the transition to electric bikes in china baq 2006, dec 14 jonathan weinert, inst. of transp....
TRANSCRIPT
The Transition to Electric Bikes in China
BAQ 2006, Dec 14Jonathan Weinert, Inst. of Transp. Studies UC-Davis
Ma Zedan, Tsinghua University
Christopher Cherry, UC-Berkeley
History and Key Factors for Rapid Growth
Outline
1. E-bike Background2. History3. Key Factors
• Technical• Economic• Political• Other
4. Conclusions
Motivation:
1. Successful & FAST adoption of a new transportation technology due to air quality concerns
2. Apply lessons to: 1. Other technologies2. Other countries
Methodology
– Existing Literature– Interviews:
• 23 e-bike companies, 4 factory visits, 5 dealers, 12 users, 1 gov’t rep.
– Surveys• 1,000 e-bike users in Shanghai, Kunming, and
Shijiazhuang (Weinert, Ma, Yang, Cherry 2006, Cherry and Cervero, 2006)
E Bike Background
Insert pix
E-bike Background
• Definition: 2-wheeled vehicle (2WV) propelled by electricity and (sometimes) human power.
Bicycle-style: Scooter Style:
Voltage Power Range Efficiency
36-48 V 240-350 W 30-70 km 1.2-1.5 kWh/100km
E-bike Growth in China
Jamerson, F. and Benjamin, E., 2004 Electric Bicycle World Report, 7th Edition with 2005 update, 2005
Figure 2: Production of E-Bicycles and Cars for the Domestic Market in China
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Pro
du
cti
on
(u
nit
)
.
E-bikes
All Autos
Personal Cars
E-bike Pros and Cons
Pros Cons“0” tail-pipe emissions
75% Coal electricity production1
Energy efficient, charged during off-peak
Lead-emissions from production and recycling
Cheap Safety (quiet, fast, inadequate brakes)
1. Cherry, Weinert, Ma (2006)
History
1. Phase 1: (1980s)• Technology sub-par
2. Phase 2: (early 90s)• Technology better, but not as good as
incumbent
3. Phase 3: (late 90s-present• Technology “competitive” with incumbent• Incumbent crippled by regulation (The
Harding Effect)• Other factors
E-bike Industry
1998: 10 companies
2005: 498 registered (1,000-5,000 unofficial)
Why?: mature, simple technology, weak IP enforcement
Size: 10- 200,000 bikes/year Profit margin: 6%
The Key Factors
Key Factor 1: Technology
Batteries Type: • Valve-regulated lead-acid
– Replaced liquid electrolyte batteries
Motor Type: • Brushless motors
– Longer life, lower maintenance, more power
How has e-bike technology improved?
1997-1998 2006
Manufacturer guaranteed battery lifetime (months)
3 12
Anticipated battery life (months) 7-8 18-24
Battery energy density (Wh/kg) 30 40
Motor efficiency 50% (1995) 85%
E-bike price (USD) ~$300 $125-375
Weinert, Ma, Cherry (2006)
Key Factor 2: Economics
1. Economics
Compact car (gasoline)
Annual Cost (USD/yr)
69 92 160 290 290 770
Fuel economy 0.021 kWh/km
0.015 kWh/km
0.036 L/km
0.04 L/km
0.08 L/km
FuelPrice
($/unit)0.083 /kWh
0.25/trip 0.41/L 0.56/L 0.56/L
Fuel Economy 15Wh/km 29 km/l 27 km/l 12.5km/l
Km / yr 2,600 3,000 4,000 4,300 4,300 10,000
Compact car
Economic/Market Factors
• 2002-06: Gasoline prices rose by 45%(Shanghai)
China National Statistics Report (2005)
1997 2004 % change
Annual Disposable Income of Urban Households / capita (USD)
645 1,178 82%
% of household expenditures on Transportation and Communications
5.2% 11.8% 127%
Key Factor 3: Policy Factors
1. Gasoline scooters bans: – 1994 Tianijn
– 1996 Shanghai
– 1998 Guangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Suzhou
2. National E-bike standards (‘99)– The “pedal” loophole: create uniform specs for BSEB
and SSEB– Other loopholes (speed, weight, power)
3. Nat’l Road Transportation Safety Law (‘04)– Gave e-bikers right to use bike lane– Gave e-bike industry more confidence
E-bikes: a Tale of Two Cities
• Beijing: – 2002, issued e-bike ban effective 06– 2006, amidst strong oppostion, reversed
decisions– Strictly enforces standards, SSEBs < 5%
• Shanghai– Loosely enforced standards, SSEBs >70%– Banned gasoline scooters 1998
E-bikes growth compared to other 2WVs (Shanghai)
1. Kang, 2004
0
100
200
300
400
500
2002 2003 2004
Moto
rize
d t
wo-w
heele
rs (
1,0
00
s)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Bic
ylc
es
(1,0
00
s)
E-bikesGasoline scooterLPG scootersBikes
How have regional policy differences affected e-bike sales?
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Chengdu Shanghai Shijiazhuang Beijing
% m
ode s
hare
% e-bike
% bike
% MotorScooter
Gov’t Attitude
Pro e-bike Pro e-bike & LPG scooter
Neutral Anti e-bike
Factor X ? ?
Factor Y ? ?
4. Other Factors
• Liberalization of the housing market (started in mid-1990s)
• SARS: early 2003
• Abnormally high summer heat wave (2003)– Why did sales spike
Conclusions
• Technology – Battery life, energy density, motor efficiency
• Macro-economics– Incomes rose, share spent commuting rose
• Industry: – Low barriers to entry, more entrants, falling costs
• National and Local policies– Product standards --> loopholes (SSEB)– Road space
So What Was It?…
– The technology– The market – Or the policy
• Or the timely confluence of all three???
Acknowledgements
Research Supported by: • ITS-Davis (Dr. Joan Ogden & Dan Sperling)• Hong Kong Fok Ying Tung (Huo Ying Dong)
Education Foundation, Project No. 94027• ITS-Berkeley Center for Future Urban
Transport-A Volvo Center of Excellence
• Presentation available at www.jonathanweinert.com/presentations