THE 1977 DISTINGUISHED LECTURESHIP IN MATERIALS AND SOCIETY

The Shape of Things Past and to Come

SIR MONTY FINNISTON, FRS

The historical development of metallurgy and of engineering materials establishes the importance of culture and economy on the guidance of progress and change. There is no indication of revolutionary scientific changes in our understanding and hence con- trol of metals in the near future, but significant alteration of industrial metallurgical procedures must occur as required by political considerations and availability of raw m a t e r i a l s including fuels .

W O gain the dist inct ion of a Dis t inguished Lec turer of the ASM-TMS/AIME c a r r i e s with it the p e r s o n a l and natural sa t i s fac t ion a s s o c i a t e d with f la t tery and honor; but the f o r m e r is not wholly uplifting and the latter has its d e p r e s s i n g aspect , s ince was it not the late Dag H a m m a r s k j o l d who wrote " T i m e goes by; reputation i n c r e a s e s but abil i ty d e c l i n e s . " At my age s ince dist inct ion can only be based on the r e c o r d of the past, one should not there fore expect or ig inal i ty in the present and only a l imited extrapolat ion into the future.

My subject "The Shape of Things Pas t and to C o m e " is a nosta lg ic v iew of my exper i ence as a meta l lurg i s t ,

who pract iced the d isc ip l ine pro fe s s iona l ly for just over thirty y e a r s but has been out of that part icular battle front though in the war of industry for s o m e ten y e a r s m o r e . My thes i s is to draw what l e s s o n s can be drawn f rom my past as they affect the present and those features of the present as may affect the future. I do not intend there fore to confuse you or m y s e l f with detai led descr ip t ions of the prac t i ce s and p r o c e s s e s of modern meta l lurg ica l industr ies or with the c o m p l i c a - t ions of sol id state phys ic s , part icular ly in i ts theoret i - cal and m a the m a t i c a l abstract ions; nor do I propose ex- pounding on that modern t i m e - w a s t e r - e c o n o m i c fore - c a s t s of the future of the m e t a l s i n d u s t r i e s - s i n c e as

SIR MONTY FINNISTON, FRS (who was made a Knight Bachelor in the New Year Honours List 1975) is a Director of Sears Holdings Limited and Executive Chairman of Sears Engineering Limited. With a First Class Hon- ours Degree in Metallurgy (University of Strathclyde-formerly the Royal College of Science and Technology, Glasgow), and a Ph.D, he started his scientific career as a LeCturer at the Royal College of Science and Technology. He then served for a short period at Stewarts and Lloyds Steel Company, and then as Chief Research Officer with the Scottish Coke Research Committee. During the Second World War, he was with the Royal Naval Scientific Service and in 1946 was sec- onded to the Ministry of Supply at Chalk River, Canada. He returned to the United Kingdom to become Chief Metallurgist at the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, Harwell where he was a pioneer in the development of nuclear power. In 1959 he joined C. A. Parsons Company taking over Managing Director- ship of their Nuclear Research Centre which in 1962 became International Re- search & Development Company, the largest sponsored research organization in the United Kingdom. With this company Sir Monty acquired and successfully completed many extramural research contracts from within the United Kindgom and the United States, the most advanced of which were plobably the magneto- hydrodynamic generator of electric power and the development of a motor based on superconductivity. He also at this time served as Chairman of companies con- nected with cryogenics and systems computers. He took over Chairmanship of International Research & Development Company in 1968, resigning in 1977.

In 1967 (on its formation) he was appointed Deputy Chairman of the nation-

alized British Steel Corporation, in 1971 adding to his Deputy Chairmanship the duties of Chief Executive. In 1973 the United Kingdom Government appointed him Chairman of this nationalized industry for a period of three years.

A Fellow of the Royal Society of London and of the Royal Society of Edin- burgh, he has been awarded nine Honorary Doctorates mainly for his distinguished services to several major industrial organizations and for his contribution to their technological development, and a number of Honorary Fellowships from institutes of learning. He is an Honorary Member of the American Iron and Steel Institute, the Iron and Steel Institute of Japan and the Indian Institute of Metals. He is a Bessemer Medallist; Tawara Gold Medallist (Japan); Eichner Medal.list, et al. He is a past President of The Metals Society (1974-75), of the Institution of Metallur- gists (1975-70, and of the Iron and Steel Institute (1969-73).

He is currently Chairman of Policy Studies Institute;serves on the Board of GKN Limited and Cluff Oil Limited;is Chairman of Council of the Scottish Busi- ness School; President of Institute of Management Services; Pro-Chancellor of University of Snrrey; Chancellor of University of Stirling; and Chairman of a United Kingdom Goverment Committee of Inquiry into the engineering profession.

Sir Monty is a renowned accepted speaker on metallurgical scientific and industrial matters and has various publications or recognized notable material and distinguished lectures to his credit. He is Editor of The Metallurgy of the Rarer Metals Progress in Nuclear Energy Series, Progress in Nuclear Energy (Metallurgy and Fuels), and the Commonwealth Library of Text Books in Metallurgy.

ISSN 0360-213317810911-1177500.75/0 �9 1978 AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR METALS AND

THE METALLURGICAL SOCIETY OF AIME M E T A L L U R G I C A L TRANSACTIONS A VOLUME 9A, SEPTEMBER i 9 7 8 - 1 1 7 7

Winston Church i l l r e m a r k e d " A l w a y s avoid p r o p h e s y - ing beforehand; i t is a much b e t t e r po l icy to p r o p h e s y a f t e r the event has a l r e a d y taken p l a c e . "

THE EXPANDING SCENE FROM THE PAST

P r o g r e s s in c iv i l i zed soc i e ty has been d e t e r m i n e d m o r e by the s t a tus of i t s m a t e r i a l s t a n d a r d s of l iv ing than by i t s cu l tu re or i t s m o r a l p r o g r e s s (whatever f o r m s these l a t t e r may take or have taken) . The h i s t o ry of m e t a l s can be t r a c e d to 8000 B.C. and is t h e r e f o r e o lde r than mos t c iv i l i z ing ac t i v i t i e s of man. If c iv i l i z a t i on had been dependent on cont inuing r e f i n e - men t s of i t s e a r l i e s t d e v e l o p m e n t - t h e fo rmin g and use of na tu r a l l y o c c u r r i n g a r t e f a c t s l ike f l in t s tone or m e t a l s found in t h e i r e l e m e n t a l s t a t e - o r if it had r e - l ied upon the s u c c e s s o r invention, po t t e ry , the deve lop- ment of c iv i l i zed s o c i e t i e s would indeed have been l imi t ed . The p r o g r e s s of man, however , is r e c o r d e d in the deve lop ing and expanding use of m e t a l s f rom the e a r l i e s t known p r o d u c e d - g o l d , s i l v e r , copper , tin, l ead and z inc and the p r i n c i p a l a l loys of b ronze and b r a s s - to be fol lowed by i ron and s t ee l , a luminum and mag- nes ium and in th is l a s t gene ra t ion the burgeon ing l i s t of s p e c i a l i s t m a t e r i a l s , u ran ium, tho r ium, p lu tonium, z i r c o n i u m and b e r y l l i u m , the s emiconduc t ing m a t e - r i a l s , s i l i con and ge rman ium, which b o r d e r on the me ta l l i c , and those f inding the i r fu ture s lo t , t i t an ium, n ickel , c h r o m i u m , molybdenum, n iobium, t an ta lum and so on. The a c c o u t r e m e n t s of mode rn s o c i e t y - the f ixed s t r u c t u r e s of bu i ld ings and work p l aces , the mobi le s t r u c t u r e s of land, sea , a i r and space t r a n s - por t , the m a c h i n e r y and cap i t a l equipment of i ndus t ry and d o m e s t i c a p p l i a n c e s - w o u l d not be with us without m e t a l s .

To take p r i d e in m e t a l l u r g i c a l p r o g r e s s is not, how- eve r , to d e c r y deve lopmen t s in nonmeta l l i c m a t e r i a l s in suppor t of p r o g r e s s . T h e r e has been a comp le - m e n t a r y d i v e r s i t y and growth in m a t e r i a l s d e r i v i n g f rom deve lopmen t s in the f ie ld of inorgan ic c h e m i s t r y (in which c e r a m i c s and conc re t e might be c l a ime d as of p r i m a r y m e t a l l u r g i c a l i n t e r e s t ) and in o rgan ic c h e m i s t r y with syn the t i c s ( r ep l ac ing n a t u r a l f i be r s ) and p l a s t i c s . But a l though the r e l a t i v e r a t e s of growth of these nonmeta l l i c a r e a s in th is e a r l y induct ion p e r i o d of t he i r h i s t o r y may be f a s t e r than m e t a l s now, the inf luence of these newer nonmeta l l i c m a t e r i a l s has not been to r educe the momen tum of growth of the m e t a l i n d u s t r i e s . As F ig . 1 shows 1 the now e s t a b - l i shed m e t a l i n d u s t r i e s have shown a c o n s i d e r a b l e and sus t a ined growth ( m e a s u r e d in tonnage) s ince the be - ginning of th is cen tury and th is wi l l continue into the i m m e d i a t e fu ture , p a r t i c u l a r l y as deve lop ing c o u n t r i e s i mprove t h e i r m a t e r i a l lot .

