thinking about international migration
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Thinking About International Migration. Douglas S. Massey Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs Princeton University. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Thinking About International Migration
Douglas S. Massey
Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs
Princeton University
Origins of 9.1 Million Legal US Immigrants Arriving 1991-2000
15
30.9
24.8
10.8
11.8
6.7
EuropeAsiaMexicoCaribbeanOther LARest
Origins of 7 Million Undocumented Migrants 2000
68.7
6.7
2.4
5.5
4.6
0.7
11.4
MexicoCentral AmericaCaribbeanS. AmericaAsiaCanadaUknown
Origins of All U.S. Immigrants:Documented and Undocumented
45.5
13.8
6
20.1
14.6
Mexico
Latin America
Caribbean
Asia
Other
Top Five Misunderstandings About International Migration
1. Migration is Caused by Rapid Population Growth
2. Migration is Caused by Poverty and a Lack of Development
3. Migrants Move Mainly in Response to Wage Differentials
4. Most Migrants Intend to Settle Permanently
5. Increasing the Costs of Entry Will Reduce Migration
Migrationand
Natural Increase
Zlotnik, Hania. 2004. “Population Growth and International Migration.” Pp. 13-34 in Douglas S. Massey and J. Edward Taylor, eds., International Migration: Prospects and
Policies. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
y = -0.1311x + 0.2382
R2 = 0.0317
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00
Rate of natural increase
Net
mig
ratio
n ra
te
All countries Linear (All countries)
Migrationand
Economic Development
Massey, Douglas S. 1988. International Migration and Economic Development in
Comparative Perspective.” Population and Development Review 14:383-414.
Rate of Immigration to US by Per Capita Income
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
Per Capita Income (PPP)
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
Rate of Immigration by Per Capita IncomeLatin America and the Caribbean
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000
Per Capita Income
Rat
e o
f Im
mig
rati
on
Mexico is Not a Poor Country!
Mexico USA Russia CongoPer Capita Income $8,900 $36,300 $9,700 $600Industry % Agriculture 5% 2% 6% 55% % Manufacturing 26% 18% 35% 11% % Services 69% 80% 59% 34%Demography Urbanization 74% 75% 73% 29% Life Expectancy 72.3 77.1 67.7 48.9 Fertility 2.5 2.1 1.3 6.7
• Within Mexico: US Migration Associated With More Development
Not Less Development in Communities
Effect of Community Development on Rate of Migration to US
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Percentage of Women Employed in Manufacturing
Pro
bab
ilit
y o
f U
S M
igra
tio
n
Relative Effect of Binational Wage Gap on Rate of Migration to the
United States
Massey, Douglas S., and Kristen E. Espinosa. 1997. “What’s Driving Mexican Migration to the United States?” American Journal of Sociology 203:939-999.
Effect of Wages versus Interest Rates on Probability of US Migration
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
Expected Wage Ratio Mexican Real Interest Rate
Ch
ang
e in
Pro
bab
ilit
y
Permanence of Mexican Immigration
• Historically Migration Has Been Circular– 1965-1985
• 85% of Undocumented Entries Were Offset By Departures
– Over Same Period• Annual Probability of Return Was 33%• Around 70% Back Home within 5 Years
– Massey, Douglas S., and Audrey Singer. 1995. “New Estimates of Undocumented Migration and the Probability of Apprehension.” Demography 32:203-13.
Effect of Costs of Entry on Undocumented Migration
• Massey, Douglas S., Jorge Durand, and Nolan J. Malone. 2002. Beyond Smoke and Mirrors: Mexican Immigration in an Age of Economic Integration. New York: Russell Sage.
Size and budget of Border Patrol and INS 1978-98 (1986=1.0)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Year
Ratio
to 1
986
Valu
e
INS Budget Border Patrol Budget Border Patrol Officers
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
IRCA Major Immigration Acts
Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure, and unknown causes along border 1986-98
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
En
trie
s
Operation Blockade Launched In El Paso
Cost (1983 dollars) of hiring a coyote (border smuggler) 1980-98
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Do
llar
s
Tijuana Non-Tijuana
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
Probability of taking first undocumented trip to the U.S. 1980-98
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Pro
bab
ility
Males Females
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
Probability of Apprehension by Year
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Year
Pro
bab
ility
per
Att
emp
t
IRCA PassesOperation Blockade Launched
Consequences of Misunderstanding
• Sharp Decline in Return Migration
• Nationalization of Immigration
• Decline in Wages for Legal Migrants
• Waste of Money
• Waste of Lives
Probability of returning from U.S. on first trip1980-98.
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Pro
bab
ility
Pre-IRCA Period
Post-IRCA Period
Opertation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
Percentage of Undocumented Migrants Going to Non-traditional Destination on Last U.S. trip 1980-98
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Per
cen
tag
e
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
Wages (1983 U.S. dollars) earned on last U.S. trip 1980-98
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Do
llars
per
Ho
ur
Documented Undocumented
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
Relative cost of Border Patrol enforcement 1980-98
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Do
llars
Cost ($10,000) per Point Cost ($) per Entry
Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure, and unknown causes along border 1986-98
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
En
trie
s
Operation Blockade Launched In El Paso
Thinking About International Migration
Douglas S. Massey
Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs
Princeton University