DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION - March 2006

Background Paper No. 2

WATER RESOURCES OF THE

NORTHEAST: STATE OF THE KNOWLEDGE BASE

Prepared by:

CHANDAN MAHANTA

INDIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

Guwahati, India

This paper was commissioned as an input to the Study on Natural Resources, Water and

the Environment Nexus for Development and Growth in Northeast India

1. Background

1. Due to availability of newer tools of rapid and advanced testing and monitoring, the recent years have seen remarkable progress in generating vital data and development of sound knowledge base in all fields of natural resources. This is supported by established technologies such as Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP), improved echo sounding technology, real time kinetic global positioning systems, total stations, the capability to integrate GPS outputs with total station and/or depth sounders, and relatively newer technologies such as radar meteorology, soil vapour and extraction technology, isotope studies for ground water monitoring and assessment, and continuous real time monitoring with telemetric sensors to name a few. Yet, regions like the Northeastern part of India continue to face the daunting task of creating a dependable knowledge base for its chronically underdeveloped water sector. Even some of the established data gathering technologies are yet to find applications in this part, often leading to concern about the quality of data and subsequent information generated. On the other hand, notwithstanding an extraordinary water resource potential, this region still accounts for some acute water-starved pockets. Aggravating the situation is widespread poverty, which increases the risk of early depletion of quality of resources with accompanying environmental problems. The region also faces an increasing incidence of unrest and insurgency. These are related to growing unemployment, poor economy with lack of development, and a languid lifestyle often linked to shortage of means to utilize available resources to support productive engagement.

2. A long-term water resource management programme designed to develop a critical mass of indigenous productivity with the requisite technical, economic and social-cultural means for sustainable development is an urgent need. Both capacity and demand for local expertise to provide comprehensive evaluations of available water resources and ways of utilizing them are needed. The future of the Northeast rests significantly on how effectively concerted endeavors are made in the complex field of food security and water productivity. With growing surface water pollution and geogenic contaminations like Arsenic and Fluoride in groundwater posing serious health threats, the water quality issue too is becoming increasingly critical.

2. The context

3. The value of the water resources of the Northeast is yet to be fully appreciated and the intrinsic laws of the massive Brahmaputra-Barak system still to be understood. The first step towards facing this task is to develop a sound knowledge base, a lack of which is bound to affect the continuation of any development and management initiative at certain point of time. Considering the dimension of the challenge itself, not to talk about the complexity of issues, great effort would be required to achieve such a goal. Efforts, and therefore achievements have been limited so far. Considering the urgent need of ensuring safety of people’s lives and properties from recurrent water hazards, and that of promoting social and economic development or improving ecological services and impacts, it is important to take stock of the current status and put all out efforts to strengthen the knowledge base.

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4. Besides synthesizing available information, simultaneous research studies may need to be integrated towards building a knowledge driven decision support system. Such assessment and the synthesis, in the early stage, is bound to be affected by lack of organised data, but once the gaps are filled, this can constitute the core of a strategic plan of action for the promotion of a water resource development and management programme for sustainable livelihood of people. A policy group can factor the knowledge base into an overall strategy that can initiate practical measures and set definite goals towards creating large numbers of water resource management endeavours and enterprises.

3. Present status

5. While the need of addressing the social, economic and environmental dimensions of the water issues or assessment of availability, along with its spatial and temporal variations is being increasingly appreciated, whether it is quality or quantity assessment of water demand by various user/sectors (agriculture, domestic, industrial, environmental), a complete information infrastructure remains a far cry. Thus, one prime objective of developing a systematic knowledge base should be to examine the current understanding of integrated freshwater management quantitatively and qualitatively in the region. Information potential includes the fundamental freshwater issues, state of freshwater resources, existing policy packages, alternative policy packages, and gaps in information and monitoring aspects to address the freshwater concerns. Data collection process towards this effort encompasses the key domains of freshwater resources availability (surface and ground water resources), water demand by various sectors and assessment of future water availability.

6. A knowledge base should be adequate to enable best possible action. It generally improves information flow from local management realities to decision-makers and back, including improved engagement of stakeholders, integration of data, and raising funds to build information systems. This is hardly the case with the Northeast. Thus, knowledge management in the water resource sector in the NE is concerned with the development and exploitation of water-centred knowledge focusing upon:

• Identifying utilizable knowledge from previous studies and records • Getting hold of the knowledge , however limited, available with different

agencies and institutions • Transferring the knowledge in a form that facilitates use • Continuously working towards filling the gaps • Improving weak monitoring and quality control • Maintaining, sustaining, improving and updating the existing knowledge as a tool for sustainable, reasonable, equitable water utilization • Appreciation of complexity of water issues and respecting traditions • Wise decisions based on quality knowledge • Holistic policy based on sound knowledge base • Knowledge driven solutions emanating from a knowledge management system

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7. While the Northeast is considered, the inconsistency of available data in certain cases, complete lack of data in other cases, and the weak existing hydrological network in the region act as barriers to the development of a reliable knowledge base. Before initiating any plan of action, it is necessary to gauge the hydrological networks and database in the region. Besides natural data, a second category relates to economic and social aspects, and another category to the aspect of regularities. Unless all these aspects are equally emphasised, integrated water resources management would continue to remain a theoretical exercise. In the NE, the knowledge to be managed is both explicit, documented knowledge and tacit, subjective knowledge. Management of knowledge therefore entails all the processes associated with the identification, sharing and creation of knowledge. Systems for the creation and maintenance of knowledge repositories do exist in some form or the other in the departments and agencies like the Brahmaputra Board or the CWC, but a mechanism to cultivate and facilitate the sharing of knowledge and organizational learning is missing. 4. Surface water availability in the Brahmaputra and the Barak Basin

The Brahmaputra Basin

8. The Brahmaputra is a major international river covering a drainage area of 5,80,000 sq. km., 50.5 percent of which lie in China, 33.6 percent in India, 8.1 percent in Bangladesh and 7.8 percent in Bhutan. Its basin in India is shared by Arunachal Pradesh (41.88%), Assam (36.33%), Nagaland (5.57%), Meghalaya (6.10%), Sikkim (3.75%) and West Bengal (6.47%). The Brahmaputra traverses its first 1,625 km in Tibet, the next 918 km in India and the remaining 337 km in Bangladesh. The average width of the valley is about 86 km of which the river itself often occupies up to 20 km. The annual rainfall varies from 100 cm to 400 cm, most of which occurs during the monsoon months of May/June to September. Throughout its course in India the Brahmaputra is highly braided with some well-defined stable banks, where the river width is narrow. All along its course, abundant wetlands and back swamps are common in the floodplain.

