voter turnout in 2004 presidential election
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Voter Turnout in 2004 Presidential Election. 59.6%. Who Voted in 2004?. What are benefits of voting? What are costs of voting? 2004 Presidential Election US Census Bureau, Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004. Education. Income. Age. Race. Employment Status. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Voter Turnout in 2004 Presidential Voter Turnout in 2004 Presidential ElectionElection
• 59.6%59.6%
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Who Voted in 2004?Who Voted in 2004?
• What are benefits of What are benefits of voting?voting?
• What are costs of What are costs of voting?voting?
• 2004 Presidential 2004 Presidential ElectionElection
• US Census Bureau,US Census Bureau,
• Voting and Registration Voting and Registration in the Election of in the Election of November 2004 November 2004
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EducationEducation% reported voted
23.6
34.6
52.4
66.1
72.6
77.4
.Less than 9th grade
.9th to 12th grade, nodiploma
.High schoolgraduate
.Some college orassociate degree
.Bachelor's degree
.Advanced degree
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IncomeIncome
36.5 39.145.2
49.454.3
62.368.1
74.177.8 78.3
.Les
s tha
n $10
,000
.$10,0
00 to
$14,9
99
.$15,0
00 to
$19,9
99
.$20,0
00 to
$29,9
99
.$30,0
00 to
$39,9
99
.$40,0
00 to
$49,9
99
.$50,0
00 to
$74,9
99
.$75,0
00 to
$99,9
99
.$100
,000 t
o $14
9,999
.$150
,000 a
nd ov
er
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AgeAge% reported voted
41.9
52.2
66.6
70.8
66.7
.18 to 24 years
.25 to 44 years
.45 to 64 years
.65 to 74 years
.75 years and over
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RaceRace
28
29.8
56.3
60.3
Latino
Asian
Black
White
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Employment StatusEmployment Status
46.4
56.2
56.7
59.3
64.2
75.2
..Unemployed
.Not in labor force
..Private Industry
.Civilian labor force
..Self-employed
..GovernmentWorkers
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Who Votes?Who Votes?
• Socioeconomic Status (SES) Socioeconomic Status (SES) ExplanationExplanation– voters with higher income and education have voters with higher income and education have
the civic skills to understand the value of the civic skills to understand the value of voting, the difference between the candidates.voting, the difference between the candidates.
– Policy ImplicationPolicy Implication
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Educate & InformEducate & Inform
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Voter Turnout in Presidential Voter Turnout in Presidential ElectionsElections
8184 82
80
70
60
50
5760
51
6461 62
56 55 54 5450
56
50 50.9
59.6
4045505560657075808590
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% voting
50.2%
35.4%
49.8%
34.0%
50.7%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
% of Americans Voting in National Elections
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Voter Turnout in LA Gubernatorial Voter Turnout in LA Gubernatorial ElectionsElections
62.0%57.0%
80.0%
56.0%
1983 1987 1991 1995
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Vote for the Crook, It’s Vote for the Crook, It’s Important Important
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Turnout by Blue Collar Workers
90%79%
55%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sweden Germany US
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95
90
87
80
86
86
81
79
76
75
71
61
54
54
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Australia
Italy
Denmark
Bulgaria
Germany
Greece
Costa Rica
Portugal
France
Britain
Japan
Russia
US
Switzerland
Average % Voting in National Elections, last 6 election cycles
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SES ExplanationSES Explanation
• description or explanationdescription or explanation
• Alternative ExplanationsAlternative Explanations• Policy ImplicationsPolicy Implications• Political considerationsPolitical considerations
– Change the rules, change the electorateChange the rules, change the electorate– Change the electorate, change the Change the electorate, change the
outcomesoutcomes– Elected officials make the rulesElected officials make the rules
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Voter RegistrationVoter Registration
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Voter Turnout in Presidential Voter Turnout in Presidential ElectionsElections
8184 82
80
70
60
50
5760
51
6461 62
56 55 54 5450
56
50 50.9
59.6
