timid global growth: the new normal?thinkers50.com/wp-content/uploads/timid-global-growth.pdf ·...

Looking Ahead 5

Source: “World Economic Outlook”, IMF, Apr. 2015

THE IMF FORECASTS GLOBAL GROWTH OF ~3.6% IN 2015/2016, with a pickup in advanced economies and stabilization in emerging markets

Global GDP Growth over Time(In % of Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth, 1980-2020)

According to the IMF, global growth is projected to reach 3.5% in 2015. The overall growth of advanced economies masks differences between countries. While the US has rebounded and is now growing faster, economies like Japan and the EU will continue to struggle. On the emerging market side, growth is more subdued. China has slowed down, Russia’s outlook has weakened, and most commodity exporters have been affected by declining prices

TIMID GLOBAL GROWTH: THE NEW NORMAL?

01

4.3

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

World

Advanced Economies

3.5

2.4

Emerging Markets andDeveloping Economies

Forecast

LA_PublicVersion(Bleed3175)_ENG_V22.indd 5 10/28/15 1:22 PM

Looking Ahead 6

1.11.00.90.60.60.50.5

0.10.1

-0.4-0.6

-1.6

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Phi

lippi

nes

1.8

Slo

vak

Rep

ublic

1.3

Sou

th A

frica

Thai

land

Chi

na

Turk

ey

0.8

US

0.8

Indi

a

0.7

UK

Bra

zil

Sou

th K

orea

Ger

man

y

Can

ada

0.2

Indo

nesi

a

Japa

n

Pol

and

-0.2

Den

mar

k

-0.2

Net

herla

nds

Mal

aysi

a

Nor

way

-1.2

UA

E

Rus

sia

-3.7

Sau

di A

rabi

a

-3.8

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

BaselineEstimate

Upper Range

US$ 40-50US$ 60-70US$ 80-90Brent OilPrice Scenario

NA294 174 106 47 -453 1 -16 -99-146 -3 53 -74 -3 -10 -148 -274 -218 -38 -15 -5 -6

Trade Balance of Crude Petroleum Oils (In US$ Billion, 2013)

Circle color: Net Exporting Countries Net Importing Countries

Note: (1) Estimates based on data from 190 countries, weighted by GDP at purchasing power paritySource- Upper Chart: “World Economic Outlook”, IMF, Apr. 2015Source- Lower Chart: “World Economic Outlook”, IMF, Oct. 2014

Regional Growth Across Time Periods(In Average % Growth of GDP at PPP per Time Period, 2002-2007, 2008-2013 and 2014-2019)

Country and Regional Contribution to Global Growth(1)

(In Percentage Points of Total GDP Growth, 2007-2020)

Advanced economies’ contribution to global growth remains subdued with the exception of the US. Emerging markets’ growth rates are undergoing a shift with China and the greater Asia Pacific region continuing to slow down. India’s share is projected to grow by nearly 2% between 2015 and 2019; rates in China will slow by the same amount. Africa will become an important focal point of growth as the percentage of middle class consumers expands, with the potential to nearly double GDP to more than US$ 3.7 Trillion by 2019

ADVANCED ECONOMIES’ CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL GROWTH HAS REBOUNDED, but despite their slowdown, emerging markets still drive global expansion with Asia and Africa leading the way