9. The maximum peak of the Brahmaputra recorded at Pandu is 72,794 cumecs on 23rd August 1962 and 78,449 cumecs at Jogighopa in 1972. The low water discharge at Pandu is about 2,300 cumecs during the month of January/February. Observed maximum HFL at Pandu is 49.66 M. The average annual run off (yield) of the Brahmaputra at Pandu is 49.43 m ha m (400 m ac. ft.) out of which about 80% of the flow occurs during the monsoon. The maximum annual yield was 64.39 m ha m in the year 1977 (Vision 2020, Water Resource Department, Government of Assam). The highest water level reached at Bessamara was 88.01 m on September 16, 1987, while the lowest water level recorded was 80.11 m on November 30, 1985 (Table.1). Most of its major Himalayan tributaries experience flash floods during summer high flows (Sarma, 2005). NE is also distinguished from the rest of the country by several water resource attributes (Table 2).

Table 1 Mean annual flow of the Brahmaputra River (WAPCOS, 1993)

Station Period Mean annual flow in million m3

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Station Period Mean annual flow in million m3

Pasighat 1949–1962 and 1976–78 185,102.29 (5869.55 m3 s−1)

Bessamara 1977–1990 278,446.88 (8829.49 m3 s−1)

Bhurbandha 1977–1990 365,550.00 (11,591.51 m3 s−1)

Pandu 1955–1990 526,091.00 (16,682.24 m3 s−1)

Jogighopa 1955–1977 537,066.67 (17,030.27 m3 s−1)

(Source: Sarma, 2005)

Table 2: Water resources: availability and utilisation in the NE

Total water resources potential 537.2 km3 (30% of the country’s total)

Per capita water availability 18,400 cu m as against 2,208 cu m of the country

Hydropower potential 44% of the country’s total (66,065 MW out of country’s total of 1,48,701 MW) source:NHPC

Hydropower Potential developed so far Only about 3% as against 16% of the country

Irrigation potential 4.26 million hectare (m.ha)

Present coverage of irrigation 0.85 m.ha (20% of the existing potential against the national average of 56.4%)

Total replenishable Groundwater potential 26.55 km3/year against 431.42 km3/year of the country (6 % of country’s total)

Groundwater Potential developed so far 4.3% (against the national average of 32%)

(Source: Goswami, 2001)

10. The basin is of irregular shape; the maximum east-west length is 1,540 km and the maximum north-south width is 682 km (Dutta &Singh, 2004). The basin lies between 230N to 320N latitude and 820 E and 970 E longitudes. Land use pattern of the Brahmaputra and Barak valley based on recent satellite data indicates predominantly agricultural land and forest cover (Table 3).

Table 3: Land-use pattern of the Brahmaputa and Barak Valley

Type of cover Area in hectares Percentage of

total area

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Forest 17,26,400 21.98%

Agricultural land 42,48,600 54.11%

Built-up area 21,100 0.27%

Water bodies 5,67,200 7.10%

Waste land 3,15,700 4.02%

Others 9,83,300 12.52%

Total Area 78, 52, 300 100%

Source: Basic Statistics of NER, NEC Publication (2002)

11. In Assam the basin receives 300 cm mean annual rainfall, 66–85% of which occurs in the monsoon period from June through September. Mean annual discharge at Pandu for 1955–1990 is 16,682.24 m3 s-1. Average monthly discharge is highest in July (19%) and lowest in February (2%). Most hydrographs exhibit multiple flood peaks occurring at different times from June to September. The mean annual suspended sediment load is 402 million tons and average monthly sediment discharge is highest in June (19.05%) and lowest in January (1.02%) (Sarma, 2005).

12. In the Brahmaputra valley, 66–85% of annual rainfall occurs during the monsoon and 20–30% occurs during the pre-monsoon season and in the winter season (less than 1% in December, up to 2% in January, up to 4% in February and up to 6% in March). The first spell of rain with high intensity occurs generally in the month of April. This is closely related to the occurrence of the first flash flood in the otherwise smooth hydrographs of the tributary rivers. The average daily discharge is highest in July and lowest in February. On an average, July accounts for nearly 19% of the total annual discharge compared to 2% in February. Most of the hydrographs exhibit multiple flood peaks occurring at different times from June to October (Sarma, 2005).

13. WAPCOS (1993) carried out a longitudinal profile of the Brahmaputra from hydrological point of view (Fig.1).

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Fig. 1 The longitudinal profile of the Brahmaputra River (modified after WAPCOS, 1993).

