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THE SECRETS OF VOTER TURNOUT 2018 AN ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL VOTE HISTORY IN THE VIRGINIA GOVERNOR’S RACE

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May 2018

Ralph Northam wins the Governorship by

by 9% !2

VIRGINIA ’17: WHAT HAPPENEDOverview

In the House of Delegates, GOP loses

15 seats

Despite polls suggesting a tight race, Democrats swept every statewide office for the second election in a row.

Democratic turnout

+16.7% !3

THE REAL STORY? TURNOUTOverview

Republican turnout

+0.5%

In March, Virginia’s voter file was updated with vote history from the November election — shedding light on the extent of Democratic enthusiasm and offering clues about which way turnout will go this November. The news was grim for Republicans. Compared to the previous midterm baseline…

Democratic non-primary turnout

+14.6% !4

THE REAL STORY? TURNOUTOverview

Republican non-primary turnout

-9.0%

Amongst voters who lean towards one party but who don’t participate in primaries, the turnout gap was even wider…

7.5% !5

THE REAL STORY? TURNOUTVirginia 2017 Elections

Compared to the previous midterm, that’s an advantage big enough to shift the margin of victory to the Democrats by

And compared to the previous gubernatorial race, turnout in 2017 increased the Democratic margin of victory by 5%. Statewide, that’s enough to explain nearly the entire shift away from Ken Cuccinelli in 2013 and Ed Gillespie’s Senate bid in 2014.

Turnout isn’t the only factor driving a tough political environment for Republicans.

Persuasion is an even bigger factor. That means Trump 2016 voters supporting Democrats this year.

Virginia bucked this trend. The fact that Ed Gillespie didn’t lose many Republican votes showed he ran the strongest possible campaign in a negative environment — but it wasn’t enough to overcome the Democratic turnout wave.

Turnout shifts provide a floor for Democrats in 2018. Republican survival depends on strong, disciplined campaigns that keep defections to a minimum, and using analytics to identify and mobilize Republican voters at risk of sitting out 2018.

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WHY IT MATTERSOverview

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MAPPING THE DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT ADVANTAGE, BY COUNTY AND PRECINCT

Two Virginias

• The Democratic turnout surge was not evenly distributed across the state.

• It was primarily concentrated in Northern Virginia, and in the state’s urban areas.

• Republicans held their own on turnout in “Trump Country” counties in Southwest Virginia, but population-wise, these areas of over-performance were dwarfed by Democratic gains in cities and suburbs.

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MAPPING THE DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT ADVANTAGE, BY COUNTY

Two Virginias

Compared to the midterm benchmark, Democrats outperformed Republicans on turnout by…

• 19.6% in Fairfax County (NoVa suburbs)

• 21.3% in Loudoun County (NoVa suburbs)

• 20.5% in Henrico County (Richmond suburbs)

• 16.9% in Chesterfield County (Richmond suburbs)

• 20.0% in Virginia Beach City (Hampton Roads)

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DEM SURGE: LOUDOUN COUNTYTwo Virginias

Pictured here: Brambleton, a fast-growing suburban community west of Dulles Airport, in the competitive 10th Congressional District.

Compared to the 2014 midterms, Democrats here outperformed Republicans on turnout by

38.9%

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GOP MINI-SURGE: SOUTHWEST VIRGINIATwo Virginias

Pictured here: Ridgeway, a rural community in Henry County, in the 9th Congressional district.

Compared to the 2014 midterms, Republicans here outperformed Democrats on turnout by

6.5%

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MAPPING THE DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT ADVANTAGE, BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Implications for November

• Democrats overperformed Republicans on turnout by at least 16% in 3 GOP-held seats — enough to shift the margin of victory by at least 8% if repeated in November.

• VA-2 (Scott Taylor): +18.7%, VA-10 (Barbara Comstock): +18.4%, VA-7 (Dave Brat): +16.8%

• But the Democratic turnout advantage was over 12% in every other district except for VA-9 — meaning that Democrats are energized across the board, not just in suburbs.

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TURNOUT METRICS BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTImplications for November

District 2017 Dem Turnout Advantage

Estimated Dem Margin Shift ‘17

Estimated Dem % Gain ‘17 Cook PVI

VA-1 14.8% 6.7% 3.4% R+8VA-2 18.7% 9.0% 4.5% R+3VA-3 12.1% 5.6% 2.8% D+16VA-4 19.2% 6.1% 3.1% D+10VA-5 13.1% 4.8% 2.4% R+6VA-6 12.9% 5.4% 2.7% R+13VA-7 16.8% 7.6% 3.8% R+6VA-8 17.7% 7.6% 3.8% D+21VA-9 3.4% 1.9% 1.0% R+19

VA-10 18.4% 9.9% 5.0% D+1VA-11 21.1% 10.3% 5.2% D+15

• The higher the share of college educated voters in a precinct, the more Democrats outperformed Republicans on turnout — especially non-primary voting Democrats.

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COLLEGE EDUCATION DROVE DEM TURNOUTDemographics

More College Educated Voters

Hig

her T

urno

ut T

han

Expe

cted

• In the most educated precincts, Democratic leaning non-primary voters outperformed Republicans by 34 points compared to the midterm benchmark.

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COLLEGE EDUCATION DROVE DEM TURNOUTDemographics

More College Educated Voters

Hig

her T

urno

ut T

han

Expe

cted

34% GAP

• The Democratic turnout surge was magnified amongst women in college-educated precincts.

• Amongst women non-primary voters, the gap widens to 38 points.