0.50.6

0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2

0.3 0.4

0.4 0.40.4

0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

0.5 0.6

0.40.3 0.5

0.50.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7

1.6

1.1

1.4

1.31.2 1.2

1.21.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2

2.1

1.5

1.6

1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

0.30.30.30.30.30.30.20.30.4

-0.1

0.70.20.3

-0.5

0.3

-0.3

-0.9

1.2

1.94.03.93.93.8

3.43.43.4

4.2

5.4

3.5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2011

0.2

2010 2012

-0.1

2009

0.50.0

2008

3.1

0.1 0.10.2

2020

0.2

201920182017

0.2

2016

3.8

20152014

0.2

2013

0.0

2007

5.7

WorldOther Advanced Economies EUUSIndiaChinaOther Developing Economies

Forecast

6.76.3

3.1

7.0

0.3

4.7

5.8

2.92.7

1.8

3.9

5.1

0

2

4

6

8

Europe

3.2

Western HemisphereMiddle East

1.7

AfricaAsia and Pacific

5.5

2014-20192008-20132002-2007


1.11.00.90.60.60.50.5

0.10.1

-0.4-0.6

-1.6

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Phi

lippi

nes

1.8S

lova

k R

epub

lic1.3

Sou

th A

frica

Thai

land

Chi

na

Turk

ey

0.8

US

0.8

Indi

a

0.7

UK

Bra

zil

Sou

th K

orea

Ger

man

y

Can

ada

0.2

Indo

nesi

a

Japa

n

Pol

and

-0.2

Den

mar

k

-0.2

Net

herla

nds

Mal

aysi

a

Nor

way

-1.2

UA

E

Rus

sia

-3.7

Sau

di A

rabi

a

-3.8

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

BaselineEstimate

Upper Range

US$ 40-50US$ 60-70US$ 80-90Brent OilPrice Scenario

NA294 174 106 47 -453 1 -16 -99-146 -3 53 -74 -3 -10 -148 -274 -218 -38 -15 -5 -6

Trade Balance of Crude Petroleum Oils (In US$ Billion, 2013)

Circle color: Net Exporting Countries Net Importing Countries

Falling oil prices stand to have a major impact on the global economy, shifting resourcesaway from major oil producers and boosting oil-importing economies with large consumermarkets. Overall, lower oil prices will stimulate net global growth. While current projectionshave the price per barrel remaining at US$ 60-70 in 2015, a drop to US$ 40-50 would increase global growth by nearly half a percentage point. The impact will vary by country, ranging from an almost 4% slowdown in real GDP growth in Saudi Arabia to a 2% increase in GDP in the Philippines

LOW OIL PRICES WILL POTENTIALLY HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON GLOBAL GROWTH, shifting gains from oil exporters to consumers in oil importing economies

World Real GDP Growth Under Different Oil Price Scenarios as per IHS(In % Y-o-Y of Real GDP Growth, 2015)

Country Changes in GDP Growth in the Dramatic Scenario of a Drop of Oil Barrel Prices from US$84 to US$40(In % Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth Relative to Real GDP Growth at US$ 84/Barrel Rates, 2015-2016)

Source- Upper Chart: Global View Insights, IHS, 2015Sources- Lower Chart: Bloomberg (based on Oxford Economics); International Trade Centre Trademap Database, 2013

Looking Ahead 7


Looking Ahead 8

Source- Upper Chart: “World Economic Output”, IMF, Apr. 2015Sources- Lower Chart: Penn Table; World Bank Development Indicators

Real GDP Growth(In % of 10-Year Moving Average Growth, 1970-2013)

Potential Growth of Advanced Economies by Source of Growth(In %, 2004-2020)

Potential Growth of Emerging Economies by Source of Growth(In %, 2004-2020)

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS HEADING INTO A PERIOD OF LOW POTENTIAL GROWTH, with the risk of secular stagnation – driven by ageing population and slowing innovation– affecting standards of living

Both developed and emerging markets face a decline in potential growth after the crisis. In developed economies, the slowdown stems largely from low capital growth and low potential employment as the population ages. As for emerging markets, low factor productivity is the major cause of low potential growth. The low growth has led many economists including those at the IMF to see a risk of “secular stagnation.” With secular stagnation, economies would grow more slowly, making it hard to raise standards of living

0.70.8

0.6 0.5 0.6

0.7 0.5

0.4

0.20.3

0.8

0.5

0.2 0.6

0.7

0.6

0.2

0.7

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2015-202013-142011-122008-102006-072004-05

2.22.6 2.8 2.8 2.7

0.80.6

0.6 0.7 0.7

3.94.2 3.5

2.8

2.1

2.0

2.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

2015-20

0.3

2013-142011-122008-102006-072004-05

Capital GrowthPotential Employment GrowthTotal Factor Productivity GrowthPotential Output Growth

