title three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location stephan husen...

17
Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, [email protected] Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, [email protected] Anthony Lomax with contributions from Edi Kissling Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland

Upload: jacob-summers

Post on 17-Dec-2015

216 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

Title

Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location

Stephan Husen

Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, [email protected]

Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, [email protected]

Anthony Lomax

with contributions from

Edi Kissling

Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland

Page 2: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

Linearized earthquake locationIntroduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

linearized earthquakelocation Traditional earthquake location

• linearized methods (HYPO71, HYPOELLIPSE, HYPOINVERSE,..)

• 1-D velocity models (plus station delays)

• error bars or error ellipses (linear)

• efficient

…. but linearized methods and 1-D velocity models are only approximations!

Page 3: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

what do we needIntroduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

improvement

How can we improve the situation?

• 3-D velocity models (Local earthquake tomography, controlled-source experiment)

• Non-linear earthquake location (NonLinLoc)

Page 4: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

Example mine blastIntroduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

relocation mine blast

True location

Linear solution (1D)

True location

Linear solution (1D)

Non-linear solution (3D)

Mine Blast - True location is known

Page 5: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

Data qualityIntroduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

earthquake data in Switzerland

729 earthquakes with 10,044 P-observations

only highest quality data (impulsive onsets)

Page 6: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

Moho topographyIntroduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

Moho topography

3-D Moho topography beneath Switzerland as determined by controlled-source seismology data

Waldhauser et al., 1998

Page 7: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

Min. 1D modelIntroduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

min. 1D modelSubset of 200 earthquakes

Simultaneous inversion for 1D velocity models, hypocenter locations, and station delays

Software VELEST

Initial modelsFinal models

Page 8: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

CSS modelIntroduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

controlled-source data

3-D P-wave velocity model determined by controlled-source seismology (CSS) data

Page 9: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

Final modelIntroduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

final (combined) model

Final 3D P-wave velocity model determined by earthquake data and controlled-source data

crust is controlled by earthquake data

Lower crust / Moho is controlled by CSS data

Page 10: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

NonLinLocIntroduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

software NonLinLoc

Posteriori Probability Density Function (x) (PDF):

relies on known a priori information (x) on model parameters and on observations.

PDF gives complete location uncertainties.

Software NonLinLoc: www.alomax.net/nlloc

(x) = K(x)*exp[-1/2misfitL2(x)]

Tarantola and Valette (1982)

PDF is computed using global sampling techniques - grid search or Oct-Tree importance sampling.

Page 11: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

Global sampling methodsIntroduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

Grid-Search

Grid-Search

complete mapping

inefficient and slow

Page 12: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

Global sampling methodsIntroduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

Grid-Search vs. Oct-Tree sampling

Grid-Search

complete mapping

inefficient and slow

Oct-Tree sampling

importance sampling

efficient and fast

Page 13: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

Location uncertaintiesIntroduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

solution and location uncertainties

Grid-search Oct-Tree importance sampling

confidence contours scatter clouds

maximum likelihood hypocenter location

68% confidence ellipsoid

Page 14: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

Example 1Introduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

non-linear uncertainties

Nobs: 8

RMS: 0.04 s

GAP: 193

Dmin: 1.9 km

SED error:

ERRH: 1.9 km

ERRZ: 2.6 km

Difference:

dx: 1.0 km

dy: 5.2 km

dz: 0.1 km

1987 05 08 09:59 46.146 N 8.614 E 4.1km

Non-linear(3D)

Linear(1D)

Page 15: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

Example 2Introduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

no control on focal depth

Nobs: 8

RMS: 0.14 s

GAP: 164

Dmin: 16.9

km

SED error:

ERRH: 2.2

km

ERRZ: 2.6

km

Difference:

dx: 2.5 km

dy: 3.0 km

dz: 15.7 km

1993 04 15 13:57 46.921 N 9.607 E -0.9 km

Non-linear(3D)

Linear(1D)

Page 16: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

ConclusionsIntroduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

• combination of local earthquake data and controlled-source data provides reliable 3-D velocity models

• probabilistic earthquake location combined with global sampling algorithms is efficient and reliable

• location uncertainties obtained by probabilistic earthquake location prove to be much more reliable, important for planetary data sets with few instruments

Conclusions

Page 17: Title Three-dimensional velocity models and probabilistic earthquake location Stephan Husen Scientific Software, Mouans-Sartoux, France, anthony@alomax.net

ConclusionsIntroduction

3D Velocity Model

Probabilistic Earthquake Location

Location Examples

Conclusions

Outlook

• application and tuning of existing geophysical methods to planetary data sets (real and synthetic) considering their peculiarities, i.e. small number of receivers