L I T T L E BY LITTLE FROM NOW ON

What f e a t u r e s of the m e t a l i n d u s t r i e s s t r i k e one at th is r e m o v e f r o m an educat ion in m e t a l l u r g y in the e a r l y 1930's ? Outs tanding is the p r o l i f e r a t i o n ( c e r - t a in ly s ince the end of W o r l d War II) of m e t a l s which a r e now being p roduced and used on a c o m m e r c i a l s c a l e , m e t a l s which were e i t he r c u r i o s i t i e s at the s t a r t of the cen tury or even jus t s y m b o l s in the P e r i o d i c Tab l e . At the tu rn of the l a s t cen tury , the m e t a l s of p a s t and p r e s e n t c iv i l i z a t i ons (and a l loys

(Millions of Tons per Annum)

1900 0.08 0,871 0.479 0.499 27.69 0.0078 0.0003 0,0057 (1915)

1925 0.149 1.510 1.135 1.395 89.05 0.025 0.007 0.181

1950 0.187 1-850 2.060 3.187 186.39 0.149 0.0365 1.507

1975 0.222 4.005 5.483 8.369 650.17 0.70 0.276 12.693

Ratio 1975 2.75 4.5 11.4 17 23 92 920 2230 1900

Fig . 1 - - G r o w t h in use of c o m m o n m e t a l s f r o m 1900 to 1975.

b a s e d on them) could be counted for i n d u s t r i a l pu r - p o s e s on the f inge r s of one hand; i ron, copper , tin, l ead and z inc were the b a s i c m a t e r i a l s a va i l ab l e . But jus t the pa s t t h i r t y to fo r ty y e a r s has seen the deve lop- ment of n u c l e a r e n e r g y with i ts demand for s p e c i a l m e t a l s , the e l e c t r o n i c s i ndus t ry with i ts r e q u i r e m e n t for s e m i c o n d u c t o r s , the power i ndus t ry needs to be met with b a s e m a t e r i a l s such as n ickel , molybdenum and t i t an ium, space to be s a t i s f i e d with i ts s p e c i a l needs and such s p e c i a l pu rpose m a t e r i a l s , as l iquid m e t a l coo lan t s , too l s and so on p rov ided as needed; and t h e r e have been p a r a l l e l moves independent of i m m e d i a t e m a r k e t demands to f ind new m a t e r i a l s which m a r k e d l y extend the convent ional , e.g. m a t e r i - a l s for s u p e r - c o n d u c t i n g o r s u p e r - p l a s t i c app l i ca t i ons .

The P e r i o d i c Tab le , however , l im i t s expec ta t ions of any fu r the r add i t iona l new me ta l l i c b a s e s to be de - ve loped for any pu rpose , a l though i m p r o v i n g add i t ions to the por t fo l io of i n d u s t r i a l l y ava i l ab l e m e t a l b a s e s by a l loy ing and p h y s i c a l t r e a t m e n t s a r e s t i l l r e l a - t ive ly unbounded. No m a t t e r what publ ic r e l a t i o n s s p o k e s m e n may say in the i n t e r e s t s of c o m m e r c i a l explo i ta t ion , a s p r o f e s s i o n a l s nobody b e l i e v e s that any wonder m e t a l is now with u s - m u c h l e s s round the c o r n e r . M e t a l l u r g i s t s a r e suf f ic ien t ly knowledgeable today to know that me ta l s as a c l a s s have p r e d i c t a b l e g e n e r a l i z e d p r o p e r t i e s and to r e a l i z e that the p roduc t s of the i r e x p e r t i s e have the i r l im i t a t i ons as wel l as t he i r advan tages . M e t a l l u r g y today is conce rned now with enhancing these bene f i c i a l p r o p e r t i e s and min i - miz ing the de f i c i enc i e s to mee t in p r a c t i c e s p e c i f i c a - t ion by c u s t o m e r s . Methods for ach iev ing th is g e n e r a l ob jec t ive a r e methods which have been know s ince m e t a l l u r g y was a b lack ar t ; for bulk p r o p e r t i e s they a r e a l loy ing and what might be ca l l ed i ts c o u n t e r - p a r t - d e - a l l o y i n g (for the r e m o v a l of spec i f i c i m p u r i t i e s in c e r t a i n condi t ions have s ign i f ican t effect) , p h y s i c a l t r e a t m e n t s inc luding hot and cold work ing and heat t r e a t m e n t , a l l of which r e l a t e to con t ro l of s t r u c t u r e . Sur face t r e a t m e n t s too have the i r s c i e nc e and a r t . M e t a l l u r g i s t s have a l so ex tended the use fu lnes s of t h e i r p roduc t s by combining the s p e c i a l p r o p e r t i e s of the nonmeta l l i c m a t e r i a l s with m e t a l s in some fo rm, e .g . through coa t ings , i n c o r p o r a t i o n (as in f e r r o c o n - c r e t e ) or in c o m p o s i t e s . Since m e t a l l u r g y made some f a l t e r i n g steigs to engage in s c i e nc e and i t s hand- ma iden e x p e r i m e n t , r a t h e r than a r t and i t s s e r v a n t t r i a l and e r r o r , t hese p r a c t i c e s have t h e m s e l v e s been i m p r o v e d upon through unders tand ing , but that p r a g - m a t i s m in deve lopmen t is s t i l l n e c e s s a r y is a m e a s u r e of the c omple x i t y of the sub jec t and our ignorance .

l 1 7 8 - V O L U M E 9 A , SEPTEMBER 1978 METALLURGICAL TRANSACTIONS A

THE STATE OF METALLURGICAL PROCESSING

Although the pa s t few decades have seen c o n s i d e r a b l e add i t ions to the a r m o r y of m e t a l s and a l l oys , i t would be d i f f icul t to l i s t half a dozen r a d i c a l l y new deve lop- men t s in the c h e m i c a l p r o c e s s i n g of me ta l s or in the e s t a b l i s h e d p r o c e s s e s for shaping t h e m - cas t ing , r o l l i n g (hot o r cold) e x t r u s i o n and powder m e t a l l u r g y . The use of oxygen to enhance c h e m i c a l r e a c t i v i t y in the r e f in ing of i ron to s t e e l (and de l im i t pol lu t ion by n i t rogen) would r a n k high as would at the o ther ex- t r e m e vacuum m e t a l l u r g y (and to a much l e s s e r ex- tent the use of i ne r t gas b lanke t s ) in the p r o c e s s i n g of c h e m i c a l l y r e a c t i v e m a t e r i a l s ; and as an advance in f ab r i ca t i on technology continuous ca s t i ng has c e r t a i n l y had impac t , p a r t i c u l a r l y for the p roduc t ion of m a t e r - i a l s in bulk demand .

T h e s e ' s t a n d a r d ' p r o c e s s methods a r e not of cour se as they w e r e . They have been modi f i ed with t i m e in the d i r e c t i o n of c l o s e r con t ro l whether th is be of y ie ld , d imens ions or p r o p e r t i e s . Th is con t ro l has been e x e r - c i s ed p r i n c i p a l l y through con t ro l of s t r u c t u r e , th rough mechan iza t ion , i n s t rumen ta t i on and au tomat ion , through r educ ing the human l abor content of p roduc t ion and the p h y s i c a l ca l l s upon that l abor and in subs t i tu t ing sc i en t i f i c and eng inee r ing sk i l l for c r a f t . P e r h a p s no m o r e s t a r t l i n g c o n t r a s t e p i t o m i z e s t h e s e changes than c o m p a r i s o n of the hand mi l l of the e a r l y p a r t of the cen tu ry (Fig . 2) and the con t ro l r o o m of the con- t inuous mi l l of today (Fig . 3). M e t a l l u r g i c a l p r o c e s s - ing has advanced by becoming b igge r , b e t t e r and f a s t e r r a t h e r than newer and d i f fe ren t . Continuous p r o c e s s - ing ( including continuous cas t ing) has not e l i m i n a t e d the ba tch p r o c e s s ; the to t a l ly so l id rou te has not sub- s t i tu t ed for the l iquid m e t a l rou te (d i r ec t ly r e d u c e d p e l l e t s a r e s t i l l m e l t e d fo r f in ish ing opera t ions ) ; oxide r educ t ion where e s t a b l i s h e d has not been r e p l a c e d by ha l ide m e t a l l u r g y nor have e l e c t r o l y t i c t echniques ove r t aken the b l a s t fu rnace , c o n v e r t e r o r ki ln . Yet, t hese d r e a m s of change were be ing sought f if ty y e a r s a g o - a n d a r e s t i l l be ing s t r i v e n fo r .