Forecast Forecast

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

USUKJapanItalyGermany


Looking Ahead 9

US growth is being driven by solid employment growth, a drop in unemployment, stronger non-residential activity and continuing low inflation. The Canadian economy has benefited from growth in the US, its biggest export partner

NORTH AMERICAN GROWTH WILL BE ROBUST, with the US growing at 3.1% in 2015/16 and Canada benefiting from a rise in exports to a recovering US economy

North America’s(1) Economic Outlook: Overview of Major Regional Economies(In Current US$ Billion, 2015 and In % Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth Rate, 2014-2015)

Notes: (1) Includes the United States and Canada and excludes Mexico (2) Projections of decreasing GDP, when applicable, are partially driven by lower oil prices and depreciating currencies against the US$Source: “World Economic Outlook”, IMF. Apr. 2015

Size = Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth(In %, 2014-2015)Sample Size= 2.4%

Nominal(2) GDP(In Current US$ Billion, 2015)

1,000-4,999

> 10,000%

Real GDP Growth Nominal GDP

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

-4

-2

0

2

4

16151413 201918171209 1110

Billions %

Canada Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth (In US$ Billion and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

Forecast

%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

-4

-2

0

2

4

2019181716111009 15141312

Billions

US Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth (In US$ Billion and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

Forecast3.1

2.1

US

Canada


Looking Ahead 10

Note: (1) Projections of decreasing GDP, when applicable, are partially driven by lower oil prices and depreciating currencies against the US$Source: “World Economic Outlook”, IMF. Apr. 2015

Many Latin American economies depend on exports of commodities and have been hit by the drop in commodity prices. In addition to the challenges in international trade, many countries face domestic constraints, including supply bottlenecks, tight labor markets, and uncertainty over policy direction

Latin America and Caribbean’s Economic Outlook: Overview of Major Regional Economies(In Current US$ Billion, 2015 and In % Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth Rate, 2014-2015)

LATIN AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SLOW GROWTH, with lower external demand and weak domestic economic activity

0

200

400

600

0

2

4

6

8

201918171615141312111009

Colombia Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

Billions %

Argentina Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

0

200

400

600

800

-5

0

5

10

201918171615141312111009

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

-5

0

5

10

201918171615141312111009

Billions %

Mexico Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

Billions %

3.3

-7.0

5.1

4.0

Chile

Argentina

Venezuela

Brazil

DominicanRepublic

Paraguay

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

-5

0

5

10

201918171615141312111009

Billions %

Brazil Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

6.1Panama

-0.3

2.5

Trinidad &Tobago

2.3

2.7

3.8Costa Rica

El Salvador

4.0Guatemala

1.9Ecuador

1.2

3.0

2.8Uruguay

4.6Nicaragua

3.4Colombia

4.3Bolivia

Size= Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth(In %, 2014-2015)Sample Size=4.5%


15-39<15 40-149 150-500 >500 %

Nominal GDPReal GDP Growth

-1.0

Honduras

Bahamas

3.3Haiti

Mexico

0

100

200

300

-10

-5

0

5

10

201918171615141312111009

Billions %

Venezuela Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

Suriname

2.73.8Guyana

Peru3.8

Forecast

Forecast

Forecast

Forecast

Forecast


Looking Ahead 11

Source: “World Economic Outlook”, IMF. Apr. 2015

Europe’s growth remains slow, although a recovery is anticipated given the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing and the drop in the price of oil. However, some structural problems remain, including rigid labor markets, barriers to competition and slow innovation. Emerging Europe, like advanced Europe, has a varied outlook with countries like Poland, Hungary and Turkey growing quickly while others struggle

Europe’s Economic Outlook: Overview of Major Regional Economies(In Current US$ Billion, 2015 and In % Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth Rate, 2014-2015)

EUROPE’S GROWTH IS UNEVEN IN BOTH ADVANCED AND EMERGING COUNTRIES, with its biggest bloc– the Eurozone–still growing slowly

Size=Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth(In %, 2014-2015)Sample Size= 3.5%

Nominal GDP(In Current US$ Billion, 2015)

20-99<20 100-399 400-999 >1000%

Germany Belgium

Switz.

