Core Problem.

PreRequisite

Need Need

GoalAssumption

Assumption

Assumption

Assumption

Assumption

Confusion

• The Core Conflict is inserted to Create the Communications CRT.

8



Still later, CRTsStill later, CRTs

• About mid-1990s, the Three-Cloud approached emerged as a quicker way to get to the Core Problem (Core Conflict).

• Using several Evaporating Clouds on dispersed UDEs up front helps find a Core Conflict early and accelerates the CRT Process.

• Then, the CRT became more of a ‘confirmation step’ to insure the correct core conflict had been discovered.

• The CRT is still a tool of discovery!

9



The Current State of the TOC The Current State of the TOC Thinking ProcessThinking Process

• The Three Cloud Approach has proven very helpful in speeding the CRT process.

• But, it’s not 100% perfect. There are times when the there is a Core Problem.

• The Three Cloud Approach can push you to Pre-Conceived problems.

• Luckily, the Robust nature of the TP’s alternating Necessary Based Logic and Sufficiency Based Logic (along with liberal use of the Categories of Legitimate Reservations) form a Self-Correcting Process.

• The difficulty in creating a full TP process still blocked implementations.

• How to do it EASIER, FASTER, and MORE CONFIDENT?

10



Obstacles to Thinking!Obstacles to Thinking!

• Injection: Use the Thinking Processes (they are EXCEPTIONAL!)

• But, those who know them and should be using them are often blocked because:

− The are hard to use

− They take a lot of time

− The are mental anguish

− They expose our own weaknesses

− They point out what we don’t know

− They can be too easily criticized (scrutinized) by even those who know much less than we know.

− “We already have a solution; we don’t need to think again.”O

bst

acle

sO

bst

acle

s

IO The Thinking IO The Thinking Process can be Process can be used effectively used effectively within an hour.within an hour.

11



Introducing the Fast TOC ToolsIntroducing the Fast TOC Tools

• 1. Clear UDEs

• 2. Three Cloud Approach

• 3. CRT Template

• 4. Key Injections

• 5. FRT Template

• 6. PRT Template

• 7. TRT for Implementing

12



What is the Goal of the CRT?Why do it? What need does it fulfill?

• Creating a CRT Surfaces our intuition

−Often generates missing intuition

−Develops / strengthens our understanding

−Helps us find the Core Problem/Erroneous Assumptions

−Validates the Core Conflict

−Gains Buy-In/Cooperation on the problem needing to be solved (from those often far removed from the core)

13



Start with Good, Well Stated Start with Good, Well Stated UDEsUDEs

• Every System has UDEs.

• Everyone in the system can expose a few UDEs. Some people can expose many.

• Any system can be found to be complex.

• Complex interwoven interactions contain just a few root causes.

• Everyone can connect some valid ‘cause and effect’.

• Everyone thinks.

• Everyone is good.

• So, How many UDEs do you need?

14



10. We have 10. We have a complex a complex systemsystem

12. Complex 12. Complex systems have systems have just a few root just a few root causes.causes.

14. We need to 14. We need to find the few root find the few root causescauses

16. Adding 16. Adding complexity does complexity does not make not make systems simplersystems simpler

18. We are looking for 18. We are looking for a simple solutiona simple solution

22. Everyone 22. Everyone thinks.thinks.

26. Everyone 26. Everyone is goodis good

24. Every 24. Every system has system has UDEs.UDEs.26. Everyone 26. Everyone

can connect can connect some ‘cause some ‘cause and effect’and effect’

30. A solution 30. A solution should have been should have been found by now.found by now.

32. Systems are blocked by 32. Systems are blocked by some assumptions about reality.some assumptions about reality.

34. Solutions to exist34. Solutions to exist

40. TOC Experts know a lot 40. TOC Experts know a lot about root assumptions and about root assumptions and their solution in wide their solution in wide variety of complex systems.variety of complex systems.

42. We only need enough UDEs to validate 42. We only need enough UDEs to validate the assumption/solution (in most cases).the assumption/solution (in most cases).

15



With Few UDES…With Few UDES…

• If only a few UDEs are selected, they must be well selected, and worded.

• UDEs are real Problems, Annoyances or Concerns. - Not Facts of Life (that must be later invalided) - Not Absence of a Solution (causing pre-conceived direction.) - Not Tautologies (they cause self-justification; sneaking errors into the analysis). - Clearly negative. - A Full sentence. - Not a Compound Sentence. - Diverse but within the selected subject domain.