(Source: Sarma, 2005)

The Barak Basin

14. The Barak basin is spread over India, Myanmar and Bangladesh and drains an area of 41,723 sq. km in India. In India, the basin lies in the states of Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Assam, Tripura and Nagaland with a total population of 6.2 million. Before entering Bangladesh, the river bifurcates into two streams called Surma and Kushiara. Further lower down, the river is called Meghna and joins the combined flow of the Ganga and the Brahmaputra. The principal tributaries of the Barak in India are the Jiri, the Dhaleshwari, the Singla, the Longai, the Sonai and the Katakhal. An average annual surface water potential of 585.6 km3 has been assessed in this basin. Out of this, 24.0 km3 is utilisable water. The average annual yield of Barak at Lakhipur was observed to be 14,077 m cu m, while monsoon and non-monsoon averages are 12,073 and 2,004 m cu m respectively (Barak Master Plan, 1988). Culturable area of the basin is about 13.04 m. ha., which is 7.1% of the total culturable area of the country. Like Brahmaputra, floods are an annual feature in the Barak basin, where the maximum flood prone area is of the order of 4.33 million ha. The highest annual rainfall recorded was 4,194 mm in the year 1989 and the annual average is 3,400 mm.

15. As against the national per capita annual availability of water at 2,208 cu.m, the average availability in the Brahmaputra and the Barak rivers is as high as 18,400 cu m. Major contributions come from a few large tributaries (Fig.2).The catchment area of Brahmaputra sub basin in India and Bhutan is around 2,40,000 Km2

. At present there are

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336 ordinary raingauges and 113 SR raingauges. Additional 68 SR raingauges and 636 ordinary raingauges in Brahmaputra catchment are needed to meet the WMO requirement. Raingauge network in the Barak basin is too short of WMO standard.

37%

11%10%8%

6%2%2%

1%

23%

Dehang (main stream) SubansiriLohit (head stream) Debang (head stream)Jia Bharali (Kameng) Burhi DihingKopili Kalang Dhansiri (S)Other tributaries above Pandu

Fig. 2: Percentage contribution of yield by the tributaries of the Brahmaputra

5. Water resource availability in the Major water bodies of the region

16. More than 3,500 wetlands, covering 1,01,232 ha. in the Brahmaputra valley which have great significance as unique habitats for exquisite varieties of flora and fauna and also as natural flood water retention basins (capacity not assessed yet) are getting degraded owing to various factors, such as i) inorganic and organic deposits which include sand, silt, clay, pebbles and other inorganic materials; this results in the reduced depth of wetland; ii) the blockage of feeder channels and roads; iii) construction of embankments, irrigation channels, roads; iv) reduced depth of many swampy area paving the way for encroachment and cultivation.

17. In Manipur there are about 155 wetlands covering an area of 52,959 ha, of which Loktak Lake (6,475ha) is one of the largest freshwater lakes in India. The Barak valley has a good number of floodplain wetlands harbouring a great variety of aquatic macrophytes. At present, there are nine important wetlands (haors) in the valley with a total area of 134 sq. km. Despite rugged terrain, Sikkim does have several small lakes, which are both spring-fed as well as river-fed. More than 10 natural lakes feature in Sikkim Himalayas, which are the major storehouse of water and significantly contribute to the stability of water ecology in the region.

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6. Groundwater Resources

18. Except for Tripura, in the other states of Northeast, the level of groundwater development is low. The net ground water availability of the state worked out to be 2.30 BCM. Assam, has highest groundwater potential among the N.E. states, but presently a mere 12.83% of groundwater is utilised. The over-all stage of ground water development of the Northeast is shown in Table 4.

19. Manipur has groundwater potential of 3,153.67 MCM out of which utilisable groundwater is 2680.61 MCM. The total annual ground water recharge is 0.38 BCM. The net ground water availability of the state is 0.34 BCM after deducting the natural discharge during non-monsoon. In Nagaland, because of varied topography, geological settings, tectonic activity, infrastructural facility, ignorance of people, the over-all stage of ground water development of the state is 2.86%.

Table 4: Ground water resource (dynamic) of North East India

Tota

l rep

leni

shab

le

grou

ndw

ater

re

sour

ce

Prov

isio

n fo

r do

mes

tic,

indu

stria

l & o

ther

us

es

Ava

ilabl

e gr

ound

w

ater

reso

urce

s for

irr

igat

ion

Net

dra

ft

Bal

ance

gro

und

wat

er re

sour

ce fo

r fu

ture

use

Leve

l of g

roun

d w

ater

dev

elop

men

t

Sl. No.

States

BCM/yr BCM/yr BCM/yr BCM/yr BCM/yr [%]

1 Arunachal Pradesh 1.44 0.22 1.22 - 1.22 Neg.

2 Assam 24.89 3.71 21.01 1.84 19.17 8.753 Manipur 3.15 0.47 2.68 Neg. 2.68 Neg.4 Meghalaya 0.54 0.08 0.46 0.02 0.44 3.97

5 Mizoram under estimation - - - - -

6 Nagaland 0.72 0.11 0.62 Neg. 0.62 Neg.7 Tripura 0.66 0.10 0.56 0.19 0.38 33.43

8 Sikkim Under estimation - - - - -

Source: Central Ground Water Board, India Neg : Negligible

20. The groundwater has played and will continue to play a key role in meeting the water needs even in the midst of abundance of rainfall and surface water due to geomorphological and agro-climatic conditions generally prevailing in the North-Eastern region. The catchment area is hilly with high slope with the result that major part of the rainfall is lost in surface run off. Apart from this, numerous streams, small rivers, nullas and springs also acts as carrier of ground water. For augmenting the sustainable ground water resources of the region, the Central Ground Water Board has explored the

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prospects of development of springs, roof top rainwater harvesting, and construction of shallow tube wells across the region and worked out the estimated cost of such recharge options.

21. The northern bank of the Brahmaputra river represents a mono-aquifer system and the south bank reveals three to four prolific aquifer systems of Quaternary age. Due to poor development of ground water, some of the areas are under water logged condition.

7. Potential of rainwater harvesting in the Northeast

22. Heavy monsoons notwithstanding, people in the hills suffer from acute water problem every year in the dry season. The geological formations do not permit water retention, runoff is quick, and springs and small streams dry off when there is no rain. There are documented instances of indigenous rainwater harvesting systems used for cultivation, of which some are ingenious. Settled agriculture is practised in the form of irrigated terrace cultivation in parts of Nagaland and a few villages of Meghalaya. Channels are dug to irrigate these fields. The other chief indigenous source of irrigation is the bamboo irrigation system found in parts of Meghalaya, and in some villages in the Mokokchung district of Nagaland.