Who knows a l l that is going on in r e s e a r c h l a b o r a - t o r i e s i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y ? But if one t r i e s to p r o j e c t the fu ture by ex t r apo l a t i on f rom the scene today, it would s e e m unl ike ly that t h e r e wi l l be any r evo lu t ion in m e t a l - l u r g i c a l p r o c e s s or f a b r i c a t i o n p r a c t i c e s over the next

Fig. 3--Control room of continuous mill.

decade or two. The b a s i c p r i n c i p l e s and p r o c e s s e s by which m e t a l s a r e p roduced f rom the i r o r e s a p p r o p r i a t e to t h e i r t h e r m o d y n a m i c s t and ing and f a b r i c a t e d ap- p r o p r i a t e l y in r e l a t i o n to t he i r p h y s i c a l p r o p e r t i e s , s e e m to be se t . T h e r e would a p p e a r to be no r a d i c a l innovat ion in m e t a l l u r g i c a l p r o c e s s i n g in sight; a l - though r h e o c a s t i n g o r l iquid s u p e r - c o o l i n g may find s t r i c t l y l imi t ed app l i ca t ions in due c o u r s e . And if ex i s t i ng p r o c e s s e s a r e to be s ign i f i can t ly upse t , the i n d u s t r i a l impac t cannot be fel t for ten to f i f teen y e a r s - a n d p robab ly longer . New inves tmen t in the a r e a of p r o c e s s i n g and f a b r i c a t i o n is l ike ly to be in the e s t a b l i s h e d t echn iques . To some extent this g ives a s e n s e of s t ab i l i t y to the m e t a l i ndus t r i e s s ince it i s un l ike ly that the i ndus t ry (one cannot excep t the ind iv idua l company) wi l l be caught out in r e p e t i t i o n of p a s t m i s t a k e s in an o v e r s i g h t of new t e c h n o l o g y - l i k e inves t ing in o p e n - h e a r t h fu rnaces when the b a s i c oxy- gen s y s t e m has been invented.

T h e r e wi l l of cou r se be changes in e m p h a s i s and i m p r o v e m e n t s in the de t a i l of mechan ica l , c h e m i c a l and con t ro l a r e a s of p lant design; t h e r e can be no doubt that p r o c e s s and on - l i ne con t ro l s wi l l a s s u m e g r e a t e r impor t ance as the demand for longer l ife and g r e a t e r c e r t a i n t y of p e r f o r m a n c e by the consuming indus t r i e s wi l l r e f l e c t in i n c r e a s i n g and improv ing p r o c e d u r e s for inspec t ion . Such con t ro l s a r e a l r e a d y to be noted in the c o n s i d e r a b l e advances in the use of s p e c t r o s c o p y for a n a l y s i s , t e m p e r a t u r e m e a s u r e m e n t du r ing p r o c e s s i n g , X - r a d i o g r a p h y , u l t r a s o n i c s , mag- net ic c r a c k de t ec t ion and eddy c u r r e n t s . The s e a r c h fo r new s e n s o r s and i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n for a n a l y t i c a l and nondes t ruc t i ve t e s t i ng wil l continue and extend th is concept of p r o c e s s con t ro l . Combined with the deve lopmen t of m i c r o p r o c e s s o r s loca l or s y s t e m s in- t e g r a t e d , th is can only l ead to g r e a t e r conf idence by the o p e r a t o r in cons i s t en t and economic p r o c e s s i n g .

Fig. 2--Hand mill in tin plate manufacture.

THE STATE OF THE SCIENTIFIC ART

But what do we know today about m e t a l s that we did not know fifty y e a r s ago ? With the p a s s a g e of t ime have we p r o g r e s s e d beyond the f o l k - l o r e of the a r t or m e r e l y added to i t ? My r e c o l l e c t i o n of n e a r l y fif ty y e a r s ago i s that m e t a l l u r g y was in the s a m e s t a t e as eng inee r ing is today . Th i s condi t ion has been ex- ce l l en t ly d e s c r i b e d by H e r b e r t Simon in his K a r l Compton L e c t u r e in 1968. 2 " A s p r o f e s s i o n a l schoo ls a r e m o r e and m o r e a b s o r b e d into the g e n e r a l cu l tu re

METALLURGICAL TRANSACTIONSA VOLUME 9A.SEPTEMBER 1978 1179

of the un ive r s i t y , they hanker a f t e r a c a d e m i c r e s p e c - t ab i l i t y . In the pas t much of what we know about de- s ign and about the a r t i f i c i a l s c i e n c e s was in t e l l ec tua l ly soft , in tui t ive , i n f o r m a l and cook-booky . In t e r m s of the p r e v a i l i n g n o r m s , a c a d e m i c r e s p e c t a b i l i t y ca l l s for sub jec t m a t t e r that is i n t e l l ec tua l ly tough, a n a l y - t ic , f o r e s e e a b l e and t e a c h a b l e . " F o r " d e s i g n and the a r t i f i c i a l s c i e n c e s " r e a d " m e t a l l u r g y . "

The e a r l i e s t text books that I r e c o l l e c t a r e those which we re conce rned with long d e s c r i p t i o n s of the m e t a l l u r g i c a l p r o c e s s e s and p r a c t i c e s of the t i m e . T h e r e were s i m p l e c h e m i c a l equat ions of the type Fe203 + 3C = 2Fe + 3CO to i l l u s t r a t e the p r i n c i p l e of the r educ t ion p r o c e s s e s , d e s c r i p t i v e r e f e r e n c e s to s l ag m e t a l r e a c t i o n s but l i t t le (if any) s c i en t i f i c ex- p lana t ion even qua l i t a t i ve ly much l e s s t h e r m o d y n a m i c unde r s t and ing e i the r of equ i l i b r i um or r e a c t i o n r a t e s . On p r a c t i c e i t se l f , much teach ing was conce rned with how to l ine an o p e n - h e a r t h fu rnace with de t a i l ed a n a l y s i s of b r i c k s i z e s , b r i c k shapes and b r i c k pos i - t ion; how to wie ld a shove l to fe t t le a furnace; how to f i r e fu rnaces , the d i spos i t i on of b u r n e r s and how to damp fu rnaces down; how to make r o l l changes in quick t ime , and long t ab le s of the t r a d e n a m e s of b r i c k s , deoxidants and a l l oys . Th i s is not to s ay that many of these a r e not of c o n s i d e r a b l e impor tance ; in r e a l i t y they a r e . Books , b r o c h u r e s and pamph le t s f r o m i n d u s t r i a l compan ie s on the m e r i t s of t he i r p roduc t s if couched in m o r e mode rn j a r g o n a r e s t i l l a round as s u c c e s s o r s to those text books of the 1920 's . But they a r e not now taught to p r o f e s s i o n a l m e t a l l u r g i s t s ; they a r e i n s t r u c t i v e and for r e f e r e n c e for the t echnic ian , c r a f t or eng inee r ing s k i l l s employed in the m e t a l in- d u s t r i e s .

Of cou r se , in those days , s c i en t i f i c and t e chn i ca l j o u r n a l s a l so abounded (although s ince mul t ip l i ed by s e v e r a l f a c t o r s ) . The a r t i c l e s , however , were main ly conce rned with accounts of the ef fec ts of a l loy ing and hea t t r e a t m e n t on the p r o p e r t i e s of m e t a l b a s e s d e t e r - mined by s i m p l e t e s t s , t ens i l e , hot h a r d n e s s and im- pact; a t ten t ion was pa id to the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of phase d i a g r a m s , the t r e a t m e n t s which could be dev i sed f rom the s tudy of such d i a g r a m s and p a r t i c u l a r l y the a t t r a c - t ions of deve lop ing and expla in ing m i c r o s t r u c t u r e s - dend r i t i c , p e a r l i t i c , m a r t e n s i t i c , Widmans t a t t e n p r e - c ip i t a t ion h a r d e n i n g - a n d r e c r y s t a l l i z a t i o n . And of cou r se inc lus ion counting and iden t i f i ca t ion was a ma- j o r i n t e r e s t . But i t a l l s e e m e d incoheren t , s e p a r a t e d f o r m s of knowledge with no g e n e r a l i z e d t h e o r i e s to p lace phenomena in p e r s p e c t i v e o r to account for them. P r o f e s s i o n a l was a t e s t of m e m o r y r a t h e r than a t e s t of knowledge o r unde r s t and ing . And ye t these m e t a l l u r g i s t s of an e a r l i e r e r a were not without in- s ight even ff t he i r tools were l imi t ed .

In p r e p a r i n g this a d d r e s s I had r e c o u r s e to The Metallurgical Society Conferences, vol . 27, " T h e Sorby Cen tenn ia l Sympos ium on the H i s t o r y of Meta l - l u r g y " held in Cleve land in 1963. 3 Al lowing for d i f f e r - ences in j a r g o n the knowledge of these p i o n e e r s in m e t a l l u r g y was s u r p r i s i n g l y modern; but even m o r e s u r p r i s i n g was how m o d e r n t h e o r i e s were t en t a t i ve ly p r e s e n t e d in much e a r l i e r p e r i o d s than ~s c r e d i t e d . F o r example , the concept of the d i s l oca t i on as a s o u r c e of i n t e r n a l s t r e s s in an e l a s t i c so l id a p p e a r e d in a t h e o r y of e l a s t i c i t y in 1901 and the s t r e s s f ie ld a round

a d i s l oca t i on was ca l cu la t ed by T i m p e in 1905. If con- cept ion was in 1901 the ges t a t i on p e r i o d was 27 to 28 y e a r s . P r o f e s s o r s of my s tudent days were l e s s quick to p a s s on knowledge as i t was be ing genera ted ; today, the t e chn i ca l p r e s s and a c a d e m i c ambi t ion a r e l e s s hes i t an t .

