threats and opportunities in milk and dairy products trade ankara, 20th may 2014 béranger guyonnet,...
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Threats and opportunities in milk and dairy products trade
Ankara, 20th May 2014Béranger GUYONNET, CNIEL, France
2
WORLD DAIRY PRODUCTION
World dairy production (all categories included)
Geographic breakdown of world milk production in 2013 (million tonnes)
World total: 767 million tonnes
Europe 21628%
EU-27 157Russia 31Ukraine 12Belarus 7
Asia 292 38%
India 138 China 40Pakistan 39Turkey 17Africa 47
6%Sudan 8Egypt 6Kenya 5
Central America 17 2%
Mexico 11
N. America 10013%
United States 91 Canada 8
S. America 67 9%
Brazil 34Argentina 11Colombia 7
Oceania 29 4%
New Zealand 20Australia 9
FAO Food Outlook May 2014, IDF-DCANZ for NZ
4
Asia biggest contributor to milk output increase
Evolution of dairy production (all categories included) 2007 to 2013
World total: + 91 million tonnes
Europe + 2 Mt
Asia + 54 Mt
Africa + 7 Mt
South America + 11 Mt
Oceania + 3 Mt
CNIEL / IDF, FAO Food Outlook Mt: million tonnes
North & Central America + 8 Mt
World average annual growth rate
+ 2.1%
5
Growth dynamics in main dairy producing countries (1/2)
CNIEL / ZMB, FAO Food Outlook
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 (e)70
80
90
100
80.3 82.5 84.2 86.2 85.9 87.5 89.0 90.9 91.6
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
Million tonnes
+ 1,7% / year
USA
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 (e)130
135
140
145
133 132 133135 134
136139
141 142
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
�
Million tonnes
+ 1,1% / year
EU 25, EU 27(cow's milk deliveries)
- 0,7%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 (e)10
14
18
22
14.6 15.2 15.9 15.617.0 17.1
18.920.5 20.1
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
Million tonnes
+ 4,0% / year
New Zealand
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 (e)6,000
10,000
14,000
18,000
22,000
10,026.010,867.011,279.011,255.011,583.011,916.013,802.0
15,977.815,990.1
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
Million tonnes Turkey (cow’s milk production)
+ 10,3% / year
+ 3,5% / year
+ 6,0% / year
6
Growth dynamics in main dairy producing countries (2/2)
CNIEL / IDF, FAO Food Outlook, national statistics
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 (e)20
25
30
35
25.426.7 27.6 28.4
30.031.6
32.9 33.7 34.8
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
Million tonnes
+ 4,0% / year
Brazil
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 (e)28
30
32
34
31.1 31.332.2 32.5 32.6
31.9 31.6 31.9
30.5
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
Million tonnes
- 0,2% / year
Russia
+ 1,1% / year - 1,7% / year
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 (e)25
30
35
40
27.5
31.9
35.3 35.6 35.2 35.8 36.6 37.435.3
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
Million tonnes China (cow's milk production)
+ 3,2% / year+ 13% / year - 5,6%
+ 0,6% / y.
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 (e)90
110
130
150
95 100108 112 116
122127
134141
Rendement (kg / vache / an)
Millions tonnes
+ 5,0% / year
Inde India
7
NB : deliveries in Europe
CNIEL / USDA, ZMB, PZ, DCANZ, Dairy Australia
Growth dynamics in main dairy producing countries – rolling 12 month basis
2011
2012
2013
2014
85,000
87,000
89,000
91,000
93,000
95,000millions de tonnes
USA
2011
2012
2013
2014
136,000
138,000
140,000
142,000
144,000
146,000millions de tonnes
EU 28
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000 millions de tonnes
2011 2012 2013
Australia
2014
2011
2012
2013
2014
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000millions de tonnes
New Zealand
In most areas, agricultural yields may drop by 2050
Projected percentage in agricultural yields by 2050 (given current agricultural practices and crop varieties)
World Bank (World Development Report 2010)8
FAO – The State of the World's Land and Water Resources for food and agriculture, 20119
Many dairy regions face water scarcity issues
Low
Moderate
High
10
WORLD DAIRY TRADE
Most emerging countries present a trade deficit for dairy products
11CNIEL
Representation of dairy product surplus and deficit countries in 2011
Trade surplus (positive balance > 2% production)
Trade deficit (negative balance < 2% production)
Trade balanced
12
World Trade
IDF, FAO Food Outlook
Global trade:
53 million tonnes
7% of global production
World trade: key exporters, export share (%) (B)
(B) Based on milk equivalents.
