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The Statistics Netherlands Business Cycle Tracer
a graphical approach to business cycle analysis
OECD-ISTAT conference on Dynamic graphics for statistical indcators
Floris van Ruth
Department of business cycle statistics
Division of Macro-economic statistics and publications
Statistics Netherlands
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Two important questions in reporting on short-term economic developments:
Question 1: How is the economy doing?
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Traditional approach:
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Question 2: An economic indicator is down 1.1%. What does this mean?
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
Consumption
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
2003
M01
2003
M04
2003
M07
2003
M10
2004
M01
2004
M04
2004
M07
2004
M10
2005
M01
2005
M04
2005
M07
2005
M10
2006
M01
2006
M04
2006
M07
2006
M10
Private fixed capital formation
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
2000
M01
2000
M04
2000
M07
2000
M10
2001
M01
2001
M04
2001
M07
2001
M10
2002
M01
2002
M04
2002
M07
2002
M10
2003
M01
2003
M04
2003
M07
2003
M10
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What did we want?
• Interpretation at a glance
• Visualization of the state of the economy
• Broad and robust characterization of the development of the economy and of individual indicators
• Allow visual analysis relationships between the main macro-economic indicators
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Graphical format – the business cycle tracer
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Cycle – medium term (filtered) development
Above trend
Below trend
Increasing
Decreasing
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Important added value: interactive elements
• Business cycle analysis is dynamic –time control function
• Analyse development single economic indicator or in context using relevant other indicators – selection possibilities
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The final product
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