The c r y s t a l l i z a t i o n of e f f e rvesc ing s c i e n c e as i t a f fec ted m e t a l l u r g y and as we know m e t a l l u r g y today, o c c u r r e d in the e a r l y 1930's . This was the p e r i o d when X - r a y c r y s t a l l o g r a p h i c a n a l y s i s of m e t a l s and a l loys b e c a m e the r a g e . You can judge the s t a t e of the sub jec t f r om an e x t r a c t f r o m a l e c tu r e given by W. H. B r a g g to the Ins t i tu te of Me ta l s s ix ty y e a r s ago. 4 " C o p p e r p o s s e s s e s a cons t i tu t ion v e r y e a s i l y d e s c r i b e d for i ts a t o m s a r e a r r a n g e d l ike a p i l e of shot; s i l v e r has l a t e ly been shown to p o s s e s s the s a m e s t r uc tu r e ; the s tudy of i ron c r y s t a l s has ha rd ly b e g u n . " This was the p e r i o d when d i s l oc a t i ons were f i r s t mooted and subsequen t ly con f i rmed as having a r e a l ex i s t ence ; when e l e c t r o n band t h e o r y was deve loped and when c l a s s i c a l t h e r m o d y n a m i c s was app l ied to m e t a l l u r g i c a l m a t e r i a l s p r o c e s s i n g and a l loy ing . A c a - d e m i c e n t h u s i a s m sp i l l ed over into i ndus t ry . P r a g - m a t i s m and da ta co l l ec t ion were sub jec t ed to t heo ry and fo rmu lae b a s e d on t he o ry . M e t a l l u r g i s t s we re im- bued with the u rge to expla in the phenomena and de- s c r i p t i v e knowledge of the behav io r of m e t a l s through sc i en t i f i c unde r s t and ing . Models were c r ea t ed , ma the - m a t i c a l l y a s s e s s e d and put to t e s t in e x p e r i m e n t .

The in t roduc t ion of the p r a c t i c e s and techniques of the b a s i c d i s c i p l i n e s of phys i c s , c h e m i s t r y or ma the- m a t i c s was to b r e a k down the a r b i t r a r y b a r r i e r s i so - l a t ing m e t a l l u r g y f rom the sc i en t i f i c wor ld . In the y e a r s which fol lowed the 1930's f indings in so l id s ta te s tud ies outs ide the m e t a l l i c a r e a were adopted or adap ted to expla in m e t a l l i c behavior ; d i s l oc a t i ons and the ef fec ts of v a c a n c i e s and i n t e r s t i t i a l s in inorgan ic m a t e r i a l s t r a n s p a r e n t or t r a n s l u c e n t gave l eads to those engaged in s tudying the opaque m e t a l l i c s ta te ; changes in background dens i ty of d i f f r ac t ion f i l m s or p a t t e r n s which had been c a r r i e d to a h igher d e g r e e of s o p h i s t i c a t e d a n a l y s i s in the s tudy of b io log i ca l m a t e - r i a l s than that to which m e t a l l u r g i s t s had b e c o m e ac - cus tomed , were app l ied to ident i fy s t r u c t u r a l n i c e t i e s such as s t ack ing faul ts in m e t a l s and a l loys ; the o r d e r e d na tu re of a l loy ing behav io r was r e l a t e d to the m e t a l l i c e l e m e n t s and al though much of th is was p r a g m a t i c a l l y p r a c t i c a l , i t a l so had i t s a e s t h e t i c a t - t r a c t i o n s in the concepts of the Br i l l ouen zones and in unde r s t and ing of d i a p a r a f e r r o - and a n t i f e r r o magne- t i sm; nuc lea t ion and growth of c r y s t a l s we re shown to be a u n i v e r s a l phenomena; and the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of m e t a l l o g r a p h i c s t r u c t u r e s which could be v i sua l ly i d e n t i f i e d - p e a r l i t e , m a r t e n s i t e , and so f o r t h - a s de - s i r a b l e s t r u c t u r e s with c e r t a i n p r o p e r t i e s which could be induced by a p p r o p r i a t e t r e a t m e n t in a p p r o p r i a t e a l l oys were no longer c o n s i d e r e d to be ac t s of God but could be exp la ined and p roduced by man. P e r h a p s the behav io r of ca rbon in i ron and i ts iden t i f i ca t ion with the y ie ld point i s a p a r t i c u l a r l y e legan t a s s o c i a - t ion of t h e o r y and e x p e r i m e n t p e c u l i a r to m e t a l l u r g y . To c o m p a r e a book l ike The Theory of Transforma- tions in Metals and Alloys by C h r i s t i a n publ i shed in 19655 with Metallography by C. H. Desch f i r s t i s s u e d in 1910, 6 is to c o m p a r e the chalk and cheese of the b e -

l l 8 0 - V O L U M E 9A, S E P T E M B E R 1978 M E T A L L U R G I C A L T R A N S A C T I O N S A

ginning and end of the span of my y e a r s in m e t a l l u r g y . A s s o c i a t e d with t h e s e t h e o r e t i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t s - in

fact e s s e n t i a l to t h e m - c a m e the new i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n deve loped by p h y s i c i s t s and c h e m i s t s for o ther p u r - p o s e s . Me ta l l og raphy was enhanced by i m p r o v e m e n t s in op t i ca l i n s t rumen ta t ion ; the p o l a r i z i n g m i c r o s c o p e , the phase c o n t r a s t m i c r o s c o p e and the deve lopmen t s of m u l t i p l e - b e a m i n t e r f e r o m e t r y , a l l d i s c l o s e d new f e a t u r e s and sub t l e t i e s of the m e t a l l i c m i c r o s t r u c - tu re ; d i f f r ac t i on by X - r a y s , t he scanning e l e c t r o n mi - c ro scope , A u g e r s p e c t r o s c o p y and nuc l ea r magne t ic r e s o n a n c e f u r t h e r e d s t r u c t u r a l unde r s t and ing of the under ly ing a tomic o r d e r i n g of so l i d s to which l a t e r neut ron d i f f r ac t ion added another e x p e r i m e n t a l tool . F ina l l y , f i e l d - i on m i c r o s c o p y a l lowed m e t a l l u r g i s t s to s ee so l ids at the a tomic l eve l . By means of r a d i o - ac t ive tagging with i so topes , p r o c e s s and dif fus ion phenomena could be fol lowed on the a tomic s c a l e .

A mos t s ign i f i can t deve lopmen t in i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n in the m e t a l s i n d u s t r i e s was the op t i ca l e m i s s i o n s p e c - t r o m e t e r in t roduced in a r a t h e r p r i m i t i v e f o r m - b e - fo re the Second Wor ld W a r . At the beginning, the in- s t r u m e n t was mos t l y used in conjunct ion with a photo- g raphic p la te and the r e l a t i v e in tens i ty of the s p e c t r a l l ines were d e t e r m i n e d by pho toce l l s . The deve lopmen t of the i n s t r u m e n t to i ts p r e s e n t s tage of r e f i n e m e n t o c c u r r e d when f i r s t the p la te was r e p l a c e d by a photo- m u l t i p l i e r and subsequen t ly the i n s t rumen t was then m a r r i e d to a compute r so that now we a r e able to ob- t a in within 15 to 20 seconds of i n s e r t i n g a s a m p l e an a n a l y s i s of seven o r ten components of a m e t a l ' s com- pos i t i on which by c h e m i c a l means could take up to s e v e r a l h o u r s . I n s t r u m e n t s b a s e d on X - r a y f l u o r e s - cence , which i s nondes t ruc t ive , p a r a l l e l e d the deve lop- ment of op t i ca l s p e c t r o m e t e r s p a r t i c u l a r l y in the non- f e r r o u s indus t ry . F u s i o n a n a l y z e r s we re f i r s t d e - ve loped in the 1930s to m e a s u r e g a s e s in m e t a l s and a r e now at such a s t age that an a n a l y s i s for example of the amount of oxygen in a s a m p l e can be obta ined in 1.5 to 2 minu te s .

In m o r e r e c e n t y e a r s both gas and p a p e r c h r o m a t o - graphy have been deve loped into e f f ic ien t a n a l y t i c a l tools and i n f r a - r e d techniques where ins tant r e s u l t s a r e needed . Now we have the m a s s s p e c t r o m e t e r which r e s p o n d s f a s t e r than i n f r a - r e d d e t e c t o r s with the capa- b i l i t y of ana lyz ing a l l g a s e s at once (CO and COs for example can be s i m u l t a n e o u s l y de tec ted) .

WHITHER NOW ?

I s a id of p r o c e s s and f a b r i c a t i o n m e t a l l u r g y that t h e r e was l i t t l e l ike l ihood of any revo lu t ion in the next few d e c a d e s . In the case of the s c i ence of m e t a l s , knowledge of which has e l thanced our c a p a c i t y to unde r - s tand and con t ro l the p roduc t s of m e t a l l u r g i c a l p r o c - e s s ing , t h e r e i s nothing tha t one can see in the p r e s e n t r e s e a r c h scene throughout the wor ld which wil l com- p a r e with the r evo lu t ion in thought and p r a c t i c e wrought in the 1930s. Meta l s c i ence and hence m e t a l l u r g y has e n t e r e d (and has been for some t ime in) a cons tan t ly i m p r o v i n g phase of s t e a d i l y e x t r a p o l a t i n g deve lopment . We a r e in a p e r i o d of i n c r e a s i n g l y dot t ing i ' s , c r o s s - ing t ' s and i n c r e a s i n g j a rgon . M e t a l s c i e n c e i t se l f wi l l become m o r e complex and app l i ca t i ons m o r e re f ined , but the s t e p s wi l l be s m a l l for man and s m a l l for man- kind.