23. Facing a water crisis every winter, the Mizoram government has taken up rainwater harvesting on a serious note. The method envisages fitting semicircular rain gutters fabricated with galvanised sheets to the eaves of roofs to collect rainwater, which are to be stored in reservoirs for use during the dry season. Sikkim has, over the years, evolved efficient water harvesting systems together with their traditional land management systems. Though Mizoram is making good stride with respect to rooftop rainwater harvesting, other states of the region are still on somewhat experimental stage.

24. The technologies of rainwater management are highly location-specific and are determined by physiographic, environmental, technical and socio-economic reasons. The main feature is to conserve rainwater where it falls, i.e. in the soil profile up to its maximum capacity and in storage structures for crop irrigation at a later stage. Ultimately the approaches have to be compatible with socio-economic adjustments of the target population. Some of these requisites are in exploratory stage in the Northeast.

8. Current water demands in the Northeast

25. Various figures are reported as the irrigation potential developed and potential utilized in official statistical documents published by the Government of India, the Government of Assam, the North East Council, the Fertilizer, Association of India and the Assam Agriculture University, Jorhat. In such a situation, the true picture with regard to the status of irrigation cannot be properly gauged. Further, the status with regard to the availability / use of irrigation for different crops is more or less unknown, as the crop-wise irrigation data have not been updated since 1953-54 (Planning Commission, 2002).

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26. Irrigation is the largest consumptive use of water in the Brahmaputra-Barak Basin, which accounts for almost 91% of total water consumption. However, most of the waters withdrawn for irrigation are lost as non beneficial depletion. The best possible way to reduce non-beneficial evaporation is to use effective irrigation practices such as precision irrigation techniques, adjustments of crop planting to match periods of less evaporative demand etc, reducing water or polluted water flowing to sinks, increase water reuse etc. Overall irrigation efficiency of the Brahmaputra basin is 32% and potential annual evapotranspiration is worked out to be 1,144 mm, which is lowest among the basins (Amarasinghe, 2005).

Environmental water requirements related to conservation of river courses

27. Most of the Indian rivers in general, and the Brahmaputra basin in particular, have monsoon driven hydrological regimes, where 60 –80% of the total flow comes in 3-4 wet months. Such rivers fall in highly variable flow regimes. The total EFR for such Indian rivers, estimated on the basis of information calculated by Smakhtin et al., (2003), range between 20% and 27% of the renewable water resources.

28. There has been little attempt has been made so far to establish environmental flows and define its costs, benefits and incentives. Given that flow restoration is likely to involve a re-allocation of water from current uses and users to in-stream uses, for example for fish and wildlife, the social and economic impacts are likely to be significant. However, the results of such regulation may vary substantially from one situation to another. Outcomes will depend on whether, and to what extent, the net economic returns generated by environmental flows exceed those of the original development of the rivers water resources. In the NE region, rivers flowing by the tea gardens, having intensive uses of fertilisers and pesticides, may require assessment of environmental flow vs. carrying capacity, and much of the fund required for restoring environmental flow may need to be borne through a “polluters pay” principle.

Current level irrigation and M&I supply

29. In the Brahmaputra basin, out of the total water withdrawals of 9.9 km3 (against 267 km3 for Ganges), irrigation accounts for 81%, domestic withdrawal 10% and industrial withdrawal accounts for 9% (Table 4). Potentially utilisable water resources (PUWR) of the basin are worked out to be 50 km3, out of which 90% is not developed at present. Part of PUWR is withdrawn at present and depleted through various processes. The process evaporation is the portion of PUWR, which is depleted through evaporation by the process it was withdrawn for. This includes evapotranspiration from irrigation fields and the consumptive use by the domestic and industrial sectors. This accounts for 3% of the PUWR for the Brahmaputra basin at present (Table 5).

Environmental water requirement related to Ramsar and other conservation sites

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30. A key step in any wetland conservation strategy is to define the desired ecological character of the wetlands. In the NE, this critical aspect has not been accorded enough importance. Many wetlands are already on the verge of losing their ecological character mainly due to eutrophication. Incorporation of floodplain wetlands into an integrated river basin management plan is of urgent necessity for overall management of water resources. However, such integration is yet to take place in the region, including the Ramsar sites.

9. Water demand scenario for the future

Water demands for the sub-basins of the Brahmaputra

31. In almost all sub-basins, maximum available irrigated area has been taken to be constant up to 2050 and no significant fluctuation in future water requirements has been projected. For computing water demand in different decades for irrigation, it has been assumed that the minimum area required for meeting the food grain requirement for population of the sub basins in that particular year will be brought under assured irrigation. To work out the food grain requirement, the per capita consumption has been assumed to be 590 gms and the average yield per hectare pre- kharif and kharif paddy under irrigated condition is taken as 6 tonnes/ha/year (Mohile, 2001).

Total gross and net water demands

32. A gross demand of 62.4 bcm and a net demand of 27.6 bcm has been projected by 2050 for meeting domestic, industrial, livestock and agricultural requirements (Table 6). The dependable flow of the Brahmaputra and Barak in the lean flow period is estimated to be of the order of 3,000 m3/sec and 45 m3/sec respectively at their exit points. The total groundwater potential of the two sub-basins, at about 31 bcm per year, can support for 240 days/annum, a draft of about 1,500 m3/sec. From a simple hydrologic point of view, the groundwater draft may in the long run lead to more reduction in the surface flows. But together from both sources, about 3,000 m3/sec of water is available (Mohile, 2001). The net withdrawal from the system, including groundwater, would be of the order 239 m3/sec in February, which is lower than the lean flow of 304 m3/sec. It is suggested that the low lean flow may be sufficient, subject to satisfying any environmental flow requirement.

