the value of personal science by seth roberts

8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts

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Outline of Talk

1. What is personal science?

2. Stagnation in health care

3. Three flavors of personal science4. Advantages of personal science

5. Why we need both conventional science &personal science


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Personal Science = usingscience to solve your ownproblems

(science = gather data, drawconclusions)


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Old idea

data + conclusions = magic

New idea

data + conclusions + personalinvolvement = even more magic


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Examples of Personal Science

DATA SOURCE

WHEN Other People Yourself

old Ask friend howwell diet worked Try diet, weighyourself

recent Read researcharticles

Try various foods,measure blood

sugar

new Search Internet forrelated stories

Try differentexercises, measuresleep


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Personal Science

Increasingly PowerfulGaining on conventional science? Non-scientists have more access to scientificjournals

Internet forums, discussion groups, etc.

More possible treatments (e.g. foods) available

Better cheaper software & computers

Better cheaper measurement devices


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Low-carb diet = lots of meat, dairy (Atkins diet)Shangri-La Diet = drink 3.5 T/day flaxseed oil


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What do we learn from this data?

Main conclusions

Low-carb diet works (old idea)

but after 1 yr regain begins (new idea)

Extreme exercise works (old idea)

lost weight takes years to regain after exercisestops (new idea)

Shangri-La Diet works well (new idea) by comparison with other methods (new idea)

Conventional research has never generatedsuch long detailed data


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Restless Legs Syndrome (RLS)

Legs itch or tingle. Extremely annoying. Feelbetter when moved.

Common. 11% of Italians 50-89 years old.

Dennis Mangan, California lab tech. Mom haslife-long RLS. Getting worse.

Finds story on website about RLS cured by

high-dose niacin Mom tries high-dose niacin. RLS disappears.

New idea about RLS. Not mentioned by

authoritative websites (e.g., Mayo Clinic).


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Shared Features ofExamples

Person. Not professional scientist or doctor.Cares a lot.

Method. Try new things he's read about.

Solution. Powerful, safe, nearly free. Missed bymainstream research.

Contribution to human welfare. Can help

millions of people.


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Stagnation in Health Care


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Recently looked up in Google Trends

health care costs: many searches

health care spending: many searches


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health care innovation: "not enough search volumeto show graphs"


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health care stagnation:"not enough search volumeto show graphs"


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Recently looked up in Google Trends:




health care stagnation:"not enough search volumeto show graphs"

Relative number of searches:health care costs= 1, health care spending= 0.05, health careinnovation = 0, health care stagnation = 0.


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Visible problem: High &increasing cost

Invisible problem:Lack ofinnovation

Three signs of stagnation...


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Sign No. 2 of StagnationMain Sources of Death/Disability

Heart disease

Cancer

Depression

Arthritis

Stroke

Diabetes

Obesity


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Sign No. 2 of Stagnation:

Nobel Prize IrrelevanceYEAR PRIZE-WINNING WORK2010 in-vitro fertilization

2009 telomeres

2008 cervical cancer virus, HIV virus

2007 gene modification via stem cells

2006 RNA interference

2005 ulcer-causing bacteria

2004 odor receptors

2003 magnetic resonance imaging


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Sign No. 3 of Stagnation:Old Treatments

Obesity. Mainstream treatments:

Eat less, move more. Common since at least1950s.

Low-fat diet. Introduced 1960s, mass popularitybegan 1980s.

Low-carb diet. Banting diet published 1864.

Depression. Mainstream treatments:

Antidepressants. The first SSRI (Prozac)introduced 1986.

Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Introduced

1960s.


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Why Stagnation? A TheoryTwo Supply Chains

CinnamonFarmer in Sri Lanka ($2/kg)

many people Cook in London ($40/kg)

Health Care

Scientist (price?) many people Sick person (price?)


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Health Care Middlemen

doctors

nurses

psychotherapists

physical therapists

alternative-medicinepractitioners

pharmacists

hospital employees

drug companies

medical devicecompanies

supplementmanufacturers

insurance companies

governmentregulators

medical-schoolprofessors


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Health Care Middlemen

Like everyone else . . .

want more income

strongly oppose less incomeAgainst innovation that reduces their

income. Favor small changes that

increase income. Pressure to oversellsmall changes.


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Two Effects of Middlemen

1. Visible: Push price up.

2. Invisible: Push innovation down

especially innovations that don'tinvolve them. I.e., cause stagnation.

The stronger the middlemen, the larger

these effects. US has both high price& stagnation. Conclusion: Health carestagnation due, at least partly, to

powerful middlemen.


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Three Flavors of Personal Science

1. Engineering (= new devices, new uses ofbasic science). Home glucose monitoring.

2. Scholarship (= study of existing knowledge).

Rediscovery of ketogenic diet for childhoodepilepsy.

3. Basic Science (= discovery of new cause-

effect relationships). My work on weight, sleep,mood, & brain function.

Will stress why personal scientists made thesediscoveries


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Engineering: Home GlucoseMonitoring

Richard Bernstein, engineer with poorly-controlled diabetes

1969: gets machine that only needs one drop of

blood. Intended for hospital emergency rooms.

By trial and error, figured out how to normalizehis blood glucose levels. Health greatly

improved. Med school prof heard him talk about his

results. 1980's: Study with other diabetics.

Became widely accepted. Used by millions.


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Scholarship: Ketogenic Diet forChildhood Epilepsy

Ketogenic diet = high-fat diet.

Developed in 1920s. Stopped being usedduring 1940s when anti-seizure drugs were

developed. Became unknown by most doctors.

Rediscovered in 1990s by Jim Abrahams, amovie producer, whose son's epilepsy notcontrolled by any drug.


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Scholarship: Ketogenic Diet forChildhood Epilepsy

Not easy. But very often effective. Much betterthan surgery.

WHY PERSONAL SCIENCE?

Doctors aren't scholars.

No connection with value system of medicalschool professors.

Payoff for this sort of discovery much larger forparent than any professional.


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Basic Science: The Shangri-La Diet


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Basic Science: The Shangri-La Diet

Solution had three elements: 1. Knowledge ofbasic science. 2. Trial and error. 3. Accident.


Weight-control researchers don't know relevantbasic science (which came from animal learningresearch).

Trial and error unrewarded. Accident required personal involvement


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Basic Science: Better Mood


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Basic Science: Better Mood

Discovery had several elements: 1. Interest inStone-Age approach to health problems. 2.Accident. 3. Trial and error to increase effect.


Mood researchers don't study own mood

Don't do risky research

Far from beaten track sounds "crazy"


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Basic Science: Better Sleep


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Basic Science: Butter & Arithmetic


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Basic Science: Butter and Arithmetic

Elements of discovery: 1. Shangri-La Diet. 2.Experimental-psychology background. 3. Threeaccidents.


Nutrition researchers don't study themselves

don't study mental performance

brainwashed by anti-fat dogma

Psychology professors don't study nutrition


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the value of personal science by seth roberts

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