the utility of the bays eutrophication model in the harbor outfall monitoring program
DESCRIPTION
The Utility of the Bays Eutrophication Model in the Harbor Outfall Monitoring Program. James Fitzpatrick HydroQual, Inc. September 22, 1999. Objectives of Water Quality Modeling. Define Cause and Effect Relationships Define Impacts of Pollutant Sources Assess Required Levels of Control - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
The Utility of the Bays Eutrophication Model in the Harbor Outfall Monitoring Program
James FitzpatrickHydroQual, Inc.
September 22, 1999
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
Objectives of Water Quality Modeling
Define Cause and Effect Relationships
Define Impacts of Pollutant Sources
Assess Required Levels of Control
Evaluate Planning Alternatives for Water Quality Management
Focus Additional Monitoring and Research Needs
Assess Future Water Quality Conditions
InflowOutflow
Light
ConcernsEcologicalEcological NutrientsNutrients Contaminants Organic MaterialOrganic Material Food Chain Community Structure Living Resources
Human Health Contaminants Bacteria Viruses Bioaccumulation
SEDIMENT
Mammals
Infauna
Piscivorous Fish
Zooplankton
PhytoplanktonPhytoplankton
Planktivorous Fish
Epibenthos
Demersal Fish
RegenerationRegeneration
DetritusDetritusParticulateParticulate
MicrobesMicrobes
DissolvedDissolved
WATER COLUMN
Sources RiversRivers BoundaryBoundary Nonpoint EffluentsEffluents
Gas ExchangeExchangeN2, | O2, CO2
ATMOSPHERE
N, P, Si, ON, P, Si, O22, CO, CO22 MicrobesMicrobes
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
BEM Model Formulation
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
BEM Model Chlorophyll Comparison 1992-1994
Solid lines are the modeled response in Chlorophyll in the surface waters
Open circles depict monitoring results
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
BEM Model Particulate Organic Carbon Comparison 1992-1994
Solid lines are the modeled response in POC in the surface waters
Open circles depict monitoring results
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
October 1993
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0.0E+00 1.0E+06 2.0E+06 3.0E+06 4.0E+06 5.0E+06 6.0E+06 7.0E+06
Asterionellopsis Glacialis (cells/L)
C/Ch
la R
atio
BEM Model 1993 Fall Bloom Event
Relationship among carbon, chlorophyll, and cell abundance during the Ocober 1993 Asterionellopsis Glacialis bloom
RegionalPrimary Production1993
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
BEM Model Dissolved Oxygen Comparison 1992-1994
Solid lines are the modeled response in DO in the bottom waters
Closed circles depict monitoring results
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
BEM Model Temperature Comparison 1992-1994
Solid lines are the modeled response in temperature
Closed circles depict bottom water monitoring results
Open circles depict surface water monitoring results
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
BEM Model Salinity Comparison 1992-1993
Solid lines are the modeled response in salinity
Closed circles depict bottom water monitoring results
Open circles depict surface water monitoring results
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
BEM Model DIN Comparison 1992-1994
Solid lines are the modeled DIN response
Open circles depict surface water monitoring results
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
BEM Model Sediment Oxygen Demand 1992-1994
Solid lines are the modeled SOD at selected locations in Massachusetts Bay
Closed circles depict monitoring results
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
BEM Model Mass Balance Capability
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
BEM Model Nitrogen Mass Balance
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
BEM Model Effluent Influence Total Nitrogen - Deer Island
Total N concentration (solid lines) resulting from the boundary condition and effluent discharged from Deer Island and fraction contribution (dashed line) of MWRA effluent at various locations within Massachusetts Bay.
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
BEM Model Effluent Influence Total Nitrogen - Mass Bay Outfall
Projected total nitrogen concentration (solid lines) resulting from the boundary condition and effluent discharged from Deer Island and fraction contribution (dashed line) of MWRA effluent at various locations within Massachusetts Bay.
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
BEM Model Predictive Capability
Distribution chlorophyll in surface waters under two nutrient loading regimes
COL = Current outfall locationFOL = Future outfall location
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
the spatial decrease in phytoplankton biomass in Mass Bay as a function of distance from Boston Harbor
the limitation of the winter/spring diatom bloom in Cape Cod Bay by silica
the limitation of summer primary productivity by DIN the annual cycle of primary productivity in northwest Mass
Bay the annual cycle of DO, with minimum bottom water
concentrations occurring in late September and October
The BEM appears to capture a number of spatial and temporal features of water quality within the Bays during the 1992-1994 time
period, including:
BEM Model Compatibility to Measured Responses
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
The Asterionellopsis glacialis bloom observed in the fall of 1993,• however, estimates of the magnitude of the bloom may be
exaggerated due to low C:Chl-a ratios observed in the A. glacialis
the minimum DO concentrations in the fall of 1994,• however, the model was able to compute minimum DO
concentrations that were approximately 1 mg/L lower in the fall of 1994 as compared to 1992 and 1993
The BEM was not able to fully reproduce two of the unique features of the 1992-1994 data set:
BEM Model Limitations
OMSAP Public MeetingSeptember 1999
BEM is able to reproduce a number of the spatial and temporal features of water quality observed in the 1992-1994 HOM data sets
BEM provides a tool with which to assess the relative importance of various nutrient inputs to the Mass Bays system
BEM provides a tool with which to assess the spatial and temporal effects of outfall relocation and increased nutrient inputs on primary productivity within the Mass Bays system
BEM can also suggest where additional monitoring and field studies need to be performed (e.g., open water boundaries and benthic primary productivity
BEM Model Utility