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The Upcoming U.S. Elections: theMood of the American People
Bruce StokesDirector, Global Economic Attitudes October, 2018
2
Pew Research Center
• Established 1996
• Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts, foundations
• Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington
• Since 2002, we have surveyed in 108 countries
• www.pewresearch.org
• @pewresearch
THE MOOD OF THE ELECTORATE
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October 18, 2018 4
A sense of victimhood: Even many ‘winners’ feel like they’relosing in politics
Thinking about the way things have been going in politics over the last few yearson issues that matter to you, would you say your side has been … (%)
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 29-Feb. 13, 2018.
October 18, 2018 5
Most continue to say government is run by a few big interests
% who say the government is run …
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 7-14, 2018.
October 18, 2018 6
A sense of alienation from Congress: Most say it is unlikely theirrepresentative would help them address a problem if contactedSuppose you contacted your member of the U.S. House of Representatives with a
problem. How likely do you think it is that they would help you address it? (%)
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 29–Feb. 13, 2018. Congressional district information comes from Gary Jacobson’s databaseof congressional election results.
Partisans Remain Divided Over the 2017 Tax Law
% who __ of the tax law passed by Donald Trump and Congress last year
Note: Don’t know responses not shown.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
46
12
73
41
50
46
36
72
12
49
36
26
Total
Rep/Lean Rep
Dem/Lean Dem
$75,000 or more
$30,000-$74,999
Less than $30,000
Disapprove Approve
Family income
October 18, 2018
There is a Stark Partisan Divide in Americans’ Views ofCooperation with U.S. Allies
% who say the U.S. should take into account the interests of its allies, even if it means making compromises
Note: Don’t know responses not shown.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
4336
65
74
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Rep/Lean Rep Dem/Lean Dem
October 18, 2018
Fewer Americans Believe That Say Other Countries ‘TakeUnfair Advantage’ of U.S. Than in the 1990s
% who say that other countries …
Note: Don’t know responses not shown.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
42
2419
51
7078
Sept 2018Sept 1999July 1994
Generally treat U.S. as fairly as we treat themOften take unfair advantage of the U.S.
October 18, 2018
But a Partisan Divide Has Emerged on Other Nations TakingUnfair Advantage’ of the U.S.
% who say that other countries oten take unfair advantage of the United States
Note: Don’t know responses not shown.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
28
6876 80
7380
Sept 2018Sept 1999July 1994
Dem/Lean Dem Rep/Lean Rep
October 18, 2018
October 18, 2018 11
Democrats Believe the U.S. is Much Less RespectedAbroad, Such Republican Concern is Down
% who say that, compared with the past, the U.S. is ____ by other countries thesedays
Source: Survey conducted Oct. 25-30, 2017.
There is a Profound Disrespect for the Other Party: Large Majoritiesof Democrats and Republicans View Each Other Unfavorably
Democratic attitudes about the Republican Party Republican attitudes about the Democratic Party
October 18, 2018 12
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 7-14, 2018.
THE UPCOMING CONGRESSIONAL MIDTERMS
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October 18, 2018 14
Data and graphics source: FiveThirtyEight
October 18, 2018 15
Voter enthusiasm has risen – especially among Democrats% of registered voters who say they are more
enthusiastic than usual about voting …
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
October 18, 2018 16
Voters are focusedon Supreme Court
% of registered voterssaying each is “veryimportant” to theirvote in 2018 …
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
October 18, 2018 17
Where partypriorities align
% of registered voterssaying each is “veryimportant” to theirvote in 2018 …
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
October 18, 2018 18
Where partypriorities differ
% of registered voterssaying each is “veryimportant” to theirvote in 2018 …
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
October 18, 2018 19
Looking Ahead, Democrats Are Much Less Likely Than in thePast to Want Their Elected Officials to Compromise
% who say they like elected officials who make compromises with people theydisagree with
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 7-14, 2018.
IS THIS ELECTION A REFERENDUM ON DONALD TRUMP?
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In Pew Surveys There Has Been Consistent Disapproval ofPresident Trump’s Job Performance% who __ of the way Trump is handling his job as president
Note: Don’t know responses not shown.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18–24, 2018.
39
32
38
56
63
55Disapprove
Approve
Feb2017
Dec2017
Sept2018
October 18, 2018
Today, There Are Wide Demographic Differencesin Trump Job Approval
% who __ of the way Trump is handling his job as president
Note: Don’t know responses not shown.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
55%
4763
4784
71
605654
51
38%
4630
476
21
2738
4145
Total
MenWomen
WhiteBlack
Hispanic
Ages 18-2930-4950-64
65+
ApproveDisapprove
October 18, 2018
Such Disapproval is Highly Partisan% who __ of the way Trump is handling his job as president
67%62
5053
148
26
9085
95
2740
5571
28%34
3940
7987
63
711
4
6752
4122
PostgradCollege grad
Some collegeHS or less
Rep/Lean RepConservMod/Lib
Dem/Lean DemCons/Mod
Liberal
White evang ProtWhite mainline Prot
CatholicUnaffiliated
ApproveDisapprove
Note: Don’t know responses not shown.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
October 18, 2018
In the latest Pewsurvey, Trump gets low
marks fortemperament, trust;
but most say he standsup for his beliefs
October 18, 2018 24
% who say each describes Trump ...
Note: Don’t know responses not shown.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
Republicans Give Trump Very Positive Ratings on Traits –Except Temperament% who say each describes Trump …
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
October 18, 2018
Impressions of Trump as “Competent” Lags Behind OtherPresidents in Midterm Years
% who say each describes president …
Able to get things done Strong Leader
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
50
44
55
43
40
Trump Sept '18
Obama July '14
Obama June '10
Bush Aug '06
Clinton July '94
43
47
53
43
Trump Sept '18
Obama July '14
Obama June '10
Bush Aug '06
Clinton July '94
nothing
October 18, 2018
And Impressions of Trump as “Trustworthy” Lag Well BehindOther Presidents in Midterm Years
% who say each describes president …
Trustworthy Cares about people like me
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
34
51
58
41
46
Trump Sept '18
Obama July '14
Obama June '10
Bush Aug '06
Clinton July '94
36
54
60
41
Trump Sept '18
Obama July '14
Obama June '10
Bush Aug '06
Clinton July '94
nothing
October 18, 2018
Impressions of Trump as “Well Informed” Also Lag WellBehind Other Presidents in Midterm Years
% who say each describes president …
Well informed
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
38
67
46
58
Trump Sept '18
Obama July '14
Obama June '10
Bush Aug '06
Clinton July '94
N/A
October 18, 2018
October 18, 2018 29
And The American Public is Divided Over Whether Trump HasRespect for America’s Democratic Institutions, Traditions% who say Donald Trump has ___ respect for this country’s democratic
institutions and traditions
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 7-14, 2018.
October 18, 2018 30
So, are the Congressional midterms a referendum onTrump?
Do you think of your vote for Congress as a vote FOR the president, AGAINSTthe president or isn’t the president much of a factor in your vote? (%)
Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.
October 18, 2018 31
All Pew Research Center reports areavailable online at www.pewresearch.orgBruce StokesDirector, Global Economic Attitudes@bruceestokes