the shape of things past and to come

THE 1977 DISTINGUISHED LECTURESHIP IN MATERIALS AND SOCIETY

The Shape of Things Past and to Come

SIR MONTY FINNISTON, FRS

The h i s to r i ca l development of me ta l l u rgy and of eng ineer ing m a t e r i a l s e s t ab l i shes the impor t ance of cu l ture and economy on the guidance of p r o g r e s s and change. The re is no indicat ion of r evo lu t iona ry sc ien t i f ic changes in our unders tand ing and hence con- t ro l of me ta l s in the near future , but s igni f icant a l t e ra t ion of i ndus t r i a l m e t a l l u r g i c a l p rocedu re s mus t occur as r equ i r ed by pol i t i ca l cons ide ra t ions and ava i lab i l i ty of raw materia ls including fuels.

T O gain the distinction of a Distinguished Lecturer of the ASM-TMS/AIME carr ies with it the personal and natural satisfaction associated with f lattery and honor; but the former is not wholly uplifting and the latter has its depress ing aspect , s ince was it not the late Dag Hammarskjold who wrote "Time goes by; reputation increases but ability dec l ines ." At my age s ince distinction can only be based on the record of the past, one should not therefore expect originality in the present and only a l imited extrapolation into the future.

My subject "The Shape of Things Past and to Come" is a nostalgic view of my experience as a metal lurgist ,

who p rac t i ced the d i sc ip l ine p ro fes s iona l ly for jus t over th i r ty ye a r s but has been out of that p a r t i c u l a r bat t le f ront though in the war of indus t ry for some t e n y e a r s mor e . My thes i s is to draw what l e s sons can be drawn f rom my pas t as they affect the p r e s e n t and those fea tu res of the p r e s e n t as may affect the fu ture . I do not intend there fore to confuse you or myse l f with de ta i led de sc r ip t i ons of the p r a c t i c e s and p r o c e s s e s of mode rn m e t a l l u r g i c a l i ndus t r i e s or with the c 'omplica- t ions of sol id s ta te phys ics , p a r t i c u l a r l y in i ts t heo re t i - cal and ma thema t i ca l abs t r ac t ions ; nor do I propose ex- pounding on that mode rn t i m e - w a s t e r - e c o n o m i c fo re - cas t s of the future of the me ta l s i n d u s t r i e s - s i n c e as

SIR MONTY FINNISTON, FRS (who was made a Knight Bachelor in the New Year Honours List 1975) is a Director of Seat's Holdings Limited and Executive Chairman of Sears Engineering Limited. With a First Class Hon- ours Degree in Metallurgy (University of Strathclyde-fon'nerly the Royal College of Science and Technology, Glasgow), and a Ph.D, he started his scientific career as a Lecturer at the Royal College of Science and Technology. He then served for a short period at Stewarts and Lloyds Steel Company, and then as Chief Research Officer with the Scottish Coke Research Committee. During the Second World War, he was with the Royal Naval Scientific Service and in 1946 was sec- onded to the Ministry of Supply at Chalk River, Canada. He returned to the United Kingdom to become Chief Metallurgist at the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, Harwell where he was a pioneer in the development of nuclear power. In 1959 he joined C. A. Parsons Company taking over Managing Director- ship of their Nuclear Research Centre which in 1962 became International Re- search & Development Company, the largest sponsored research organization in the United Kingdom. With this company Sir Monty acquired and successfully completed many extramural research contracts from within the United Kindgom and the United States, the most advanced of which were probably the magneto- hydrodynamic generator of electric power and the development of a motor based on superconductivity. He also at this time served as Chairman of companies con- nected with cryogenics and systems computers. He took over Chairmanship of International Research & Development Company in 1968, resigning in 1977.

In 1967 (on its formation)he was appointed Deputy Chairman of the nation-

alized British Steel Corporation, in 1971 adding to his Deputy Chairmanship the duties of Chief Executive. In 1973 the United Kingdom Government appointed him Chairman of this nationalized industry for a period of three years.

A Fellow of the Royal Society of London and of the Royal Society of Edin- burgh, he has been awarded nine Honorary Doctorates mainly for his distinguished services to several major industrial organizations and for his contribution to their technological development, and a number of Honorary Fellowships from institutes of learning. He is an Honorary Member of the American Iron and Steel Institute, the Iron and Steel Institute of Japan and the Indian Institute of Metals. He is a Bessemer Medallist; Tawara Gold Medallist (Japan); Eichner Medallist, e t al. He is a past President of The Metals Society (1974-75), of the Institution of Metallur- gists (1975-76), and of the Iron and Steel Institute (1969-73).

He is currently Chairman of Policy Studies Institute; serves on the Board of GKN Limited and Cluff Oil Limited; is Chairman of Council of the Scottish Busi- ness School; President of Institute of Management Services; Pro-Chancellor of University of Snrrey; Chancellor of University of Stirling; and Chairman of a United Kingdom Goverment Committee of Inquiry into the engineering profession.

Sir Monty is a renowned accepted speaker on metallurgical scientific and industrial matters and has various publications or recognized notable material and distinguished lectures to his credit. He is Editor of The Metallurgy of the Rarer Metals Progress in Nuclear Energy Series, Progress in Nuclear Energy (Metallurgy and Fuels), and the Commonwealth Library of Text Books in Metallurgy.

ISSN 0360-2141/78/0911-0327500.75/0 �9 1978 A M E R I C A N SOCIETY F O R M E T A L S A N D

T H E M E T A L L U R G I C A L SOCIETY OF AIME M E T A L L U R G I C A L T R A N S A C T I O N S B V O L U M E 9B, S E P T E M B E R 1 9 7 8 - 3 2 7

Wins ton C h u r c h i l l r e m a r k e d " A l w a y s avoid p r o p h e s y - ing be fo rehand ; .it i s a much b e t t e r po l i cy to p r o p h e s y a f t e r the event has a l r e a d y taken p l a c e . "

THE EXPANDING SCENE FROM THE PAST

P r o g r e s s in c i v i l i z e d soc i e ty has been d e t e r m i n e d m o r e by the s t a tu s of i t s m a t e r i a l s t a n d a r d s of l iv ing than by i t s cu l tu re or i t s m o r a l p r o g r e s s (whatever f o r m s these l a t t e r may take or have taken) . The h i s t o r y of m e t a l s can be t r a c e d to 8000 B.C. and is t h e r e f o r e o l d e r than mos t c iv i l i z ing a c t i v i t i e s of man. If c i v i l i z a t i o n had been dependent on cont inuing r e f i n e - men t s of i t s e a r l i e s t d e v e l o p m e n t - t h e f o r m i n g and use of n a t u r a l l y o c c u r r i n g a r t e f a c t s l ike f l int s tone or m e t a l s found in t h e i r e l e m e n t a l s t a t e - o r if it had r e - l ied upon the s u c c e s s o r invention, po t t e ry , the deve lopment of c iv i l i z ed s o c i e t i e s would indeed have been l i m i t e d . The p r o g r e s s of man, however , is r e c o r d e d in the deve lop ing and expanding use of m e t a l s f rom the e a r l i e s t known p r o d u c e d - g o l d , s i l v e r , copper , t in, l ead and z inc and the p r i n c i p a l a l loys of b r o n z e and b r a s s - to be fo l lowed by i ron and s t ee l , a luminum and mag- n e s i u m and in th i s l a s t g e n e r a t i o n the bu rgeon ing l i s t of s p e c i a l i s t m a t e r i a l s , u r an ium, tho r ium, p lu ton ium, z i r c o n i u m and b e r y l l i u m , the s e m i c o n d u c t i n g m a t e - r i a l s , s i l i c o n and g e r m a n i u m , which b o r d e r on the m e t a l l i c , and those f inding the i r fu ture s lo t , t i t an ium, n icke l , c h r o m i u m , molybdenum, n iobium, t an t a lum and so on. The a c c o u t r e m e n t s of m o d e r n s o c i e t y - the f ixed s t r u c t u r e s of bu i ld ings and work p l a c e s , the mobi le s t r u c t u r e s of land, sea , a i r and s p a c e t r a n s - p o r t , the m a c h i n e r y and cap i t a l equ ipment of i n d u s t r y and d o m e s t i c a p p l i a n c e s - w o u l d not be with us without m e t a l s .