4045505560657075808590
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Percent registered (Citizen 18+)
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0
HAWAIIUTAH
CALIFORNIAWEST VIRGINIA
TENNESSEEGEORGIA
SOUTH CAROLINAIDAHO
KANSASVIRGINIA
TEXASDELAWARE
ILLINOISNEW HAMPSHIRE
OKLAHOMAWASHINGTON
OHIOMARYLAND
VERMONTWISCONSIN
RHODE ISLANDMICHIGAN
DISTRICT OFMISSOURI
SOUTH DAKOTAMAINE
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Policy ImplicationsPolicy Implications
• Same Day/Election Day Registration Same Day/Election Day Registration (MN, WI, NH, ID, ME, WY)(MN, WI, NH, ID, ME, WY)
• Motor Voter RegistrationMotor Voter Registration
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Same Day/Election Day Same Day/Election Day RegistrationRegistration
% Voting 2004
58.3 58.766 68.9
72 7376.7
-20
20
60
100
US ID WY NH ME WI MN
•(MN, WI, NH, ID, ME, WY) 5 of 7 top states in turnout(MN, WI, NH, ID, ME, WY) 5 of 7 top states in turnout
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% Report Registered
25.0 50.0 75.0 100.0
.Less than 9th grade
.9th to 12th grade, nodiploma
.High school graduate
.Some college or associatedegree
.Bachelor's degree
.Advanced degree
Source: US Census, US Population Survey, 2004 Presidential Election
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% Not registered
50.5 51.046.1
41.937.1
30.224.4
20.617.8 17.4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
.Les
s tha
n $10,0
00
.$10,000
to $14
,999
.$15,000
to $19
,999
.$20,000
to $29
,999
.$30,000
to $39
,999
.$40,000
to $49
,999
.$50,000
to $74
,999
.$75,000
to $99
,999
.$100,0
00 to $
149,99
9
.$150,0
00 and o
ver
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Least likely to be registeredLeast likely to be registered
• Young, mobile, less affluent, minorityYoung, mobile, less affluent, minority
• Ohio- just adopted same day voter Ohio- just adopted same day voter registrationregistration– 490,000 college students490,000 college students– Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer
Brunner Brunner
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Source: Young voters,USA TODAY/MTV/Gallup Poll, Sept. 18-28, 60+, Black, Latino, Sep 13, Gallup
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Source: CNN Exit Polls, 2004 Presidential Election
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Motor Voter RegistrationMotor Voter Registration
• register by mail, applying for a register by mail, applying for a driver's license, at all offices that driver's license, at all offices that provide public assistanceprovide public assistance
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Impact of Motor VoterImpact of Motor Voter
• ““We find little evidence that early We find little evidence that early voting reforms increase turnout voting reforms increase turnout with the exception of VBM in with the exception of VBM in Oregon, and then only in Oregon, and then only in presidential elections. In midterm presidential elections. In midterm elections, none of the reforms has a elections, none of the reforms has a statistically significant impact on statistically significant impact on turnout….”turnout….”
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Too Many ElectionsToo Many Elections
• 521,000 elected offices521,000 elected offices
• National, state, local, school, library, National, state, local, school, library, referendumsreferendums
• ..\..\..\..\toomanyelections.xlstoomanyelections.xls
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November 2006
Reason for Not Voting (% of answers)
27.3
12.4
11.5
10.7
9.1
7.3
7.2
5.7
3.9
2.5
2
0.6
Too busy
Illness or disability
Not interested
Out of town
Other reason
Did not like candidates
Don't know or refused
Forgot to vote
Registration problems
Inconvenient polling place
Transportation problems
Bad weather conditions
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Why hold elections on Why hold elections on Tuesday?Tuesday?
• National HolidayNational Holiday
• Mail-in Voting Mail-in Voting
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Electoral SystemElectoral System
• US- first past the post system US- first past the post system
• Europeans- proportional representation Europeans- proportional representation
• ConsequencesConsequences– fosters 2 partiesfosters 2 parties– hurts smaller partieshurts smaller parties– No pro-life party, green party, or African No pro-life party, green party, or African
American party American party – 148 candidates in CA recall election = 70% 148 candidates in CA recall election = 70%
turnout?turnout?
