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Theory of Change
Performance Measurement
Cara Cheevers, Program Officer,
Serve Colorado
Laura West, Grants Officer,
OneStar Foundation
Ju ly 25, 2013
Southw est National Servic e Conferenc e
Univers ity of Denver, Denver, CO
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Theory of Change
Agenda
Welcome/Introductions (begin 8:10AM)
Theory of Change: Presentation + Group Activity
Evidence: Presentation + Group Activity
High Quality Performance Measures Part 1:Presentation + Group Activity
High Quality Performance Measures Part 2:
Presentation + Group Activity Closing/Wrap-up (end 10:50AM)
Ju ly 25, 2013
Southw est National Servic e Conference
Univers ity o f Denver, Denver, CO
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Theory of Change
Designing Effective Action for
Change
How a Theory of Change helps you
clarify the cause-and-effect
relationship at the heart of your
program
Copy right 2012 by JBS International, Inc.
Developed by JBS International for the Corporat ion for Nat ional & Communi ty Service
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Theory of Change
Learning Objectives
By the end of the module, you will be able to:
Describe the benefits of a Theory of Change Define the three elements needed to construct
a Theory of Change Identify how the Theory of Change informs the
program design
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Theory of Change
Theory of Change Elements
CommunityProblem/Need SpecificIntervention IntendedOutcome
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Theory of Change
Theory of Change Perspective
the most effective
set of activities
for volunteers
and participants
CommunityProblem/Need SpecificIntervention IntendedOutcome
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Looks at cause and effect relationships
Adapted from www.theoryofchange.org/about/
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Theory of Change
Theory of Change Perspective
the most effective
set of activities
for volunteers
and participants
CommunityProblem/Need SpecificIntervention IntendedOutcome
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Identifies specific interventions to achieve thedesired resultAdapted from www.theoryofchange.org/about/
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Theory of Change
Theory of Change Perspective
the most effective
set of activities
for volunteers
and participants
CommunityProblem/Need SpecificIntervention IntendedOutcome
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Shifts thinking from what we are doing tofocus on what we want to achieveAdapted from www.theoryofchange.org/about/
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Theory of Change
Theory of Change Elements
Community
Problem/Need
Specific
Intervention
Intended
Outcome
EvidenceGuides choice of intervention
Supports cause-effect relationship
Statisticsdocumenting the
need
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f C
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Theory of Change
Everyday Life Example
I have strep throat (problem) I will take antibiotics (intervention) I will get better (outcome)
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Strep throat Antibiotics Be Healthy
EvidenceGuides choice of intervention
Supports cause-effect relationship
Th f Ch
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Theory of Change
Everyday Life Example
But which antibiotic(s) fight strep the best?
(Look at evidence to make the choice)
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Evidence: Guides choice of intervention
Supports cause-effect relationship
Theor of Change
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Theory of Change
Example:
Riverton Literacy Corps
Statistics on the number
of students at below
grade level in programs
service area; Research
on why reading
proficiency by 3rd grade
is important.
Children reading
below grade level
in 3rd grade
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Community
Problem/need
Theory of Change
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Theory of Change
Example:
Riverton Literacy Corps
Community
Problem/need
Intended
Outcome
Statistics on the number
of students at below
grade level in programs
service area; Research
on why reading
proficiency by 3rd grade
is important.
Children reading
below grade level
in 3rd grade
Students are able
to read at 3rd
grade level (as
measured by 3rd
grade reading
exam)
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Theory of Change
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Theory of Change
Example:
Riverton Literacy Corps
Community
Problem/need
Specific
Intervention
Intended
Outcome
Evidence: Research on building block skills leading to
reading proficiency. Research on design, frequency,
duration of tutoring sessions.
Statistics on the number
of students at below
grade level in programs
service area; Research
on why reading
proficiency by 3rd grade
is important.