16



From UDEs to the Three Cloud From UDEs to the Three Cloud ApproachApproach

• The Three Cloud Approach seeks out the core conflict from three different views—sort of triangulation.

• The core conflict is then validated with the Current Reality Tree

• To start, we need three or more clouds drawn from the UDEs of concern.

• Then, we can combine the three clouds through some creative manipulation of language into the core conflict.

• Let’s look some UDEs from Project Management

17



Some Project Management Some Project Management UDEs UDEs

Our people are overworked

There is too much rework

There are fights about priorities

between projects

Too often resources are not available when needed

There are too many changes

Original due dates are not met

Necessary things (information,

specifications, materials, etc.) are not

available on time

There are budget over-runs

There are too many expensive

corrective actions

Taken from: Draft manuscript of Project Management the TOC Way, by Eli Goldratt

The Clients needs keep changingNever enough

time

18



Select an UDE and Create an “One Select an UDE and Create an “One UDE Cloud”UDE Cloud”

There are too many expensive

corrective actionsYou may have to reword the UDE to further describe what you mean

D. Take some expensive corrective actions (or trim the

project content).

19



Build the First ECBuild the First EC

D1. Take some expensive corrective actions (or trim the

project content).

D1’. Don’t take expensive corrective actions (or trim the

project content).

B1. Bring the schedule back on

track

C1. Do not jeopardize the original

commitment for content (stay in

budget)

A1. Do what we say we will do

Story line: It seems there is always trouble with the schedule. To catch up, we must take serious corrective action or cut out something.

Assumption: Otherwise, we will miss due date

Jeopardy?

Jeopardy?

20



Select Second UDE and Create Select Second UDE and Create another One UDE Cloud another One UDE Cloud (from a slightly different area)(from a slightly different area)

The Clients needs keep changingYou may have to

reword the UDE to fit the “Necessary Logic” structure and describe what you mean

D. Make changes as the client requests

21



Build the Second ECBuild the Second EC

D2. Make changes as the client

requests

D2’. Don’t make the changes

B2. Honor our commitment to deliver what the

client really needs

C2. Meet the original due date and budget

commitments

A2. Deliver

Story line: Just when things are going great, the client changes their mind. This raises havoc with the job and other jobs.

Assumption: Client demands the change

22



Select another UDE and Create a Select another UDE and Create a Third One UDE CloudThird One UDE Cloud

There is too much reworkAgain, you may have

to reword the UDE to further describe what you mean

D. Do Rework

23



Build a Third ECBuild a Third EC

D3. Do Rework

D3’. Don’t do Rework

B3. Take actions to secure meeting the intended content

C3. Be within the original budget and time commitment

A3. Meet all the demands

Story line: We started the project as soon as possible (before specifications) to meet the tight schedule. And changes happen.

Assumption: We could never meet the schedule otherwise

24



With the Three Clouds ...With the Three Clouds ...

• Now you have three independent conflict statements of the problem area.

• Make sure each cloud is well constructed according to the basic guidelines.

• Each statement should represent the accepted situation (even though the logic contains some enormous intuition--causal assumptions--that you have learned to identify already)

• We Don’t try to evaporate these clouds now.

• We are looking for the Core Conflict

25



Now we are ready to Now we are ready to TriangulateTriangulate

D1.

D1’.

B1.

C1.

A1.

D3.

D3’.

B3.

C3.

A3.

D2.

D2’.

B2.

C2.

A2.

We want to dive down and find what really needs to be changed.

Use the intuition we have to find more!

26



This is the idea.This is the idea.

D1.

D1’

B1.

C1.

A1.

D2.

D2’

B2.

C2.

A2.

D3.

D3’

B3.

C3.

A3.

27



This is the idea.This is the idea.D

1. D

1’

B1.

C1.

A

1.

D2

D2

’

B2

.

C2

.

A2

.

D3.

D3’

B3.

C3.

A3.

CD

CD’

CB.

CC.

CA.

28



How To Match them Up:How To Match them Up:

D1.

D1’

B1.

C1.

A1.

D2.

D2’

B2.

C2.

A2.

D3.

D3’

B3.

C3.

A3.

CD

CD’

CB.

CC.