Spain Portugal

France

Italy

Ireland

Finland

Sweden

UK Poland

Romania

Estonia

Turkey

Cyprus

Denmark

Serbia

Latvia

Iceland

Norway

Lithuania

Austria

1.63.5

2.7

2.1

2.3

2.9

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.7

0.9

0.54.6

2.3

2.5

1.2

4.7

3.0

2.5

2.8

1.6

2.5

3.8

1.5

3.1

1.0

0.8

1.2

1.3

0.8

0.5

3.9

3.5

2.7

-0.5

Albania

Luxembourg

Bos.& Herz.

Hungary Slovenia

Croatia

Czech Rep.

Montenegro

Slovakia

Greece

Macedonia

Bulgaria

Netherlands


Looking Ahead 12

Notes: (1) Mongolia, Georgia and Turkmenistan are not part of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) but are added to CIS countries in IMF’s regional analysis due to the similarity in their economies to CIS countries

(2) Projections of decreasing GDP, when applicable, are partially driven by lower oil prices and depreciating currencies against the US$Source: “World Economic Outlook”, IMF, Apr. 2015

Russia’s recession, the depreciation of the ruble, and the economic crisis in Ukraine will create problems for the whole region. Russia’s projected negative growth for 2015 reflects the impact of lower oil prices, economic sanctions and geopolitical tensions. Despite lower growth, many CIS economies still struggle with high inflation –the region as a whole is expected to have 17% inflation in 2015– reflecting pass-throughs from depreciating currencies

CIS(1) Economic Outlook: Overview of Major Regional Economies(In Current US$ Billion, 2015 and In % Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth Rate, 2014-2015)

RUSSIA’S CONTRACTING ECONOMY WILL AFFECT PROSPECTS OF GROWTH WITHIN THE CIS, with most countries’ economies slowing down

Size= Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth,(In %, 2014-2015)Sample Size= 1.5%

Nominal(2) GDP(In Current US$ Billions, 2015)

20-99

100-2,000 >2,000

5-19#


-5.5

2.0

0.6

1.7-1.0

-3.8

-2.3

-1.0

9.0

4.4

3.0

2.0

6.2

Russia

KyrgyzstanGeorgia

Armenia

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Ukraine

Belarus

Mongolia

Azerbaijan Tajikistan

Moldova

0

5

10

15

20

-10

0

10

20

30

201918171615141312111009

Billions %

Mongolia Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

Forecast

0

100

200

300

0

2

4

6

8

201918171615141312111009

Billions %

Kazakhstan Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

Forecast

0

50

100

150

200

-20

-10

0

10

201918171615141312111009

Billions

Ukraine Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

%

Forecast

Turkmenistan


Looking Ahead 13

Growth rebounded in parts of Asia towards the end of 2014 and is likely to continue in 2015/16. Faster growth in India is being driven by a rise in exports and investment. In China, the slowdown is a result of a reduction in credit in both the banking and nonbanking sectors. For most of Asia, growth is robust, although some vulnerabilities remain because of fiscal sustainability and current account deficits

SLOWER GROWTH DOESN’T MEAN NO GROWTH: ASIA PACIFIC WILL STILL BE ROBUST with South Asian economies faring particularly well

Asia Economic Outlook: Overview of Major Regional Economies(In Current US$ Billion, 2015 and In % Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth Rate, 2014-2015)


-0.5

2.8

6.3

4.8

6.0

1.0

3.3

2.9

3.0

2.8

3.3

3.8

4.3

3.5

3.7

5.0

5.2

6.7

6.5

7.5

6.8

6.8

7.3

7.2

8.3

19.3

New Zealand

Australia

China Japan

Malaysia

Bangladesh

Brunei

Fiji

Afghanistan

Singapore

Hong Kong

Korea

Taiwan

Pakistan

Thailand

Nepal

Indonesia

Philippines

Sri Lanka

India

Timor-Leste

Laos

Vietnam

Cambodia

Myanmar

Papua NewGuinea


Size= Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth(In %, 2014-2015)Sample Size=3.0%