To take p r i d e in m e t a l l u r g i c a l p r o g r e s s is not, how- e v e r , to d e c r y d e v e l o p m e n t s in nonme ta l l i c m a t e r i a l s in suppor t of p r o g r e s s . T h e r e has been a c o m p l e - m e n t a r y d i v e r s i t y and growth in m a t e r i a l s d e r i v i n g f rom d e v e l o p m e n t s in the f ie ld of inorgan ic c h e m i s t r y (in which c e r a m i c s and c o n c r e t e might be c l a i m e d as of p r i m a r y m e t a l l u r g i c a l i n t e r e s t ) and in o r g a n i c c h e m i s t r y with syn the t i c s ( r ep l ac ing n a t u r a l f i b e r s ) and p l a s t i c s . But a l though the r e l a t i v e r a t e s of growth of t he se n o n m e t a l l i c a r e a s in th is e a r l y induct ion p e r i o d of t h e i r h i s t o r y may be f a s t e r than m e t a l s now, the inf luence of t he se newer nonmeta l l i c m a t e r i a l s has not been to r educe the m o m e n t u m of growth of the m e t a l i n d u s t r i e s . A s F ig . 1 shows 1 the now e s t a b - l i shed m e t a l i n d u s t r i e s have shown a c o n s i d e r a b l e and s u s t a i n e d growth ( m e a s u r e d in tonnage) s ince the be - ginning of th is cen tu ry and th is wi l l continue into the i m m e d i a t e fu ture , p a r t i c u l a r l y a s deve lop ing c o u n t r i e s i m p r o v e the i r m a t e r i a l lo t .

L I T T L E BY L I T T L E FROM NOW ON

What f e a t u r e s of the m e t a l i n d u s t r i e s s t r i k e one at th is r e m o v e f r o m an educa t ion in m e t a l l u r g y in the e a r l y 1930's ? Outs tand ing is the p r o l i f e r a t i o n ( c e r - t a in ly s ince the end of W o r l d W a r II) of m e t a l s which a r e now be ing p r o d u c e d and used on a c o m m e r c i a l s c a l e , m e t a l s which we re e i t h e r c u r i o s i t i e s a t the s t a r t of the cen tu ry or even jus t s y m b o l s in the P e r i o d i c T a b l e . At the tu rn of the l a s t cen tu ry , the m e t a l s of p a s t and p r e s e n t c i v i l i z a t i o n s (and a l loys

(Millions of Tons per Annum)

IIF _ n ................. n .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1900 0.08 0,871 0,479 0.499 27.69 0,0076 0.0003 0.0057 (1915)

1925 0.149 1.510 1.135 1.395 89.05 0.025 0,007 0.181

1950 0.187 1.850 2.060 3.187 186.39 0.149 0,0365 1.507

1975 0.222 4.005 5A83 8.369 650.17 0.70 0.276 12.693

Ratio 1975 2.75 4.5 11A 17 23 92 920 2230 1900

Fig. 1--Growth in use of common metals from 1900 to 1975.

bused on them) could be counted for i n d u s t r i a l pu r - poses on the f i nge r s of one hand; i ron , copper , t in, l ead and z inc we re the b a s i c m a t e r i a l s a va i l ab l e . But jus t the p a s t t h i r t y to fo r ty y e a r s has s een the deve lopment of nuc l e a r e n e r g y with i ts demand for s p e c i a l m e t a l s , the e l e c t r o n i c s indus t ry with i t s r e q u i r e m e n t for s e m i c o n d u c t o r s , the power i n d u s t r y needs to be met with b a s e m a t e r i a l s such as n icke l , molybdenum and t i t an ium, s p a c e to be s a t i s f i e d with i ts s p e c i a l needs and such s p e c i a l pu rpose m a t e r i a l s , a s l iquid m e t a l coo lan t s , t oo l s and so on p r o v i d e d as needed; and t h e r e have been p a r a l l e l moves independent of i m m e d i a t e m a r k e t d e m a n d s to f ind new m a t e r i a l s which m a r k e d l y extend the convent ional , e.g. m a t e r i - a l s for s u p e r - c o n d u c t i n g o r s u p e r - p l a s t i c app l i ca t i ons .

The P e r i o d i c T a b l e , however , l i m i t s expec ta t ions of any fu r the r add i t i ona l new m e t a l l i c b a s e s to be de - ve loped for any p u r p o s e , a l though i m p r o v i n g add i t ions to the por t fo l io of i n d u s t r i a l l y a v a i l a b l e m e t a l b a s e s by a l l oy ing and p h y s i c a l t r e a t m e n t s a r e s t i l l r e l a - t ive ly unbounded. No m a t t e r what publ ic r e l a t i o n s s p o k e s m e n may say in the i n t e r e s t s of c o m m e r c i a l explo i ta t ion , as p r o f e s s i o n a l s nobody b e l i e v e s that any wonder m e t a l is now with u s - m u c h l e s s round the c o r n e r . M e t a l l u r g i s t s a r e su f f i c ien t ly knowledgeable today to know that m e t a l s as a c l a s s have p r e d i c t a b l e g e n e r a l i z e d p r o p e r t i e s and to r e a l i z e that the p roduc t s of t he i r e x p e r t i s e have the i r l i m i t a t i o n s a s wel l a s the i r advan tages . M e t a l l u r g y today is conce rned now with enhancing t h e s e be ne f i c i a l p r o p e r t i e s and min i - m iz ing the d e f i c i e n c i e s to meet in p r a c t i c e s p e c i f i c a - t ion by c u s t o m e r s . Methods for ach iev ing this g e n e r a l ob jec t ive a r e methods which have been know s ince m e t a l l u r g y was a b l ack ar t ; for bulk p r o p e r t i e s they a r e a l l oy ing and what might be ca l l ed i ts c o u n t e r - p a r t - d e - a l l o y i n g (for the r e m o v a l of s p e c i f i c i m p u r i t i e s in c e r t a i n condi t ions have s ign i f ican t effect) , p h y s i c a l t r e a t m e n t s inc luding hot and cold work ing and heat t r e a t m e n t , a l l of which r e l a t e to c o n t r o l of s t r u c t u r e . Sur face t r e a t m e n t s too have the i r s c i e n c e and a r t . M e t a l l u r g i s t s have a l so ex tended the u se fu lnes s of t h e i r p roduc t s by combin ing the s p e c i a l p r o p e r t i e s of the nonmeta l l i c m a t e r i a l s with m e t a l s in some fo rm, e.g. th rough coa t ings , i n c o r p o r a t i o n (as in f e r r o c o n - c r e t e ) o r in c o m p o s i t e s . Since m e t a l l u r g y made s o m e f a l t e r i n g s t e~s to engage in s c i ence and i ts hand- ma iden e x p e r i m e n t , r a t h e r than a r t and i t s s e r v a n t t r i a l and e r r o r , t h e s e p r a c t i c e s have t h e m s e l v e s been i m p r o v e d upon th rough unders tand ing , but that p r a g - m a t i s m in d e v e l o p m e n t is s t i l l n e c e s s a r y is a m e a s u r e of the c omple x i t y of the sub jec t and our ignorance .

3 2 8 - V O L U M E 9B, S E P T E M B E R 1978 M E T A L L U R G I C A L T R A N S A C T I O N S B

THE STATE OF METALLURGICAL PROCESSING

Although the past few decades have seen considerable additions to the armory of metals and alloys, it would be difficuR to list half a dozen radically new develop- ments in the chemical processing of metals or in the established processes for shaping them-casting, rolling (hot or cold) extrusion and powder metallurgy. The use of oxygen to enhance chemical reactivity in the refining of iron to steel (and delimit pollution by nitrogen) would rank high as would at the other ex- treme vacuum metallurgy (and to a much lesser extent the use of inert gas blankets) in the processing of chemically reactive materials; and as an advance in fabrication technology continuous casting has certainly had impact, particularly for the production of materials in bulk demand.

These 'standard' process methods are not of course as they were. They have been modified with time in the direction of closer control whether this be of yield, dimensions or properties. This control has been exer- cised principally through control of structure, through mechanization, instrumentation and automation, through reducing the human labor content of production and the physical calls upon that labor and in substituting scientific and engineering skill for craft. Perhaps no more startling contrast epitomizes these changes than comparison of the hand mill of the early part of the century (Fig. 2) and the control room of the continuous mill of today (Fig. 3). Metallurgical processing has advanced by becoming bigger, better and faster rather than newer and different. Continuous processing (including continuous casting) has not eliminated the batch process; the totally solid route has not sub- stituted for the liquid metal route (directly reduced pellets are still melted for finishing operations); oxide reduction where established has not been replaced by halide metallurgy nor have electrolytic techniques overtaken the blast furnace, converter or kiln. Yet, these d r e a m s of change were be ing sought fifty y e a r s a g o - a n d a re s t i l l be ing s t r i ven for .