• Democratic women were more likely to turn out than Democratic men, but amongst Republicans, gender made no difference to turnout.

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…AND EVEN MORESO AMONG WOMENDemographics

More College Educated Voters

Hig

her T

urno

ut T

han

Expe

cted

38% GAP

• Democrats had their strongest turnout advantage amongst very low turnout voters in college educated precincts — especially women.

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MORE “SURGE” DEMOCRATS IN EDUCATED PRECINCTSDemographics

More College Educated Voters

Mid

term

Lik

elih

ood

to V

ote

Male Female

Democratic Turnout Advantage, by Midterm Turnout Score and Precinct Education/Gender

• Turnout exceeded midterm benchmarks the most amongst nonwhites, particularly emerging voter blocs like Hispanics, Asians, and those of another race.

• Female turnout was stronger than male turnout in every group except for Asians.

• And overall, black turnout outperformed white turnout…

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EMERGING DEMOGRAPHICS OUTPERFORMEDDemographics

2017 Turnout vs. Midterm Model, by Race/Gender

• The data broken out by party is even more revealing.

• Amongst Democrats, Hispanics and Asian voters were up by 30% or more relative to the midterm benchmark. Whites were up 15% and African Americans up 13%.

• White Republicans — the lion’s share of Republicans — were nearly unchanged in their turnout patterns from the previous midterm.

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EMERGING DEMOGRAPHICS OUTPERFORMEDDemographics

2017 Turnout vs. Midterm Model, by Race/Gender/Party

• Virginia shows us how bad it might be for the GOP — with a nearly 8-point shift in vote margin due to higher Democratic turnout alone.

• The key demographics driving this higher turnout? Highly educated voters, women, Hispanics, and Asians.

• Republicans didn’t do worse on turnout than they did in 2014, suggesting that they are no less motivated than in the past. Their problem is that Democrats are far, far more motivated.

• This pattern of higher Democratic turnout is seen in nearly every special election of the Trump era — with similar demographic patterns.

• What about New Jersey? The turnout shift wasn’t quite as extreme — a 2 point shift in vote margin — but the statewide contest wasn’t as competitive. In highly charged, competitive elections, the Democrats’ turnout upside may be greater.

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KEY TAKEAWAYSLooking Forward

• Having a good handle on what turnout is likely to look like in November is critical to the ability to forecast outcomes and allocate resources across an unusually large and volatile set of battleground states and districts.

• The “surge” isn’t affecting all voters, or all Democrats, equally. Good data about elections that have taken place in the current political environment is key. (The good news — we have this data.)

• Simply letting pollsters’ telephone response rates tell us may not be enough. Trump’s approval rating and the midterm ballot has improved in polls taken in 2018, but Republicans have continued to underperform in special elections to the same degree they did in 2017.

• Demographic and voter file modeling & analysis across a wider range of districts, rather than simple district-by-district polling, is an essential tool to keep your finger on the pulse and see if districts you didn’t expect to be competitive are coming into play.

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KEY TAKEAWAYS: FOR POLITICAL PRACTITIONERSLooking Forward

• When it comes to turnout models, we no longer have to guess. We know from voter files who is likely to vote in a year like 2018 — and how this varies across demographics. We can use this to improve the accuracy of traditional polling AND, at the same time, provide you with the most accurate possible list of targets to talk to.

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ANALYTICS & POLLING CAN WORK HAND IN HAND TO ANSWER THE QUESTION: WHO WILL VOTE?

Looking Forward

Midterm Year

Pres

iden

tial

Yea

r

Comparing Turnout Scores Across Elections

INTERESTED IN LEARNING MORE? Using accurate turnout modeling informed by precise data, we’re helping clients navigate a complex 2018 landscape with the industry’s most advanced polling & analytics.

Want to learn more about putting data and insights like this to work for your campaign or organization? We’ve made it easy to book a 30-minute introductory call with our team:

bit.ly/EchelonIntro

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ECHELON INSIGHTS

OUR JOB IS TO MAKE YOU SMARTER.We combine traditional opinion research, data analytics, and new technology to measure the

competitive landscape. Our integrated offering gives you fresh perspective, maximizes your use of resources, and helps you see what’s coming.

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MORE ACCURATE POLLING

Reach hard-to-find audiences. Test messages

in novel ways.

COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE

Understand how specific audiences move in real time, complementing traditional research.

ANALYTICS & TARGETING

Understand your audience at the individual level.

Match the right message to the right person.

• Using Virginia voter file data from L2, we compared individual vote history in the 2017 election for Governor with a midterm turnout model trained on 2014 data. The model provides probabilistic scores, from 0 to 1, that a voter will turn out to vote. Using such a model (as opposed to actual vote history) allows us to “carry forward” the dynamics that existed in 2014 and apply it to the electorate of today, taking into account new voter registration, aging, and underlying demographic and population change.

• We also compared the results to gubernatorial election model trained on 2013 data, but opted to look at midterm model, as this is the election of interest in 2018.

• Performance relative to the midterm baseline is measured by taking the total number of 2017 votes within a population group, divided by the sum of their model scores. Relative partisan differences are calculated by dividing the Democratic performance score by the Republican performance score.

• Since Virginia does not have party registration, party identification is modeled. Voters are further classified as primary voters based on their history of voting in party primaries since 2008.

• Have questions about this analysis? Contact Patrick Ruffini at patrick@echeloninsights.com.

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HOW WE CONDUCTED THIS STUDYMethodology