the story behind the 2010 percentage pass in south africa
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The Story behind the 2010 Percentage Pass in South
Africa
Dr Muavia Gallie
1999 + 12 years Ave.Comparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010
450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000
1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000
Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12
1999Ave.
2000 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010
450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000
1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000
Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12
2000Ave.
2001 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010
450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000
1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000
Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12
2001Ave.
2002 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010
450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000
1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000
Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12
2002Ave.
2003 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010
450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000
1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000
Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12
2003Ave.
2004 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010
450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000
1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000
Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12
2004Ave.
2005 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010
450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000
1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000
Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12
2005Ave.
2006 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010
450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000
1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000
Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12
2006Ave.
2007 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010
450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000
1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000
Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12
2007Ave.
2008 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010
450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000
1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000
Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12
2008Ave.
2009 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010
450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000
1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000
Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12
2009Ave.
2010 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010
450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000
1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000
Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12
2010Ave.
Ave % Drop in Learners Gr 1 to Gr12
% Drop in Learner from one grade to next
-11%
0% 1%-3% -3% -4%
5%
-5%
5%
-19%
-32%-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Grade 1to 2Grade 2 to 3Grade 3 to 4Grade 4 to 5Grade 5 to 6Grade 6 to 7Grade 7 to 8Grade 8 to 9Grade 9 to 10Grade 10 to 11Grade 11 to 12
% Drop in Learner from one grade to next
-11%
0% 1%
-3% -3% -4%
5%
-5%
5%
-19%
-32%-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Grade 1to 2 Grade 2 to 3 Grade 3 to 4 Grade 4 to 5 Grade 5 to 6 Grade 6 to 7 Grade 7 to 8 Grade 8 to 9 Grade 9 to 10Grade 10 to 11Grade 11 to 12
Grade 1to 2
Grade 2 to 3
Grade 3 to 4
Grade 4 to 5
Grade 5 to 6
Grade 6 to 7
Grade 7 to 8
Grade 8 to 9
Grade 9 to 10
Grade 10 to 11
Grade 11 to 12
%L Drop 0% -10.8% -0.3% 0.7% -3.2% -3.5% -4.4% 4.7% -5.3% 5.3% -18.7% -32.3%
1999-2010 + AveComparing Grades 1-12 from 1999 to 2010
450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000
1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000
Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10Grade 11Grade 12
199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010Ave.
Matrics 2010 started Gr1 in 1999
Drop in Learners Gr 1 (1999) - Gr12 (2010)
1,318,932
579,384550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000
1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000
Grade 1 Grade 12
Only 44% left!