Children reading
below grade level
in 3rd grade
Students are able
to read at 3rd
grade level (as
measured by 3rd
grade reading
exam)
Individualized
tutoring 3
times/week for 20
min on five
building block
literacy skills
through reading,
writing and verbal
communication
activities
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Theory of Change
Theory of Change Elements
Community
Problem/Need
Specific
Intervention
Intended
Outcome
Evidence
Guides choice of interventionSupports cause-effect relationship
Statistics
documenting theproblem/need
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Community Problem/Need is the specific issue your
project, with its specific intervention (service activity), is
designed to address.What is the extent and severity ofthis need in the community?
Theory of Change
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Theory of Change
Theory of Change Elements
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Statistics
documenting the
problem/need
Theory of Change
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Theory of Change
Community Problem/Need
Data documenting problem/need should
answer these questions:
SCOPE: Who and how many are directlyaffected? How severe is this?
SIGNIFICANCE: What makes this a compelling
need? Is it likely to become worse? What willhappen if we do nothing?
CAUSE(S): Why does the need exist? How is itperpetuated?
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y g
Documenting Community Need
Healthy Futures Program Example Scope: National Survey of Children and Health
found childhood obesity in State X increased 23%between 2003 and 2007 the 2nd fastest rate ofincrease in US (2010). CDC data show nearlyone-third of children and teens are obese oroverweight in Webb County (2009).
Significance: Obese children found to become obese adults
Links between childhood obesity and earlyonset of cardiovascular disease, and Type IIdiabetes
Webb County rising in state and nationalaverages for cardiovascular disease
Long term health care costs rising Causes: Diet, sedentary lifestyle
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Intended Outcome
What change are you hoping to make related
to the identified need?
Community
Need
Specific
Intervention
Intended
Outcome
EvidenceGuides choice of intervention
Supports cause-effect relationship
Statisticsdocumenting the
need
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Identifying the Intended
Outcome
Healthy Futures Program Example
Possible outcomes to measure:
Increased knowledge of what is healthy food More frequent choice of healthy foods to eat More frequent involvement in physical activity or
exercise
Improved physical condition
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Intervention
Aninterventionis the specific set of activities in
which participants and volunteers will be
engaged. What is the best way to achieve theintended outcome?
CommunityNeed
SpecificIntervention
IntendedOutcome
EvidenceGuides choice of intervention
Supports cause-effect relationship
Statisticsdocumenting the
need
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Intervention
Aninterventionis the specific set of activities in
which participants and volunteers will be
engaged. What is the best way to achieve theintended outcome?
CommunityNeed
SpecificIntervention
IntendedOutcome
EvidenceGuides choice of intervention
Supports cause-effect relationship
Statisticsdocumenting the
need
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Intervention
Describe the design and dosage of your
intervention (service activity):
Design (who does what with whom?) Dosage Frequency (how many sessions a week?)
Intensity (length of each session)
Duration (how many total weeks of sessions?)
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Intervention Example
Healthy Futures Program Example
Design: national service participants implementthe Shape Up curriculum with economicallydisadvantaged urban girls ages 14-16 to increase
physical activity (30 minutes/session) and educate
them on healthy eating
Frequency: twice a week afterschool Intensity: 60 minutes per session Duration: 12 weeks
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Testing Your Theory of Change:
IS YOUR THEORY OF CHANGE:
PLAUSIBLE: Does the logic of the model seem correct:
if we do these things, will we get the results we
expect?
FEASIBLE: Are resources sufficient to implement thechosen intervention?
MEANINGFUL:Are intended outcomes important? Is
the magnitude of expected change worth the effort?
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Summary of Key Points
A theory of change identifies cause/effect The three elements of a theory of change;
community problem/need, intervention, intendedoutcome are supported by data and evidence
Data documenting community need should showscope, significance, and causes
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Additional Resources
CNCS Priorities and Performance Measures:
http://www.nationalserviceresources.gov/npm/home
Program-Specific Notices of Funding Opportunities
and Application Instructions:
http://www.nationalservice.gov
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http://www.nationalserviceresources.gov/npm/homehttp://www.nationalservice.gov/http://www.nationalservice.gov/http://www.nationalserviceresources.gov/npm/home