The Statistics Netherlands Business Cycle Tracer

a graphical approach to business cycle analysis

OECD-ISTAT conference on Dynamic graphics for statistical indcators

Floris van Ruth

Department of business cycle statistics

Division of Macro-economic statistics and publications

Statistics Netherlands

Two important questions in reporting on short-term economic developments:

Question 1: How is the economy doing?

Traditional approach:

Question 2: An economic indicator is down 1.1%. What does this mean?

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

Consumption

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

2003

M01

2003

M04

2003

M07

2003

M10

2004

M01

2004

M04

2004

M07

2004

M10

2005

M01

2005

M04

2005

M07

2005

M10

2006

M01

2006

M04

2006

M07

2006

M10

Private fixed capital formation

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

2000

M01

2000

M04

2000

M07

2000

M10

2001

M01

2001

M04

2001

M07

2001

M10

2002

M01

2002

M04

2002

M07

2002

M10

2003

M01

2003

M04

2003

M07

2003

M10

What did we want?

• Interpretation at a glance

• Visualization of the state of the economy

• Broad and robust characterization of the development of the economy and of individual indicators

• Allow visual analysis relationships between the main macro-economic indicators

Graphical format – the business cycle tracer

Cycle – medium term (filtered) development

Above trend

Below trend

Increasing

Decreasing

Important added value: interactive elements

• Business cycle analysis is dynamic –time control function

• Analyse development single economic indicator or in context using relevant other indicators – selection possibilities

The final product