CA.

Continue creating each Core Conflict entity from the three corresponding entities of the three clouds.

29



We cluster the concepts to arrive at We cluster the concepts to arrive at the Core Conflict Entitythe Core Conflict Entity

CD

CD’

CB.

CC.

CA.

A1.

A2.

A3.

B1. B2.

B3.

D1. D2.

D3.

C1.

C2.

C3. D1’ D2’

D3’

You’ll need some creative wordsmithing to create one statement out of many.

30



Example: Project ManagementThe Goal?

A1. Meet Schedule and

Budget Commitments

A2. Meet Delivery and

Budget Commitments

A3. Meet Content and

Budget Commitments

AC. Meet original

commitments

Usually easy. AC is pretty straight forward in this example.

Something more general in nature than the individual cloud goals.

What is the overriding purpose of this area of focus?

31



What is the Thing We are Forced to Do That We Don’t Want to Do?

D2. Make changes as the client requests

AC. Meet original commitments

D1. Take some expensive

corrective actions (or trim the project

content).

D3. Do Rework

DC. Compensate for early mis-

estimates or mis-considerations

We are looking here for the BIG

‘D UDE ’

32



The Opposite, DC’ is Easier

D’3. Don’t do Rework


DC. Compensate for early mis-estimates or

mis-considerations

D2’. Don’t make the changes

D1’. Don’t take expensive

corrective actions (or trim the project

content).

DC’. Don’t Compensate for

early mis-estimates or mis-

considerations

33



Finding Common BC



mis-considerations

DC’. Don’t Compensate for early mis-estimates or mis-considerations

B2. Honor our commitment to deliver what the

client really needs

B3. Take actions to secure meeting the intended content

B1. Bring the schedule back on

track

BC. Do whatever it takes to meet

endangered commitment

34



Achieving Common CC



mis-considerations

DC’. Don’t Compensate for early mis-estimates or mis-considerations

BC. Do whatever it takes to meet endangered commitment

C1. Do not jeopardize the

original commitment for content (stay in

budget)C2. Meet the original due date

and budget commitments

C3. Be within the original

budget and time commitment

CC. Don’t Jeopardize any

other commitment

35



Finally, the Core Conflict Cloud C3

AC. Meet original

commitments

DC. Compensate for early mis-

estimates or mis-considerations

DC’. Don’t Compensate for

early mis-estimates or mis-

considerations

BC. Do whatever it takes to meet

endangered commitment

CC. Don’t Jeopardize any

other commitment

(This one is sometimes called a ‘Generic Cloud’, if it is the Generic Problem’ of a whole industry or system)

36



Here is another example from Team Here is another example from Team Management. Management.

BHave a High

Degree of Group

Cooperation

CEncourage Individual

Contribution

DBase Recognition

on TeamPerformance

Not DDo Not Base

Recognition on TeamPerformance

AHave a

Successful Team

Take the Core Conflict Cloud and Rotate it.

Not DBase

Recognition on IndividualPerformance

http://www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/holt/em526/TeamCRT.gif

The full Team Management CRT is at:

37



Now it’s On endNow it’s On end

BH

ave

a H

igh

D

egre

e o

f G

rou

p

Co

op

erat

ion

CE

nco

ura

ge

Ind

ivid

ual

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n

DB

ase

Rec

og

nit

ion

on

Te

amP

erfo

rman

ce

No

t D

Ba

se

R

ec

og

nit

ion

on

In

div

idu

al

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e

AH

ave

a S

ucc

ess

ful

Tea

m

38



Turn the Arrows AroundTurn the Arrows Around

Have a Successful Team

Encourage individual

contribution

Base Recognition on

IndividualPerformance

Base rewards on team

performance

High degree of group

cooperation

39



Adjust the working to “If .. Then …” Adjust the working to “If .. Then …” LogicLogic

Have a Successful Team

Encourage individual

contribution

Don’t base rewards on team

performanceBase rewards on

team performance

High degree of group

cooperation

We want to have a Successful Team

We need individual

contributions

There is pressure to base rewards on

individual performance


team performance

We need a high degree of group

cooperation

40



Add in at least one Assumption for Add in at least one Assumption for each arrow each arrow (the one you want to break)(the one you want to break)

We want to have a

Successful Team

We need individual

contributions



There is pressure to base rewards

on team performance


cooperation

Effective teams have a high degree

of synergy

Individuals tend to perform in

accordance with measurements

The team’s work is mostly

individual effort

Individuals respond to individual rewards

Team tasks frequently change (and are often self-

determined

Individuals don’t really know how they

will be measured.

