The Transition to a Life Beyond Oil Peak Oil, Climate Change and Transition Towns

Oil dependency

Oil currently accountsfor about• 43% of the world’s

total fuel consumption

• 95% of global energy used for transportation.

Oil is used for ……Oil is used for ……

……. almost everything. almost everything

Food production

•95% of our food products require the use of oil, and the supply of food accounts for 21% of Britain’s energy use•3.5 litres of oil is needed to produce half a kilogram of steak Guardian 7th April 2007

 

Natural Resources

• RENEWABLE RESOURCES:

FARMING – FISHERIES – FORESTRY

SUSTAINABLE IF RESPONSIBLY MANAGED

RENEWAL TIME: YEARS TO DECADES

• NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES:

COAL – OIL – GAS ……..

STRICTLY FINITE, HOWEVER MANAGED

RENEWAL TIME: MILLIONS OF YEARS

What is Peak Oil?

Two typical oil fields

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Forties field UK sector North Sea

Prudhoe Bay, Alaska

Oil production for four countries

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Peak to Peak - 27 years

Peaked in 1999

World discovery peaked 40 years ago

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Production

When is the global oil peak?

World Production StallsWorld Supply

85.3 mb / day in 2006

85.2 mb/day to Oct 2007

World Demand

85.9 mb/day in 2007 projected to increase to 88 mb/day in 2008Source: International Energy Agency

Oct 2007

Prices rise

Oil producers (98)

Post peak oil producers (64)

Why is oil so important?

How many men does it take to push a car?

•A tank of petrol contains 8,000 human hours work!

•If you worked for 24 hrs/day, 52 weeks a year, 7 days a week that equates to about 4 years’ work.

•(If you imagine pushing a car 250 miles into a hurricane – at 70mph it would take a year for teams of 4 people to be constantly pushing the car to do the same work as one tank full)

•95% of our transport is fuelled by oil. There is no replacement that is as convenient, high density, and safe.

Gas is also a non-renewable resource

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Polar Oil

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Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil

“Humanity is approaching an unprecedented crisis when not enough oil and gas will be produced to keep industrial civilisation running...”

The opening paragraph of the Independent’s Environment Correspondent Geoffrey Lean on the IEA Report(The Independent July 10th 07)

Common Symptoms Include

•Clammy Palms / Nausea/ Mild Palpitations

•Denial

•A Sense of Bewilderment and Unreality

•An Irrational Grasping at Unfeasible Solutions

•Fear

•Outbreaks of Nihilism / Survivalism.

•Exuberant Optimism.

•“I Always Told You So” Syndrome.

Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil Awareness(Post-petroleum stress disorder)

CO2 levels over the past 60000 years

The need for an urgent response

Energy & Resource UseEnergy & Resource UsePopulation

Pollution Pollution

ClimaxClimaxClimax

Techno-Fantasy

Green-Tech StabilityGreenGreen--Tech StabilityTech Stability

Earthstewardship

Atlantis

Great Grand Great Grand ChildrenChildren

AgricultureAgriculture10.000yrs BP10.000yrs BP

Industrial Industrial RevolutionRevolution

Baby BoomBaby Boom Old GrowthOld GrowthForest Forest

Pre-industrial sustainable culture

Pre-industrial sustainable culture

Historical Time Future Time

Vehicle Transport – are we asking the right questions?

Running the UK’s cars, buses and lorries on biodiesel needs 25.9 million hectares of arable land.

UK has 5.7 million hectares of arable land.

800 million malnourished people in the world.

From: Monbiot, G. (2006) Heat. How to Stop the Planet Burning. Penguin.

Hydrogen?

Running the UK’s cars on hydrogen would necessitate;

• 67 Sizewell B nuclear power stations• a solar array covering every inch of Norfolk

and Derbyshire combined• or a wind farm bigger than the entire

southwest region of England.From “The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan

Relocalisation

“…localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative”

David Fleming

Responses to Peak Oil & Climate Change

P O + C C =

Systems Re-think

• Planned Relocalisation

• Energy Descent Pathways

• Local Resilience

CLIMATE CHANGE

• Climate engineering

• Carbon capture and storage

• International emissions trading

• Climate adaptation

• Nuclear power

PEAK OIL

The need for an urgent response

• Burn everything!relaxed drilling

regulationsbiofuelstar sands and

non-conventional oils

• Resource nationalism

• Resource Wars

1930’s Visions of the Future

We need to address our collective inability to vision the future we actually want….

