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LONDON — In Munich, nor-mally brimming with boisterouscrowds for Oktoberfest thismonth, the authorities justbanned gatherings of more thanfive people. In Marseille, France,all bars and restaurants will beclosed next Monday. And in Lon-don, where the government spentweeks urging workers to return tothe city’s empty skyscrapers, it is

now asking them to work fromhome.

Summer ended in Europe thisweek with a heavy thud amid omi-nous signs that a spike in corona-virus cases may send anotherwave of patients into hospitals. Of-ficials across the continent fear arepeat of the harrowing scenesfrom last spring, when the virusswamped intensive care units incountries like Italy and Spain. Al-ready in Spain, some hospitals are

struggling with an influx of viruspatients.

“I’m sorry to say that, as inSpain and France and many othercountries, we’ve reached a per-ilous turning point,” Prime Min-

ister Boris Johnson said on Tues-day, as he imposed new restric-tions — including shutting pubsand restaurants at 10 p.m. — toprevent Britain’s National HealthService from becoming over-whelmed.

But just how imminent is theperil?

As they weigh actions to curb asecond wave of the virus, Mr.Johnson and other European

‘Perilous Turning Point’: Europe Fears Another Rush on HospitalsBy MARK LANDLER Nations Face Quandary

in a Second Wave

Continued on Page A5

JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

An ailing sea lion pup in California. A study has tied ocean heat waves to climate change. Page A13.Endangered by a Hotter Ocean

President Trump is on the de-fensive in three red states he car-ried in 2016, narrowly trailing Jo-seph R. Biden Jr. in Iowa and bat-tling to stay ahead of him in Geor-gia and Texas, as Mr. Trumpcontinues to face a wall of opposi-tion from women that has also en-dangered his party’s control of theSenate, according to a poll con-ducted by The New York Timesand Siena College. Mr. Trump’svulnerability even in conserva-tive-leaning states underscoresjust how precarious his politicalposition is, less than six weeks be-fore Election Day. While he andMr. Biden are competing ag-gressively for traditional swingstates like Wisconsin, Pennsylva-nia and Florida, the poll suggeststhat Mr. Biden has assembled acoalition that could be formidableenough to jeopardize Mr. Trump inhistorically Republican parts ofthe South and the Midwest.

A yawning gender gap in Geor-gia, Iowa and Texas is working inMr. Biden’s favor, with the formervice president making inroadsinto conservative territory withstrong support from women. InIowa, where Mr. Biden is ahead ofMr. Trump, 45 percent to 42 per-cent, he is up among women by 14percentage points. Men favor Mr.Trump by eight points.

In Georgia, where the two can-didates are tied at 45 percent, Mr.Biden leads among women by 10

points. Mr. Trump is ahead withmen by a similar margin of 11 per-centage points.

Mr. Trump’s large advantageamong men in Texas is enough togive him a small advantage there,46 percent to 43 percent. Men pre-fer the president to his Democrat-ic challenger by 16 points, whilewomen favor Mr. Biden by aneight-point margin.

There was a significant gendergap in the 2016 election, too, but atthat time it tilted toward Mr.Trump because men supportedhim so heavily, according to exitpolls. In the Times poll, Mr. Bidensharply narrowed Mr. Trump’s ad-vantage with men while improv-ing on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 leadwith women in Texas and Iowa.

In Georgia, Mr. Biden’s lead

Trump Struggles on G.O.P. TurfAs Women Favor Biden in Poll

By ALEXANDER BURNSand JONATHAN MARTIN

THE NEW YORK TIMES

Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters from Sept. 16 to Sept. 22.

Joe Biden has made significant gains in states Donald Trump won handily in 2016.

2016 resultNYT/SienaSept. 2020

Iowa(n=501)

+3 Biden45-42

+9 Trump

Tied45-45

+5 TrumpGeorgia(523)

+3 Trump43-46

+9 TrumpTexas(653)

Continued on Page A14

WASHINGTON — PresidentTrump declined for a secondstraight day to commit to a peace-ful transfer of power if he lost theelection, repeating baseless as-sertions that the voting would be a“big scam,” even as leading Re-publicans scrambled to assure thepublic that their party would re-spect the Constitution.

“We want to make sure that theelection is honest, and I’m notsure that it can be,” Mr. Trump toldreporters on Thursday beforeleaving the White House for NorthCarolina.

