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The Transition towards Zero Emission Power Generation - Technology Implications
Nick OtterDirector of Technology and External Affairs, ALSTOM Power Ltd
and Chairman of UK Advanced Power Generation Technology Forum
United Nations Economic and Social CouncilCommittee on Sustainable Energy
Coal in Sustainable Development MeetingGeneva
7/December/2004
UNECE Zero Emission Power OTTER Geneva 7Dec04 2
A BIT OF A SCENE SET FROM AN INDUSTRY POINT OF VIEW
SOME VIEWS ON A CARBON ABATEMENT STRATEGY FOR FOSSIL FUELS - THE TRANSITION ISSUE
AN ILLUSTRATION ON HOW SUCH A STRATEGY IS BEING IMPLEMENTED IN INDUSTRY……….using some ALSTOM activities as an example
Contents of Presentation
UNECE Zero Emission Power OTTER Geneva 7Dec04 3
Energy Equipment/SystemsSupply Company
- ALSTOM Power : world-wide supplier of powergeneration plant, components and services
Viewpoint
Advanced Power Generation Sector- UK Advanced Power Generation Technology
Forum (APGTF) - European Industry : EPPSA/ EUnitedTurbines
EC Networks - Thematic network on CO2NET, CAME-GT, POWERCLEAN- Representative of European industry and researchers- EU-25 wide PowerClean
www.apgtf-uk.com
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AN OVERALL PERSPECTIVE
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Near Term Global Position
Significant impact of increased liberalisation, de-regulation and privatisation
3
020406080
100120140160180200220
53 58 63 68 73 78 83 88 93 98 03eOrder Year
Ann
ual O
rder
s [G
W/a
2 major growth cycles in the past led by NAM. Chinese boom in 2003?
Sources: BD/MI, RDI Newgen May 2003- GT & ST >= 3 MW , & Hydro >=10 & Diesel >= 1 MW- before 1974: data poor & excluding diesel.Hydro estimated from UDI- orders at risk of cancellation included
NAM
LAM
ChinaAsia
MEAEurope
50 Years Market DevelopmentOrder Volumes by Regions
Post WW IIeconomic
development
Oil crisisLiberalization &emerging Asia
US merchantsemerge
Market Intelligence / Market / MK 516 JN/10 12 2003
Future growth - importance of
developing countries
- upsurge in China and Asia
UNECE Zero Emission Power OTTER Geneva 7Dec04 6
Long Term Energy Market
Different needs world-wide- uneven access to modern energy
Growth of Renewable Energy but ….
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
GW
Gas Coal Hydro Other renewables Oil Nuclear Fuel cells
AfricaE. AsiaChinaPacificEuropeNorth America
Middle East
Transition economies
South Asia
Latin America
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
$ bi
llion
(200
0 do
llars
)
IEA projections of global power station
build to 2030
Capacity
Investment
IEA World Energy Outlook 2003
Continuing reliance on fossil fuels– especially likes of China and India
Reinforced by IEA WEO 2004
UNECE Zero Emission Power OTTER Geneva 7Dec04 7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
OthersHydroNuclearConventional SteamGas Plant (GT & CC)
Age ofPower Plant
Source: UDI, BD/MI
GW 1054 GW >= 30 Years
1%
30%
3%
61%
5%Tot. Installed 2002 : 3791 GW
GW Volume of plants reaching 40 years of age, by year:
Average 35 GW / a
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
LAMMEAChinaAsiaNorth America
Europe
Installed Base Capacity -Aging Fleet
• Over 1/4 of world-wide capacity is more than 30 years old
….. a lot in the developed world
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Power rationing threatens UK industry
Security of Supply
THE SUNDAY TIMES 24/August/03
Increasing concerns regarding supplyIncreasing concerns regarding supplyincreasing concerns regarding supplyincreasing concerns regarding supply
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Environment
– Short term : Kyoto 2008-12 proving hard to meet?
Guardian Dec03
Environmental Implications
importance of environment as a driverimportance of environment as a driver
1Oct04
– Tighter regulation : EC Large CombustionPlant Directive
– Impact of Emission Trading : launch Jan/05
– Boost from Russian approval
UNECE Zero Emission Power OTTER Geneva 7Dec04 10
1,9-58,3
-55,4-50,4
-28,7-27,4
-23,4-20,9
-7,4-6,3-6,1
-1,91,7
3,54,2
6,66,8
11,511,8
12,916,3
21,124,8
30,4
1,4
17,010,9
8,6
-1,4
- 70 - 60 - 50 - 40 - 30 - 20 - 10 0 + 10 + 20 + 30 + 40
EU-15Latvia
LithuaniaEstoniaPoland
HungarySlovakia
Czech RepublicUnited Kingdom
GermanySwedenFrance
LuxembourgSlovenia
NetherlandsBelgiumFinlandGreece
DenmarkItaly
AustriaIreland
PortugalSpain
Percentage points below (-) or above (+) linear target path
DTI 2002 DTI 2002 with use of Kyoto mechanisms
Environmental Implications
Kyoto Burden Share andEU-25 Trade under EU
Emissions Trading Scheme
Effectively a zero net gain in COEffectively a zero net gain in CO22 reduction for EUreduction for EU--2525
Courtesy of EC
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Environment– Longer term : 60% GHG reductions by 2050?