Future water demand and food requirement in Northeast India

33. Using the medium projection of India’s 2050 population at 1.64 billion, the population of Northeast India by 2050 is estimated at about 80 million from its present 38 million. Based upon present consumption of around 500 gm per capita per day, the projected 2050 population of 80 million would, require 16 million tonnes of food grain annually. However, development of irrigation in this part of India is not encouraging and the region is food deficient. Production of food grain in 2002 is only 5.9 million tonnes. Unless adequate attention is paid to increasing food production, the region would have to

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depend largely on imports. However, considering the large water potential and available land, self-sufficiency is a desirable and achievable goal (Mohile, 2001).

International Dimensions

34. Brahmaputra-Ganga-Meghna constitutes perhaps the most complex of all international water negotiations. The combined scale of the environmental, social and technical issues has no equivalent anywhere else in the world. Given the scale of these problems and the paucity of regional resources that can be garnered to address them, it is not surprising that the negotiation of international cooperation should be protracted and uncertain.

35. A memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed between India and China in January 2002 for provision of hydrological information by China to India namely rainfall, water level, discharge and other relevant information on Yarlung, Zangbo, and Brahmaputra River in respect of three stations namely Nugesha, Yangcun and Nuxia in the flood season. The information is being furnished from 1st June to 15th October every year and is used for flood forecasting in the Northeast.

10. Current and future utilisation of water resources

36. The Brahmaputra Board was established as a statutory body under the ministry of water resources to plan for and to implement projects to harness the Brahmaputra-Barak system for hydropower, flood control and economic development. The Board has so far identified a series of “Drainage Development Schemes” that include hydropower dams, embankment reinforcement and other multipurpose projects. These projects are included in the respective Master Plans approved by the Government of India. Several studies suggest that it is likely to be economically unfeasible to transport water from the

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Table 5: Water withdrawals and water accounting in River Basins of India Water withdrawals Water accounting

Sector Withdrawal- % of total % of PUWR

Total

Irrig

atio

n

Dom

estic

Indu

stria

l

Tota

l ren

ewab

le w

ater

re

sour

ces

Pote

ntia

lly

utili

sabl

e w

ater

re

sour

ces

Proc

ess

evap

orat

ion

Non

-pro

cess

ev

apor

atio

n

Unu

tilis

able

ou

tflow

of

PUW

R

Unu

tilis

able

ou

tflow

of

retu

rn fl

ow

PUW

R n

ot

deve

lope

d at

pr

esen

t

River basins

Km3 % % % Km3 Km3 % % % % % All basins 645 91 5 4 1887 1034 24.4 11.0 2.9 3.1 59 Sabarmati 4.4 78 15 7 3.8 4.8 46 12 5.9 3.2 33 Subarnarekha 6.4 88 8 4 12.4 8.5 21 13 4.4 3.8 58 Mahi 5.3 89 5 6 11.0 6.6 39 19 3.7 2.9 35 Meghna 2.4 79 13 8 48.4 10.2 5 5 1.9 2.7 85 Brahmani &Baitarani 8.8 91 6 3 28.5 21.7 12 10 2.1 2.0 74 Pennar 14.0 94 4 2 6.3 10.3 60 18 5.2 7.9 9 Tapi 7.8 87 7 6 14.9 21.2 17 10 1.9 1.4 69 Cauvery 17.9 89 6 5 21.4 27.8 24 13 3.3 2.8 57 Narmada 12.4 92 5 4 45.6 43.9 12 6 1.3 1.2 80 Mahanadi 19.9 91 5 4 66.9 63.6 10 7 1.6 2.2 79 Brahmaputra 9.9 81 10 9 585.6 50.0 3 4 1.5 2.4 90 Krishna 41.0 90 6 4 78.1 77.9 24 13 2.4 2.0 59 Godavari 41.1 91 6 4 110.5 109.8 16 7 1.7 2.3 73 Indus 81.6 97 2 2 73.3 60.3 48 25 5.2 6.1 16 Ganges 266.8 91 5 4 525.0 386.5 26 11 3.2 3.0 56

(Amarasinghe, 2004)

Table 6: Total gross and net water demands

Sector Gross demand (bcm)

Consumption (%)

Net demand (bcm)

Domestic water supply Rural Domestic Livestock Total (rural)

2.920 0.694 3.614

--- --- 50

--- ---

1.807

Urban 1.533 30 0.459 Sub-total (1) 5.147 2.266 Industrial (2) 5.147 20 1.060 Agricultural Surface water Irrigation

--- 35.200

---

--- 44 ---

--- 15.500

--- Groundwater 16.900 50 8.500 Sub-total (3) (agriculture) 52.100 --- 24.300

Total (1+2+3) 62.39 27.630 (Mohile, 2001)

Brahmaputra to other states and one way that river can be beneficial is by harnessing the huge hydropower potential and diverting power to the other states (Biswas & Uitto, 2001). The hydropower potential developed in the N.E. region so far including those under construction is about 6 % of the total assessed potential.

Region-wise hydro power potential of the NE states

37. More than 80% of the hydro-power potential of the region is located in Arunachal Pradesh (32 % of the national potential. Dehang, Dibang, Kameng, Subansiri, Teesta, Kolong-Kopili and Lohit, along with upper Brahmaputra predominate the number of projects identified in the Brahmaputra Basin. Comparatively, number of projects identified in Barak and lower Brahmaputra is smaller. Four hydro-electric projects have been already executed without any flood storage provision on rivers flowing through Assam.

Irrigation

38. According to the Central Water Commission, the total irrigation potential of the NE states is estimated at 36.65 lakh hectares (NEDFI, 2002). Assam has the highest irrigation potential of 2,670 cu. km. However, both in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, the ratio of gross irrigated area to gross cropped area has declined over the years which indicates that many secondary crops are no longer irrigated due to absence of adequate facilities.