One possible vision……

What might peak oil look like?

Food - Urban Gardens in CubaDowntown HavanaDowntown Havana

The Modernized Agrarian - Cuba

Rooftop Gardening

Your Town in 2012?

Edible roofs Tree crops

The 4 Recognitions of the Transition The 4 Recognitions of the Transition Movement.Movement.

1.1. Life with less energy is inevitable and it is better to plan Life with less energy is inevitable and it is better to plan for it than be taken by surprisefor it than be taken by surprise

2.2. We have lost the resilience to be able to cope with We have lost the resilience to be able to cope with energy shocksenergy shocks

3.3. We have to act for ourselves and we have to act nowWe have to act for ourselves and we have to act now

4.4. By unleashing the collective genius of the community By unleashing the collective genius of the community we can design ways of living that are more enriching, we can design ways of living that are more enriching, satisfying and connected than the present.satisfying and connected than the present.

The 12 Steps of Transition

Step 1:Step 1:Form a Steering Group and Form a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Design Its Demise from the

Outset.Outset.

Step 2: Raising awareness – talks and films

Step 3: Engaging with existing groups –

Collaborate where possibleCo-operation, not competition.

•Working with BusinessWorking with BusinessOil Vulnerability Analysis.Oil Vulnerability Analysis.

•Working with Local Working with Local Landowners Landowners

Step 4.Step 4.The Official UnleashingThe Official Unleashing

“Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”. Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

Step 5:Step 5:Form Working GroupsForm Working Groups..

Up and Running in Up and Running in TotnesTotnes

Arts / Food / Energy / Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and of change / Medicine and Health /Health /

HousingHousing

In formation;In formation;Education, Youth, Transport. Education, Youth, Transport.

Step 6:Step 6:Use Open Space Technology.Use Open Space Technology.

Step 7:Step 7:Develop Visible Manifestations of the Develop Visible Manifestations of the

Project.Project.

“Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007.

The Totnes Local Food Directory.

The Totnes PoundThe Totnes Pound

Transition TalesTransition Tales

Step 8:Step 8:Facilitate the Great ReskillingFacilitate the Great Reskilling

Skilling Up for Skilling Up for Powerdown.Powerdown.Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning…

Using You Tube to Communicate Transition Town ideas.

Great Re-skilling CoursesGreat Re-skilling Courses

Wild Foods, natural Wild Foods, natural building, seed saving, building, seed saving, hand made paints, hand made paints, stove building, forest stove building, forest gardening, food gardening, food growing, bread growing, bread making...making...

Step 9:Step 9:Build a Bridge to Local GovernmentBuild a Bridge to Local Government

World Cafe on Peak Oil and Climate Change with Local Councillors

Contributions to Local Development Framework.

Step 10:Step 10:Honour the EldersHonour the Elders

Step 11:Step 11:Let It Go Where It Wants to Go.Let It Go Where It Wants to Go.

• Solar Water Heater Challenge.Solar Water Heater Challenge.• The Totnes Renewable Energy The Totnes Renewable Energy

Supply Company (TRESCO)Supply Company (TRESCO)• Lending Library.Lending Library.• NISP workshopsNISP workshops• Car Share ClubCar Share Club• TTT International Youth TTT International Youth

Music Festival. Music Festival.

Step 12:Step 12:Create an Energy Descent Action Create an Energy Descent Action

Plan.Plan. Start with a vision and then Start with a vision and then

backcastbackcast

Incorporate Transition TalesIncorporate Transition Tales

Base it on current planning Base it on current planning documents.documents.

The Bro Ddyfi Energy Descent Action Plan 2008 – 2023?

?

Bro Ddyfi 2023

‘Most great adventure stories share the same basic plot: a

community faces a threat to its survival and the story is of how

the characters respond.’ (Chris Johnstone, 2006)

Thank you - Diolch yn fawrTrawsnewid Bro Ddyfi Transition

www.transitionculture.orgtransitiondyfi@yahoo.com