Environmental Implications
importance of environment as a driverimportance of environment as a driver
– Importanceof engagingEmergingMarket Economies?
0
1 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
3 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
5 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
7 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
9 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0
Mt o
f CO
2
E u ro p e a n U n io n E U & A c c e s s io n C o u n t rie sU S A B ra z i lIn d ia C h in aJa p a n
Forecasted CO2 IncreasesSource: EC/EEA, 2004
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All measures will be required– different solutions in different parts of the world
No one single winning technology– complementary actions
Broad portfolio approach necessary– energy efficiency, REN, fossil, nuclear
Development of energy technology will be essential
Clean use of fossil fuels : a critical transition for decades yet in getting to a
sustainable energy future
`Helicopter` Viewpoint
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STRATEGY FOR CLEAN FOSSIL FUELS
A full Carbon Abatement Technology approach
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Strategic Trajectories
CarbonReduction
Time
`IncreasedEfficiency`Trajectory
`Zero Emissions`Trajectory
Near-term Mid-term Long-term
High efficiency combined with `Capture ready` concept?
Value of CO2?Geography?
Flexible strategy to cover uncertain future
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Carbon Management Strategy for Fossil Fuels
Must be developed with the following in mind– Long term time frame : out to 2030 and beyond– Technology needs to be `in-tune` with market to engage investors– Needs of different markets and countries
Must embrace non-technical issues as well as
technical
Research and Technology
Validation of Technology
CO2 Protocol, Legal, Health, Safety, Perception,..
2010 2020 2030LighthouseProjects
Non technicalissues
Technology
Increasing complexity in-tune with market development
Must contain the overall approach of– Increased efficiency, fuel flexibility and re-powering– Near-zero emission with CO2 capture and storage– Link to Hydrogen issues or long term sustainable `vision`
Must include aspects of– Research and technology development– Component and system validation– Demonstration/`Lighthouse` Projects– Deployment mechanism
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Clean Fossil Fuel Technologies firmly established as key component of carbon reduction strategy
– 18% reduction in Carbon Intensity by 2012, backed by RTD and D initiatives in fossil fuels
– Clean Coal Plant Improvement programme : 2b US$ over next decade– `Futuregen` Project launched with 1b US$, 80% from USDOE : electricity
and hydrogen plant with CO2 sequestration – CO2 Capture and Storage budget for 2004 requested at ~50m US$ from a
`zero` position less than 5 years ago with US regional networks established
“Snap Shot” of US Position
Strong competition from USA on world marketsStrong competition from USA on world markets
US Co-operative Initiatives- Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum [CSLF] : started
in June/03 involving now 16 countries plus EC- complementary to International Partnership for an
Hydrogen Economy [IPHE]
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European Countries– Germany : new
COORETEC action addressing fossil fuels
“Snap shot” of European Position
Increasingly strong EU interest in Carbon AbatementIncreasingly strong EU interest in Carbon Abatement
European Commission/EU– EC Framework 6 (2003-2006) Theme of “CO2 Capture and Storage associated with Clean Power Generation from Fossil Fuels”
………importantly FP7 now being addressed
2010 2020 2030 .... 2050 TimeM
id-te
rmLo
ng-te
rm
decentralized
VisionCombined
C+H Economy
Pressurized Conceptsη = 55%
Good Economics
Gasification Concepts with CO2 Capture
η > 50%
Fuel Cell with Micro Gas Turbine
STC η = 50%GTCC η = 65%
Shor
t-ter
m STC η = 55%GTCC η = 70%
Priority CO2 Capture
Priority Economics
centralized
Power PlantClose to
Zero Emissions
– UK : CAT strategy for fossil fuels planned forearly 2005
– Other Member Statesaddressing CAT issues
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• Some other Country Actions outside Europe- Australia : CO2 Capture and Storage TRM, COAL21- Canada : Canadian Clean Power Coalition, Coal TRM
• Other relevant International Initiatives- IEA : GHG RTD and Clean Coal Centre- IEA : Working party on Fossil Fuels- CCP : Carbon Capture Project of `Oil Majors`; continuation phase into most likely cost-effective capture technologies
Other Country Actions
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• Some other Country Actions outside Europe- Australia : CO2 Capture and Storage TRM, COAL21- Canada : Canadian Clean Power Coalition, Coal TRM
• Other relevant International Initiatives- IEA : GHG RTD and Clean Coal Centre- IEA : Working party on Fossil Fuels- CCP : Carbon Capture Project of `Oil Majors`; continuation phase into most likely cost-effective capture technologies
Other Country Actions
Backed by new Australian Energy fund ~500m A$ launched in Jun/04 out to 2020
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CO2 Protocol and related issues
Part of an overall strategic framework addressing clean fossil fuels as a key element of a sustainable energy portfolio
Improve EfficiencyZero Emission including CO2
Capture
Transport and storage
of CO2
Fuels Cells
Use of CO2eg EOR
Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Initiatives
Clean Fossil Fuel
InitiativesHydrogen
IPHECSLF
International Strategic Fit
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AN INDUSTRY TECHNOLOGY POSITION
What is happening in industry?