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Lack of MobilizationLack of Mobilization
• 1876-1896, turnout in presidential 1876-1896, turnout in presidential elections averaged 80%elections averaged 80%
• Now, Unprecedented GOTV- 59%Now, Unprecedented GOTV- 59%
• Does it matter if you vote in New Does it matter if you vote in New York, Texas, or California? York, Texas, or California?
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Voter ID LawsVoter ID Laws
• GA- voters to present either a GA- voters to present either a driver's license or a state-issued driver's license or a state-issued photo ID 2005photo ID 2005– 35$ available at DMV35$ available at DMV
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Milwaukee Black Voters League FlierMilwaukee Black Voters League Flier
• ““if anyone in your family has ever if anyone in your family has ever been found guilty of anything, even a been found guilty of anything, even a traffic violation, you can't vote in the traffic violation, you can't vote in the presidential election. If you violate presidential election. If you violate any of these laws you can get ten any of these laws you can get ten years in prison and your children will years in prison and your children will get taken away from you." 2004get taken away from you." 2004
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FelonFelon DisenfrDisenfranchisanchisementement
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But…But…
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Is Internet or E-Voting the Is Internet or E-Voting the solution to declining solution to declining
turnout?turnout?
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Costs v. Benefits of VotingCosts v. Benefits of Voting
• CostsCosts– RegistrationRegistration– HasslesHassles– InformationInformation================SolutionsSolutions1.1. Easier registrationEasier registration2.2. E vote, mail in E vote, mail in
ballotsballots3.3. Group mobilizationGroup mobilization4.4. Fewer electionsFewer elections
• BenefitsBenefits– PsychicPsychic– PolicyPolicy
SolutionsSolutions1.1. Minority votersMinority voters2.2. Conservatives in Conservatives in
98’98’3.3. Reduce cynicism Reduce cynicism
about politicsabout politics4.4. Vote mattersVote matters
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Should we be concerned Should we be concerned that only 50.7% of that only 50.7% of Americans voted?Americans voted?
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low turnout NOT a low turnout NOT a problemproblem
• reflects contentment reflects contentment
• George Will “As more people are George Will “As more people are nagged to the polls, the caliber of the nagged to the polls, the caliber of the electorate declines. electorate declines.
• no difference between voters and no difference between voters and non-voters preferences non-voters preferences
• What happens with record turnout? What happens with record turnout?
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2 Recent High Turnout 2 Recent High Turnout ElectionsElections
2003 CA Recall Election 1998 MN Gubernatorial Race
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Low Turnout IS a problemLow Turnout IS a problem
• Voting pool is Voting pool is unrepresentativeunrepresentative of of nationnation– HMO bill of rightsHMO bill of rights vs vs
uninsureduninsured
% Reporting Voting in 2000
28.424.2
43.7
55
6467.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
18-20 21-24 25-34 35-44 45-64 65+
% Reporting Voting in 2000
56.453.5
27.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
White Black Hispanic
% Reporting Voting in 2000
26.8
33.6
49.4
60.3
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
8 years or less HS 1-3 years 4 years Some college BA or more
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Decline of Social Capital Decline of Social Capital 1970-19951970-1995
Worked for political Worked for political partyparty
7%7% 2.82.8%%
Served as officer in Served as officer in clubclub
10%10% 6%6%
Attended ChurchAttended Church 42%42% 36%36%
Member of Institute Member of Institute of Architectsof Architects
41%41% 28%28%
Entertained at homeEntertained at home 14 14 99
Bowled in a leagueBowled in a league 69/ 69/ 10010000
31/ 31/ 10010000
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TV Usage: “TV is my TV Usage: “TV is my primary form of primary form of entertainment”entertainment”
Strongly Strongly AgreeAgree
Strongly Strongly DisagreeDisagree
VolunteeredVolunteered 4.14.1 9.19.1
Letters writtenLetters written 1212 1818
Club meetingsClub meetings 55 99
Worked on Worked on community community projectproject
1.51.5 33
Gave finger to Gave finger to another driveranother driver
33 1.41.4