the winners and losers in the move to the real-time cloud communications
DESCRIPTION
Slides presented at the Illinois Institute of Technology Real-Time Communications Conference and Expo is a globally recognized collaborative event, where industry and academia connect.TRANSCRIPT
The Winners
Losers in the move to
Real-Time Cloud Communications
Structure
• The Facts
• Why do we need APIs?
• Why all the big numbers?
• Mapping the Cloud Communications API landscape
• Where to Focus?
• Where is the Telecom Application Developer Ecosystems going?
• Who are the winners and losers?
2
© 2010 Alan Quayle Business and Service Development
No developed market telco has successfully engaged
mobile application developers with Telecom
APIs
BUT Telecom API successes have come from
using APIs internally
AND Telecom API successes have come from
using APIs with existing partners
APIs reduce business friction. This means the value is not ‘in
the API’ it’s in the service or data delivered through the API.
Mobile Application Developers ONLY care about direct access to
a large engaged customer base that is prepared to pay.
Apple and Android fulfill this need, Telcos are IRRELEVANT
This is the Most Important Slide in the Pack R
eve
nu
e
Product
Internal Telco Developers
Partner Developers
Telecom App Developers
Mobile App Developers
Long Tail Developers
‘Cut and Paste’ web developers using web-scripting and graphical tools on
app platforms (10Ms)
IT/Web Programmers building on FOSS, telecom app
platforms and telecom APIs (1Ms)
What do we mean by Telecom App Developer?
Hardcore Telco Software Infrastructure
(10ks)
All based on IT / Web Technologies and Development Principles
Developers that recognize they build telecom apps
today
‘Cut and Paste’ web developers using web-scripting and graphical tools on
app platforms (10Ms)
IT/Web Programmers building on FOSS, telecom app
platforms and telecom APIs (1Ms)
What do we mean by Telecom App Developer?
Hardcore Telco Software Infrastructure
(10ks)
All based on IT / Web Technologies and Development Principles
Developers that recognize they build telecom apps
tomorrow
What is an API?
• http://www.telco.com/api.php?action=remove_friction
APIs reduce business friction by making it easy for software systems to work together using existing well understood web technology that any IT person can understand
Why do we need Telecom APIs?
1995 2000 2005 2010
Why do we need a Web site?
Of course we have a Web site
Why do we need an API?
Of course we have an API
Innovation Upsell
New business
Operational efficiency Increase footprint Accelerate internal projects
Extend products / services
Make churn harder Partner opportunities
New distribution Device and mobile support
Telecoms is the ‘vital spice’ of any successful business ecosystem
Process automation
Show me the money? graphic
Where’s the Money in External APIs?
Mobile payments revenue, source BI Intelligence. Includes Apple, Android, Square, Visa Mobile, etc. $244B by 2017
$157B by 2018 Total Telecom API revenue, source Mind Commerce. Payment, Communications, Identity, Cloud, etc.
$18B in 2016
Alan Quayle’s view is the revenues will be $18B and dominated by payment and communication service revenues by 2016
Juniper predicts DCB (Direct Carrier Billing) growing from $2.5B in 2012 to $13B in 2017 (this assumes only digital downloads, not goods and services)
Easy and Economical 90%
Global comms clouds Laggards 10%
Telco becomes the “path of last resort” as apps use “easy and economical” APIs for 90% of
comms Applications
Customers
Telco
What if a Telco does nothing?
Mapping vendors across the API landscape
Cloud / BOSS Assets
IT / Service Assets
Network Assets
IMS Assets
Transactional APIs
e.g. call control
Informational APIs
(e.g. customer profile)
Developer
Community
Developer
Portal
API
Management
API
Services
Network
Gateway
API Publishers Tropo, Twilio,
etc.
API Management (including API Security) Intel Software (Mashery), CA (Layer 7), Apigee
Mapping vendors across the API landscape
Cloud / BOSS Assets
IT / Service Assets
Network Assets
IMS Assets
Transactional APIs Informational APIs
Developer
Community
Developer
Portal
API
Management
API
Services
Network
Gateway
Intel (Aepona), Ericsson, Huawei, Oracle, Open Source
Apigee, Intel (Mashery), Layer 7 (CA), SOA Software, 3Scale, IBM, Open Source
2600Hz, Aculab, Apidaze,
Bandwidth, hSenid Mobile,
OnMobile, OpenCloud,
Plivo, Restcomm, Solaiemes,
TelAPI, Tropo, Twilio, etc.
Where are External Telco APIs going?
• External Telecom API Roadmap
o Payments: whether to expand beyond digital downloads
o Communications: across all VAS not just calls – RCS, messaging,
number provision, WebRTC, etc.
• Focus on building a businesses around the APIs rather than
publish and wishful thinking
o Sales, marketing, business development and critically support
o Traditional transition from tech-focus to business-focus
Customers
Services
Fixed Voice
($325B)
Mobile Voice
($615B)
Fixed Data
($275B)
Mobile Data
($275B)
Regulated Services($1.5T)
Un-regulated Services($650B)-5 to -7%
5.5 to 9%
3 to 4%
0 to 2%
0-2%
Total Telecoms Services($2.15T)
3-6%
+ =
Over the Top Messaging hits SMS growth
Mobile substitution of fixed broadband with LTE
OTT substitution, saturation, competition
Mobile and OTT substitution
Sources: operator averages across developed and developing markets, supplier estimates, Alan Quayle
1-3.3%
Threats to Revenue
There’s just 2 things we need to focus on
Make Telecoms an Essential Spice for every Business Recipe
Do more VAS!
Telecom Application Developer Ecosystem R
eve
nu
e
Product
Internal Telco Developers
Partner Developers
Telecom App Developers
Mobile App Developers
Long Tail Developers
‘Cut and Paste’ web developers using web-scripting and graphical tools on
app platforms (10Ms)
IT/Web Programmers building on FOSS, telecom app
platforms and telecom APIs (1Ms)
What do we mean by Telecom App Developer?
Hardcore Telco Software Infrastructure
(10ks)
All based on IT / Web Technologies and Development Principles
Developers that recognize they build telecom apps
tomorrow
No Gatekeeper Focus
Motivation
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