An illustration of some of ALSTOM Power activities
• efficiency improvements
• fuel switch/retrofitting/repowering
• zero emission
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50 %32 %
12 %
16 %41 %76 %
34 %27 %12 %
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1 2 3
O & M costs
Fuel costs
Capital costs
Natural gas CC Coal-fired Nuclear
100 %Cost ofelectricity
Coal: Balanced cost structureNatural Gas: Dependence on the fuel priceNuclear: High capital costs share
Structure of the Cost of Electricity
Cost Remains Important
001 750p Source: VGB 4/2001, p. 27 -31
Different situations exist
in different countries
UNECE Zero Emission Power OTTER Geneva 7Dec04 23
CCT CO2 Mitigation
100% coal
◄ Thermie Ultimo
◄ Thermie SR
◄ Average Europe
◄ Reference plant
10% biomass
20% biomass
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Net efficiency (lhv, %)
CO
2 em
issi
on (g
/kW
h)
% biomass on LHV
Impact of Efficiency Improvement on CO2 Reduction
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Retrofit Technology
Figure 8Test results of earlier retrofit to modernise 660MWunits (HHH sister units at Hinkley, Hartlepool and
H h )
Sustained increase in plant output/efficiency improvement
UNECE Zero Emission Power OTTER Geneva 7Dec04 25
Brown Coal firedSupercritical Boilers
011 454p
± 0,0 m
+ 161,5 m
PS Schwarze Pumpe 2 x 800 MW
+ 167,5 m
± 0,0 m- 6,5 m
PS Niederaußem 1,000 MW
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Plant Efficiency Development
001 758p
η Net
(NCV)
50
45
40
351970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
EC AD700
Shidongkou PRC 600 MWHemweg 8 NL 680 MWMeri Pori FIN 590 MWStaudinger/Rostock D 550 MWAmer 9 NL 650 MWEsbjerg DK 417 MWMai Liao TW 600 MWSchwarze Pumpe D 800 MWNiederaussem D 1,000 MWLippendorf D 930 MW
Shidongkou PRC 600 MWHemweg 8 NL 680 MWMeri Pori FIN 590 MWStaudinger/Rostock D 550 MWAmer 9 NL 650 MWEsbjerg DK 417 MWMai Liao TW 600 MWSchwarze Pumpe D 800 MWNiederaussem D 1,000 MWLippendorf D 930 MW
Double RHDouble RHAvedoere DK475 MWAvedoere DK475 MW
Skærbæk DKNordjylland DK413 MW
Skærbæk DKNordjylland DK413 MW
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Gas Turbine Technology
Gas Turbine will be a key prime mover for 21st Century
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CO2 Capture Options
• “Tail-end” CO2 captureadsorption/stripping processusing MEA, physical absorbents, ….
• Oxygen combustioninternal (membrane) or external(ASU) oxygen supply
• Novel/Pre-combustionIGCC based systemscarbonate capturechemical looping
Towards Zero Emissions at the right price
CirculatingFluidized Bed Boiler
O2
EOR
CO2N2
Air
Fuel• Pet. Coke• Coal• Biomass
Recirculation
Steam
Steam
CO2 cycle gasout
Flue Gasfromgas
turbine
CO2 depletedflue gas toheat recovery unit
CO2 cycle gasin
CO2 ab-/desorbingcoating
Heatinsulatingmaterial
Rotorcorematerial Element structure
UNECE Zero Emission Power OTTER Geneva 7Dec04 29
Environmental Control
Low risk & proven key technologies & products
Largest installed base in air pollution control:– Over 60,000 MW in FGD (Flue Gas Desulferization)
– Over 28,000 MW in SCR (Selective Catalytic Reduction)
– Over 168,000 MW in Particulate Control
Active RTD programmes in all areas
Not just Carbon Dioxide - also SOx, NOx, Particulates …….
UNECE Zero Emission Power OTTER Geneva 7Dec04 30
Some Concluding Remarks
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`Uncertainty and Change` will continue– difficult to forecast future; no one single winning technology;
broad balanced portfolio approach– fossil fuels will continue to play a major role for decades yet– clean use of fossil will be a key transitional issue– impact of a real value for CO2 - Emission Trading/Tax
implications; market could change dramatically
Final Concluding Thoughts
2005 - a Year of Opportunity– UK will have leadership of G8 and the EU– real chance to influence on the European and world arena– importance of Global Climate Change– engagement of Emerging Market Economies
Innovation and continued technology development will be Innovation and continued technology development will be essential to meet complex demands of the futureessential to meet complex demands of the future
www.alstom.com