41



Notice the Key Words Added. Notice the Key Words Added.

They help you make your flipThey help you make your flip

We want ...

We need …

There is pressure to not …

There is pressure to …

We need …

(Assumption)

(Assumption)

(Assumption)

(Assumption)

Confusion

(Assumption)

42



Note the Mapping back to the Note the Mapping back to the Original Core Conflict CloudOriginal Core Conflict Cloud

We want to have a

Successful Team

We need individual

contributions



There is pressure to base rewards

on team performance


cooperation

Effective teams have a high degree

of synergy

Individuals tend to perform in


The team’s work is mostly

individual effort

Individuals respond to individual rewards

Team tasks frequently change (and are often self-

determined

Individuals don’t really know how they

will be measured.

43


TOCICO 2009 Conference162 Individual will look more towards individual success

(local Optima)

Extending Upwards Extending Upwards is now Easyis now Easy

100 We want to have a Successful Team

135 We need individual

contributions

150 There is pressure to base rewards on


145 There is pressure to base rewards on team

performance

130 We need a high degree of

group cooperation

110 Effective teams have a high degree of

synergy

125 Individuals tend to perform in


120 The team’s work is mostly individual effort

140 Individuals respond to

individual rewards

151 Team tasks frequently change (and

are often self-determined

160 Individuals don’t really know how they

will be measured.

164 Individuals will not believe their

individual performance matters all that much to the

organization.

44


TOCICO 2009 Conference162 Individual will look more towards individual success

(local Optima)

The Ice Cream The Ice Cream Cone ShapeCone Shape

100 We want to have a Successful Team

135 We need individual

contributions

150 There is pressure to base rewards on


145 There is pressure to base rewards on team

performance

130 We need a high degree of

group cooperation

110 Effective teams have a high degree of

synergy

125 Individuals tend to perform in


120 The team’s work is mostly individual effort

140 Individuals respond to

individual rewards

151 Team tasks frequently change (and

are often self-determined

160 Individuals don’t really know how they

will be measured.

164 Individuals will not believe their

individual performance matters all that much to the

organization.

45



The Revised Ice Cream Cone The Revised Ice Cream Cone BaseBase

D’D

CBA

Conflict Confusion

There is pressure to do D

There is pressure to NOT do D

Region of Not D

Region of Not D’

46



The Cone Shape Then Leads The Cone Shape Then Leads to...to...

• The addition to the Base divides the CRT quickly

D’D

CBA

NOT D’ NOT D

NOT B

• If you don’t have D (Not D) then you can’t expect to have B (Not B)

NOT C • If you don’t have D’ (Not D’), then you can’t expect to have C (Not C)

NOT A

• If you don’t have B (Not B) nor C (Not C), you can’t expect to achieve A (Not A)

47



Regional Map of a CRTRegional Map of a CRT

D’D

CBA

NOT D’

NOT B

NOT D

NOT C

NOT A•Using the Regional Map allows the CRT to Build up quickly

•Shows what is missing

•Allows a Thinking Process person to view the CRT and Scrutinize Quickly

48



Where Are Your UDEs?Where Are Your UDEs?

D’D

CBA

NOT D’

NOT B

NOT D

NOT C

NOT AUDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

May have a region that needs to be checked out! Did you miss something?

Being able to organize your UDEs by the Regional Map (similar to Black Boarding) simplifies and speeds up the CRT Creation Process.

49



Don’t Force the RegionsDon’t Force the Regions

D’D

CBA

NOT D’

NOT B

NOT D

NOT C

NOT AUDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

Don’t put artificial UDEs in your Tree “just because”.

“Check them out.”

Regions tend to create feedback loops so look for them.

50



A

C

D’D

B

The Process of Building the Fast CRTThe Process of Building the Fast CRT

A

C D’

DB

Not DNot D’

Not C Not B

Not A

UDE

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

51



UDE

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

Starting Groups and Starting Groups and ConnectionsConnections

A

C D’

DB

Do some UDEs seem related?One follow the other?

