The strange death of Labour England

Using the information on p.34 of the 2015 Annual Update, explain why there is a 74% chance that Labour will be the dominant partner in a coalition government after May 7th 2015? Be specific in your explanation, using correct key terms and supporting your answer with evidence.

Learning objectives

• To explain how the Labour Party has evolved in the modern period• To evaluate the prospects of a Labour

victory at the next General Election

Lecture at the LSE• The Economy• Date: Wednesday 18 March

Time: 18:30 – 20:00Venue: London School of Economics & Political ScienceSpeakers: John Van Reenen, Jonathan Wadsworth, Alan ManningChair: Oriana Bandiara

• The Conservatives and Labour have marked out apparently different positions for themselves in relation to the economy and deficit reduction. The Conservatives want to eradicate the deficit and then run a budget surplus, while Labour want to deliver a slower reduction to the deficit, but with less pressure on public expenditure. The longer-term strength of the UK economy is still unknown, particularly in the light of continuing uncertainty affecting the Eurozone, financial institutions and oil prices. The options facing the new government are limited by the continuing weakness of the public finances. This event will examine the future of the UK economy and possible policy change.

How has Labour changed?

Use the information on pp.78-83 in the textbook and pp.52-59 in the Update to complete this table

‘Old’ Labour New Labour Miliband Labour

Leader(s)

Policies

Party organisation

Old Labour

Trade union ideas and interests dominated the early history of the Labour Party. Labour “emerged from the bowels of the trade union movement” (E Bevin).

Clause Four – original basis of the party (1918)Public ownership of key industries (Nationalisation)Government intervention in the economyRedistribution of wealthIncreased rights for workers“Cradle-to-grave” welfare provisionState education and healthcare. (1948 NHS)Raise taxes to pay for public servicesMaintained close relationship with trade unions

Attlee 1945-51

Wilson 1964-70

New Labour• Working class (C2/D) proportion of the

electorate had become smaller and more fragmented along ethnic and gender lines. Could no longer win elections by depending on the vote of white, male, manual labourers.

• Now needed to appeal to ‘Middle England’ – an electoral necessity. Emphasis on ‘cohesion’, ‘solidarity’, ‘community’ , ‘fairness’

• ‘Third Way’ thinking emphasised mixed economy with progressive social policy

• Blair amended Clause Four in 1995.• ‘One person one vote’ for trade unions –

rather than previous block voting. • Symbolic – change of logo (1983) from

manual worker’s tools to red rose.

The ‘Third Way’• Equality for all – equality of opportunity• Community ‘we achieve more together than we do alone’• Break away from Old Labour – did not raise taxes to pay for

public services. • Public/private mix. Rejects public ownership.• Equal and mutual respect for freedom for all.

• Some important implementations• National minimum wage • Devolution• Human Rights Act.

Gordon Brown – What went wrong?

• New Labour leader with strong ‘old’ Labour credentials: “We are at our best when we are ‘Labour’.”

• Famously tense/competitive relationship with Blair • Emphasised high levels of investment in public services but limited

reform of service delivery—strategy undone by the Great Crash of 2008

• Unable to match Blair’s easy charisma or media-savvy; not a ‘telegenic’ PM

Post 2010 – Miliband – ‘One Nation’

• Miliband has publically criticised the policies/ideology of New Labour and suggests that the party needs to attract traditional labour voters alienated by Blair.

• Argues for further government involvement in the economy.

• Plans for new taxes for higher paid workers, an assault on the City, and new trade union rights for employees

‘Predistribution’, Inequality is tackled not through redistributing money to the poor by taxing the rich and providing benefits, but through fairer, more equal wages so that welfare services are less needed.

The opinion polls suggest Ed Miliband is the least popular British opposition leader on record — albeit at a time when all mainstream politicians are unpopular. In November 2010, in the first flush of his Labour leadership, he had an approval rating of +20; four years later it had sunk as low as 55 in a YouGov poll.New Labour figures like Lord Mandelson, Alan Milburn and Lord (John) Hutton — cabinet ministers in the Blair era — complain that Miliband has crafted a narrow policy prospectus aimed at winning 35 per cent of the vote — just about enough for a Labour victory — which might appeal to the poor and disadvantaged but which has little appeal to the voters of middle Britain. Miliband disagrees with the idea that he held his party together after its 2010 defeat by failing to take it out of its comfort zone, arguing he has reformed Labour’s relations with the unions, toughened the party’s stance on immigration and made it clear that the party would have to cut public spending in most areas. “This is an economy which isn’t working for most people. I totally reject the idea that somehow this is about a narrow section of the electorate — quite the contrary.” The polls are so unremittingly grim for Miliband personally that it is easy to forget that his party is still in contention to win the election. Indeed, the Labour leader is convinced he will become Britain’s prime minister in three months’ time. He knows he is facing a torrid time at the hands of the Tory-supporting press but insists he is ready for it. “If we were miles behind in the opinion polls they wouldn’t be doing it,” he says. “It’s because they fear I’m going to win.”

Financial Times, February 6, 2015

QuestionsExplain the term policy prospectus as used in the passage. (5 marks)

Using your own knowledge as well as the article, consider why Labour is likely to be the largest party in Parliament after May 7th. (10 marks)

How has Labour changed?

Use the information on pp.78-83 in the textbook and pp.52-59 in the Update to complete this table. Pay close attention to changes to the National Conference and the Policy Forum.

‘Old’ Labour New Labour Miliband Labour

Leader(s)

Policies

Party organisation

Plenary

What is the biggest single change in Labour Party organisation and/or policy over the past three decades?

• Politics • Democracy • Pluralism • Electorate • Political apathy • Turnout • Party system • Party competition • ‘Catch-all’ parties • Ideology