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39. There is need of irrigation during the Kharif season. During the spell of moisture stress in non-monsoon, the crop yield is only one tonne per hectare as against 3-4 tonnes per hectare in other parts of the country with established irrigation. Irrigation statistics of CWC for each state shows that except for Assam, the other states do not have comprehensive statistics on the irrigation front.

40. A perusal of the projected values indicates that irrigation potential likely to be created at the present rate will fall considerably short of the total net area sown of 27 lakh hectares, even at the end of 2020 A.D. At the end of the projected period it will be only 16.12 lakh hectares. The aggregated irrigation requirements for the Brahmaputra basin is estimated to be 1.95 million ha-m for kharif and 3.25 million ha-m for Rabi, while the total figure for the basin as a whole stands at 5.2 million ha-m (Goswami et al., 2004).

Navigation 41. The Brahmaputra and Barak including their tributaries are used extensively by local communities for local transport, irrigation and agriculture, yet their potential as major inland waterways remains untapped. Successive governments have given funds and priority to roads and railways, setting these as more effective tools of infrastructure support and overall development (Planning Commission, 2002). 42. Inland water transit and trade in the Indo-Bangladesh route need to be revamped and lacunae such as different procedures of evaluation of goods by customs staff from either country, delay in freight remittances, lack of availability of night navigation and limited number of ports of calls/customs stations has to be addressed (Planning Commission, 2002). 43. Brahmaputra being a highly braided and meandering river, there is need of developing several navigable channels, especially in the dry months. Development of short distance travel and freight, in addition to long term and long distance transport would be cost effective and benefits would accrue to local communities. Revamping and renovation measures of the IWT include improvement and modernisation of vessels with installation of basic equipment required for safe travel. The integration of the rail, road and inland waterway movement, setting up of inland container depots at the dispersal points served by rail, road and water is essential. Dredgers may be purchased instead of leased and used in the low draft season (November –April) continuously to maintain, deepen and widen existing channels.

Fishery

44. There is no reliable data on the fish production. The State Fisheries Departments do not have any machinery to collect fish catch statistics from rivers, beels and ponds. Often there seems to be bias in estimates. 11 Kg per capita is considered as annual requirement of fish. Assam's fish production can meet only about fifty five per cent of the estimated requirement of 280 thousand tonnes, since internal production stands at around 160 thousand tonnes (Department of Fisheries, 1997-98). The deficiency is met by importing fish by private traders from other states. According to the Department of Fisheries, the state imports around 20,000 tonnes of fish annually (Planning Commission, 2002).

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45. Assam has not been able to utilize its full potential of fish production, despite the initiation in 1995-96 of an eight year programme for improvement of pisciculture in the state under the World Bank aided Assam Rural Infrastructure and Agriculture Services Programme (ARIASP). The gross value of fish production in the state in 2000-01 is estimated to be around Rs 640.00 crores (Planning Commission, 2002). Technology, development of water resources, local entrepreneurial efforts and adequate provision of fund are required for the development of aquaculture in the state. According to the Department of Fisheries, the state has the potential to reach its production level up to 400 thousand tonnes annually (Planning Commission, 2002).

Water Tourism and Recreation

46. The water-tourism opportunities and adventure sports potential of the Brahmaputra-Barak system has hardly been harnessed so far. Except for small scale localised initiatives and occasional one-time events, there are very limited water tourism sites developed. Recently, some of the adventure sports activities like para-sailing, water sports, river rafting and angling are being promoted by the Department of Tourism. There is an annual angling competition held at Bhalukpung-Potasali every year in November in which Indian and foreign tourists participate. In Sikkim, rivers Teesta and Rangit offer long stretches which are ideal for safe rafting. The icy cold waters of the rugged Teesta have a series of rapids with varying intensity which offers one of the finest rafting stretches in the world. Overall, water tourism potential in the NE is very high but no organised assessment is available.

11. Water resources projects

47. Government of India’s grand plan to double electricity generation in the country, termed as 50,000 MW hydroelectric initiatives, proposed 162 new hydroelectric projects in 16 states of India, of which 62 are in the Northeast, with proposed installed capacity of 30,416 MW. Most of the projects are proposed on inter-state rivers. Flood control programme in most of the basins and tributary sub-basins are dependent on inter-state cooperation and a spirit of accommodation of interest of the concerned states for larger benefit of the people.

48. Anti-erosion projects include continuous bank revetment with launching apron, closing of breach, raising and strengthening of existing embankments, construction of check bunds, channel cutting, providing boulder and other protection works, bank pitching and other temporary river training works. Detailed proposal for augmenting and improvement of the existing flood management infrastructure (short-term) required for the next 10 years (1997-2007) was prepared after a detailed scrutiny. An ambitious plan for flood control has been submitted by the government of Assam to Asian Development Bank for funding in 2006. Concordance of the visions of “water resources development” implicit in the planning approaches of the various stakeholders agencies. 49. Little organised information is available on implicit water resource development initiatives of allied agencies, e.g., rural development, forestry. Concordance or otherwise of visions of water

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resource development plans of such stakeholder agencies is thus difficult to ascertain. Water resource development plans in the North East have not taken off apparently due to such problem 1) lack of coordination among different departments 2) institutional instability and rampant corruption, 3) weak coordination amongst the N.E. states, 4) lack of priority to water conservation issues and 5) absence of demonstrated successful endeavours. 50. There is no regional consensus about how to confront various water sector issues in a systematic and balanced manner. The stakeholders have diverse proposals and views, some of them conflicting in nature. Convergence of views can entail transparent and mutual dialogue amongst the stakeholders that provides for collective construction of a future scenario for the development of water sector in the region and the guidelines to achieve it. Thus, there is a scope to organize within the framework of water resource development of the N.E. region, an extensive regional dialogue and participatory strategic planning process to produce a common agenda for water resource development in the region and a strategy for sustainable development. An agenda for sustainable and harmonious water resource development recognized by the stakeholders and adopted by the NEC or MoDONER can be a starting point. There is a need for a platform of relationships and coordination mechanisms among governmental and non-governmental stakeholders, which will help prevent duplication of actions and improve nature and output of financial investments. Establishing relationships and dialogue to analyse discrepancies and conflicts and to explore negotiated points of agreements are expected to pave the way for consensus. Issues of trade-off and conflict, requirements for cooperation, and opportunities for synergistic development between multiple projects/plans.