%

1,000-4,999

5,000-11,000

<100

100-999

N/A


Looking Ahead 14

Note: (1) Projections of decreasing GDP, when applicable, are partially driven by lower oil prices and depreciating currencies against the US$Source: “World Economic Outlook”, IMF, Apr. 2015

Asia’s Economic Outlook: Selected Countries(In US$ Billion and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

Japan’s growth remains low but will rebound after the short dip caused by the consumption tax. Australia and South Korea’s growth will be helped by exports while ASEAN countries will enjoy robust growth resulting from high levels of investment and internal reforms. Thailand’s political uncertainty remains a major risk

CHINA’S GROWTH IS STABILIZING AS INDIA’S PICKS UP, with growth in much of the rest of Asia ticking up

Forecast

China’s Nominal(1) GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion, and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

Japan’s Nominal(1) GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion, and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

India's Nominal(1) GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion, and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

Australia’s Nominal(1) GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion, and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

South Korea’s Nominal(1) GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion, and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

Philippines’ Nominal(1) GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion, and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

Indonesia’s Nominal(1) GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion, and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

Thailand’s Nominal(1) GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion, and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

-10

-5

0

5

2015141312111009

0100200300

400500600

0

2

4

6

8

20151413121110090

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0

2

4

6

8

2015141312111009

0

500

1,000

1,500

0

2

4

6

8

2015141312111009

0

200

400

600

-5

0

5

10

2015141312111009

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

0

5

10

15

2015141312111009

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

0

1

2

3

4

2015141312111009


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

0

5

10

15

2015141312111009

Forecast

Forecast

Forecast

Forecast

Forecast

Forecast

Forecast

In US$ Billion In % In US$ Billion In %

In US$ Billion In %

In US$ Billion In %

In US$ Billion In %

In US$ Billion In %

In US$ Billion In %

In US$ Billion In %


Looking Ahead 15

Despite a predicted pick-up in growth for 2015, most MENA countries remain vulnerable because of their political instability.Their fiscal balances still need to be restored to provide buffers against shocks. Moreover, structural reforms are still required to generate employment and address infrastructure gapsand inequality

THE MENA REGION’S POLITICAL TURMOIL HINDERS NET OIL IMPORTING COUNTRIES’ GROWTH while net oil exporters are affected by lower oil prices

MENA’s Economic Outlook: Overview of Major Regional Economies(In Current US$ Billion, 2015 and In % Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth Rate, 2014-2015)


UAE

-2.2

2.5

5.5

2.7

3.2

3.8

4.0

1.8

3.0

4.7

1.3

0.6

4.6

7.1

Yemen

Saudi Arabia

Egypt

Jordan

Lebanon

Iran

Kuwait

Oman

Sudan

Iraq

Qatar

Mauritania

Libya

Morocco Tunisia

Bahrain

3.3

2.6

3.0


Size= Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth(In %, 2014-2015)Sample Size= 3.5%

%

< 10

10-49

50-149

150-399

400-800

4.4Algeria

N/A


Looking Ahead 16

Sub-Saharan Africa’s robust growth is expected to continue because of strong external demand and high levels of public and private investment. The drop in commodity prices is likely to affect the two largest economies—South Africa and Nigeria. Humanitarian crises, instability, and, in certain countries, financialvulnerabilities are among the other ongoing risks

SOLID GROWTH IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE although financialvulnerabilities, weakening external demand and further drops in commodity prices are major risks

Africa’s Economic Outlook Overview of Major Regional Economies(In Current US$ Billion, 2015 and In % Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth Rate, 2014-2015)

Note: (1) Projections of decreasing GDP, when applicable, are partially driven by lower oil prices and depreciating currencies against the US$Source: “World Economic Outlook”, IMF, Apr. 2015

>20030-49 50-200

<15 15-29Size= Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth(In %, 2014-2015)Sample Size= 2.0%


%

Nominal GDP

Real GDP Growth

0

10

20

30

40

0

5

10

15

201918171615141312111009

Billions %

Mozambique Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

0

200

400

600

-2

0

2

4

201918171615141312111009

Billions %

South Africa Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

0

200

400

600

800

0

5

10

1009 20191817161514131211

Billions %

Nigeria Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth(In US$ Billion and In % Y-o-Y, 2009-2020)