I would not wish what I have s a id to be c o n s i d e r e d a s p e r s i o n o r to sugges t i m p r a c t i c a b i l i t y on the r e - s e a r c h e s now going on. I do not unde r s t and much of what I r e a d in the f indings f rom the E n r i c o F e r m i In- s t i tu te in Chicago, but i t would be fool i sh to ignore the s tud ies emana t ing f r o m this and l ike a c a d e m i c bod ies much l e s s sugges t that the s e e d s of some th ing s ign i f i - cant a r e not be ing sown in these ins t i tu t ions . In his p lay " T h e I d i o t " Dos toevsky wro te " M e n of genius have a l m o s t a lways been r e g a r d e d a s fools a t the be - ginning (and v e r y often at the end) of t he i r c a r e e r s . " Many renowned men have sa id in the pas t that th is o r that would neve r have any p r a c t i c a l app l i ca t ion or ad- vance the cause of m a t e r i a l p r o g r e s s ; many a new t h e o r e t i c a l f inding has had m a j o r i t y denigra t ion ; a tomic phys i c s and quantum mechan ic s we re con- s i d e r e d to be highly t h e o r e t i c a l and nonp rac t i c a l , and look where they have taken us. It may wel l be that in the na tu re of things t h e r e wi l l be s e r e nd ip i t y , a cc iden - t a l new d i s c o v e r y which wil l r a d i c a l l y change p rev ious e xpe r i e nc e and behav io r . But by def in i t ion one cannot p r e p a r e for th is in ant ic ipat ion; one can only be r e a d y to a c c e p t i t when it a r r i v e s . P e r h a p s even the c l i m a t e i s not r igh t for such d i s c o v e r y . A r n o l d Toyn- bee sa id " A sc ien t i f i c r e s p o n s e r e q u i r e s the absence of a s o c i a l o r economic cha l lenge so s t rong that i t l e aves no t i m e or ene rgy for anything e l s e . " P r e s e n t - day indus t ry and wor ld economics may be d r iv ing too ha rd to the dep r iva t i on of those who would look beyond the p r e s e n t .

My only t h e s i s i s that f r o m my knowledge of what i s happening in the advanced r e s e a r c h e s throughout the wor ld , t h e r e is no ind ica t ion of some new vas t r e v o l u - t ion in thought or change which would unde rmine our p r e s e n t th inking and a t t i tudes t ow a rds deve lopmen t s in p h y s i c a l m e t a l l u r g y . We a r e s t i l l i gnoran t of many f e a t u r e s in m e t a l s but our unde r s t and ing of these in the i m m e d i a t e fu ture is m o r e l ike ly to be f i l l ed in by the b a s i c knowledge of the m e t a l l i c s t a t e we now have r a t h e r than through some new f inding of m a j o r impor t . Tha t our knowledge wi l l i n c r e a s e in vo lume and na tu r e t h e r e can be no doubt. Today, a text book m o r e than five y e a r s old is c o n s i d e r e d o b s o l e s c e n t - p a r t i c u l a r l y by the au tho r s of the new books; but it is s a l u t a r y to s ee how many c h a p t e r s in the new i s s u e s of text books a r e m e r e l y r e p e t i t i o n s of the text books of ten to f i f teen y e a r s ago. I do some t i m e s wonder whether the new found i n t e r e s t in the a r c h a e l o g i c a l p a s t of m e t a l l u r g y has a r i s e n b e c a u s e of the pauc i ty of new things that one can say about the p r e s e n t ! ]

Yet , if one were to sum up the p r e s e n t s ta tus of p h y s i c a l m e t a l l u r g y and a s k " W h i t h e r now ? " i t would be to ident i fy theo ry and e x p e r i m e n t with a d e s i r e to unde r s t and and con t ro l the r e a l wor ld and not pursue the idea l , to a p p r e c i a t e the common o c c u r r e n c e , the extent and the na tu re of the i m p e r f e c t i o n s and faul ts in the c r y s t a l l i n e m i c r o - and m a c r o - s t r u c t u r e s of me t a l s , to note t h e i r a s s o c i a t i o n with c e r t a i n p r o p e r t i e s and to r e a l i z e that these can be c on t ro l l e d within l i m i t s . F o r example , a l loy ing e l e m e n t s can be added to p r o - duce spec i f i c effects ; g r a i n s i ze can be con t ro l l ed and g r a i n b o u n d a r i e s can be locked; d i s l o c a t i o n s can be pinned; and nonmeta l l i c inc lus ions o r phase s can be modi f ied in s i ze , shape and d i s p e r s i o n to p roduce be ne f i c i a l e f fec t s through con t ro l l ed nuc lea t ion or a s

METALLURGICAL TRANSACTIONS A VOLUME 9A, SEPTEMBER 1978-1181

s t o p p e r s to d i s loca t ion movement . With the a id of f r a c t u r e mechan i c s even c r a c k s can be accep t ed p r o - v ided they a r e of s u b c r i t i c a l s i ze , shape and in non- dangerous s i tua t ions in r e s p e c t of s t r e s s p a t t e r n s . Not only a r e we a w a r e of n a t u r a l fau l t s , but we a r e now conce rned with induced f a u l t s - t h e ef fec ts of i r - r ad i a t ion , and the faul ts induced by s t r e s s , s i m p l e o r complex ; c r e e p o r fat igue and e n v i r o n m e n t a l s t r e s s ( s t r e s s c o r r o s i o n ) and of c o r r o s i o n i t se l f . Where at p r e s e n t only t r i a l and e r r o r cu rves and e x p e r i m e n t a l enve lopes of behav io r p a t t e r n s a r e ava i l ab le , it is a p e r s o n a l view that much of th is (but not a l l ) wi l l be quant i f iab le in the next decade . The ca l cu la t ing m e t a l - l u rg i s t i s undoubtedly on the way.

Since the m e t a l l u r g i c a l wor ld is the r e a l wor ld , the r e a l wor ld i m p o s e s i t s e l f upon the m e t a l l u r g i c a l wor ld . In what d i r e c t i o n s can we an t i c ipa te that m e t a l - l u r g y wil l be compe l l ed to move to the end of the cen- t u r y at l e a s t . I would l ike to commen t on a few which could af fec t m e t a l l u r g i c a l i n d u s t r i e s and hence soc i e ty .

SOME GENERAL FEATURES OF THE REAL WORLD

The s t a n d a r d s of l iving of na t ions show a c o r r e l a - t ion with t he i r use of m e t a l s . F i g u r e 4 i l l u s t r a t e s the p e r cap i t a demand for s t e e l in r e l a t i o n to the p e r cap i t a income of the indigenous popula t ions . 7 It is un- c e r t a i n whether the s t e e l usage in the U.S. wil l r e t a i n i t s p r e s e n t l eve l or r educe (if it does r i s e it wil l be a s m a l l a symp to t i c i n c r e a s e ) . It is ce r t a in , however , that the deve lop ing nat ions wi l l a t t emp t to i m p r o v e t h e i r m a t e r i a l s t a n d a r d s which wil l be r e f l e c t e d in a m a r k e d i n c r e a s e in s t e e l consumpt ion .

A c c o r d i n g to the United Nat ions , about 30 pct of the pgesen t wor ld popula t ion is in the deve loped wor ld , the r e m a i n i n g 70 pct in the deve lop ing coun t r i e s . F i g u r e 5 shows p r e d i c t i o n s of wor ld popula t ion b a s e d on s e v e r a l d i f f e ren t growth r a t e s of the w o r l d ' s populat ion. In E u r o p e as a whole the a v e r a g e in - c r e a s e in popula t ion in r e c e n t y e a r s has been l e s s than 0.8 pc t a y e a r , while in South Eas t A s i a for ex- ample , dur ing the l a t t e r half of the 1960's , the popula- t ion was i n c r e a s i n g at 2.8 pct a y e a r . The r e a s o n for th is huge i n c r e a s e is that many deve lop ing coun t r i e s a r e pa r t way through t h e i r t r a n s i t i o n s with the death r a t e a l r e a d y d e c r e a s e d but the b i r t h r a t e s t i l l to come down. Once the m a j o r coun t r i e s e m e r g e with low b i r th and low dea th r a t e s , the l a r g e p e r c e n t a g e i n c r e a s e in popula t ion wil l be m o d e r a t e d . The app l i ca t ion of s c i - ence in s o c i e t y l ead ing to a h igher s t a n d a r d of l iving

Ki lo r a m s p e r P e r s o n p e r Y e a r - 1968 700. use

a a West G e r m ~ e ~ ~ ' ' ' ' " 600-

500" J P nO

400" USSRO ~ " ~U~ted Kingdom

300" P~ ~F~ance

200-

100' arazil J China QO T~rl Mexlc~

India 500 1OO0 1500 2000 25OO 30OO 35'00 4OOO �9 ~ ,o~, GNP per capita - 1968 (US dollars per pef~on per year)

Fig. 4--World steel consumption and GNP per capita.

Po )ulation in Billions(thousand million)

20: constant Rate of Increase

15- H~gh Less Developed f \ Countries I / \

~N~'~,~ I / Medium ', \

10- \ ~ \ 1 , / ~" growth ~ \ ~ . ' l / r ,_ , jDates

#/" Developed / J Countries V

',

o 1900 2000 2100 Year

Fig. 5--Projected world population.

in i t i a l ly cause s p r o b l e m s in an i n c r e a s e d r a t e of popula t ion growth, but once the d e m o g r a p h i c t r a n s i - t ion has worked i t se l f out, the r a t e of growth wil l tend to z e r o .