51. Trade off is yet to be a familiar terminology in the water resource sector of the region, but the need is already obvious in the current water related activities. For instance, trade off is necessary between flood and erosion control measures and roadways, railway and navigation sectors. Often, embankments constructed to prevent spilling of flood water result in increased flood peaks and water levels along the rivers. Waterways under the bridges and drainage structures underneath the railways and road embankments, designed not considering peak flows, turn out to be inadequate in due course. Anti erosion measures in the form of spurs, dikes taken up by the state governments to protect specific areas often cause adverse effect to road and railway structures located upstream or downstream. On the other hand, constricted railway or road culverts have become an issue of conflict in recent years, due to their apparent role in water logging and drainage congestion. Recent civil society resistance to large water infrastructures is another case in point where trade off will be essential.

12. Bibliography of technical and engineering knowledge

52. Organised documentation of technical and engineering knowledge on the water resources of Northeast is limited. The Brahmaputra Board has prepared Master Plans in three parts, namely,

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Master Plan Part-I for mainstream of Brahmaputra, Master Plan Part-II for the Barak River and its tributaries and Master Plan Part -III for thirty nine tributaries of Brahmaputra and eight rivers of Tripura for flood management in both the Valleys. The Master Plans envisage storage dams, embankments, anti erosion measures, town protection works and schemes to prevent drainage congestion covering the flood- prone areas in the Northeast. They are the few comprehensive documents with synthesis of available relevant information. Each of the master plan is accompanied by atlas volumes containing maps and drawings of the basin.

Technical challenges of development of water infrastructure in the region

53. The excessive flow in the rivers and recurrence of flood and erosion continue to be an insurmountable problem. The Brahmaputra and Barak and their tributaries and sub-tributaries cause major hazards during the monsoon season each year in the form of flood, bank erosion and drainage congestion. Besides, the fragile physiography of the region, heavy rainfall induced excessive sedimentation, frequent earthquakes, hill/land sliding, deforestation/watershed degradation, inadequate drainage and encroachment of riverine area- all these pose unusual challenge for developing water infrastructure in the region. The problem of the Barak valley too are complex and stem mainly from the river flowing along higher elevation with large areas subjected to inundation and drainage congestion with prolonged high stages of the river.

Impact of climate change on water resources availability and utilization potential

54. Climate change impact on the colossal water and sediment load, (one of the highest in the world) injected from the Brahmaputra-Barak system during the southwest monsoon is phenomenon of critical consequence to the watershed. Strategic watersheds like the Brahmaputra are such that early signs of global climate change would appear earlier in such places of most sensitive nature. The thermal and dynamic influence of the Tibetan Plateau affects the climatic modulation of dissolved and particulate material fluxes through the Brahmaputra and also impacts upon the relationship between spatial distribution of water and ecosystem diversity. However, documented study is hard to find on these aspects. 55. An assessment of the implications of climate change for hydrological regimes and water resources using scenarios developed from Hadley Centre Model Simulations indicates that by the year 2050, the average annual runoff in the river Brahmaputra will decline by 14 %. Studies have indicated that the impact of snow melting in the high Himalayas will lead to enhanced flood disasters in the Himalayan catchments including the Brahmaputra. Singh (1998) suggests that an increase in surface temperatures will lead to a rise in the snowline, increasing the risk of floods in the basin during the wet season, as well as early onset of snowmelt flows. 13. Quality of knowledge and identification of gaps 56. If the current volume of data generally scattered over different organisation is considered, one may have the impression that a reasonable database does exist. Indeed the concerned departments have been carrying out the data collection task quite regularly, though quality control and quality assessment remained a critical issue. There has been a general academic

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concern about the quality of the data. To convincingly refute such concerns, and to establish the scientific validity of the data, it may be a good idea to put the existing database through a mechanism of verification before use. Notwithstanding the quality issue, the fact remains that considering the size and the complexity of the Brahmaputra-Barak system, when compared to similar large river systems of the world, data availability is still grossly inadequate. This is not to say that assessment may not be drawn based upon existing database, but one must exercise adequate caution on using these data sets for applications such as developing numerical models, that may lead to unreliable inferences. 57. Simultaneously there is need for continuing support to strengthen water flow monitoring and assessment and thus to build credible future data sources for the knowledge base. A thorough assessment of water quantity and quality and mid term and long term threats to water availability, utilization, quality, as well as analysis of alternatives that can address any threat, and the development of suitable basin model components to facilitate integrated water quantity and quality analysis will ensure that the knowledge base and the basin modelling package can adequately deal with important management issues. 58. Several issues are rather obvious. There is a strong case for bringing together all the existing database and information source to one place (NEC, Brahmaputra Board, WRD). It is clear that the knowledge base is weak in almost all disciplines, technical and non-technical both in its quality and dimension. A regional but non-uniform database exists; but data characterization remains a problem, rendering comparison of different sources hazardous. Existing mechanism within umbrella organizations needs to be strengthened to address this issue. 59. Field-based work force is a vital source of practical knowledge but they are often inadequately trained and underutilized. Building a knowledge base into an effective tool requires consistent work over large areas and long years. It also requires working relations and data exchange between sector institutions. None are in place at the moment. Data collection staffs are required to work in a coordinated fashion with others working on water resource assessment so that data continues to be relevant to current problems, adequate for the assessments and so that data users can rely on quality of data. Data need to be converted into information and knowledge, which in turn feeds into decision support systems, assisting in addressing priority issues. 60. Some anticipated changes (e.g. climate impact) are not clearly understood. Existing climate-surface-groundwater observation network needs improvement. Divergent procedures hamper accuracy and ability to use available data. Coverage of groundwater quality data needs to be spread out, particularly in the hill states. Environmental issues though are of major concern, is seldom given priority. Water related studies undertaken by research institutions are limited. There is likelihood of inaccuracy in estimation of flood damage and related statistics.