Who knows a l l that is going on in r e s e a r c h l abora - t o r i e s i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y ? But if one t r i e s to p ro jec t the fu ture by ex t rapo la t ion f rom the scene today, it would s e e m unl ikely that there wil l be any revo lu t ion in meta l - l u rg i ca l p roce s s or f abr ica t ion p r ac t i c e s over the next

Fig. 3--Control room of continuous mill.

decade or two. The bas ic p r inc ip le s and p r o c e s s e s by which me ta l s a re produced f rom thei r o res appropr i a t e to the i r t h e r m o d y n a m i c s tanding and f ab r i ca t ed ap- p rop r i a t e ly in r e l a t i on to the i r phys ica l p r o p e r t i e s , s e e m to be se t . T h e r e would appear to be no r a d i c a l innovat ion in m e t a l l u r g i c a l p r o c e s s i n g in sight; a l - though r h e o c a s t i n g or l iquid s u p e r - c o o l i n g may find s t r i c t l y l imi ted appl ica t ions in due cou r se . And if ex is t ing p r o c e s s e s a re to be s ign i f ican t ly upset , the i n d u s t r i a l impac t cannot be felt for ten to f i f teen y e a r s - a n d probably longer . New i n v e s t m e n t in the a r e a of p r o c e s s i n g and fabr ica t ion is l ikely to be in the e s t ab l i shed techniques . To some extent this gives a sense of s tab i l i ty to the meta l i ndus t r i e s s ince it is unl ikely that the indus t ry (one cannot except the indiv idual company) wil l be caught out in r epe t i t i on of pas t m i s t akes in an overs igh t of new t e c h n o l o g y - l i k e inves t ing in ope n - he a r t h fu rnaces when the ba s i c oxygen s y s t e m has been invented.

The r e wil l of course be changes in e m p h a s i s and i m p r o v e m e n t s in the de ta i l of mechanica l , chemica l and con t ro l a r e a s of p lant design; the re can be no doubt that p r o c e s s and on- l ine con t ro l s wil l a s s u m e g r e a t e r impor t ance as the demand for longer life and g r e a t e r ce r t a in ty of p e r f o r m a n c e by the consuming indus t r i e s wi l l r e f l ec t in i n c r e a s i n g and improv ing p r o c e d u r e s for inspec t ion . Such cont ro ls a r e a l r e ady to be noted in the cons ide rab le advances in the use of spec t roscopy for ana lys i s , t e m p e r a t u r e m e a s u r e m e n t du r ing p r oc e s s i ng , X- rad iography , u l t r a s o n i c s , magnet ic c r ack de tec t ion and eddy c u r r e n t s . The s e a r c h for new s e n s o r s and i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n for ana ly t i ca l and nondes t ruc t i ve t e s t ing wil l continue and extend this concept of p r o c e s s cont ro l . Combined with the deve lopment of m i c r o p r o c e s s o r s local or s y s t e m s in- tegra ted , this can only lead to g r e a t e r conf idence by the opera to r in cons i s t en t and economic p r o c e s s i n g .

Fig. 2--Hand mill in tin plate manufacture.

THE STATE OF THE SCIENTIFIC ART

But what do we know today about me ta l s that we did not know fifty y e a r s ago ? With the passage of t ime have we p r o g r e s s e d beyond the folk- lore of the a r t or m e r e l y added to i t ? My reco l l ec t ion of n e a r l y fifty y e a r s ago is that me ta l lu rgy was in the s a m e s ta te as e ng i ne e r i ng is today. This condit ion has been ex- ce l len t ly d e s c r i b e d by H e r be r t Simon in his K a r l Compton Le c t u r e in 1968. 2 " A s p r o f e s s i o n a l schools a re more and more absorbed into the ge ne r a l cu l tu re

METALLURGICAL TRANSACTIONS B VOLUME 9B, SEPTEMBER 1978-329

of the un ive r s i t y , they hanker a f t e r a c a d e m i c r e s p e c - t ab i l i t y . In the pa s t much of what we know about de- s ign and about the a r t i f i c i a l s c i e n c e s was i n t e l l e c tua l l y sof t , in tu i t ive , i n f o r m a l and cook-booky . In t e r m s of the p r e v a i l i n g n o r m s , a c a d e m i c r e s p e c t a b i l i t y ca l l s fo r sub jec t m a t t e r that is i n t e l l e c t u a l l y tough, ana ly - t i c , f o r e s e e a b l e and t e a c h a b l e . " F o r " d e s i g n and the a r t i f i c i a l s c i e n c e s " r e a d " m e t a l l u r g y . "

The e a r l i e s t tex t books that I r e c o l l e c t a r e those which we re conce rned with long d e s c r i p t i o n s of the m e t a l l u r g i c a l p r o c e s s e s and p r a c t i c e s of the t i m e . T h e r e we re s i m p l e c h e m i c a l equa t ions of the type Fe203 + 3C = 2Fe + 3CO to i l l u s t r a t e the p r i n c i p l e of the r educ t ion p r o c e s s e s , d e s c r i p t i v e r e f e r e n c e s to s l a g m e t a l r e a c t i o n s but l i t t l e (if any) s c i en t i f i c ex- p l ana t ion even qua l i t a t i ve ly much l e s s t h e r m o d y n a m i c unde r s t and ing e i t h e r of e q u i l i b r i u m or r e a c t i o n r a t e s . On p r a c t i c e i t se l f , much t each ing was conce rned with how to l ine an o p e n - h e a r t h fu rnace with de t a i l ed a n a l y s i s of b r i c k s i z e s , b r i c k s h a p e s and b r i c k p o s i - t ion; how to wie ld a shove l to fe t t l e a furnace; how to f i r e f u r n a c e s , the d i s p o s i t i o n of b u r n e r s and how to damp f u r n a c e s down; how to make r o l l changes in quick t ime , and long t a b l e s of the t r a d e n a m e s of b r i c k s , deoxidan ts and a l l o y s . Th i s is not to s ay that many of t he se a r e not of c o n s i d e r a b l e impor t ance ; in r e a l i t y they a r e . Books , b r o c h u r e s and pamph le t s f r o m i n d u s t r i a l compan ie s on the m e r i t s of t he i r p roduc t s if couched in m o r e m o d e r n j a r g o n a r e s t i l l a round as s u c c e s s o r s to those tex t books of the 1920 's . But they a r e not now taught to p r o f e s s i o n a l m e t a l l u r g i s t s ; they a r e i n s t r u c t i v e and for r e f e r e n c e for the t echnic ian , c r a f t or eng inee r ing s k i l l s e m p l o y e d in the m e t a l in- d u s t r i e s .

Of cou r se , in those days , s c i en t i f i c and t e c h n i c a l j o u r n a l s a l so abounded (al though s ince mul t ip l i ed by s e v e r a l f a c t o r s ) . The a r t i c l e s , however , were main ly conce rned with accoun t s of the e f fec t s of a l loy ing and hea t t r e a t m e n t on the p r o p e r t i e s of m e t a l b a s e s d e t e r - mined by s i m p l e t e s t s , t e n s i l e , hot h a r d n e s s and i m - pact ; a t ten t ion was pa id to the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of phase d i a g r a m s , the t r e a t m e n t s which could be dev i sed f rom the s t u d y of such d i a g r a m s and p a r t i c u l a r l y the a t t r a c - t ions of deve lop ing and exp la in ing m i c r o s t r u c t u r e s - d e n d r i t i c , p e a r l i t i c , m a r t e n s i t i c , W i d m a n s t a t t e n p r e - c ip i t a t ion h a r d e n i n g - a n d r e c r y s t a l l i z a f i o n . And of c o u r s e inc lus ion counting and iden t i f i ca t ion was a m a - j o r i n t e r e s t . But it a l l s e e m e d incoheren t , s e p a r a t e d f o r m s of knowledge with no g e n e r a l i z e d t h e o r i e s to p l ace phenomena in p e r s p e c t i v e or to account for t hem. P r o f e s s i o n a l was a t e s t of m e m o r y r a t h e r than a t e s t of knowledge or unde r s t and ing . And ye t these m e t a l l u r g i s t s of an e a r l i e r e r a w e r e not without in- s ight even if t he i r too ls we re l im i t ed .

In p r e p a r i n g th is a d d r e s s I had r e c o u r s e to The Metallurgical Sbciety Conferences, vol . 27, " T h e Sorby Cen tenn ia l S y m p o s i u m on the H i s t o r y of Meta l - l u r g y " held in C leve l and in 1963. ~ Al lowing for d i f f e r - e n c e s in j a r g o n the knowledge of t h e s e p i o n e e r s in m e t a l l u r g y was s u r p r i s i n g l y modern ; but even more s u r p r i s i n g was how m o d e r n t h e o r i e s we re t en ta t ive ly p r e s e n t e d in much e a r l i e r p e r i o d s than i s c r e d i t e d . F o r example , the concept of the d i s l o c a t i o n as a s o u r c e of i n t e r n a l s t r e s s in an e l a s t i c so l id a p p e a r e d in a t h e o r y of e l a s t i c i t y in 1901 and the s t r e s s f ie ld a round

a d i s l o c a t i o n was ca l cu l a t ed by T i m p e in 1905. If concept ion was in 1901 the ge s t a t i on p e r i o d was 27 to 28 y e a r s . P r o f e s s o r s of my s tudent days w e r e l e s s quick to p a s s on knowledge as i t was be ing genera ted ; today, the t e c h n i c a l p r e s s and a c a d e m i c ambi t i on a r e l e s s hes i t an t .