3.4

5.6

4.2

4.6

9.2

4.0

8.6

6.54.5

7.2

5.0

6.9

2.0

-15.4

6.7

5.2

3.5

7.0

5.55.0

2.8

4.4

4.6

4.8

0.2

5.76-1.47.7

4.8

5.6

5.5

-0.3 7.6

5.4

1.9

5.0

-12.8

MaliSenegal

LiberiaCote

d'Ivoire

Ghana

Burkina Faso

Niger Eritrea

South Sudan

Ethiopia

Lesotho

Mozambique

Botswana

Namibia

Angola

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Tanzania

DemocraticRepublic of the Congo

CongoGabon

Cameroon

Chad

Kenya

Malawi

Central AfricanRepublic

Equatorial Guinea

Benin

RwandaBurundi

Togo

Swaziland

Uganda

Nigeria

Madagascar

Sierra Leone

Guinea

South Africa

Forecast

Forecast

Forecast

GDP at PPP # # 20152014Rank

10

9

25

24

30

29

35

33

37

36

34

59

57

2,549

943

948

692

705

534

552

511

523

506

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800

546

Algeria 572

Bangladesh 572

264242

Venezuela 539

Iraq 534

Vietnam

South Africa 725

Philippines 745

Argentina 953

UK

Egypt 990

France 2,634

2,641

Denmark 256250

Myanmar

9

10

24

25

29

30

33

34

35

36

37

57

58

2015

20152014

2014

ChinaUSIndiaJapanGermanyRussiaBrazilIndonesia

18,97618,1257,9974,8433,8153,4583,2592,840

12345678

2,581


GDP at PPP # # 20152014Rank

10

9

25

24

30

29

35

33

37

36

34

59

57

2,549

943

948

692

705

534

552

511

523

506

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800

546

Algeria 572

Bangladesh 572

264242

Venezuela 539

Iraq 534

Vietnam

South Africa 725

Philippines 745

Argentina 953

UK

Egypt 990

France 2,634

2,641

Denmark 256250

Myanmar

9

10

24

25

29

30

33

34

35

36

37

57

58

2015

20152014

2014

ChinaUSIndiaJapanGermanyRussiaBrazilIndonesia

18,97618,1257,9974,8433,8153,4583,2592,840

12345678

2,581

THE UK IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE FRANCE IN TERMS OF GDP AT PPP, Egypt to overtake Argentina and Philippines to overtake South Africa

2015/2016 will see growth in the GDP of many emerging market economies, particularly in Africa and Asia. Moreover, the dip in economic activity in Latin America will result in many Asian economies overtaking major LAC players, as exemplified by Vietnam overtaking Venezuela

GDP at PPP Takeovers (In Rank and In International $ Billion, 2014 and 2015)


Looking Ahead 17


Nominal GDP # # 20152014Rank20152014

2,050

1,904

1,417

1,232

1,230

1,176

753

749

540

374

381

327

297

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400

1,857Russia

1,407Spain

806

Mexico 1,283

1,435

866

Argentina 563

328

Turkey

Brazil

Netherlands

437

Denmark

Malaysia

341

Thailand 386

Austria

2,353

India 2,308

2014 20159

15

14

10

18

17

24

32

28

35

34

7

8

11

13

14

15

17

18

21

29

30

33

38

7

123456

USChinaJapanGermanyUKFrance

18,12511,2124,2103,4132,8532,470

South Korea13

Looking Ahead 18

IN TERMS OF NOMINAL GDP, INDIA OVERTAKES BRAZIL WHILE RUSSIA DROPS BELOW SOUTH KOREA, MEXICO AND SPAIN

Deflation in many European and some Latin American countries has led to minimal growth in nominal GDP. Similar to trends in GDP at PPP, much of Asia continues to grow, with many Asian economies overtaking European and Latin American economies

Nominal GDP Takeovers (In Rank and In US$ Billion, 2014 and 2015)



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