theme – 2 adaption of potato crops to climate change
TRANSCRIPT
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R . S c h a f l e i t n e r 1
J . R a m i r e z 2
A . J a r v i s 2
D . E v e r s 3
R . G u t i e r r e z 4
M . S c u r r a h 4
1 A V R D C – T h e W o r l d V e g e t a b l e C e n t e r , T a i w a n 2 C I A T , C o l o m b i a 3 C R P - G a b r i e l L i p p m a n n , L u x e m b o u r g 4 C I P P e r u
Adaption of the potato crop to climate change
Walter Amoros
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AVRDC – The World Vegetable Center
Founded in 1971 as the Asian Vegetable Research and Development Center with a regional research focus on Asia
Our research and development is nonprofit
Our research outputs are global public goods
The World Vegetable Center has an expanding global role with a growing network of regional offices
Alleviate poverty and malnutrition in the developing world through the increased production and consumption of health-promoting vegetables.
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• Vegetable production generates higher farm income and more jobs than other crops
• Especially suited for small farms and women farmer
• Vegetable value chains strengthen the rural economy
Vegetables are healthy – and a path out of poverty
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AVRDC – The WORLD Vegetable Center
Headquarters
Africa Central America
East & Southeast Asia
South Asia
Central & West Asia and North Africa
Oceania
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Our Crop Portfolio
Solanaceae:
− Tomato
− Pepper
− Eggplant
Bulb Alliums:
− Onion
− Garlic
− Shallot
Legumes:
− Mungbean
− Vegetable
soybean
Crucifers:
− Pak Choi
− Broccoli
Cucurbits:
− Cucumber
− Pumpkin
Indigenous
vegetables
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AVRDC Themes
Germplasm
Breeding
Production
Consumption
60,000 accessions 150 vegetable species
Adapted lines suitable for smallholder farmers for variety and hybrid development
Production technologies, disease resistance genes, integrated pest management
Postharvest, nutritional value, access to markets, promoting healthy diets
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AVRDC Biotech - Molecular breeding
Molecular marker technologies for genebank scientists, breeders and pathologists
Population development, wide crosses, embryo rescue
Genetic engineering
Enhance efficiency, effectiveness and economy of cultivar improvement
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Potato and Climate Change
Global temperatures are likely to rise
Precipitation patterns are likely to change
Potato is sensitive to heat and drought
Potato production is likely to be affected by climate change
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Potato and Climate Change
Which climatic effect will affect potato production where and to which extent?
cipotato.org
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Climate changes projections for potato growing regions
Baseline
Averages 1960 – 2000 of monthly max, min. and mean temperatures and precipitation
Resolution of 30-arcsecond (~1 km), reduced to 5-arcminute (10 km)
Future climate
Statistically downscaled output of Global Circulation Models 2010-2039
SRES-A2 emission scenario “business as usual”
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Potato production areas
Summer potato in temperate zones: 45° N – 57°N Winter potato in subtropical lowlands: 23° N – 34° N 25% of the potato area > 1000 m altitude
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Present and future climate suitability for potato production
EcoCrop model (based on FAO database of crop ecological requirements)
Parameters: Tkill: Temperature at which the crop will die
Tmin: Minimum temperature at which the crop will grow
Topmin: Minimum optimum temperature at which the crop grows
Topmax: Maximum optimum temperature at which the crop grows
Tmax: Maximum temperature at which the crop will grow
Rmin: Minimum amount of rain water required for the crop to grow
Ropmin: Minimum optimum amount of rain water required for the crop to grow
Ropmax: Maximum optimum amount of water for the crop to grow
Rmax: Maximum amount of rain water below which the crop grows
Gmin: Minimum length of the growing season
Gmax: Maximum length of the growing season.
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Present and future climate suitability for potato production
EcoCrop model (based on FAO database of crop ecological requirements)
Separate suitability indices for temperature and rainfall
Computing final suitability rating by multiplying temperature and precipitation suitabilities
http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/ClimateChange/EcoCropFB/#
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Present climate suitability for potato
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Present climate suitability for potato
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Current climatic limitations for potato
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Predicted suitability 2020
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Predicted suitability 2020
• Highest reduction in suitability in tropical highlands & southern Africa
• Large gains in suitability in high latitudes or high tropical altitudes
• Net change: +1.3 % suitability
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Potential benefits from improved stress tolerance
1) Heat tolerance (+2.5°C)
Climate change impact reduction on 65% of current potato area
Expansion to 15.5 million hectares of new area
2) Cold tolerance (-2.5°C)
Plus 8.7 million hectares of new suitable area
3) Drought tolerance (25% less water requirement)
Benefit for 2.8 million hectares – overlapping with heat stress tolerance impact areas
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Conclusion
CC predictions suggest potato yield reductions in the tropics and large gains in high latitudes
Reducing temperature sensitivity would have largest impact on CC adaptation of the potato crop
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Suitability Modeling for Vegetable Production
Scattered production area
Microclimates
Irrigated
Protected agriculture
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