The u l t ima te wor ld populat ion, a s shown in F ig . 5 depends on v a r i o u s d i f fe ren t a s s u m p t i o n s on the da t e s of comple t ion of the d e m o g r a p h i c t r a n s i t i o n s in de - ve lop ing c oun t r i e s . In Ceylon, Hong Kong, P u e r t o Rico and Taiwan, the d e m o g r a p h i c t r a n s i t i o n is com- p le te or a l m o s t comple te and the t r a n s i t i o n is a l so wel l underway in China. Unfor tunate ly , ev idence is l ack ing as ye t on such highly popula ted and r a p i d l y growing coun t r i e s l ike India and B r a z i l . F o r a v a r i e t y of r e a s o n s - f o o d , ca l l on r e s o u r c e s , pol lut ion, the p r o b l e m s of unemploymen t in an i n c r e a s i n g l y auto- ma ted world , the compl i ca t i ons of po l i t i c s b a s e d on s i z e - t h e s m a l l e r the number of people on e a r t h the b e t t e r the env i ronment of human su rv iva l . The ev i - dence a l l shows that the d e m o g r a p h i c t r a n s i t i o n s e t s in when a count ry beg ins to become i n d u s t r i a l i z e d and where technology and mode rn sc i ence a r e app l ied for the w e l l - b e i n g of the populat ion by gene ra t i ng a h igher s t a n d a r d of l iv ing. T h e r e was, in the deve loped coun- t r i e s , a gap of s e v e r a l gene ra t ions be tween the fa l l in the dea th r a t e and the fa l l in the b i r t h ra te ; pe rhaps the t i m e - s c a l e in deve lop ing coun t r i e s wil l be l e s s a s the ev idence of J apan and Sweden ind i ca t e s . So that the u l t ima te wor ld populat ion wil l be a s nea r as p o s s i - b le the lowest e s t i m a t e shown, i s i t then adv i sab l e by in t roduc ing m o d e r n technology into the deve lop ing coun t r i e s at a r a p i d r a t e , to has ten the d e m o g r a p h i c t r a n s i t i o n ? And if so, how?

RAW MATERIALS

The metallurgical industries are completely depend- ent upon available supplies of the raw materials which

l182-VOLUME 9A, SEPTEMBER 1978 METALLURGICAL TRANSACTIONSA

Fig~ 6--Lifetimes of known reserves of some natural r e - sources (from Meadows et alT).

the i n d u s t r i e s p r o c e s s . T h e s e d iv ide into raw ma te - r i a l s p e r s e and s ince the m e t a l l u r g i c a l i n d u s t r i e s a r e the l a r g e s t of the ene rgy consuming i n d u s t r i e s , fue l s . The wor ld is l imi t ed in i ts m a t e r i a l m a k e - u p and on the b a s i s of two a s s u m e d usage r a t e s F ig . 6 i l l u s - t r a t e s , a c c o r d i n g to D. H. Meadows et al 7 in the book T h e L i m i t s to Growth , how long the known r e s e r v e s of some n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s may l a s t . (The quant i t a t ive v a l u e s quoted a r e not s ign i f i can t . Opinions on these may d i f f e r . What is impor t an t is the s ense of l i m i t a - t ion.) It is of s ign i f i cance t h e r e f o r e tha t the deve lop- ing coun t r i e s a r e the r a p i d l y growing c e n t e r s of raw m a t e r i a l deve lopmen t and supply . They a r e a l so l ike ly to show the g r e a t e s t r a t e of growth in m a t e r i a l p r o - g r e s s , s i nce they wil l wish t h e i r po ten t i a l i ty for h igher s t a n d a r d s of l iving to be r e a l i z e d for and through t h e i r l a r g e l abor poo l s .

A D e c l a r a t i o n and P l an of Ac t ion p a s s e d at the UNIDO G e n e r a l Confe rence in L i m a in 1975, had as i ts p r i m a r y aim the r e s t r u c t u r i n g and r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of the w o r l d ' s i ndus t ry . Whether the deve lop ing coun- t r i e s r e a l i z e the full s ign i f i cance of the p r o b l e m s of ach iev ing t h e i r ob jec t ives is one thing; but whether the deve loped coun t r i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y those with l i t t l e o r r educ ing n a t u r a l weal th , can s t age t h e i r fu tu re in- d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n under c i r c u m s t a n c e s which wi l l d i f fe r f rom the pas t , is equa l ly i m p o r t a n t and ano ther thing. How i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n i s to be brought about in deve lop- ing coun t r i e s i s as i m p o r t a n t as the extent to which it i s ach ieved .

Within a context of a d v e r s a r y p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m s but of nonpro tec t ion i s t wor ld t r a d e where the g e o g r a p h i c a l d i s t r i bu t ion of raw m a t e r i a l s f avo r s the deve lop ing coun t r i e s but where t echnolog ica l advance f avo r s the p r e s e n t l y deve loped coun t r i e s , i m p o r t e d technology in poor coun t r i e s t h e r e f o r e m a k e s the deve lop ing coun-

t r i e s highly dependent on e x p e r t i s e f r o m the deve loped wor ld . One example of such new compl i ca t i on is where the p r e s e n t l y deve lop ing o r non indus t r i a l i z ed coun t r i e s who a r e in p o s s e s s i o n of na tu r a l weal th demand that they b e c o m e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d to a f ford the i r own na- t iona l s i m p r o v e d s t a n d a r d s of l iv ing. To effect th is it may wel l be that i nves tmen t in i n d u s t r i a l i z e d court- t r i e s wi l l be c o n s t r a i n e d in p r i m a r y produc t ion of m e t a l s and even in p r o c e s s i n g . It is of some r e l e v a n c e and pe rhaps s y m p t o m a t i c that in the r e c e n t pas t the deve lop ing coun t r i e s have of fe red to supply not raw m a t e r i a l s but s e m i f i n i s h e d goods in the f o r m of b i l l e t s ; and is i t p e r h a p s a s ign of fu ture changes that the de- veloped na t ions a r e tu rn ing to the p r o v i s i o n of m o r e s o p h i s t i c a t e d s e r v i e s , e.g . banking, p r o j e c t manage- ment and so for th , at the expense of mmaufacture in t h e i r use of manpower ? Wi l l these p r e s s u r e s f rom the deve lop ing coun t r i e s l ead to p r o t e c t i o n i s m in those coun t r i e s t r a d i n g in the W e s t e r n W o r l d ? What then wi l l happen to GATT ? And what wi l l happen to the laws of a n t i t r u s t in the U.S. when the e x t e r n a l compe- t i t ion not of t r a d e but of raw m a t e r i a l s for indus t ry is j o ined? And wi l l we see an upsu rge in t r a n s n a t i o n a l g roup ings with common cause of OPEC type a r r a n g e - men t s in m e t a l l u r g i c a l i n d u s t r i e s ?

To avoid these diff icul t po l i t i c a l l y involved p rob - l e m s and de l ay the t ime of po l i t i c a l dec i s ion d e t e r - min ing economic p r a c t i c e , t h e r e wi l l undoubtedly, t h e r e f o r e , be in the f i r s t p l ace a g r e a t e r and m o r e in tens ive s e a r c h for raw m a t e r i a l s by the deve loped coun t r i e s to enhance known r e s e r v e s and w h e r e v e r p o s s i b l e in p l a c e s where na t iona l r e s t r i c t i o n s a r e not pa r amoun t . A g r e a t e r unde r s t and ing of geology com- b ined with new techniques for loca t ing raw m a t e r i a l s a s b rought out by space photography, should l ead to an augmenta t ion in supp l i e s . One a r e a which has been u n d e r - d e v e l o p e d for many y e a r s but which wil l a t - t r a c t i n c r e a s i n g a t tent ion wil l be s e a - b e d exp lo ra t ion , s ince where raw m a t e r i a l s e a r c h and deve lopmen t is concerned , the s e a s which a r e i n t e r n a t i o n a l wi l l avoid the p o l i t i c a l d i f f i cu l t i e s of n a t i o n a l i s m . And the so - ph i s t i c a t ed deve lopmen t s in o f f - s h o r e exp lo i t a t ion of oi l and gas may have t h e i r sp in -o f f s when the s e a r c h is ex tended to o ther raw m a t e r i a l s .

WASTE

T h e r e is one raw m a t e r i a l sou rce which has a l r e a d y had e n e r g y expended on i t and whose r e c o v e r y could p a r t i a l l y offse t the need for new raw m a t e r i a l s . That

Fig. 7--Recycling of materials in 1974 (source: Warren Spring LaboratoryS).

