Thursday November 14, 2013• OBJ: SWBAT analyze the roll of incumbents in

government and weigh whether this is good for the country or not.

• Drill: How have the demographics in terms of north and south changed? How might this affect Congress, The Electoral College and Campaigns?

• Homework: write a paragraph defending your position on incumbency. Read Bubble Wars summarize strategies

Answers

• Different people elected in north and south• Focus on different issues• Change the Electoral College (states parties

usually win)

Overarching Question

• Is it a good thing (fair representation, noncompetitive elections) for incumbents to remain in office?

Incumbent Reelection (1946-2002)

Incumbent Re-election Success Rate

92%

8%

IncumbentChallenger

78%

22%

IncumbentChallenger

Incumbent victory percentage since 1946

House of Representatives

Senate

Now 98% (2004)

Now 96% (2004)

Read Noncompetitive Elections• In groups of 3 read the article.• Discuss the following questions• List the criticisms addressed in Lee Hamilton’s

commentary.• Discuss the validity of the criticisms.• Discuss Hamilton’s response to public

criticisms.• Be prepared to share 2 points from each

question.

IncumbentAdvantages?

ResponsibilityResources of

OfficeFrankingPrivilege

The Incumbents’ Advantages • Home style presentation to constituents (voters)• Advantage of Responsibility (of the office)– Bringing home the pork to one’s State or district– Supporting popular views of their constituents– Free advertisement of incumbent’s official activities – Local media reporting of Congress press releases

• Resources of Office:– Constituent service – staff responsive to voters – Who is a “helped voter” likely to vote for in future?– $$$ to return home on weekends=> direct meetings w/Voters– Franking privilege* (Newsletters- Figure 11-4)

The right of a member of Congress to send official mail

without paying postage.

FrankingPrivilege?

Election money is necessary for:

• Campaign workers

•Pollsters

•Offices

•Advertising

•Other expenses

Campaign Money

Campaign Money- contributors go with winners - (As result: who is most likely to win?)

Incumbency status makes raising $ easier (Fig 11-5)*

Sources of Funds for Congressional Candidates- 2004 Elections

Name Recognition & Its Advantages• Name Recognition- ultimate advantage of

incumbent– Voters vote for who they know & like

• Even though voters may dislike Congress in general– The voters invariably like their own representative– (Or vote for whose name they recognize on the ballot)• Sort of like the way some answers are selected during exams?

• What are the disadvantages of the Challenger?– (the reverse of all of the above)

Voters and Election Outcomes

• So…when do incumbents lose?• Lose touch with constituents (perception)– “Potomac fever” (Lost inside “the Beltway”)

• Scandal => Bad Press back home• Midterm elections- unpopular president– Voters send a message to party in power– Senators especially vulnerable

• Another factor: Divided government?*

Pros and Cons

• Each group will create a pro and con list for keeping incumbents in office.

• Use your knowledge of Congress and the article you just read.

Wrap Up

• Should there be term limits, explain?