the world of tomorrow
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The world of
Tomorrow
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40 years ago, we were 4 Billion.
Today, we are 7 Billion human beings
on Earth
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
10,000 BC
Wo
rld
po
pu
lati
on
(in
Bil
lio
n)
8000 BC 6000 BC 4000 BC 2000 BC 0 1000 2013
+3 Billion
1973 2013
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In years 40 Average revenue
per person
Illiteracy rate Life expectancy
+15years x3 -50% -60%
People living below
the poverty line
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UNPRECEDENTED TECHNOLOGICAL
REVOLUTIONS DISRUPTED
PEOPLE’S LIFESTYLES
1971
NMR
Medical
diagnosis
MICRO
PROCESSOR
1970
Mass market
computer
hardware &
software
1974
Personal data
and privacy
MICROCHIP 1978
Localization
GPS 1981
People
transportation
and train freight
HIGH-SPEED
TRAINS
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1983
1989
e-commerce,
mass
information
storage and
sharing
1992
2005
Ipod, Iphone,
Itunes and IPad
MOBILE
PHONE
WORLD WIDE
WEB
DIGITAL
CAMERA 2013
?
HOMO-NUMERICUS
IS ON
Digital pictures
mass creation
and replication
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Predicting the future is
impossible, but we are
allowed to envision it.
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4 OVERARCHING TRENDS
2. Political and
economic
power
redistribution
3. Disrupted
Demographics
4. Water, Food,
Energy: natural
resources
under strain
1. People’s
emancipation
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People are
emancipating
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…A FAST-PACED GROWTH OF
THE MIDDLE-CLASS SEGMENT…
15% Middle-class:
Higher propensity to consume
Social upward mobility through hard work
Higher geographic mobility
40%
2013 20302013 2030
15%
40%
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REDUCED
POVERTY
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REDUCED
POVERTY
2013
1 000 Million
2030
500 Million
Number of people living with less than 1.25$
of revenue per day worldwide
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ACCESS TO
EDUCATION
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2013
7.1 years
2030
8.7 years
Average number of years of the academic cycle
in North Africa and the Middle-East
ACCESS TO
EDUCATION
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BETTER
ACCESS TO
HEALTHCARE
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2013 through 2030
- 30%
Transmissible diseases contribution to world
mortality (AIDS, paludism, B hepatitis, etc.)
BETTER
ACCESS TO
HEALTHCARE
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…FASTER ADOPTION OF
NEW TECHNOLOGIES
Electricity 46
Telephone 35
Radio 31
Color television 18
Mobile phone 13
Internet 7
1870 2013
Number of years needed for a
technology to be adopted by
25% of the US population
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Political and
economic power is
being redistributed
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• In 2030, Asia will be bigger than Europe and the
US in terms of:
• GDP
• Population
• Military and defence expenditure
• Investments in R&D
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• China alone will be bigger than the US in economic
terms before 2030
• India and Brasil will keep up with their current growth
rates
• Colombia, Indonesia, South Africa, Nigeria and Turkey
will become key players of the world economy
• The European, Japanese and Russian economies will
stay on the decline
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AGILITY
TRANSPARENCY
COOPERATION
THE WORLD WILL BE MULTI-POLAR THE US HEGEMONY WILL COME TO AN END.
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Demographic
disruptions will
shake up the way
we live
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In 2030:
8,4 Billion individuals will live
on our planet:
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A global aging of the population,
especially in western countries (but not only)…
Year :
GERMANY & JAPAN EUROPE / KOREA / TAIWAN 2013
Median age ≈ 45 y.o.
Year : 2013 Median age ≈ 38 y.o.
100+
0
100+
0
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….that will lead to a gradual impoverishment and to
more migrations from these countries.
Year :
GERMANY & JAPAN EUROPE / KOREA / TAIWAN 2030
Median age ≈ 50 y.o.
Year : 2030 Median age ≈ 45 y.o.
100+
0
100+
0
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…URBANIZATION WILL NOT
SLOW DOWN…
2030
30%
1960
X2 IN 70 YEARS
60%
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5 cities the
size of London will
be built on a
yearly basis
and maybe more
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Natural resources
are under strain
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THE WORLD OF TOMORROW,
ALSO IS…
A WORLD OF THREATS
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Global military
withdrawal of the US
Cyberterrorism and
use of weapons of
mass destruction
Iran’s isolation
1 2 3
POLITICAL
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Severe pandemic
1
PUBLIC HEALTH
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China’s collapse
1 European Union and/or
Eurozone’s collapse
2
ECONOMICAL
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Geomagnetic
solar storm
1 Uncontrollable
global warming
2
CLIMATIC
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THE WORLD
OF TOMORROW