METALLURGICAL TRANSACTIONS A VOLUME 9A SEPTEMBER 1978-1183

]1) ~ ~ ~ ~ ] . I ~ ~ ) J~ll" .... Residue - - ~ / Platform I Lifting Conveyor .~..~ ~ . ~ 7 , f ~ ~ l ~ ~ = ~i ~ . ~ " ~ : ~ , - Jggg(~.~..-.-.~

r ~ , ' ~ ~ Y~ k ~ k ~ I ~ ~ Magnetic Cleaning

~ ~ ' ~ ~ * + ~ ! I ~--%__ Des atch of Baled Tin late Scra f ~ J ,~1 ~ y 4 ~ P " P P

Red and Green shows the route of total refuse S "p ~ l J The Path of Non-ferrous Material

The Route of Tins and other Ferrous Items

Fig . 8 - - P l a n t fo r w a s t e r e - c o v e r y bu i l t by Heenan E n - v i r o n m e n t a l S y s t e m s to MRL D e s i g n .

is, of course , waste. Recycl ing of waste 8 is a l ready a fea ture of many meta l s i n d u s t r i e s - s t e e l , copper, a luminum (Fig. 7 ) - b u t the development and enhance- ment of waste r ecove ry will ce r t a in ly occupy even more r e s e a r c h and development and g rea te r changes in col lect ion and d is t r ibu t ion . F igure 8 shows a sche- mat ic drawing of a p roces s a l ready en te red into in the U.K. for the r e c o v e r y of the t in and s t ee l and any other ex t raneous m a t e r i a l of the common can.

Leaving out the spec ia l i ty ma te r i a l s (whose p r ope r - t ies can not be matched by the more common meta l s and al loys) , the base meta l which wil l a t t r ac t the g rea tes t use in the future wil l be that which uses the leas t energy in i ts ex t rac t ion and p rocess ing . F igure 9 i l l u s t r a t e s the energy r equ i r ed to produce the com- mon meta l s in bulk use 9 and hence the r e s i d u a l energy contained in the i r reduced state as waste . The ad- vantage c l ea r ly l ies with s t ee l as the m a t e r i a l with leas t energy demand. In the context of min imiza t ion of energy usage including the costs of mining, t r a n s - port , p rocess ing , f in ishing and r e c o v e r y of waste, s tee l wil l continue to r a n k high as a meta l of society although its spec ia l r e q u i r e m e n t of coking coal might c rea te a t e m p o r a r y hiccup unti l such t ime as subs t i - tutes for coking coal, e.g. pre fo rmed coke, a re found or a l t e rna t ive ex t rac t ion p roce s se s developed, e.g. d i rec t reduct ion . And in the league of meta l ore r e - s e r v e s i ron l ies second to chrome. Steel notwithstand- ing cycl ic r e c e s s i o n s wil l be with us for a long t ime.

We have reached an absurd stage in soc ia l thinking where people do not want to develop or use our two main sources of e n e r g y - f o s s i l fuels because they pol- lute the a tmosphere or a re a was t ing asse t , and nu- c lea r fuels because of r e a l or imagined r ad io -ac t ive dangers or mi l i t a ry impl ica t ions . What power sources based on ach ievement of high t e m p e r a t u r e wil l be ava i l - able to the me ta l l u rg i ca l p ro fes s ion if these a re ex- cluded, nobody has said. It is doubtful whether foss i l fuel suppl ies to the me t a l l u rg i ca l i ndus t r i e s will be in t e r rup ted or development of nuc lea r power thwarted. Meta l lu rg ica l p r o c e s s e s which a re ubiquitous in the i r use of fuel a re more l ikely to gain support than those which a re based on a s ingle spec ia l i s t fuel source . This is not to gainsay that conse rva t ion will be cal led for and there wil l be an undoubted s ea rch and develop- ment for improved ef f ic iencies . It used to be said of

the Chicago s l augh te r -house that every th ing of the pig was used except the whist le . Of the me ta l l u rg i ca l future it can equally be said that eve ry ca lor ie of energy genera ted in the meta l producing indus t ry will be regenera ted , r ecupe ra t ed and used f rom the com- bust ion of the raw fuel to waste heat. The t e r m in fact "was te hea t " will tend to d isappear f rom indus t ry .

The na tu ra l a l t e rna t ives , wind, tide and so la r energy, which a re nonpollutant , may lead to the g rea te r de- velopment of e l e c t r i c a l power. It is worth cons ider - ing whether this p resages the g rea te r use of e lec- t r i c a l l y powered p r o c e s s i n g in me ta l l u rg i ca l p roc- e s s e s in the next cen tury . An a l t e rna t ive is a r e s u r - gence of nonpol lut ing p rocess m e t a l l u r g y - the use of hydrogen as a reduc tan t e i ther of oxides of through halide regenera t ion , the hydrogen for these purposes be ing genera ted through e l ec t ro lys i s of water . But whatever the development which finds favor, the in- ve s tmen t in the energy bus ine s s i tself , to take advant- age of this , wil l be co lossa l and it will r e qu i r e two or even three genera t ions to make a se r ious impact on the me ta l l u rg i ca l i ndus t r i e s by these a l t e rna t ive rou tes .

ENVIRONMENT

A further problem of the metallurgical industries relates to the environment. The industrial waste

Energy GJ/tonne (xlO+J) Ore 330-

IIIIIIII 160- 140- 120- 100- 80- +o] 40

20

0 Aluminium Copper Steel Zinc Lead Plastics Synthetic Cement Rubber

Fig. 9--Energy for extracting materials in the United King- dom (after Chapmang) .

1184-VOLUME 9A, SEPTEMBER 1978 METALLURGICAL TRANSACTIONS A

lands of the e a r l y i n d u s t r i a l r evo lu t ion and deve lop- ments in m o r e mode rn t i m e s have led to r e v u l s i o n by those of us (which r e a l l y means a l l of us) who wish to i m p r o v e the qual i ty of our env i ronmen t . Tha t be ing so, the continuing pol lu t ion of a i r o r wa te r or in fac t of the env i ronmen t i t s e l f through ugly and d i l ap i t a t ed bui ld ings , wi l l in the fu ture be c a t e r e d for r e s p e c - t i ve ly by an t ipo l lu t ion dev i ce s and by new f a c t o r i e s func t iona l ly su i t ed to p r o c e s s i n g and the hous ing of e m p l o y e e s . The d e g r e e to which th is is a l r e a d y a p r o b l e m is to be found in the l a r g e sums of money hav- ing to be spent to c o r r e c t the f a i l u r e s of the pas t . T h e r e wi l l be no such r epe t i t i on for the fu ture . Cap i - t a l i nves tmen t in new p lan ts wi l l have to a c c o m m o d a t e t hese e x t r a cos t s f r o m the s t a r t in the des ign of new p r o c e s s e s and the i r equipment . It u sed to be sa id where t h e r e is muck t h e r e i s money; today, whe re t h e r e is muck t h e r e is a f a c t o r y i n s p e c t o r r e a d y to c lose down the f a c t o r y . The m e t a l i n d u s t r i e s of the fu ture wi l l be c lean p l a c e s in which to work .

WORKING CONDITIONS

Th i s c l e a n l i n e s s is a l so going to make i t s e l f appa ren t in the use and work ing condi t ions of the manpower of the m e t a l p roduc ing i n d u s t r i e s . T h e i r p r o c e s s e s (even a l though they a r e batch) a r e capab le of p roduc ing l a rge quan t i t i e s of m a t e r i a l s with r e l a t i v e l y l i t t le l abo r and c e r t a i n l y much l e s s manual l abor than at p r e s e n t ob ta ins . The r a t i o of output pe r man y e a r in the m e t a l p roduc ing i n d u s t r i e s wi l l i n c r e a s e s u b s t a n t i a l l y . As example , in 1951 o n e - m a n y e a r p roduced 100 tonnes of c rude s t ee l ; in 1981, 1000 tonnes of s t e e l wi l l be p roduced by the s a m e ef for t . A fac to r of ten in p r o - duc t iv i ty cannot be offset by an i n c r e a s i n g demand which may r e a c h t h r e e to five p e r c e n t pe r annum. The one c e r t a i n t y is that the manpower of the p r e s e n t m e t a l p roduc ing i n d u s t r i e s in the deve loped coun t r i e s wi l l be subs t an t i a l l y r e d u c e d by the end of the cen tury even al though the output i s r a d i c a l l y i n c r e a s e d . And high unemployment na t iona l ly may lead to g r e a t e r work s h a r i n g for cont inuous produc t ion p r o c e s s e s and in such as the m e t a l l u r g i c a l i n d u s t r i e s may l ead to the f o u r - s h i f t day i n s t ead of the p r e s e n t t h r e e , and in o ther i n d u s t r i e s to the f o u r - d a y week.

T h e r e wi l l a l so be a m a r k e d change in the p a t t e r n of the work fo rce . Manual l abor wi l l r educe by r e p l a c e - ment with m a c h i n e r y and au tomat ion in the t rue s ense of that word . A work fo rce sk i l l ed in the ope ra t ion and main tenance of the new technology wi l l have to r e p l a c e it . He re in l i e s an i n t e r e s t i n g ba lance to be d e t e r m i n e d in the next two o r t h r e e d e c a d e s . Wi l l the cos t s and qua l i ty of p roduc t ion of the soph i s t i c a t ed highly pa id highly cap i t a l in tens i f ied manpower tend to r e t a i n the p r i m a c y of manufac tu re in the deve loped coun t r i e s , o r wi l l the l abor in tens ive l e s s s o p h i s t i c a t e d lower pa id manpower of the deve lop ing wor ld gain the advantage ?

With the fu r the r in t roduc t ion of sk i l l ed l abor wi l l be two fu r t he r condi t ions of emp loymen t . The f i r s t r e l a t e s to work ing condi t ions where the s e d e n t a r y r e - placement of manual labor will require conditions which do not lead to fatigue and the second that the working conditions for all labor does not lead to bore- dom. As to the first, the health element of health and safety in industry will take a more extended definition meaning not just avoiding toxicity or industrial dan-

gers, but ensuring that the less obvious ill-effects at work, e .g. back t roub le , the common cold and so for th , a r e not p r o m o t e d by poor e r g o n o m i c s or e nv i ronmen ta l de f i c i e nc i e s .