The c r y s t a l l i z a t i o n of e f f e r v e s c i n g s c i e n c e as i t a f fec ted m e t a l l u r g y and a s we know m e t a l l u r g y today, o c c u r r e d in the e a r l y 1930's . Th is was the p e r i o d when X - r a y c r y s t a l l o g r a p h i c a n a l y s i s of m e t a l s and a l loys b e c a m e the r a g e . You can judge the s t a t e of the sub jec t f r o m an e x t r a c t f r o m a l ec tu re given by W. H. B r a g g to the Ins t i tu te of M e t a l s s ix ty y e a r s ago. 4 "Copper p o s s e s s e s a cons t i tu t ion v e r y e a s i l y d e s c r i b e d for i t s a t o m s a r e a r r a n g e d l ike a p i l e of shot; s i l v e r has l a t e ly been shown to p o s s e s s the s a m e s t r u c t u r e ; the s tudy of i ron c r y s t a l s has ha rd ly b e g u n . " Th i s was the p e r i o d when d i s l o c a t i o n s were f i r s t mooted and subsequen t ly c o n f i r m e d as having a r e a l ex i s t ence ; when e l e c t r o n band t h e o r y was deve loped and when c l a s s i c a l t h e r m o d y n a m i c s was app l i ed to m e t a l l u r g i c a l m a t e r i a l s p r o c e s s i n g and a l loy ing . Aca - d e m i c e n t h u s i a s m sp i l l e d ove r into i n d u s t r y . P r a g - m a t i s m and da ta co l l ec t ion we re s u b j e c t e d to theory and f o r m u l a e b a s e d on t h e o r y . M e t a l l u r g i s t s were im- bued with the u rge to exp la in the phenomena and de- s c r i p t i v e knowledge of the b e h a v i o r of m e t a l s through s c i e n t i f i c unde r s t and ing . Models were c r e a t e d , ma the - m a t i c a l l y a s s e s s e d and put to t e s t in e x p e r i m e n t .

The in t roduc t ion of the p r a c t i c e s and techniques of the b a s i c d i s c i p l i n e s of p h y s i c s , c h e m i s t r y or mathe- m a t i c s was to b r e a k down the a r b i t r a r y b a r r i e r s i so- la f ing m e t a l l u r g y f rom the sc i en t i f i c wor ld . In the y e a r s which fol lowed the 1930's f indings in so l id s ta te s tud i e s ou t s ide the m e t a l l i c a r e a we re adopted or adap ted to exp la in m e t a l l i c behav ior ; d i s l o c a t i o n s and the e f fec t s of v a c a n c i e s and i n t e r s t i t i a l s in inorgan ic m a t e r i a l s t r a n s p a r e n t or t r a n s l u c e n t gave l eads to those engaged in s tudying the opaque m e t a l l i c s ta te ; changes in background d e n s i t y of d i f f r ac t i on f i lms or p a t t e r n s which had been c a r r i e d to a h igher deg ree of s o p h i s t i c a t e d a n a l y s i s in the s tudy of b i o l o g i c a l ma te - r i a l s than that to which m e t a l l u r g i s t s had become ac - cus tomed , were app l ied to ident i fy s t r u c t u r a l n i ce t i e s such as s t a c k i n g faul ts in m e t a l s and a l loys ; the o r d e r e d na tu re of a l l oy ing behav io r was r e l a t e d to the m e t a l l i c e l e m e n t s and a l though much of th is was p r a g m a t i c a l l y p r a c t i c a l , i t a l so had i t s a e s t h e t i c af- t r a c t i o n s in the concepts of the Br i l l ouen zones and in u n d e r s t a n d i n g of d i a p a r a f e r r o - and a n t i f e r r o magne- t i sm; nuc lea t ion and growth of c r y s t a l s w e r e shown to be a u n i v e r s a l phenomena; and the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of m e t a l l o g r a p h i c s t r u c t u r e s which could be v i s u a l l y i d e n t i f i e d - p e a r l i t e , m a r t e n s i t e , and so f o r t h - a s de- s i r a b l e s t r u c t u r e s with c e r t a i n p r o p e r t i e s which could be induced by a p p r o p r i a t e t r e a t m e n t in a p p r o p r i a t e a l l oys we re no longer c o n s i d e r e d to be ac t s of God but could be exp la ined and p r o d u c e d by man . P e r h a p s the b e h a v i o r of ca rbon in i r on and i ts iden t i f i ca t ion with the y i e ld point i s a p a r t i c u l a r l y e l egan t a s s o c i a - t ion of t h e o r y and e x p e r i m e n t p e c u l i a r to m e t a l l u r g y . To c o m p a r e a book l ike The Theory of Transforma- tions in Metals and Alloys by C h r i s t i a n pub l i shed in 1965 ~ with Metallography by C. H. D e s c h f i r s t i s sued in 1910, 6 i s to c o m p a r e the cha lk and cheese of the be -

330-VOLUME 9B, SEPTEMBER 1978 METALLURGICAL TRANSACTIONS B

ginning and end of the span of my y e a r s in me ta l lu rgy . Assoc ia ted with these theo re t i ca l d e v e l o p m e n t s - in

fact e s s e n t i a l to t h e m - c a m e the new i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n developed by phys ic i s t s and chemis t s for other pu r - poses . Meta l lography was enhanced by i m p r o v e m e n t s in opt ical in s t rumenta t ion ; the po la r i z ing mic roscope , the phase con t r a s t mic roscope and the deve lopments of m u l t i p l e - b e a m i n t e r f e r o m e t r y , a l l d i sc losed new fea tures and sub t le t i es of the me ta l l i c m i c r o s t r u c - ture; d i f f rac t ion by X - r a y s , the scann ing e l ec t ron mi- croscope, Auger spec t roscopy and nuc lea r magnet ic r e sonance fu r the red s t r u c t u r a l unde r s t and ing of the under ly ing a tomic o rde r ing of sol ids to which la te r neu t ron d i f f rac t ion added another e x p e r i m e n t a l tool. F ina l ly , f i e ld - ion mic roscopy al lowed m e t a l l u r g i s t s to see sol ids at the a tomic level. By means of r ad io - act ive tagging with isotopes, p roce s s and diffusion phenomena could be followed on the a tomic sca le .

A most s ign i f ican t deve lopment in i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n in the meta l s i ndus t r i e s was the opt ical e m i s s i o n spec- t r o m e t e r in t roduced in a r a t h e r p r imi t i ve f o r m - b e - fore the Second World War . At the beginning, the in- s t r u m e n t was mos t ly used in conjunct ion with a photo- graphic plate and the r e l a t ive in tens i ty of the s p e c t r a l l ines were d e t e r m i n e d by photocel ls . The deve lopment of the i n s t r u m e n t to i ts p r e sen t stage of r e f i n e m e n t occu r red when f i r s t the plate was rep laced by a photo- mul t ip l i e r and subsequent ly the i n s t r u m e n t was then m a r r i e d to a compute r so that now we a r e able to ob- ta in within 15 to 20 seconds of i n s e r t i n g a sample an ana lys i s of seven or ten components of a m e t a l ' s com- posi t ion which by chemica l means could take up to s e v e r a l hours . I n s t r u m e n t s based on X - r a y f luo res - cence, which is nondes t ruc t ive , pa ra l l e l ed the development of opt ical s p e c t r o m e t e r s p a r t i c u l a r l y in the non- f e r rous indus t ry . Fus ion ana lyze r s were f i r s t developed in the 1930s to m e a s u r e gases in meta l s and a re now at such a s tage that an ana lys i s for example of the amount of oxygen in a sample can be obtained in 1.5 to 2 minu tes .

In more r e c e n t yea r s both gas and paper ch romato - gra-phy have been developed into eff ic ient ana ly t i ca l tools and i n f r a - r e d techniques where ins tan t r e s u l t s a re needed. Now we have the m a s s s p e c t r o m e t e r which responds f a s t e r than i n f r a - r e d de tec tors with the capa- bi l i ty of ana lyz ing al l gases at once (CO and COz for example can be s imu l t aneous ly detected).

WHITHER NOW .9

I said of p roce s s and fab r i ca t ion me ta l l u rgy that there was l i t t le l ikelihood of any revo lu t ion in the next few decades . In the case of the sc ience of me ta l s , knowledge of which has enhanced our capaci ty to unde r - s tand and con t ro l the products of m e t a l l u r g i c a l p rocess ing , there is nothing that one can see in the p r e se n t r e s e a r c h scene throughout the world which wil l com- pare with the revo lu t ion in thought and p rac t i ce wrought in the 1930s. Metal sc ience and hence me ta l lu rgy has en te red (and has been for some t ime in) a cons tan t ly improving phase of s teadi ly ex t rapo la t ing development . We a re in a per iod of i nc r ea s ing ly dott ing i ' s , c r o s s - ing t ' s and i n c r e a s i n g jargon. Meta l sc ience i t se l f wil l become more complex and appl ica t ions more ref ined, but the s teps wil l be s m a l l for man and s m a l l for man- kind.