19%
4%
4%
7%
12%
26%
28%
0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 30%
Rest of world
Argentina
Belarus
Australia
USA
EU 27
New Zealand
13
Presence on the world marketRecent export tendencies among major suppliers of the world market
NB: Evolution of exports on a volume basis
CNIEL / USDA, Dairy Australia, Commission, ZMB, Ubifrance, national customs
EU-28Exports 2013 2 m 2014SMP -21% +49%WMP -3% +22%Butter +0% +21%Cheese +3% +0%Whey +5% +7%
New ZealandExports 2013 3 m 2014SMP +0% -25%WMP +2% +13%Butter -3% +41%Cheese +2% -9%Whey -10% -63%
AustraliaExports 2013 3 m 2014SMP -29% +34%WMP -11% +19%Cheese +1% -9%
ArgentinaExports 2013 1 m 2014WMP -10% -10%Cheese -6% -3%
United StatesExports 2013 3 m 2014SMP +25% +26%Cheese +22% +42%
*Russian imports do not account for volumes originating from BelarusNB: Evolution of imports based on volume
CNIEL / Ubifrance, national customs14
Demand is sustained on main marketsRecent import tendencies on substantial markets
United StatesImports 2013 3 m 2014Cheese -4% -2%Caseins -4% -4%
RussiaImports* 2013 3 m 2014Butter +20% +29%Cheese +3% +3%
JapanImports 2013 3 m 2014Cheese +1% -10%
ChinaImports 2013 3 m 2014SMP +40% +100%WMP +53% +72%Whey +15% -3%
AlgeriaImports 2013SMP +6%WMP -25%
BrazilImports 2013 3 m 2014WMP -23% -58%Cheese +14% -30%
15
WORLD DAIRY CONSUMPTION
Geographical variations of dairy product consumption
Apparent dairy product consumption levels in 2013 (kg per capita)
CNIEL / IDF, FAO Food Outlook, PRB
Less than 50 kg
50 to 100 kg
100 to 200 kg
More than 200 kg
China 41
India 109
Indonesia 13
Japan 70
Philippines 12
Iran 107Algeria
147Mexico 116
Argentina 232
Brazil 178
USA 275
Canada243
EU286
Russia 243
World average: 109 kg/capita Australia 309
Sudan229
Geographical variations of dairy product consumption
CNIEL / IDF, FAO Food Outlook, PRB
Apparent per capita consumption (kg – in milk equivalent)
2006 2012 %
World 101 108 +7
Asia 61 71 +16
Africa 42 48 +14
Latin America 129 151 +17
Russia + Ukraine + Belarus 253 255 +1
EU + North America + Australia+ New Zealand
290 284 -2
Dairy consumption: fast growing regions
IDF, FAO Food Outlook
Development per capita consumption in fast-growing countries per region (2012 compared to 2005)
South America Asia Africa
+ 27%
+62%
+13%
+26%
0 50 100 150 200 250
South America
Venezuela
Colombia
Brazil
kg
2012
2005
+22%
+28%
+39%
+24%
0 30 60 90 120 150
Asia
Indonesia
China
India
kg
2012
2005
+16%
+26%
+24%
+38%
0 50 100 150 200 250
Africa
Egypt
Kenya
Algeria
kg
2012
2005
NB : Human consumption of dairy products, butter excluded, in milk equivalent ; losses and dairy used as animal feed excluded.
CNIEL / FAOSTAT, FMI
0
4000
8000
12000
0
50
100
150
200
GNP per capita (USD) Dairy product consumption per capita (kg)
Russia (USSR before 1992)
0
2000
4000
6000
0
10
20
30
40
GNP per capita (USD) Dairy product consumption per capita (kg)
China
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
80
GNP per capita (USD) Dairy product consumption per capita (kg)
India
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
0
50
100
150
GNP per capita (USD) Dairy product consumption per capita (kg)
Brazil
Income and dairy consumption in the BRIC
Strong growth, especially in Asia
20
OECD
Middle class projections
Middle class : people living in households with daily per capita incomes of between USD10 and USD100 in Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) terms.
2009 2020 20300
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Africa & Middle East
Asia Pacific
Central & South America
Europe
North America
Billion people
28%
54%
66%
36% 22% 14%
18% 10% 7%
10% 8% 6%
8%
7%
7%
4.9 Billion
3.2 Billion
1.8 Billion
21
WORLD DAIRY PRICES
22
World market prices still at high levelsFOB price in Oceania US$ 1,000 / tonne up until April 2014
CNIEL / USDA
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
WMP
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
BUTTER
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
SMP
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
CHEDDAR CHEESE
23
2011 2012 2013 20141,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Butter SMP WMP Cheddar cheese
USD per tonneWhat next?
?
SUMMARY Bad weather + High input prices had led to a low start
in 2013 But global dairy production is now rapidly rebounding Dairy demand remains strong, esp. from emerging
markets Markets put under pressure and reached record levels Next?
Seasonal peak in Northern hemisphere End of quotas in Europe Weather & sanitary issues ...
Q&A
Thank you for your attention