The president doubled down onhis stance just hours after promi-nent Republicans made it clearthat they were committed to theorderly transfer of power, withoutdirectly rebuking him. “The win-ner of the November 3rd electionwill be inaugurated on January20th,” Mitch McConnell, the Sen-ate majority leader, wrote on Twit-ter early Thursday. “There will bean orderly transition just as therehas been every four years since1792.”

Democrats were far less re-strained, comparing Mr. Trump’scomments to those of an authori-tarian leader and warning Ameri-cans to take his stance seriously.

“You are not in North Korea;you are not in Turkey; you are notin Russia, Mr. President, and bythe way, you are not in Saudi Ara-bia,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosisaid. “You are in the United Statesof America. It is a democracy, sowhy don’t you just try for a mo-ment to honor your oath of officeto the Constitution of the UnitedStates?”

Chris Edelson, an AmericanUniversity professor who hasstudied the expansion of presiden-tial power during national emer-gencies, said Mr. Trump’s com-

PRESIDENT AGAINREJECTS PROMISE

TO HONOR A VOTEG.O.P. Vows Respect

for Election Result

This article is by Reid J. Epstein,Emily Cochrane and Glenn Thrush.

Continued on Page A15

With less than six weeks untilElection Day, laws governing howAmericans vote remain in flux inmany battleground states, withthe two parties locked in an inten-sive fight over the rules as Presi-dent Trump continues to suggesthe will challenge any outcome un-favorable to him.

The combination of the pan-demic, doubts about the capacityof the Postal Service to handle aflood of mail ballots and an ag-gressive push by Democrats to ex-pand access to voting rights andcounter Republican efforts to limitthem has fueled litigation and leg-islative battles across the countrythat have not been resolved evenas early voting has gotten under-way.

The result is uncertainty thatMr. Trump is already seizing on inhis extraordinary campaign tocast doubt on the election systemand the result. In the latest of astring of remarks on the issue, thepresident refused on Wednesdayto commit to a peaceful transfer ofpower, igniting new concern abouthis commitment to the Constitu-tion and drawing pushback onThursday from prominent mem-bers of his party.

After the White House then saidthat Mr. Trump would accept theresults of a “free and fair” election,the president weighed in again,saying that he was not sure theNovember election could be “hon-est” because mail-in ballots were“a whole big scam.”

Even before his comments overthe past several days, the confu-sion surrounding how ballotsshould be cast and counted hadreached a level rarely before seen.

In Wisconsin and Pennsylva-nia, two states pivotal to the out-come of the presidential race be-tween Mr. Trump and Joseph R.

Unclear Ballot Rules Add to the Anxiety

By NICK CORASANITIand KENNETH P. VOGEL

Continued on Page A15

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — When gun-shots rang out shortly before 9p.m. on Wednesday, Lt. WilliamVogt of the Louisville Metro PoliceDepartment saw a fallen col-league just 15 feet away. Hequickly dragged his fellow officerto safety, but then looked up to ascene that put him even more onedge: several of his colleagueswith their guns drawn, facing acrowd of protesters.

“My thought is, ‘Please do not,’”Lieutenant Vogt, the head of thedepartment’s special responseteam, said in an interview onThursday.

Some officers in Louisville feelbesieged. Protesters are fed upwith what they consider abusivepolicing. And clashes between the

police and protesters have esca-lated in the six months since Bre-onna Taylor was killed in herapartment by officers. Calmseems a long way off.

The tensions spilled onto thestreet on Wednesday after a grandjury charged one former officerwith wanton endangerment forfiring recklessly but did notcharge the two officers who shotMs. Taylor. Amid protests in Lou-isville that night, two officers wereshot.

Facing open hostility from resi-dents, many officers say that city

and police officials contributed tothe anger in the community by be-ing slow to release crucial detailsin the case. Officers accuse the topbrass of not standing up for therank and file.

Several officers said the city didnot do the department any favorsby reaching a $12 million settle-ment with Ms. Taylor’s family be-fore the grand jury announce-ment. That gave the impressionthere was something fundamen-tally wrong with the Police De-partment before the facts of thecase were made available, theysaid.

