ties that bind - seattle maritime 101 · seattle propeller club march 18, 2015 . mcdowell group...
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Ties that BindThe Enduring Economic Impact of Alaska on the Puget Sound Region
McDowell Group, Inc.Seattle Propeller Club
March 18, 2015
McDowell Group•Research and consulting since 1973•15 professional staff•Offices in Juneau, Anchorage, Bellingham•Areas of expertise: mining, oil & gas, tourism, seafood, transportation, health care, education
• Services: economic and socioeconomic analysis, surveys, market research, feasibility studies, community planning, program evaluation
About Ties That Bind•Previous reports: 1985, 1994, 2003• Six counties: King, Kitsap, Pierce, Snohomish, Skagit, Whatcom
• Sources: government agencies, industry‐specific impact reports, McDowell Group data, interviews, business survey
• IMPLAN for economic impact analysis
SponsorsPresenting Sponsor• Alaska Airlines Gold Sponsors• Lynden Transport, Inc. • Port of Seattle • Port of Tacoma• Shell Oil Company• Totem Ocean Trailer ExpressSilver Sponsors• Alaska Oil & Gas Association• Banner Bank • Foss Maritime Company• GCI ConnectMD• Jones Stevedoring Co.
Bronze Sponsors• Alaska Railroad• At‐sea Processors Association• Manson Construction• Port of Anchorage • Schnitzer• The Wilson Agency / Albers & Company, Inc.
• Transportation Institute • U.S. BankSupporting Sponsors• Alaska Salmon Alliance• Fifth Third Bank• Nexus NorthwestCo‐Presenters• Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce• Alaska Chamber of Commerce• Tacoma‐Pierce County Chamber of Commerce
Economic Impact
• Includes direct, indirect, induced impacts
• Alaska “exports”: 74,000 jobs • Puget Sound goods/services provided to Alaska
• Natural resources: 39,000 jobs • Fishing, processing, petroleum, tourism
Exports74,000
Natural Resources39,000
Economic ImpactsAlaska‐Related Jobs 113,000Alaska‐Related Labor Earnings $6.2 billion
Impact Trends
LaborEarnings
Jobs
$4.3 billion
$6.2 billion
103,500
113,000
(+12%*)
(+9%)
*Adjusted for inflation.
2003
2013
2003
2013
Ties that Bind: Sectors• Cargo/freight• Seafood• Passenger transportation/tourism• Petroleum• Maritime support• Health care• Education
Freight and Cargo
Freight and Cargo• 3.4 million tons moved between Puget Sound and Alaska in 2013
• 80% northbound, 20% southbound• 97% water, 2% truck, 1% air
• Trade with Alaska accounts for over 80% of domestic containerized shipments at Ports of Seattle and Tacoma (20% of total)
Economic ImpactsJobs 5,500Labor Earnings $450 million
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Alaska‐Washington Waterborne Cargo (Tonnage)
Northbound Cargo Southbound Cargo
Seafood• Largest Alaska‐Puget Sound Sector• Three components:
• Commercial fishing• Seafood processing • Government & industry orgs.
• Puget Sound residents own nearly 1,000 vessels participating in Alaska commercial fisheries
• 36 processors based in Puget Sound account for 82% of first wholesale value in 2013
Seafood Impacts• Commercial fishing
• 10,150 jobs• $600 million in labor earnings
• Seafood processing• 13,100 jobs • $690 million in labor earnings
• Government/industry orgs• 650 jobs• $50 million in labor earnings
Fishing10,150
Processing13,100
Govt/industry650
Economic ImpactsJobs 24,000Labor Earnings $1.3 billion
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$Millions
Washington Revenue from Alaska Seafood
WA‐Based Processors (Less Fish Cost) Gross Fishing Earnings ‐ WA Residents
$2,074
$619
$818
$2,462
Transportation & Tourism• Sea‐Tac: 1.1 million Alaska‐bound air passengers
•Port of Seattle: 430,000 Alaska cruise passengers
•Alaska Marine Highway: 14,000Alaska ferry passengers
Economic ImpactsJobs 14,100Labor Earnings $554 million
‐
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,00020
04
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Enplan
emen
ts or P
assengers
Air and Cruise Passengers: Sea‐Tac & Port of Seattle
Enplanements to Alaska from Sea‐Tac Cruise Passengers from Port of Seattle
Petroleum• Five refineries in Puget Sound: Ferndale (2), Anacortes (2), Tacoma
• Alaska is #1 supplier of crude to Puget Sound’s refineries (46% of their volume)
• 265,000 barrels/day
Economic ImpactsJobs 12,000Labor Earnings $780 million
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Barrels/Da
y (Tho
usands)
Petroleum Production: Alaska, Western Canada, and North Dakota
Alaska North Dakota Canada Oil Sands
Maritime Support• Services include ship construction, repair, maintenance, supply of marine‐related goods and equipment, & manufacturing
• Vessels from Washington represent 56 percent of Alaska fleet’s gross tonnage
Economic ImpactsJobs 5,300Labor Earnings $390 million
Health Care• Many services not available in Alaska• Shared providers: Providence, Providence/Swedish, PeaceHealth, Universal
• Shared expertise: 10% of Alaska physicians report WA address; WWAMI program
• Puget Sound facilities served over 2,000Alaska residents in 2013 at 33 different facilities (inpatient only)
Economic ImpactsJobs 1,200Labor Earnings $100 million
Education• Washington is #1 state for Alaska students attending out‐of‐state
• 600+ Alaska students at Puget Sound institutions
• 35 different Puget Sound institutions 2005‐12
• Programs: WUE, WWAMI, Alaska scholarships
Economic ImpactsJobs 250Labor Earnings $11 million
Tribal Ties• Five regional ANCSA corporations operate 14 subsidiaries in Puget Sound
• Subsidiaries represent a range of sectors: engineering, construction, security, timber, consulting
•850+ people employed in WA•$51 million+ in direct payroll in WA
Additional Ties• Federal government
• NOAA/NMFS• EPA Region 10• Military
• Business/professional services• Finance/banking/accounting• Public relations• Engineering• Law• Consulting
OutlookDOWNSIDE/FLAT
• Declining oil production and prices• Cargo, population, overall economic activity
• Alaska population projections modest at 1% annual• Seafood: stable value for 2015 (pending salmon season);
Alaska‐based processors growing• Limited cruise growth capacity
UPSIDE• Potential big projects: gas pipeline, OCS oil and gas development• Seafood: Long‐term upside due to resource size, management, & branding• Maritime services: aging Alaska fleet needs replacement• Tourism: will grow along with nationwide economy• Strong Puget Sound economy and population growth
• Alaska‐Puget Sound ties will continue to strengthen as economies and populations grow
More in the Report!•Overview of each economy•Additional detail on each sector
• Trends• Outlook
• Impacts on Alaska•Available at www.alaskachamber.comwww.seattlechamber.com
Ties that BindThe Enduring Economic Impact of Alaska on the Puget Sound Region
McDowell Group, Inc.Seattle Propeller Club
March 18, 2015