I would not wish what I have sa id to be cons idered a s p e r s i o n or to suggest imprac t i c ab i l i t y on the r e - s e a r c h e s now going on. I do not unde r s t and much of what I r ead in the f indings f rom the Enr i co F e r m i In- s t i tu te in Chicago, but it would be foolish to ignore the s tud ies emana t ing f rom this and like academic bodies much l e s s suggest that the seeds of someth ing s ign i f i - cant a re not be ing sown in these ins t i tu t ions . In his play " T h e Id io t" Dostoevsky wrote " M e n of genius have a lmos t a lways been r ega rded as fools at the be- g inning (and v e r y often at the end) of the i r c a r e e r s . " Many renowned men have said in the pas t that this or that would neve r have any p r a c t i c a l appl ica t ion or advance the cause of m a t e r i a l p rog re s s ; many a new theo re t i ca l f inding has had ma jo r i t y denigra t ion; a tomic phys ics and quan tum mechan ics were con- s ide red to be highly theo re t i ca l and nonprac t ica l , and look where they have taken us. It may well be that in the na tu re of things there wil l be se rendip i ty , acc iden- ta l new d i scovery which will r ad ica l ly change p rev ious exper ience and behav io r . But by def ini t ion one cannot p r e p a r e for this in ant ic ipat ion; one can only be r eady to accept it when it a r r i v e s . P e r ha ps even the c l ima te is not r ight for such d i scovery . Arno ld Toyn- bee said " A sc ient i f ic r e sponse r e q u i r e s the absence of a soc ia l or economic chal lenge so s t rong that it l eaves no t ime or ene rgy for anything e l s e . " P r e s e n t - day indus t ry and world economics may be d r iv ing too ha rd to the depr iva t ion of those who would look beyond the p r e s e n t .

My only thes is is that f rom my knowledge of what is happening in the advanced r e s e a r c h e s throughout the world, the re is no ind ica t ion of some new vas t r evo lu - t ion in thought or change which would u n d e r m i n e our p r e s e n t th inking and a t t i tudes towards deve lopments in phys ica l me ta l lu rgy . We a re s t i l l ignoran t of many f ea tu re s in meta l s but our unde r s t and ing of these in the immed ia t e future is more l ikely to be f i l led in by the bas i c knowledge of the me ta l l i c s ta te we now have r a t h e r than through some new f inding of ma jo r impor t . That our knowledge wil l i n c r e a s e in volume and na tu re the re can be no doubt. Today, a text book more than five ye a r s old is cons ide red o b s o l e s c e n t - p a r t i c u l a r l y by the authors of the new books; but it is sa lu ta ry to see how many chapters in the new i s sues of text books a r e m e r e l y r epe t i t ions of the text books of t en to f i f teen y e a r s ago. I do some t i me s wonder whether the new found i n t e r e s t in the a r chae log ica l pas t of me ta l l u rgy has a r i s e n because of the pauci ty of new things that one can say about the p r e sen t ! t

Yet, if one were to sum up the p r e s e n t s ta tus of phys ica l me ta l l u rgy arid ask "Whi the r now ? " it would be to identify theory and e x p e r i m e n t with a d e s i r e to unde r s t and and con t ro l the r e a l world and not pursue the ideal , to apprec ia t e the common oc c u r r ence , the extent and the na tu re of the imper fec t ions and faults in the c r y s t a l l i ne m i c r o - and m a c r o - s t r u c t u r e s of meta l s , to note the i r a s soc ia t ion with c e r t a i n p r o p e r t i e s and to r e a l i z e that these can be cont ro l led within l imi t s . F o r example , a l loy ing e l emen t s can be added to p ro : duce specif ic effects; g r a i n s ize can be cont ro l led and g ra in bounda r i e s can be locked; d i s loca t ions can be pinned; and nonme ta l l i c i nc lus ions or phases can be modif ied in s ize , shape and d i s p e r s i o n to produce bene f i c i a l effects through cont ro l led nuc lea t ion or as


s toppers to d i s loca t ion movement . With the aid of f r a c t u r e mechan ics even c racks can be accepted p ro - vided they a re of s u b c r i t i c a l s ize , shape and in non- dangerous s i tua t ions in r e spec t of s t r e s s pa t t e rns . Not only a re we aware of na tu r a l faul ts , but we a re now concerned with induced f a u l t s - t h e effects of i r - r ad ia t ion , and the faults induced by s t r e s s , s imple or complex, c reep or fatigue and e n v i r o n m e n t a l s t r e s s ( s t r e s s cor ros ion) and of c o r r o s i o n i t se l f . Where at p r e s e n t only t r i a l and e r r o r curves and expe r imen ta l enve lopes of behavior pa t t e rn s a re ava i lab le , it is a p e r s o n a l view that much of this (but not all) wil l be quant i f iable in the next decade. The ca lcu la t ing me ta l - l u rg i s t is undoubtedly on the way.

Since the me ta l l u rg i ca l world is the r e a l world, the r e a l world imposes i t se l f upon the m e t a l l u r g i c a l world . In what d i r ec t ions can we ant ic ipa te that meta l - lu rgy wil l be compel led to move to the end of the cen- tu ry at l eas t . I would like to comment on a few which could affect me t a l l u rg i ca l i ndus t r i e s and hence socie ty .

SOME GENERAL FEATURES OF THE REAL WORLD

The s t anda rds of l iv ing of na t ions show a c o r r e l a - t ion with the i r use of me ta l s . F i g u r e 4 i l l u s t r a t e s the per capi ta demand for s t ee l in r e l a t i on to the per capi ta income of the indigenous popula t ions . 7 It is un- ce r t a in whether the s tee l usage in the U.S. will r e t a i n i ts p r e s e n t level or reduce (if it does r i s e it wil l be a s m a l l asymptot ic i n c r e a s e ) . It is ce r ta in , however, that the developing na t ions wil l a t tempt to improve the i r m a t e r i a l s t anda rds which wil l be re f lec ted in a marked i n c r e a s e in s t ee l consumpt ion.

Accord ing to the United Nations, about 30 pct of the p~esent world populat ion is in the developed world, the r e m a i n i n g 70 pct in the developing coun t r i e s . F i g u r e 5 shows p red ic t ions of world populat ion based on s e v e r a l d i f ferent growth r a t e s of the wor ld ' s population. In Europe as a whole the average in - c r e a s e in populat ion in r ecen t y e a r s has been l e s s than 0.8 pct a year , while in South East As ia for example , dur ing the la t te r half of the 1960's , the popula- t ion was i n c r e a s i n g at 2.8 pct a yea r . The r e a s o n for this huge i n c r e a s e is that many developing count r ies a re pa r t way through the i r t r a n s i t i o n s with the death ra t e a l r eady dec r ea sed but the b i r th r a t e s t i l l to come down. Once the ma jo r coun t r i e s e m e r g e with low b i r th and low death r a t e s , the la rge pe rcen tage i n c r e a s e in populat ion wil l be modera ted . The appl ica t ion of sc i - ence in soc ie ty leading to a higher s t andard of l iving

Kilograms per Person per Year - 1968 700"

600- s ~ 0 ~ ' - - 500" Japan West Germany~

USSRO ~ OUn~ed K~g~m 400" Poland �9 ~ l t a l y �9 France

300 /

200" ~

100' Brazil ~___ . China Q�9 T~rkMey . . . .

' co

o4-~e . 0 India 500 1000 1500 2000 25'00 30'00 3500 AJ ,or, GNP per capita - 1968 (US dollars per person per year)

Fig. 4--World steel consumption and GNP per capita.

u~

4obo

P o

20-

15-

10.

)ulat ion in Bi l l ions( thousand mil l ion)

.

0 1900

Less Developed Count/ies

;onstant Rate o f Increase

High

5ro- growth

Low

Developed Countries

20100 2100 Year Fig. 5--Projected world population.

in i t ia l ly causes p rob lems in an i nc r e a se d ra te of populat ion growth, but once the demographic t r a n s i - t ion has worked i tself out, the ra te of growth wil l tend to zero .

