tmt predictions 2012...the $100 “smartphone” reaches its first half billion nfc and mobile...

© Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.

April 23, 2013

TMT Predictions 2013 Insights. In advance.

http://www.feicanada.org/


60 countries, 60+ cities, 10,000 people at launch events in first 3 months of 2013

Predictions was first published in 2001

1


Predictions methodology

2

8,000 specialists in

TMT, tax, audit, risk,

corporate finance

and consulting

Deloitte TMT

Research

Projects/discussions

with industry bodies

Macroeconomic

research

Discussions with

clients around the

world

Experts at industry

analysts and

financial institutions


>330 end notes + >500 references + 1000s x conversations + 10,000s survey responses = P 13.

3


TMT Predictions 2012 Report card


2012 Technology Predictions report card

Consumer tech demand defies the economic headwinds

It takes two to tablet: The rise of the multi-tablet owner

Billions and billions: Big data becomes a big deal

Hard times for the hard disk: Solid state storage surges

Ambient radio frequency power harvesting: A drop in the bucket

3D printing is here – but the factory in every home isn’t here yet!

5

Came true, but less than

we predicted. At least so far

Didn’t come true

as we predicted

Legend

Came true exactly as

much as we predicted


Hard times for the hard disk Solid state storage surges

6 6

© Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 7

2012 Media Predictions report card

Targeted television advertisements miss the point

The schedule dominates, still

All aboard for the catch-up commuter thanks to the portable DVR

A “brand” new day for online ads

Market research is all in your head: MRI machines and media

Online coupon intermediaries: from novelty, to celebrity,

to sizeable niche



Didn’t come true

as we predicted

Legend




2012 Telecom Predictions report card

The $100 “smartphone” reaches its first half billion

NFC and mobile devices: Payments and much more!

Web bypass: Delivering connectivity without the Internet

Here come more data caps: It is the end of the (wire)line

for unlimited Internet

So many apps – so little to download



Didn’t come true

as we predicted

Legend




Total prediction accuracy

9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

© 2013 Deloitte Southeast Asia Ltd

Mythbusters

10

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=3312223&id=573317465

© 2013 Deloitte Southeast Asia Ltd

Early remote control

11


TV is going to the dogs

12


Voice and gesture remote control

13


Voice and gesture remote control

14

02 00 02

False negatives/

10,000 uses

False positives/

10,000 uses

Error rate/

10,000 uses

(dead battery, dog in

front of TV sensor)

Remote Control

1,200 800 2,000

False negatives/

10,000 uses

False positives/

10,000 uses

Error rate/

10,000 uses

Gesture

1,000 500 1,500

False Negatives/

10,000 uses

False positives/

500 uses

Error rate/

10,000 uses

Voice


What’s Deloitte’s opinion on touch screen laptops?

15


We don’t have opinions, we have data points…

16

0

5

10

15

20

Anticipated Sales Actual Sales

Mil

lio

ns

First Two Months of 2013 Touchscreen Laptops (all brands)


http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=GxYN1rMrzctpIM&tbnid=MmEf67_Ba4j4wM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://sevenels.net/typewriters/underwoods.htm&ei=xpkmUcysGs7s2AWCqICgCQ&bvm=bv.42661473,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNGbY5NJMT-2J7IQIxtKM8UZAFY_Ag&ust=1361570628090204


What’s Deloitte opinion on wearable computers?

18


You know they are transparent, low-resolution, work only with a smartphone, cost $1500, and probably violate privacy laws, right?

19

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=D_lou8g1H5Gx5M&tbnid=ZqftqNfDpqj7ZM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.tapscape.com/second-preview-of-google-glass/&ei=PZFHUby0B8qD2QXfkYCoCQ&bvm=bv.43828540,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNGFPNn2p-MwYO59yVH8swdm45TuSA&ust=1363731113331393


The looming spectrum shortage Worse before it gets better

20


A growing proportion of smartphone owners may never or rarely connect to data services

24

64% 72% 72%

77% 77% 79% 85%

92%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Belgium Germany Canada France Finland UK United States Japan

Proportion of smartphones that are Internet-connected in developed markets among respondents who own a

smartphone

Proportion of smartphones that are Internet-connected in developing markets among urban professionals who

own a smartphone

67%

76% 76% 77% 81%

85% 91%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Russia Argentina Mexico Brazil South Africa Croatia Turkey

Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions, 2013

#tmtpredictions Join the #TMTongoruleri conversation

© Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. Join the #Deloittepredicts conversation 25