The imp l i c a t i ons of the second wil l be that many of the sk i l l ed w o r k e r s wi l l not be confined to a s ingle c l a s s of o p e r a t i o n a l duty but wi l l be a sked to do two or m o r e jobs r e q u i r i n g s e p a r a t e s k i l l s or changing demands ; e.g. a p e r i o d in the l a b o r a t o r y fol lowed by managemen t on the shop f loor fol lowed by p roduc t ion con t ro l a l l in one shif t . Th is in turn wi l l make demands upon educa t ion and t r a i n i n g of the i n d u s t r i a l t echnolo- g is t not jus t a t the s t a r t of his c a r e e r but throughout; it wi l l lead to g r e a t e r g e n e r a l i z a t i o n in educat ion and t r a i n i n g with s u p e r - i m p o s e d s p e c i a l i z a t i o n at d i f f e r - ent t i m e s in the c a r e e r l ife of the individual .

THE TRADE CYCLE

Compl i c a t i ng a l l the g e n e r a l t r ends to which I have r e f e r r e d , t h e r e a r e the undoubted d i f f i cu l t i e s which many of us have e x p e r i e n c e d in c y c l i c a l v a r i a t i o n s in economic ac t iv i ty . In d e t e r m i n i n g the i r fu ture con- duct , mos t m e t a l i n d u s t r i e s take account of these in sho r t t e r m c o n s i d e r a t i o n s of po l icy . But wi l l th is be suf f ic ien t in the fu tu r e ? Is the p r e s e n t " m a n i f e s t c r i s i s " in the s t e e l i ndus t r i e s of the wor ld an excep- t iona l c i r c u m s t a n c e or a fu ture ru le .9 Fou r impor t an t c y c l e s have been ident i f ied in i n t e rna t i ona l economies by p lo t t ing the changes in v a r i o u s economic e l e m e n t s . T h e r e is :

1) the Kondra t i e f f cyc le of f i f ty - four y e a r s which re - f l ec t s in s tud ies of the movemen t s of wholesa le p r i c e s , s e c u r i t i e s and i n d u s t r i a l innovations;

2) the Kuznets e igh teen y e a r rhy thm r e l a t i n g to s e - cu r i ty p r i c e s , r e a l e s t a t e ac t i v i t y and i n d u s t r i a l en- t e r p r i s e ;

3) the J u g l a r 9.225 r h y t h m s known commonly as the decenn ia l p a t t e r n in s e c u r i t y p r i c e s , who lesa l e p r i c e s and i n d u s t r i a l ac t iv i ty ; and

4) the Ki tchen th ree and a half to four y e a r r hy thm in s e c u r i t y p r i c e s , i n t e r e s t r a t e s , b u s i n e s s ac t iv i ty , who le sa l e and r e t a i l p r i c e s .

A l l these cyc l e s of c o u r s e i n t e r ac t with one ano ther a s shown in F ig . i0. ~~ F r o m this it is p r e d i c t e d that f r o m the e a r l y and middle 1970's onwards we a r e in the down- tu rn of the i n d u s t r i a l cyc le , sub iec t a lways of cou r se to the p e r t u r b a t i o n s of the s m a l l e r cyc le components and that t h e r e wi l l be no r e t u r n to t ru ly boom condi t ions unt i l t owards the end of the cen tury .

Calculated Path

crisis and panic crisis and panic / : . ~ danger d,_.~, danger

" X acute crisis ' "%" acutses and

~ e " \ a~ ," . . . . . , C / - . . . . . . . ~-.X , - ,

K o n d r a t i e f f Source: T,J. Zimmermann . . . . J u g l a r Geschichte der theoretischen - - K i t c h i n Votkswirtschafts-lehrs - - ' - - C o m p o s i t e of 1, 2, & 3 - Dr. PE. Erdman - unpublished paper

Fig. 10--The 20th Century business cycle and crisis points.

METALLURGICAL TRANSACTIONS A VOLUME 9A, SEPTEMBER 1978-1185

What does this predic t ion, if it cont inues , imply for the meta l indus t r i e s , a be l lwether of the economy?

The cost of capi ta l inves tment in modern technology in the meta l i ndus t r i e s is high and the lead t imes con- s i d e r a b l e - anything f rom three to ten yea r s . If Kon- drat ieff is to be bel ieved, the prospec ts should be that i nves tmen t will be min imized over the next two decades . The guiding pr inc ip le would be to back eco- nomic savings whether in manpower , energy or other improvemen t s in eff iciency by l imi t ing inves tmen t to ex is t ing plants , but to subdue any tendency to provide ex t ra capacity in ant ic ipa t ion of rapid economic de- velopment (unless pol i t ica l or n o n c o m m e r c i a l con- s ide ra t ions ex te rna l ly imposed take precedence) , or where costs of main tenance or product ion due to obso lescence cannot be offset in revenue . (Recall that novel technology has been cons idered unlikely.) Under such condit ions boom per iods will be met not by sup- ply but by the ra t ion ing of pr ic ing . To cover them- se lves c o n s u m e r s will tend to spread out their in- ve s tmen t s so that they can make use of what they have for longer per iods and where they have to buy there will be a tendency to seek improved p rope r t i e s in their purchases of meta ls and al loys to make these last . The r e su l t will be a cal l for more r e l i ab l e al loys whether under env i ronmen ta l s t r e s s or co r ros ion . Here again therefore , i ndus t r i a l innovat ion in plant and p r o c e s s e s will be en te red into with less urgency than might have been the case in the yea r s just before or at the approach to the boom of the Kondrat ieff cycle. This of course would complement the p re sen t mood of the developed soc ie t ies to reac t agains t the waste phi losophies of society.

CONCLUSION

There can be no conclusion to this pe r sona l view of what has happened and what might happen. If there is one thing that can be said about sc ience and develop- ments de r iv ing there f rom, it is that they are never dull even in a per iod of undramat ic development . But if past h i s to ry is anything to go by, those of us who have been in the r e s e a r c h and development end of the meta l s i ndus t r i e s s t i l l ant icipate, even wish for, a future shock comparab le in exc i tement to that exper i - enced by the me ta l l u rg i s t s of the th i r t i e s .

It is in the i ndus t r i a l development of the meta l in-

dus t r i e s that the g rea te r changes to the end of the cent ruy will be felt . The high costs of new investment ; the growth of the developing count r ies as cen te r s of raw m a t e r i a l s and demand; the r e s t r i c t i o n s of raw ma- t e r i a l r e s e r v e s ; the cons t ra in t s on na t ional m e r g e r s ; c lo su res and demanning to extend the ex is tence of es - tabl ished companies; the i n t e rna t i ona l i sm of produc- ing i n t e r e s t s and the growing divide of in te rna t iona l compet i t ion pa r t i cu l a r l y in developed count r ies where growth r a t e s a re s ta t ic or r e d u c i n g - a l l these con- f l icts cannot but r e su l t in a change of i ndus t r i a l pat- t e rn unlike anything so far exper ienced . If in th i r ty yea r s Japan can achieve what she has, how about the p rospec t s of other count r ies with g rea te r na tu r a l ad- v a n t a g e s - t h e East , Afr ica , the South A m e r i c a n States and count r ies like Canada and Aus t r a l i a . But na t ional boundar ies cannot exclude in te rna t iona l p r o b l e m s - a n d the p rob lems of the meta l s indus t r i e s a re in te rna t iona l .

In the second century Marcus Aure l iu s in his "Medi - t a t i o n s " wrote

"Neve r let the future d i s tu rb you. You wil l meet it if you have to with the same weapons of r ea son which today a r m you agains t the p r e s e n t . "

I agree his f i r s t p r e m i s e but would hope that we would show g rea t e r powers of r e a s o n than we have as nat ions and as p ro fess iona l s shown in the past . I r e - gret that I may not be here to recount the wondrous tale that s t i l l r e m a i n s to be unfolded. But then if I had been a genera t ion younger I would not have been here to de l iver the Dis t inguished Lec ture .

REFERENCES

1. Metallgeselschaft AG: MetalStatistics, 1965-75, pp. 62-64, Frankfurt, 1976. 2. Herbert Alexander Simon: Karl Taylor Compton Lecture, M.I.T., 1968. 3. The Sorby Centennial Symposium on the History of Metallurgy, Metallurgical

Society Conferences, vol. 27, Cleveland, 1963. 4. W. H_ Bragg: "X-Rays and Crystal Structure with Special Reference to Certain

Me tals". Z Inst. Metals, 1916, vol. XVI, no. 2, pp. 12-13. 5. J. W. Christian: Theory of Transformations in Metals, Oxford (Pergamon),

1965. 6. C. H. Desch: Metallography, London, 1910. 7. D. H. Meadows, et aL: The Limits of Growth, 2nd ed., Washington, (Potomac

Associates), 1974. 8. Private communication: Warren Spring Laboratory, Stevenage, U.K. 9. P. F. Chapman: Energy Policy, vol. 3, 1975.

10. T. J. Zimmerman: Geschichte der Theoretischen Volkswirtschafts-Lehrs; and P. E. Erdman, Unpublished paper.

1186-VOLUME 9A, SEPTEMBER 1978 METALLURGICAL TRANSACTIONSA