The u l t imate world populat ion, as shown in Fig . 5 depends on va r ious di f ferent a s sump t i ons on the dates of complet ion of the demographic t r a n s i t i ons in developing coun t r i e s . In Ceylon, Hong Kong, Pue r to Rico and Taiwan, the demographic t r a n s i t i o n is complete or a lmos t complete and the t r ans i t i on is a lso well underway in China. Unfor tunate ly , evidence is lacking as yet on such highly populated and rapid ly growing coun t r i e s like India and Braz i l . For a va r ie ty of r e a s o n s - f o o d , cal l on r e s o u r c e s , pollution, the p rob lems of unemployment in an i n c r e a s i n g l y auto- mated world, the compl ica t ions of pol i t ics based on s i z e - t h e s m a l l e r the n u m b e r of people on ea r th the be t t e r the e nv i r onme n t of human su rv iva l . The evidence al l shows that the demographic t r a n s i t i o n sets in when a count ry begins to become indus t r i a l i zed and where technology and mode rn sc ience a re applied for the we l l -be ing of the populat ion by genera t ing a higher s t andard of l iving. The re was, in the developed coun- t r i e s , a gap of s e v e r a l gene ra t ions between the fall in the death r a t e and the fall in the b i r th rate; perhaps the t i m e - s c a l e in developing count r ies wil l be less as the evidence of Japan and Sweden ind ica tes . So that the u l t imate world populat ion wil l be as nea r as poss i - ble the lowest e s t ima te shown, is it then advisable by in t roducing mode rn technology into the developing count r ies at a rap id ra te , to has ten the demographic t r a n s i t i o n ? And if so, how?

RAW MATERIALS

The metallurgical industries are completely dependent upon available supplies of the raw materials which


Iron

Numinlual

[ ] Petrolum i I

L At Cummt I~tu of Corruption

I I

Iron i Nickel �9 Aluminium i Manganese I I Natural gas

Petroleum I

b. ~Ah Consumption Groog F.xpmmti ly at the Average Annual Rote of Growth

I I ! 100 200 300 400 years

Fig. 6 - - L i f e t i m e s of known r e s e r v e s of s o m e na tu ra l r e - s o u r c e s ( f rom Meadows etalT).

the i n d u s t r i e s p r o c e s s . T h e s e d iv ide into raw m a t e - r i a l s p e r s e and s ince the m e t a l l u r g i c a l i n d u s t r i e s a r e the l a r g e s t of the e n e r g y consuming i n d u s t r i e s , fue l s . The wor ld i s l im i t ed in i t s m a t e r i a l m a k e - u p and on the b a s i s of two a s s u m e d usage r a t e s F ig . 6 i l l u s - t r a t e s , a c c o r d i n g to D. H. Meadows e t al 7 in the book T h e L i m i t s to G r o w t h , how long the known r e s e r v e s of some n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s may l a s t . (The quant i t a t ive v a l u e s quoted a r e not s ign i f i can t . Opinions on these may d i f f e r . What is i m p o r t a n t i s the s e n s e of l i m i t a - t ion.) I t is of s ign i f i cance t h e r e f o r e t h a t the deve lop- ing coun t r i e s a r e the r a p i d l y growing c e n t e r s of r aw m a t e r i a l deve lopmen t and supply . They a r e a l so l ike ly to show the g r e a t e s t r a t e of growth in m a t e r i a l p r o - g r e s s , s ince they wil l wish t h e i r po ten t i a l i t y for h igher s t a n d a r d s of l iv ing to be r e a l i z e d for and th rough t h e i r l a rge l abo r poo l s .

A D e c l a r a t i o n and P l a n of Ac t ion p a s s e d at the UNIDO G e n e r a l Confe rence in L i m a in 1975, had as i t s p r i m a r y aim the r e s t r u c t u r i n g and r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of the w o r l d ' s i ndus t ry . Whe the r the deve lop ing coun- t r i e s r e a l i z e the full s i gn i f i c ance of the p r o b l e m s of ach iev ing t h e i r o b j e c t i v e s is one thing; but whether the deve loped coun t r i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y those with l i t t l e or r e d u c i n g n a t u r a l weal th , can s t age t h e i r fu ture in- d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n under c i r c u m s t a n c e s which wil l d i f fe r f r o m the pas t , i s equa l ly i m p o r t a n t and ano the r thing. How i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n i s to be b rought about in deve lop - ing c o u n t r i e s i s a s i m p o r t a n t a s the ex ten t to which i t is ach ieved .

With in a context of a d v e r s a r y p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m s but of n o n p r o t e c t i o n i s t wor ld t r a d e where the g e o g r a p h i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of raw m a t e r i a l s f a v o r s the deve lop ing c o u n t r i e s but where t echno log ica l advance f a v o r s the p r e s e n t l y deve loped coun t r i e s , i m p o r t e d technology in poor c o u n t r i e s t h e r e f o r e m a k e s the deve lop ing coun-

t r i e s highly dependent on e x p e r t i s e f rom the deve loped wor ld . One e xa mple of such new c o m p l i c a t i o n is where the p r e s e n t l y deve lop ing o r n o n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d coun t r i e s who a r e in p o s s e s s i o n of n a t u r a l wea l th demand that they b e c o m e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d to a f fo rd the i r own na- t i ona l s i m p r o v e d s t a n d a r d s of l iv ing. To ef fec t th is it may we l l be that i n v e s t m e n t in i n d u s t r i a l i z e d coun- t r i e s wi l l be c o n s t r a i n e d in p r i m a r y p roduc t ion of m e t a l s and even in p r o c e s s i n g . It i s of s o m e r e l e v a n c e and p e r h a p s s y m p t o m a t i c tha t in the r e c e n t p a s t the deve lop ing coun t r i e s have o f f e r ed to supply not raw m a t e r i a l s but s e m i f i n i s h e d goods in the f o r m of b i l l e t s ; and is i t p e r h a p s a s ign of fu tu re changes that the de - ve loped na t ions a r e t u rn ing to the p r o v i s i o n of m o r e s o p h i s t i c a t e d s e r v i e s , e .g . banking, p r o j e c t management and so for th , a t the e xpe nse of manufac tu re in t h e i r use of manpower ? Wi l l t h e s e p r e s s u r e s f r o m the deve lop ing coun t r i e s l ead to p r o t e c t i o n i s m in those c o u n t r i e s t r a d i n g in the W e s t e r n W o r l d ? What then wi l l happen to GATT ? And what wi l l happen to the laws of a n t i t r u s t in the U.S. when the e x t e r n a l c o m p e - t i t ion not of t r a d e but o~ raw m a t e r i a l s for i ndus t ry is j o i n e d ? And wi l l we s e e an upsu rge in t r a n s n a t i o n a l g roup ings with common cause of OPEC type a r r a n g e - men t s in m e t a l l u r g i c a l i n d u s t r i e s ?

To avoid these d i f f icul t p o l i t i c a l l y involved p r o b - l e m s and d e l a y the t i m e of p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n d e t e r - min ing economic p r a c t i c e , t h e r e wi l l undoubtedly, t h e r e f o r e , be in the f i r s t p l a c e a g r e a t e r and m o r e in t ens ive s e a r c h for raw m a t e r i a l s by the deve loped c o u n t r i e s to enhance known r e s e r v e s and w h e r e v e r p o s s i b l e in p l a c e s where na t iona l r e s t r i c t i o n s a r e not p a r a m o u n t . A g r e a t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of geology com- b ined with new techn iques for l oca t i ng r aw m a t e r i a l s a s b rought out by space pho tography , should l e ad to an augmen ta t i on in s u p p l i e s . One a r e a which has been u n d e r - d e v e l o p e d for many y e a r s but which wi l l a t - t r a c t i n c r e a s i n g a t t en t ion wi l l be s e a - b e d exp lo ra t i on , s ince w h e r e r aw m a t e r i a l s e a r c h and d e v e l o p m e n t is conce rned , the s e a s which a r e i n t e r n a t i o n a l wi l l avoid the p o l i t i c a l d i f f i cu l t i e s of n a t i o n a l i s m . And the so - p h i s t i c a t e d d e v e l o p m e n t s in o f f - s h o r e exp lo i t a t ion of o i l and gas may have t h e i r sp in -o f f s when the s e a r c h is ex tended to o the r raw m a t e r i a l s .

WASTE

T h e r e is one raw m a t e r i a l s o u r c e which has a l r e a d y had e n e r g y expended on i t and whose r e c o v e r y could p a r t i a l l y of fse t the need for new raw m a t e r i a l s . Tha t

Percentage Recycled - (Consumption also s h o w n )

Crude Steel ~..4 m. tonne I

Lead

Copper

Aluminium

Paper

Zinc

Nickel *

Thermoplastics

Excluding Stainless Steel

- )5 ,000 tonne:

~O,0OO t onne~

) 4 , 0 0 0 tonne~

9 m . tonne=

3 3 , 0 0 0 tonne~

B 1 . 3 2 m . t o n n e s

0 10 20 30 40 50

Fig . 7 - -Recyc l ing of m a t e r i a l s in 1974 ( sou rce : W a r r e n Spr ing Labora toryS) .