A

C

D’D

B

Not DNot D’

Not C Not B

Not AUDE

UDE UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

52



A

C

D’D

B

Not DNot D’

Not C Not B

Not A

Simple, Temporary ConnectionsSimple, Temporary Connections

A

C D’

DBUDE

UDE UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

53



A

C

D’D

B

Not DNot D’

Not C Not B

Not A

Try to loosely link to D or D’Try to loosely link to D or D’

A

C D’

DBUDE

UDE UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

54



A

C

D’D

B

Not DNot D’

Not C Not B

Not A

Next, Rigorous Cause and Next, Rigorous Cause and Effect!Effect!

A

C D’

DBUDE

UDE UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

55



A

C

D’D

B

Not DNot D’

Not C Not B

Not A

Scrutinize the Entire Tree Using Scrutinize the Entire Tree Using the CLRthe CLR

A

C D’

DBUDE

UDE UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

56



A

C

D’D

B

Not DNot D’

Not C Not B

Not A


A

C D’

DBUDE

UDE UDE

UDE

UDE UDEUDE

UDE

57



A

C

D’D

B

Not DNot D’

Not C Not B

Not A


A

C D’

DBUDE

UDE UDE

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE

UDE

58




A

C D’

DBUDE

UDE UDE

UDE

UDEUDE

A

C

D’D

B

Not DNot D’

Not C Not B

Not AUDE

UDE

59



A

C

D’D

B

Not DNot D’

Not C Not B

Not A


A

C D’

DBUDE

UDE UDE

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE

UDE

60



A

C

D’D

B

Not DNot D’

Not C Not B

Not A

Re-Evaluate UDEsRe-Evaluate UDEs

A

C D’

DBUDE

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE

UDE

61



A

C

D’D

B

Not DNot D’

Not C Not B

Not A

Look for More UDEsLook for More UDEs

A

C D’

DBUDE

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

62



A

C

D’D

B

Not DNot D’

Not C Not B

Not A

Look for Feed Back LoopsLook for Feed Back Loops

A

C D’

DBUDE

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

63



A

C

D’D

B

Not DNot D’

Not C Not B

Not A

Look for Policy, Measurement, Look for Policy, Measurement, Behavior Issues Behavior Issues (add them if they are not there)(add them if they are not there)

A

C D’

DBUDE

UDE

UDEUDE

P

UDE

M

B

UDE

UDE

UDE

64



Positioning the Core Conflict

• It’s possible the Core Conflict (the one you created) is not exactly right.

• But, don’t fret, it is probably “almost right.”

• Often “almost right” is “right enough.”

• If it is not “right enough,” there are some quick fixes

− (Note: a Quick fix is one that you can do now when you see the problem. The Robust nature of the TOC Thinking Process will Self-Correct most errors as you go. Those are the Slow fixes that you will put in place.

− Don’t worry! Be Happy!

65



What if the Core Conflict is Wrong?What if the Core Conflict is Wrong?

• We may find the UDEs don’t align with the Regions.

• It could be the Conflict needs adjustment.

• It could be we missed some UDEs.

• Or, we forced a generic cloud that doesn’t fit.

• It could be there is still something to learn.

D’D

CBA

NOT D’

NOT B

NOT D

NOT C

NOT A

UDE

UDE

UDE UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

Which every, the top regions will generally remain the same.

66



What the Core Conflict should What the Core Conflict should do!do!

AG

CB

CD

CD

’C

C

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE The Core Conflict Cloud will be at the base of the Current Reality Tree. It is like a funnel. The UDEs above tend to come from this core conflict.

This ‘V’ shaped influence zone should capture most of the UDEs of the area of concern if we did things right.

67



What if there is an outlier or What if there is an outlier or two?two?

AG

CB

CD

CD

’C

C

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

Depending upon which three UDEs we started with, we may find some UDEs that are not in the funnel of the Core Conflict Cloud.

Don’t Panic!

It’s just common sense! Commons sense that there will be some outside the funnel. We didn’t collect EVERY UDE in our sampling process.

UDE

UDE

68



There are many Funnels that could There are many Funnels that could be drawn here. Depends on the be drawn here. Depends on the personperson

AG

CB

CD

CD

’C

C

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE If I had picked a different set, I might have… click

69



There are many Funnels that could There are many Funnels that could be drawn here. Depends on the be drawn here. Depends on the personperson

AG

CB

CD

CD

’C

C

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

Here we have a different set of outliers

70



There are many Core Conflict Clouds There are many Core Conflict Clouds for the same world.for the same world.

