Climate change and time traps …and what to do

Disclaimer: not necessarily the views of the government

Time trap 1: environmental inertia

Modelled warmingIPCC emissions scenarios

Source: Hadley Centre

and by the way…

"Not only have we not made progress, we are actively moving in the wrong direction,“

UNEP executive director Achim Steiner

Time trap 2: infrastructure transition

Fossil fuels

Transition…?

Source: IAASA Global Energy Assessment 2012 – World Primary Energy

Oil

Coal

Gas

Transition…

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

World Coal ConsumptionM

TOE

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012

Everywhere else

Asia & Pacific

Transition… the last 30 years

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 – note includes ‘commercial energy’ only

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

NuclearRenewables

World Primary Energy Share by Fuel

… transition?

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

World total car registrations (m)

Source: US Department of Energy, Transportation Energy Data Book 2012 edition

Car use - driving infrastructure demand?

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Vehicles per '000 people United States

Brazil 2010

China 2010India 2010

W. Europe 2010

Source: US Department of Energy, Transportation Energy Data Book 2012 edition. Specific country data for 2010

With country data for 2010 superimposed

Time trap 3: innovation

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

Toyota hybrid sales

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0

1,000,000.0

2,000,000.0

3,000,000.0

4,000,000.0

5,000,000.0

6,000,000.0

7,000,000.0

8,000,000.0

9,000,000.0

10,000,000.0

Toyota total sales - hybrid and non-hybrid

Time trap 4: changing human behaviour

Smoking prevalence All > age 16 (Britain)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Time trap 5: expectations and credibility

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

50

100

150

200

250

300

Shadow cost of carbon £/tCO2 EU ETS carbon price

Carbon price expectations

Carbon price floor

What do you believe?• UK will have 15% energy

consumption from renewables by 2020?

• UK will meet 4th carbon budget (1.95 bnTCO2 in 2023-27?)

• UK will reduce emissions by 80% by 2050 (cf 1990)?

• A post-Kyoto deal will be done by 2015 and enter force 2020?

• UK Carbon Price Floor will be £70/tCO2 in 2030?

• Global temperatures increases will be kept below 2 degrees?

What would you bet?

Time trap 6: future expectations

Estimating future emissions

Emissions?

GDP?

Economic structure?

Energy mix?

Infrastructure?

Population?

Land use?

Geography?

Trade?

GD

P p

er c

apit

a ($

US

)

CO2 emissions per capita (tonnes)Gapminder

GD

P p

er c

apit

a ($

US

)

CO2 emissions per capita (tonnes)

Luxembourg

Denmark

Germany

Austria

United Kingdom

EU-15

Belgium

Italy

Netherlands

Finland

France

Sweden

Ireland

Spain

Greece

Portugal

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

-28%

-21%

-21%

-13%

-13%

-8%

-8%

-7%

-6%

0%

0%

4%

13%

15%

25%

27%

EU-15 Kyoto burden sharing Target relative to base year

GD

P p

er c

apit

a ($

US

)

CO2 emissions per capita (tonnes)

19881988

19891990

19901991

19921992

19931994

19941995

19961996

19971998

19981999

20002000

20012002

20022003

20042004

20052006

20062007

20082008

20092010

20102011

20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Pollution / environmentQ What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?Q What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?(Unprompted - combined answers)

Most important issues facing Britain

Peak concern on climate

change

Exxon Valdez

Ozone hole

UK climate programme

(or GM?)

19881988

19891990

19901991

19921992

19931994

19941995

19961996

19971998

19981999

20002000

20012002

20022003

20042004

20052006

20062007

20082008

20092010

20102011

20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Economy

Most important issues facing Britain

Unemployment

Part 2: What to do about it?

What to do 1: just stop it!

Stop it! The 2oC commitment…

Developing countries peak in 2020 and fall at

8% per year after

Developed countries peak in 2010 and fall at

10% per year after

Anderson K , Bows A Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369:20-44

CO2 scenarios for approximately 37% chance of not exceeding 2°C.

What to do 2: form clubs

20 countries/blocs - 80% emissions

Source: Garnaut Climate Change Review

Concentration in innovation investment

0

20

40

60

80

100%

J apan China France Korea Brazil

UnitedStates Germany

UnitedKingdom

IndiaCanada

Russia

Gross expenditure on public & private R&D , 2007Percentage share of global total

Source: David Victor, Global Warming Gridlock - citing UNESCO data

What to do 3: switch to policies & measures

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Create a carbon price 2010= 1.0

• Globally co-ordinated carbon tax• Nationally collected• Possible consumption basis• Border taxes for non-participants• Predictably rising• Very long term• No shocks

What to do 4: pricing not quantities

What to do 5: focus on specific problems• Nuclear fuel cycle management• LNG infrastructure for China• Forest and sink protection• Global sectoral agreements – automotive, aviation, steel• Carbon pricing with border tax adjustments• Grid infrastructure for desert solar concentrators• Product and building energy efficiency standards• Water trading and river basin management

• Etc etc…

What to do 6: focus on ‘no regrets’

10

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

En

erg

y d

en

sity

by

we

igh

t (w

att

ho

urs

/ k

g)

Energy density by volume (watt hours / litre)

10,000

1,000

100

Gaseous fuels

CNG

Hydrogen absorbing

alloy

Hydrogen

Liquid fuelsEthanol

Gasoline

Bio-dieselDiesel

What to do 7: innovation strategy

Batteries

Lithium-ionNickel metal

Lead

Source: Toyota

Energy storage density

What to do 8: emphasise adaptation

Misallocation: low carbon vs adaptation?

Source: Policy Exchange, Delivering 21st Infrastructure for Britain, 2009

What to do 9: the geoengineering hedge

What to do 10: future proofing

What to do? Ten thoughts…1. Stop it!2. Clubs3. Policies & measures4. Global carbon price5. Problem focus6. No-regrets7. Innovation8. Adaptation9. Geoengineering hedge10.Future proofing

Six time traps1. Environmental response2. Infrastructure3. Innovation4. Human behaviour5. Credible signals6. Economic expectations

Thank you@clive_bates