60


Separating Magnet J ~ ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ # E ~ - _ _ _ _ . _ ~ _ . - ? S - - - - - - - - - ~

.o.~ I r' _.!. ~ ~ " ~1 ' I rl ' Ground Level

r ~ . _ _ ~ k ~ V .N~/~// ~ Magnetic C l e a n i n ~ ~ r } ~ . .~ ,~"~ "~ ~11~. Jlk3~ :--JI I g

~ --~ = " ~ ~ ~ , ~ f : a l e r / S ; : : der

n ~ - ~ t h e ~ a e! ~ - - ~ 4 ~ patch Of Baled Tinplate Scrap

Red a s o s route of tot I r fuse. ~ m The Path of Non-ferrous Material The Route of Tins and other Ferrous Items

Fig. 8--Plant for waste r e - covery built by Heenan En- vironmental Systems to MRL Design.

is , of course , waste . Recyc l ing of waste 8 is a l r eady a fea ture of many meta l s i n d u s t r i e s - s t e e l , copper , a l uminum (Fig. 7 ) - b u t the development and enhance- ment of waste r e c o v e r y wil l ce r t a in ly occupy even more r e s e a r c h and development and g r ea t e r changes in col lect ion and d i s t r ibu t ion . F igu re 8 shows a sche- mat ic d rawing of a p roces s a l r eady en t e red into in the U.K. for the r ecove ry of the t in and s t ee l and any other ex t raneous m a t e r i a l of the common can.

Leaving out the spec ia l i ty m a t e r i a l s (whose p r o p e r - t ies can not be matched by the more common me ta l s and al loys) , the base meta l which will a t t r ac t the g rea tes t use in the future wil l be that which uses the leas t ene rgy in i ts ex t rac t ion and p roces s ing . F igu re 9 i l l u s t r a t e s the ene rgy r equ i r ed to produce the common meta l s in bulk use 9 and hence the r e s i d u a l energy contained in the i r reduced state as waste . The advantage c l ea r ly l ies with s t ee l as the m a t e r i a l with l eas t energy demand . In the context of m i n i m i z a t i o n of energy usage including the cos ts of mining, t r a n s - port , p rocess ing , f in ish ing and r e c o v e r y of waste , s t ee l wil l cont inue to r a n k high as a me t a l of soc ie ty although i ts spec ia l r e q u i r e m e n t of coking coal might c rea te a t e m p o r a r y hiccup unti l such t ime as subs t i - tutes for coking coal, e.g. p re fo rmed coke, a r e found or a l t e rna t ive ex t rac t ion p r o c e s s e s developed, e.g. d i rec t reduc t ion . And in the league of meta l ore r e - s e r v e s i ron l ies second to ch rome . Steel notwiths tanding cycl ic r e c e s s i o n s will be with us for a long t ime .

We have reached an absu rd s tage in soc ia l thinking where people do not want to develop or use our two main sou rces of e n e r g y - f o s s i l fuels because they pol- lute the a tmosphe re or a re a was t ing asse t , and nu- c l ea r fuels because of r e a l or imagined r a d i o - a c t i v e dangers or m i l i t a r y impl ica t ions . What power sources based on ach ievemen t of high t e m p e r a t u r e wil l be avai l - able to the m e t a l l u r g i c a l p ro fes s ion if these a re ex- cluded, nobody has said . It is doubtful whether foss i l fuel suppl ies to the m e t a l l u r g i c a l i n d u s t r i e s wil l be in t e r rup ted or development of nuc l ea r power thwarted. Me ta l lu rg i ca l p r o c e s s e s which a r e ubiquitous in the i r use of fuel a re more l ikely to gain suppor t than those which a re based on a s ingle spec ia l i s t fuel sou rce . Th i s is not to ga insay that conse rva t ion wil l be cal led for and there wil l be an undoubted s ea rch and development for improved ef f ic ienc ies . It used to be sa id of

the Chicago s l augh te r -house that every th ing of the pig was used except the whis t le . Of the me t a l l u r g i ca l fu ture it can equal ly be said that e ve r y ca lor ie of ene rgy genera ted in the meta l p roducing indus t ry will be r egene ra t ed , r e c u p e r a t e d and used f rom the com- bus t ion of the raw fuel to waste heat . The t e r m in fact "was te he a t " wil l tend to d i sappear f rom indus t ry .

The na tu ra l a l t e rna t i ve s , wind, tide and so la r energy, which a re nonpollutant , may lead to the g rea te r deve lopment of e l e c t r i c a l power. It is worth cons ider - ing whether this p r e s a g e s the g rea te r use of e lec- t r i c a l l y powered p r o c e s s i n g in me t a l l u r g i c a l proc- e s s e s in the next cen tu ry . An a l t e rna t i ve is a r e s u r - gence of nonpol lu t ing p roces s m e t a l l u r g y - the use of hydrogen as a r educ tan t e i ther of oxides of through halide r egene ra t ion , the hydrogen for these purposes be ing genera ted through e l ec t ro ly s i s of water . But whatever the development which finds favor, the in- v e s t m e n t in the ene rgy bus ine s s i tself , to take advantage of this , wil l be co lossa l and it wil l r e qu i r e two or even three genera t ions to make a s e r ious impact on the m e t a l l u r g i c a l i n d u s t r i e s by these a l t e rna t i ve rou tes .

ENVIRONMENT

A fur ther p rob lem of the m e t a l l u r g i c a l i ndus t r i e s r e l a t e s to the e n v i r o n m e n t . The i n d u s t r i a l waste

Energy GJ/tonne (xlO~J) Ore 330 [

. . . . . . . . o r e o r o

F:T~ Rubber

Fig. 9--Energy for extracting mater ia ls in the United King- dom (after Chapmang).


lands of the ea r l y i ndus t r i a l r evo lu t ion and develop- ments in more modern t imes have led to r evu l s i on by those of us (which r e a l l y means a l l of us) who wish to improve the qual i ty of our e n v i r o n m e n t . Tha t be ing so , the cont inuing pol lut ion of a i r or water or in fact of the env i ronmen t i tself through ugly and di lapi ta ted bui ld ings , will in the future be ca te red for r e s p e c - t ive ly by ant ipol lu t ion devices and by new fac to r i e s funct ional ly su i ted to p r o c e s s i n g and the housing of employees . The degree to which this is a l r eady a p r o b l e m is to be found in the la rge sums of money having to be spent to co r r ec t the f a i lu re s of the pas t . T h e r e wil l be no such repe t i t ion for the fu ture . Capi- t a l i nves tmen t in new plants wil l have to accommodate these ex t r a costs f rom the s t a r t in the des ign of new p r o c e s s e s and the i r equipment . It used to be sa id where there is muck there is money; today, where the re is muck there is a fac tory inspec to r r eady to c lose down the fac tory . The meta l i ndus t r i e s of the fu ture will be c lean places in which to work.

WORKING CONDITIONS

This cleanliness is also going to make itself apparent in the use and working conditions of the manpower of the metal producing industries. Their processes (even aRhough they are batch) are capable of producing large quantities of materials with relatively little labor and certainly much less manual labor than at present obtains. The ratio of output per man year in the metal producing industries will increase substantially. As example, in 1951 one-man year produced i00 tonnes of crude steel; in 1981, I000 tonnes of steel will be produced by the same effort. A factor of ten in pro- ductivity cannot be offset by an increasing demand which may reach three to five percent per annum. The one certainty is that the manpower of the present metal producing industries in the developed countries will be substantially reduced by the end of the century even aRhough the output is radically increased. And high unemployment nationally may lead to greater work sharing for continuous production processes and in such as the metallurgical industries may lead to the four-shift day instead of the present three, and in other industries to the four-day week.

There will also be a marked change in the pattern of the workforce. Manual labor will reduce by replace- ment with machinery and automation in the true sense of that word. A workforce skilled in the operation and maintenance of the new technology will have to replace it. Herein lies an interesting balance to be determined in the next two or three decades. Will the costs and quality of production of the sophisticated highly paid highly capital intensified manpower tend to retain the primacy of manufacture in the developed countries, or will the labor intensive less sophisticated lower paid manpower of the developing world gain the advantage ?

With the further introduction of skilled labor will be two further conditions of employment. The first relates to working conditions where the sedentary re- placement of manual labor will require conditions which do not lead to fatigue and the second that the working condit ions for al l labor does not lead to bo re - dom. As to the f i r s t , the health e l emen t of heal th and safety in indus t ry wil l take a more extended def in i t ion mean ing not jus t avoiding toxici ty or i ndus t r i a l dan-

gers , but e n s u r i n g that the less obvious i l l - e f fec t s at work, e.g. back t rouble , the common cold and so forth, a re not p romoted by poor e rgonomics or e n v i r o n m e n t a l de f ic ienc ies .