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

AG

CB

CD

CD

’C

C

UDE

UDE

AG

CB

CD

CD

’C

C

CA

CB

CD

CD

’C

C

Then, what do I do?

Answer. First, find your first cloud.

See if it captures most of your UDEs.

Examine the outliers, to see if they are truly within the domain you want to attack at this time.

If they are, then create One-UDE clouds with them and blend them into the Core Conflict.

If they are not, you many want to just discard or ignore the UDEs (delay them until you have more stamina or ability to take on a larger world).

Avoid too generic a cloud with “Eliminate World Hunger.” Work on the problem of the system (Not ALL systems).

71



What does a good CRT Look Like?What does a good CRT Look Like?

• Creating a CRT is usually pretty tough, even mentally painful.

• When you are in such pain, it’s hard to think of esthetics.

• But, it you can back away from the drudgery and start from the esthetics side, You will find you can build the CRT much easier.

• The CRT should look like lots of Ice Cream balls stacked on your Ice Cream Cone Base.

72



A CRT can take many shapes.A CRT can take many shapes.

Symbol representing Core Conflict Cloud at base

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE Symbol the logic twigs leading to the UDE leafs

73



Sometimes the CSometimes the C3 3 is Shifted to is Shifted to the Sidethe Side

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE

Looks like an Ice Cream Cone with the Ice Cream about to fall!This often happens when you insert your bias (or pet solution) into the analysis when it doesn’t fit.

You biased your Core Conflict.

Try to center your conflict by checking your starting three each One-UDE Clouds. Can you adjust a bit by using a different UDE to create the C3? (if you can’t, don’t worry too much).

74



Some CRT Helps!Some CRT Helps!

• What if your CRT doesn’t look right?

• If you see a CRT that has the tilting Ice Cream Cone, you are seeing only one side of the Current Reality Tree.

• DO NOT DISCARD THE ORIGINAL CORE CONFLICT.

• Creating a second Core Conflict can help adjust the tree. Or, maybe just working some logical connections

• It will help bring the Core Conflict closer to the UDEs felt by the system.

• Use both clouds to examine the real core problem of the CRT

75



Split TreeSplit Tree

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

This kind of CRT shouldn’t exist either.

Try to find inter-linkages between the sides.

76



Sometimes your Core ConflictSometimes your Core Conflict is ‘Feed the is ‘Feed the hungry’ vs. ‘Don’t feed the hungry’. hungry’ vs. ‘Don’t feed the hungry’.

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE

PS. I have no problem with solving world hunger. But, don’t go there unless you really are ready and have the energy, time and intuition to solve it.

77



Try to make a Cut Line and come in Try to make a Cut Line and come in closercloser

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE

UDE

UDEUDE

UDE

Try to get closer to the problems. Look at specifics versus generalities

78



The One Sided TreeThe One Sided Tree

UDE

UDE

UDE

UDE

Represents either a biased view of the world or ignorance of the other side.

Examine the assumptions behind the Cloud on both sides.

79



CRT Bottom Line

• 1. Collect clear, un-complicated UDES (8->10).

• 2. Select three distant UDEs for Three Cloud Approach

• 3. Find the Core Conflict (be as specific as you can)

• 4. Fill in the Fast CRT Template. With Feed Back and Policy->Measures->Behaviors.

• 5. Adjust the Core Conflict if the Structure of the CRT is really bad.

• This can be done about as fast as you can write.

80



About James HoltAbout James Holt

Dr. James R. Holt, is a Clinical Professor of Engineering Management at Washington State University focusing on the delivery of the best management technologies.. Dr. Holt has taught at the graduate level 18 years and has advised 85 engineering student theses and dissertations on a wide variety of topics. Dr. Holt is certified in the TOC Thinking Process, TOC Operations Management, TOC Project Management and TOC Holistic Strategy by the Theory of Constraints International Certification Organization and serves as Chairman of the Board, TOCICO (Theory of Constraints International Certification Organization). He is happily married to Suzanne for 38 years; they have five children and nine grandchildren. www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/holt/

[Color Photo of Presenter][Color Photo of Presenter]

tocico conference 2009 fast thinking process tools part 1: the crt an overview for toc experts

Documents