the user is the destination now

The useris thedestination nowWidgets’ Role in the Eighth Mass Media

David Cushman FasterFuture.Blogspot.com

Hits are worth(-)less in the networked world

Three laws describe how value grows

and is distributedin networks

David Cushman FasterFuture.blogspot.com

Sarnoff’s Law – the red line

• The value of a broadcast network is proportional to the number of viewers/listeners: Eg TV, Radio, Cinema


Metcalfe’s Law: the yellow lineyellow line

• The value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of users of the system (n² growth): Fax machines, telephones, one-to-one communications.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommunications_network

Reed’s Law: the green line

• The value of large networks, particularly social networks, grows exponentially with the size of the network.(2n)Because: The number of possible sub-groups of network participants grows much more rapidly than either the number of participants, ‘N’ (Sarnoff’s Law), or the number of possible pair connections (Metcalfe's law) (N squared)


http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Network

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_network

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe's_law

How does this reveal the value of hits in the

networked world?


Flip the graphs to find the demand curve

…and we discover why the long tail succeeds in the group forming

(Reed’s Law) world of social networks that IS the internet.


Hits take more of the available value

in a broadcast world


Hits worth more in broadcast world

Shaded area shows hits account for a greater proportion of the available demand and total

value in Sarnoff’s broadcast world and in Metcalfe’sMetcalfe’s world of one-to-one

communications.


Hits are still worth having… but

• They have less proportional value compared to the overall economics of the networked world.

• In a broadcast world the hit was where MOST of the value resided

• The opposite is true in a networked world.• Seeking ways to create value in the long

tail therefore offers the bigger opportunity


Caution: Snakes

Long tail is getting longer…

Frightening Fragmentation

Q: How can we reach deep into and along the ever-elongating long tail?

A: Understand how messages/ideas and conversations evolve in the networked world

The internet is for people.

The internet is for people. For people to form groups


Groups with shared purposes

http://flickr.com/photos/joeshlabotnik/


Groups with shared purposesGroups of people that can form at little or no cost

That changes everything

http://flickr.com/photos/stuckincustoms/

http://flickr.com/photos/

http://flickr.com/photos/

Three key disruptions

Who gets to create content? Who gets to distribute content? Who controls the user experience?

Three key disruptionsWho gets to create content?Any and everyoneWho gets to distribute content?Any and everyoneWho controls the user experience?The user is the destination now, they control their ownA-to-anywhere journey

You can’t target every community of purpose

They can

Here’s how

http://flickr.com/photos/caribb/

You can’t target every community of purpose.

They can

Here’s how

THE STAGE

Scale = audience = where the eyeballs have gone

Message broadcast at audience


THE STAGE

But in (social) networks the broadcast message doesn’t arrive


They aren’t looking at The Stage.

They are looking at each other

Scale = lots of communities of purpose = where the eyeballs are focused


•They share messages among their groups.•They adapt them to suit their groups. •They make the message theirs

We share what we think is cool with people who (we think) will think its cool, too


•The groups are not fixed (adhoc).•The message spreads when the groups reform around a new purpose

Users select what they think is cool (has utility) to take with them on their journey


Participants adapt the message

to suit the group they wish to share it with

The people best-placed to adapt the message are in the group, not on the stage


And so it continues; the message evolving to survive. Or it dies out.

We share what we think is cool. That which we co-create, we embrace


They aren’t your groups, they are theirs. They aren’t your messages, they are theirs

Marketing is not done to them, it is done by them


The seven mass medias

• Print• Audio recordings• Cinema• Radio• TV• Internet• Mobile

7th Mass Media1. It’s truly personal2. It’s always on3. It’s always with you4. Has a built-in payment

mechanism5. Allows creation

at the pointof inspiration

The eighth?

• Connects communities of purpose globally• In real time• Beyond all silos• Enables the fulfilment of Reed’s Law

(GFNT)

We are the eighth mass media

• Participatory culture is leading us to the eighth mass media

• It’s not just that we create it in a UGC vs Professional way. I mean:

• WE are the distribution, • WE are the content, • WE are the 'user journey', • WE are how messages are transmitted.• WE are the medium and the media carried by it.

For the journey…

• We are the connections. We are also how the connections are made.

• The eighth mass media is where being pointed at is less important than being taken with.

• Widgets are consumate taken-with enablers.

Perhaps the ninth?

Key lessons for brands 1

http://flickr.com/photos/cleversimon/

Key lessons for brands 2Respond

http://flickr.com/photos/daveyp/

Listen

• The conversations are happening with or without your permission.

• They are happening everywhere people talk

• You can listen: summize.com; brandtags.net, Radion6

• Listen, enable, and serve.

Business case for listening

• 70% of purchase decisions are friend-recommended.

• How much of your current spend is focused on connecting to the conversations?

• How much value do you currently place on these conversations?

• If the answer isn’t 70%, why not?

2. Respond

• Marketing isn’t done to them, it is done by them

• Think less of where the eyeballs are and more about the mouths and ears

• Place value on real-time, human interaction.

Why widgets

• Portable: taken on the user’s journey(portablity is the new point-worthy!)

• Adaptable: The joke can be retold• Adoptable: Users can associate

themselves with brands/bands/orgs/ideas• Low-tech barriers• Rapidly becoming ubiquitous(we’ll come back to how important that is)

Homo Mimicus

Widgets are great enablers of behaviour emulation

Pic: Somargraphics via flickr

Widgets work

• Where they let users adapt them to better suit those they would share them with

Eg Youtube’s many incarnations of the Cadbury’s gorilla ad.

• Where they lower the technical barriersEg Pampers easy-insert of your own kids’

pictures into a Christmas video message.

Widgets require

1. A willingness to relinquish control

2. Toolkits users can play with

3. Creative users

2&3 are in place.Ready for No1?

http://flickr.com/photos/darwinbell/

The networked journey

• Listening to and responding to the network requires and drives cultural change within the brand itself.

• It raises and answers questions about ownership and control to make your brand better adapted to the networked world.

• It is your safe passage to the future

The great disruption has only just begun

Brian Eno 1991

Thanks! Find me at

http://fasterfuture.blogspot.comhttp://twitter.com/davidcushmanhttp://linkedin.com/in/davidcushman

Or just Google: “David Cushman”

Call or text +447736 353590

http://fasterfuture.blogspot.com/

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