The impl ica t ions of the second will be that many of the sk i l led workers wil l not be confined to a s ingle c lass of opera t iona l duty but wil l be asked to do two or more jobs r e q u i r i n g separa te sk i l l s or changing demands; e .g . a per iod in the l abora to ry followed by managemen t on the shop f loor followed by product ion control all in one shift . This in tu rn wil l make demands upon educat ion and t r a i n i n g of the i ndus t r i a l technolo- gist not jus t at the s t a r t of his c a r e e r but throughout; it wil l lead to g rea t e r gene ra l i za t i on in educat ion and t r a i n i n g with s u p e r - i m p o s e d spec ia l i za t ion at d i f fer - ent t i m e s in the c a r e e r life of the individual .

THE TRADE CYCLE

Complicating all the general trends to which I have referred, there are the undoubted difficulties which many of us have experienced in cyclical variations in economic activity. In determining their future con- duct, most metal industries take account of these in short term considerations of policy. But will this be sufficient in the future ? Is the present "manifest crisis" in the steel industries of the world an excep- tional circumstance or a future rule ? Four important cycles have been identified in international economies by plotting the changes in various economic elements. There is :

I) the Kondratieff cycle of fifty-four years which re- flects in studies of the movements of wholesale prices~ securities and industrial innovations;

2) the Kuznets eighteen year rhythm relating to security prices, real estate activity and industrial en- terprise;

3) the Juglar 9.225 rhythms known commonly as the decennial pattern in security prices, wholesale prices and industrial activity; and

4) the Kitchen three and a half to four year rhythm in security prices, interest rates, business activity, wholesale and retail prices.

All these cycles of course interact with one another as shown in Fig. I0. z~ From this it is predicted that from the early and middle 1970's onwards we are in the down-turn of the industrial cycle, subject always of Course to the perturbations of the smaller cycle components and that there will be no return to truly boom conditions until towards the end of the century.

C a l c u l a t e d P a t h

crisis and panic crisis and panic o.~ danger ~ o ~ d a n g e r

. . . ~ - ~ x acute --o acute crISIS * cr isis and

e, . . ~ - - ' ~ and p . . . . . / ~ . ~ ~ ' ~ c pani c o~ , ~ d a n g e r ~ ' ~ ~ d a n g e r

I ~ " I " I N I i _ / , . ' l " t - I ; "%. 1900 1910 1920 1929 1930 1940 1950;I 1960 1970 1980 1984 �9

K o n d r a t i e f f Source: T J. Zimmermann . . . . Jug la r Geschichte der theoretischen

Volkswirtschafts-lebrs - - K i t c h i n m . - Compos i te of 1, 2, & 3 - Dr. P.E. Erdman - unpublished paper

Fig. 10--The 20th Century business cycle and crisis points.


What does this p red ic t ion , if i[ cont inues , imply for the m e t a l i ndus t r i e s , a be l lwe the r of the e c o n o m y ?

The cos t of capi ta l i nves tmen t in m o d e r n technology in the me ta l i ndus t r i e s is high and the lead t imes con- s i d e r a b l e - anything f r o m th r ee to ten y e a r s . If Kon- d ra t i e f f is to be be l i eved , the p r o s p e c t s should be that i nves tmen t wi l l be m i n i m i z e d ove r the next two d e c a d e s . The guiding p r inc ip l e would be to back economic sav ings whether in manpower , e n e r g y or o ther i m p r o v e m e n t s in e f f i c i ency by l imi t ing i nves tmen t to ex i s t i ng plants , but to subdue any tendency to p rov ide e x t r a capac i ty in an t ic ipa t ion of rap id economic deve lopmen t (unless po l i t i ca l or n o n c o m m e r c i a l con- s i d e r a t i o n s ex t e rna l ly imposed take p recedence ) , or whe re cos ts of ma in tenance or p roduc t ion due to o b s o l e s c e n c e cannot be offset in r e v e n u e . (Recal l that novel technology has been cons ide r ed unlikely.) Under such condit ions boom pe r iods wil l be met not by supply but by the r a t ion ing of pr ic ing . To cove r t hem- s e l v e s c o n s u m e r s wi l l tend to s p r e a d out the i r in- v e s t m e n t s so that they can make use of what they have fo r longer pe r iods and where they have to buy t he r e wi l l be a tendency to s e e k improved p r o p e r t i e s in the i r p u r c h a s e s of me ta l s and a l loys to make these last . The r e s u l t wil l be a ca l l for m o r e r e l i a b l e a l loys whether under e n v i r o n m e n t a l s t r e s s or c o r r o s i o n . H e r e again t h e r e f o r e , indus t r i a l innovat ion in plant and p r o c e s s e s wi l l be en t e r ed into with l ess urgency than might have been the case in the y e a r s just be fo re or at the approach to the boom of the Kondra t ie f f cyc le . Th is of cou r se would c o m p l e m e n t the p r e s e n t mood of the deve loped s o c i e t i e s to r e a c t aga ins t the waste ph i losophies of soc ie ty .

CONCLUSION

There can be no conclusion to this personal view of what has happened and what might happen. If there is one thing that can be said about science and develop- ments deriving therefrom, it is that they are never dull even in a period of undramatic development. But if past history is anything to go by, those of us who have been in the research and development end of the m e t a l s indus t r i e s s t i l l ant ic ipate , even wish for, a fu ture shock c o m p a r a b l e in exc i t emen t to that e x p e r i - enced by the m e t a l l u r g i s t s of the t h i r t i e s .

It is in the i ndus t r i a l deve lopment of the meta l in-

d u s t r i e s that the g r e a t e r changes to the end of the cen t ruy wi l l be fe l t . The high cos ts of new investment ; the growth of the developing coun t r i e s as c en t e r s of raw m a t e r i a l s and demand; the r e s t r i c t i o n s of raw ma- t e r i a l r e s e r v e s ; the cons t r a in t s on na t ional m e r g e r s ; c l o s u r e s and demanning to extend the e x i s t e n c e of e s - t ab l i shed companies ; the i n t e r n a t i o n a l i s m of producing i n t e r e s t s and the growing divide of in te rna t iona l compet i t ion p a r t i c u l a r l y in developed coun t r i e s where growth r a t e s a r e s ta t ic or r e d u c i n g - a l l t he se con- f l i c t s cannot but r e su l t in a change of i ndus t r i a l pat- t e r n unlike anything so far e x p e r i e n c e d . If in th i r ty y e a r s J a p a n can achieve what she has, how about the p r o s p e c t s of o ther coun t r i e s with g r e a t e r na tu ra l ad- v a n t a g e s - the Eas t , Af r i ca , the South A m e r i c a n States and coun t r i e s like Canada and A u s t r a l i a . But nat ional boundar ies cannot exclude in te rna t iona l p r o b l e m s - a n d the p r o b l e m s of the me ta l s i ndus t r i e s a r e in terna t ional .

In the second century M a r c u s A u r e l i u s in his " M e d i - t a t i o n s " wro te

" N e v e r let the future d i s tu rb you. You wi l l mee t it if you have to with the same weapons of r e a s o n which today a r m you agains t the p r e s e n t . "

I a g r e e his f i r s t p r e m i s e but would hope that we would show g r e a t e r powers of r e a s o n than we have as nations and as p r o f e s s i o n a l s shown in the pas t . I r e - g re t that I may not be h e r e to recount the wondrous ta le that s t i l l r e m a i n s to be unfolded. But then if I had been a gene ra t i on younger I would not have been here to de l i ve r the Dis t ingu ished L e c t u r e .

R E F E R E N C E S

1. Metallgeselschaft AG: MetalStatistics, 1965-75, pp. 62-64, Frankfurt, 1976. 2. Herbert Alexander Simon: Karl Taylor Compton Lecture, M.I.T., 1968. 3. The Sorby Centennial Symposium on the History of Metallurgy, Metallurgical

Society Conferences, vol. 27, Cleveland, 1963. 4. W. H. Bragg: "X-Rays and Crystal Structure with Special Reference to Certain

Metals". J. Inst. Metals, 1916, vol. XVI, no. 2, pp. 12-13. 5. J. W. Christian: Theory of Transformations in Metals, Oxford (Pergamon),

1965. 6. C. H. Desch: Metallography, London, 1910. 7. D. H. Meadows, et al.: The Limits of Growth, 2nd ed., Washington, (Potomac

Associates), 1974. 8. Private communication: Warren Spring Laboratory, Stevenage, U.K. 9. P. F. Chapman: Energy Policy, vol. 3, 1975.

10. T. J. Zimmerman: Geschichte der Theoretischen Volkswirtschafts-Lehrs; and P. E. Erdman, Unpublished paper.

336 VOLUME 9B, SEPTEMBER 1978 METALLURGICAL TRANSACTIONS B

the shape of things past and to come

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