61. Attempt should be made to fill the knowledge gaps through systematic, proactive and participatory process. More integrated science & technology with better forecasting tools are needed to enhance the hydro-meteorological monitoring system integrated with online measurement instrumentation.

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62. Enhancing the knowledge base also calls for integration of traditional knowledge wherever found appropriate, as there is a general belief that several indigenous societies of NE are known for sustainable water management practices. Apart from stakeholders participation in water management issues, sound information systems, better access and exchange, open information policy can help to improve the knowledge gaps. Similarly, enhancing education, communication and participation to facilitate community involvement may contribute to improved planning and management. Hydrological and meteorological information for general water resource management need to be strengthened, besides flood forecasting. 63. Availability of data for evaluation of completed water management projects by experts need to be ensured. Cross sectoral collaboration is a sine qua non for broadening the knowledge base. There is also need for specific studies targeting supply and demand. Model studies for analysis, planning and management of wide range of water resources and environmental problems and wider application of remote sensing and GIS technology for water resource development action plan would augment the scientific data base. Other areas where knowledge base needs to be strengthened are water hazard mapping and groundwater mapping, water harvesting potential assessment, trade-off analysis and potential conflict resolution assessment, and climate change impact study. Any future water resource assessment in the region, apart from taking into account fund requirements for the sector, should also consider the aspects of environmental water requirements, water quality control, and impact of virtual water trade in future as also integrated land and water management for food and environmental security. Last but not the least, long term human resource development and training plan is an important factor in ensuring a quality knowledge base.

14. Conclusion 64. Addressing the vast needs immediately is difficult. However, there are several priority aspects that are essential to bring the current knowledge base to a level of acceptability to start with any meaningful water resource management initiative. Strengthening the water quantity/ quality monitoring and assessment mechanism to consolidate the knowledge base is such an urgent need. Radar alternatives for real time measurement of velocity and depth profiles across streams/ channels along with improved rainfall data set combining rain gauge data with weather radar data is one example. With such real time data, model studies for analysis, planning and management of wide range of water resources and environmental challenges will be possible. As in the case of the Yellow River, once a fully dependable decision support system befitting the complex water resource scenario of the Brahmaputra-Barak system is in place, the creation of a ‘Prototype Brahmaputra’, a ‘Digital Brahmaputra’ followed by a ‘Model Brahmaputra’ can become a reality, paving the way for its optimized management.

65. The extent of people’s dependence on a large river system like the Brahmaputra-Barak has rarely been fully realized to offer appropriate water management efforts. Knowledge of the Brahmaputra-Barak system, considering its strategic location and critical implications, must be improved. How such a large water system will respond to future geo-biophysical changes must be investigated. Gaining scientific knowledge to build sustainable technological responses falling under the consideration of integrated, interdisciplinary efforts that will convincingly link development with societal benefits such as flood hazard mitigation and hydropower development

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is thus overdue. More integrated science & technology and better forecasting tools will enable exploration of potential "win-win" opportunities for sounder water resource management, for example, managing the river to minimize water hazards, and maximize natural resource conservation, watershed protection along with less obvious benefits such as carbon sequestration, simultaneously.

66. Finally, it may not be necessary to manage all the knowledge that one can lay hands on, but to focus only on relevant and critical knowledge that will also help to clearly map the knowledge needs, besides developing clear parameters for assessing the effectiveness of the knowledge base. To conceive and realize a water resource knowledge management system, the concerned agencies will require articulating a knowledge management strategy in clear terms that is in alignment with the broad water resource management strategy. In case of the Brahmaputra-Barak system, this may evolve by weaving together several random repositories to establish a pattern in the form of critical issues involved in implementing a overall water resource management programme, the constituents of required knowledge management architecture, and the interrelationship among different components.

67. Due to the information revolution, what is significantly different today is the ability to manage “knowledge” within one single organization. Knowledge is defined as the “capacity to act”. What is needed at this stage is i) what the water resource organizations of the Northeast know, how they use what they know, and how fast they can know something new, ii) an explicit, disembodied, consistent representation of available knowledge and information; and iii) a systematic and organized attempt to generate new knowledge within an umbrella organization that has the ability to store and use knowledge for improved performance.

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North Eastern Council (2002). Basic Statistics of NER 2002, NEC, Shillong State Development Report (2002) Planning Commission, Government of India, Retrieved from the website: http://planningcommission.nic.in/plans/stateplan/stplsf.htm dated 1st March, 06. Sarma, J.N. (2005) Fluvial process and morphology of the Brahmaputra River in Assam, India, Geomorphology, Vol.70, pp.226-256. Singh, R.B. (1998) Towards promoting PUB monitoring network and predicting erosion vulnerability in the un-gauged basin of the Indian Himalaya using remote sensing and GIS. Retrieved from the website: singhrb@ndf.vsnl.net.in / rbsgeo@hotmail.com, www.cig.ensmp.fr , dated 16th Sept. 05. Smakthin, V.; Revenga, C; Döll, P. (2004). Taking into account environmental water requirements in global-scale water resources assessments. Comprehensive Assessment Research Report No.2. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. Water Resources Department, Government of Assam, (2004). Vision 2020 Report.

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