thinking systemically or, why did that happen? a workout … for your brain the commonwealth...
TRANSCRIPT
Thinking SystemicallyOr, Why Did That Happen?
A Workout … for your Brain
The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. Michael Ayers [email protected] (h/w)612.308.0501 (c)
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 2
A Real Story
Cust. Perception of Quality
Performance on QA Metrics
QA Efforts
Alloc. of $ to QA over Marketing
Marketing Efforts
Performance of Marketing
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 3
A Little More Detail
Cust. Perception of Quality
Performance on QA Metrics
QA Efforts
Alloc. of $ to QA over Marketing
Marketing Efforts
Performance of Marketing
RRS
O
O
S
S
S
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 4
A System Is ... “… a perceived whole whose elements ‘hang together’
because they continually affect each other over time and operate toward a common purpose.”
- The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 5
Social Systems are ... “… systems that have purposes of their own, are made
up of parts that have purposes of their own, and are parts of larger systems that also have purposes of their own, and these larger containing systems include other systems that have purposes of their own. .”
- The Democratic Corporation,
Russell Ackoff
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 6
Terminology - 1 Variables
Behavior over time Internal and External
Links or Mental Models How does this cause that?
Marketing Efforts
Time
Mar
keti
ng E
ffor
ts
S
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 7
Mental Models Fill in the blank:
As X changes, Y changes because...• As the performance of Marketing changes, the
allocation of dollars to QA over Marketing changes in the opposite direction because …
Alloc. of $ to QA over Marketing
Performance of Marketing
O
… we need to put our resources where we’ve seen some return on investment!
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 8
Loops Reinforcing Balancing
Delays Not about passage of time per se, but about
how the passage of time confuses us and removes the cause-effect relationship from view
Terminology - 2
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 9
The Triggering Question
Using a ‘Why’ question• ‘Why does variable x exhibit
troublesome behavior z?’• divergence• goal is understanding first• we can try any proposed intervention mentally, as
a ‘thought experiment’
Preferred to ‘What’?• convergence• tends to elicit the answer, the solution
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 10
The Importance of Being Earnest Some of the value lies with the product
• the one-page system model and another page of notes on mental models
• reviewable in less than an hour
Much of the value lies in the process• the conversation and exploration,
the inclusion and exclusion• the hours invested by bright people exchanging
ideas and perspectives
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 11
Appropriate Circumstances Challenge which is
chronic complex critical
Team which is knowledgeable committed vested
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 12
The Archetypes Fixes that Fail Success to the Successful Tragedy of the Commons Shifting the Burden ...several others
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 13
Beyond Events
The Level of Events
The Level of Patterns
The Level of Structure
Move from event to pattern to structure
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 14
Higher Leverage Thinking Events -- Reactive
Patterns -- Anticipatory
Structure -- Generative
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 15
Interventions Typically, understanding serves as a step
on the way to intervening Classic interventions:
• Remove a delay• Change a mental model• Focus on a new, more important variable• Make a key outside variable part of the system• Move up to the next ‘higher’ system
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 16
Supplements: Why Think Anyway?
We can usefully examine how we think along a couple dimensions: the style of the thinking the purpose of the thinking
• creative generate alternatives• critical improvement of processes• analytic explanation• systems understanding• reflective integrating new experience
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 17
Data Models Entity Relationship Models
• “What information will we need?” Process Models
Data Flow Diagram • “What are the processes performed and how do
they interact?” Event Models
State Transition Diagram • “What processing is triggered by external events?”
Systems Model Causal Loop Diagram
• “Why is my system behaving this way?
A good model answers questions we haven’t thought to ask
Causal Loops vs. Other Models
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 18
“The first objective of modeling is to attempt a simplification of the real-world situation through abstraction. Abstraction involves selecting, from all those available, certain prominent features by which the real-world system can be represented meaningfully. A good model must display the same characteristics or properties as the slice of world from which it has been extracted. However, because a model is much simpler, it can be more easily studied and manipulated to yield a solution.”
System Design, Modeling, and Metamodeling John P. van Gigch
“A model is a representation of the structure of information within an organization or part of an organization. It has a scope, whose exact boundaries are often difficult to establish. . . . It is important to be aware of the perspective of a model: i.e., which stakeholders are included. . . . The intended purpose of a model influences its focus, and the appropriate style and detail.”
Information CoordinationRichard Veryard
Models Generally
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 19
Other Resources - 1 The Quality Story - “Unanticipated Side Effects of Successful
Quality Programs: Exploring a Paradox of Organizational Improvement”
• http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/ADI/ADI.html “Sustainable Accessibility: A Grand Challenge for the World and for
MIT”• http
://video.mit.edu/watch/sustainable-accessibility-a-grand-challenge-for-the-world-and-for-mit-9538/
The interesting stuff starts at 17:30. It is a sample of what systems thinking looks like in action, presenting a real problem but without any explanation of what the notation represents and omitting certain elements of the notation.
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. 20
Other Resources - 2 The Fifth Discipline by Senge The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook by Senge et al. The Dance of Change by Senge et al. Systems Thinking, Systems Practice by Checkland Soft Systems Methodology in Action by Checkland and Scholes Seeing Systems by Oshry Smart Thinking for Crazy Times by Mitroff Systems 1 -- An Intro to Systems Thinking by Kauffman Polarity Management by Johnson Re-Creating the Corporation by Ackoff The Goal by Goldratt Billibonk and the Thorn Patch by Ramsey
June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.
Example from RCLA
21June 2015
© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.
… and the Supporting Mental Models
22
As the first variable changes, the second variable changes in the indicated direction because …
1) of the usefulness of a coherent approach in bringing about substantive change.
2) of the need to establish pattern for a life of happiness and respect.
3) of the sense of empowerment that the pattern can be changed.
4) the priority can trigger willingness to fully engage with what is offered.
5) while ‘tolerance’ can be altered by a sense of success, much of the will to seek or even expect success is driven by ‘personal values’.
6) of the impact on what we read in the papers and see on the 10 o’clock news.
7) the news largely drives public opinion and complaints to policy makers.
8) the money follows the pressure and priorities since not everything can be fully funded.
9) getting people together to share ideas, research data, and expertise simply takes time and energy.
10) the impact that a ‘unified front’ has on the ease-of-access and reduction of intimidation by ‘the system’.
11) people are more willing to follow through if the unnecessary barriers are removed.
12) in many cases people need some sort of clear and unambiguous wake-up call before they’ll take action.
13) while we believe that children can, in fact, recover from a violent upbringing, the sense that they just don’t see what’s going on around them or the sense of denial that it has a long-term impact is widespread.
14) through effective collaboration, we can bring a consistent message to the people involved in domestic violence and a sense of ownership for the action of returning time and again to a potentially violent environment.
15) though effective collaboration, we can bring a new sense of children’s real awareness of their environments and the enormous potential long-term impact of creating a new generation without tolerance for family violence.
Note that the interventions involve adding one new variable (Use of Volunteers) and converting two formerly external variables (i.e., outside the system) to internal variables (i.e., bringing them inside the system). That has the consequence of creating two new loops (1-6-7-8-9-14-12-5-3-4 and 1-6-7-8-9-15-13-4) both of which are also balancing loops — that is, they’ll serve as additional brakes on the system.
June 2015