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=ARQBe4jOmhQTtM&tbnid=FMlTpU-jJ7oudM:&ved=&url=http://www.engadget.com/2013/04/10/idc-pc-shipments-in-q1-faced-their-steepest-drop-known-to-date/&ei=LlBoUYvbEOe-2gXp84HQDw&bvm=bv.45175338,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNF9R6Bjd79ZMaiUZX_Wh4iTkPQHPA&ust=1365877166724410


We are in the post-PC era

26

1.5B

0.3B

1.6B

200

50

60

Internet device hours/month Internet accessing device units

300B

15B

96B


84 sq Inches

(540 cm^2)

1 x 3.5” screens

4.8” Smartphone 7” Tablet 9.7” Tablet

5.2 sq Inches

(34 cm^2)

3.5” Smartphone

Screen area (16:9 aspect ratio) As measured in 3.5” screens

1.9 x 3.5” screens

9.8 sq Inches

(63 cm^2)


21 sq Inches

(135 cm^2)


40 sq Inches

(259 cm^2)


14” Laptop 23” Monitor

226 sq Inches

(1458 cm^2)


42” LCD TV

754 sq Inches

(4862 cm^2)

145 x 3.5” screens

Source: Deloitte Canada calculations

27


Share of connected device traffic Dec 2011, US data

28

Source: comScore Device Essentials, Dec-2011, U.S.

91.8% 8.2%

5.2%

2.5%

0.5%

Classic web Other Tablet Mobile


www.emarketer.com

Devices used for online activities by smartphone owners in Canada, April 2012

% of respondents in each group

29

Computer* Smartphone Tablet

Research health issues and symptoms 89% 21% 16%

Shop for products and services 89% 26% 18%

Maintain personal banking and finances 89% 29% 13%

Source maps and directions 86% 59% 18%

Communicate with family and friends 86% 74% 20%

Connect to social networks 80% 52% 20%

Keep up to date on daily news 78% 43% 21%

Online education and learning 71% 11% 12%

Play games 66% 50% 21%

Watch movies and TV shows 54% 10% 14%

Stream live radio 53% 21% 8%

Stream music (e.g., Rdio, Grooveshark, Loudlee) 47% 19% 8%

Live streaming of major sporting and

entertainment events 35% 6% 7%

Note: *Laptop, desktop or netbook

Source: Rogers, “Innovation Report: 2012 Trend Watch* conducted by Vision Critical, May 9, 2012

140346

http://www.emarketer.com/


Which device is more important to you —

that is, which device could you least do without?

(Among respondents who own both a laptop and a tablet)


Q1, 2011 – All 2+ Q1, 2011 – 18-34

87%

81%

76%

65%

41%

35


Demographic profile of TV viewers

36

Demographics

Proportion of TV viewing population (%) Total

population

(%) Heavy Medium Light Non-

viewers

Income Less than 10,000

10,000 – 19,999

20,000 – 29,999

30,000 – 49,999

50,000 – 69,999

70,000 or more

9

26

16

25

13

10

6

15

14

29

19

18

6

12

12

28

20

23

7

15

13

26

17

23

6

16

14

28

18

19

Discretionary

spending

Light spenders

Medium spenders

Heavy spenders

48

31

21

31

34

35

28

34

38

34

31

35

33

33

33

Socio-

Economic

quintile

FG

E

D

C

AB

34

25

18

14

9

19

20

21

21

19

14

18

20

22

26

15

17

20

21

27

20

20

20

20

20

*includes full-time and part-tme workers which totals 60% of the population


Demographic profile of TV viewers

37

Demographics

Proportion of TV viewing population (%) Total

population

(%) Heavy Medium Light Non-

viewers

Education

level

Primary

Some secondary

Completed Year 12

Some/Now at Uni

Have Diploma/

Degree

5

53

20

6

16

3

40

20

9

29

2

32

17

11

38

2

31

15

10

42

3

39

19

9

31

Employment

variables*

Other (inc.

semi/unskilled)

Skilled workers

White collar

Professional/Manager

14

5

14

7

15

8

22

16

15

8

23

22

14

8

21

21

15

8

20

17

*includes full-time and part-tme workers which totals 60% of the population


1% 2%

97%

2012 Summer Olympics

Live VOSDAL 1-6 days later


Let’s get together Crowdfunding portals bring in the bucks

39 Join the #Deloittepredicts conversation


Let’s get together Crowdfunding portals bring in the bucks

41 Join the #Deloittepredicts conversation


Bring your own computer

42



43



44


P@$$1234 The end of strong password-only security

Is this your password?

G@ndalf789

Or this?

+4J’,^{P5%N/3n

45



46



47


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TMT Predictions customized events

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tmt predictions 2012...the $100 “smartphone” reaches its first half billion nfc and mobile...

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