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Use of Systems Models in Infrastructure
The UK journey towards infrastructure systems & the experience of small-‐island developing states
Dr. Will UsherEnvironmental Change Institute, School of Geography,University of Oxford
Supporting decision makers
Infrastructure development
• What to do?• Where to do it?• When to do it?• How much of it to do?
How can we best address those challenges?What challenges do we face?
Evidence to support infrastructure decisions
Infrastructure development
Evidence Base
• What to do?• Where to do it?• When to do it?• How much of it to do?
Scenarios
Population
Technology
Economy
Climate
Strategies for infrastructure provisions
Interdependent infrastructure system models
NISMOD-DB
National infrastructuredatabase
Metrics of future infrastructure performance
New infrastructure
Demand management
Improved efficiency
Spatial planning
Service delivery Capacity margin Cost Carbon emissionsVisualisation
Energy
Transport
Digitalcommunications
Water supply &waste water
Flood protection
Solid waste
What challenges do we face? How can we best address those challenges?
National Infrastructure Databases National Infrastructure Systems Modelling
• Interdependencies• Forecast demands• Infrastructure decisions• Performance metrics
ITRC timeline: UK Impact
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Now
UK SAGEScientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
Start of the ITRC Programme
Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC)
To develop and demonstrate a new generation of data, simulation models and tools to inform the analysis, planning and design of national infrastructure
• 10 years (2011-‐2021)• $15 million US dollars• 7 Universities• Oxford lead• Multiple stakeholders
• Industry• Government
ITRC timeline: International Impact
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Curaçao Resilient Infrastructure Conference
SAGEScientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
Start of the ITRC Programme
UK
International
The UK context
• Infrastructure vital for:– Economic growth– Social wellbeing– Environmental protection
• Formation of Infrastructure UK– First National Infrastructure Plan (NIP)– List of projects – rather than a plan
• Modelling and simulation are powerful tools to:– Find efficiencies and savings– Optimise policies and investments– Robust to demographic and climate changes– Address environmental issues
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
The UK ITRC First Assessment
UK ITRC First Assessment• Building our national infrastructure database• Building infrastructure systems models• Preliminary testing of future infrastructure strategies and scenarios
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Supporting the cross-‐sectoral approach
SAGEScientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
“The government recognises that meeting the UK’s infrastructure ambitions requires a long-‐term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-‐cutting and strategic approach”
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Infrastructure Customers at Risk of Disruption due to Flooding of the Thames Catchment
Indirect Risk
Direct andindirect risk
Direct risk
Establishing a vision for UK infrastructure
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Recommendations:• Cross-‐ministerial planning unit• National infrastructure assessment
• Pro-‐active – Defined by a strong vision
Portfolio A
Portfolio B
Portfolio C
Strategic Goal
Decision point A-‐B
Decision point B-‐C
The National Infrastructure Commission
“The National Infrastructure Commission is an independent body that enables long term strategic decision making to build effective and efficient infrastructure for the UK.”
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
• A National Infrastructure Assessment (NIA)• Long-‐term needs and how they can be met
• Specific studies• Addressing key challenges
• Annual monitoring report• Progress towards NIC recommendations
Next Generation Modelling of Infrastructure
National Infrastructure System Model – NISMOD v2.0• Modular approach
• System-‐of-‐systems model of linked infrastructure simulation models• Explicitly describes interdependencies• Simulates performance of coupled infrastructure systems
• Explore consequences of decisions under long-‐term planning strategies using high-‐performance computing
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Summary: The UK journey
• The UK is driving best practice• Infrastructure planning• Infrastructure systems modelling
• Co-‐evolution of governance and modelling• Long-‐term• Vision-‐based• Cross-‐sectoral
• Lessons learnt along the way…• Many lessons for other countries and contexts
• Start simple – build complexity• Start with ‘key sectoral challenges’
Recent experience in Caribbean
• UNOPS’ adoption of ITRC’s infrastructure system modelling and assessment approach
• Curaçao Resilient Infrastructure Conference• Achieving Sustainable Development Goals• Linked issues across infrastructure sectors
– Economic dependence on tourism– Little waste water treatment– Reliance on desalination for fresh water– Legacy of fossil fuel reliance (diesel generators)– Excellent renewable energy resources– Very poor solid waste infrastructure
Photo Credit: Curacao Ministry of Traffic, Transport and Urban Planning