Shortly before the city’s curfewon Wednesday, Lieutenant Vogtwas staring down his worst night-mare: Two of his colleagues hadbeen shot, and there was a chancethat officers may open fire on pro-

In an Outraged Louisville, a Police Force in CrisisThis article is by Will Wright, John

Eligon and Rukmini Callimachi.

Reconstructing a memorial for Breonna Taylor on Thursday in Louisville, Ky. Ms. Taylor was killed during a police raid in March.WHITNEY CURTIS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Grand Jury Decision in Taylor Case Deepens

Tensions in City

Continued on Page A19

Trillions of dollars in federal aidto households and businesses hasallowed the U.S. economy toemerge from the first six monthsof the coronavirus pandemic in farbetter shape than many observershad feared last spring.

But that spending has nowlargely dried up and hopes for amajor new aid package ahead ofthe Nov. 3 election are all but dead,even as the virus persists and mil-lions of Americans remain unem-ployed. Already, there are signsthat the economic rebound is los-ing steam, as some measures ofconsumer spending growth decel-erate and job gains slow. Applica-tions for jobless benefits rose lastweek, with about 825,000 Ameri-cans filing for state unemploy-ment benefits.

The combination of a moderat-ing economic rebound and fadinggovernment support is an eerieecho of the weak period that fol-lowed the 2007 to 2009 recession.In the view of many analysts, apremature pullback in govern-ment support back then led to agrinding recovery that left legionsof would-be employees out ofwork for years. In recent weeks,prominent economists havewarned that both the UnitedStates and Europe, where manyearly responses are drawing to aclose, were at risk of repeatingthat mistake by cutting off gov-ernment aid too soon.

“The initial response was good,but we need more,” said Karen Dy-nan, who was chief economist atthe Treasury Department in theObama administration and nowteaches at Harvard. The decisionto pull back on spending a decadeago, she said, “really prolonged

Aid Dries Up,And Economy

Shows Strain

By BEN CASSELMANand JEANNA SMIALEK

Continued on Page A7

A show at MoMA PS1 shows the prisonsystem can’t stifle the artistic impulse,Holland Cotter says. PAGE C1

WEEKEND ARTS C1-12

Making Art Behind BarsWomen are in the forefront of protestsagainst the country’s most powerfulinstitutions. PAGE A8

INTERNATIONAL A8-12

Speaking Out in Thailand

New Jersey officials approved Gov.Philip D. Murphy’s budget, whichhinges on borrowing $4.5 billionto cover basic operating costs. PAGE A4

TRACKING AN OUTBREAK A4-7

Murphy’s Budget Rides on DebtMonths of closures have left manyestablishments too deeply in debtto survive without concessions. PAGE B1

BUSINESS B1-7

Small Business vs. LandlordAs Jamain Stephens was mourned,other football players thought abouttheir own coronavirus risks. PAGE B8

SPORTSFRIDAY B8-10

A College Lineman’s Death

Daniel Snyder withheld payouts to threepartners, fueling turmoil at the N.F.L.’sWashington Football Team. PAGE B10

Team’s Owners in Money Fight

The reissue of “Sign O’ the Times,” thestar’s 1987 masterpiece, includes dozensof previously unheard songs. PAGE C3

Treasures From Prince’s Vault

New filings for state unemploymentbenefits rose last week, signaling con-tinued layoffs even before autumn chillsoutdoor business. PAGE B1

A Step Backward on Jobs

Many cases have been tied to schoolsthis season, but uneven reportingmakes a true tally impossible. PAGE A6

Snapshot of Virus in Schools

The move would give President Trumpanother chance to broker diplomacyon Israel’s behalf. PAGE A12

Sudan to Come Off Terror ListHarold Evans, who after a career inBritain became a literary luminary inAmerica, was 92. PAGE B12

OBITUARIES B11-12

Newsman With a Second ActA long-promised replacement for theAffordable Care Act would send seniors$200 drug discount cards. PAGE A14

NATIONAL A13-21, 24

Trump Lays Out Health PlanDavid Brooks PAGE A23

EDITORIAL, OP-ED A22-23

VOL. CLXX . . . No. 58,827 © 2020 The New York Times Company FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2020 Printed in Chicago $3.00

Partly sunny. Warm. Breezy forsome. Hazy. Highs in upper 70s tolower 80s. Partly cloudy tonight.Thunderstorms far north. Lows in60s. Weather map is on Page A24.

National Edition