the road to disruption (australia outlook)

The Road to Disruption

Australia ICT Outlook 2013

Andrew MilroyVice President, ICTTwitter @andy1994

Agenda

Cloud Computing – Some Data

Telecoms Update

The Evolution of Cloud Adoption

The Shrinking IT Department

Industry Convergence

Key Takeaways

2

The Australia Cloud Computing market is expected to grow at 40.3% for the 2011-2016 period.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

611.5

882.4

1,272.1

1,808.8

2,495.4

3,330.0

US

$ m

illio

ns

CAGR: 40.3%

Australia Cloud Computing Market Outlook

Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis


Cloud Computing is witnessing growing traction in Australia

N = 100

Perception of Cloud Computing

1%

6%

7%

3%

5%

17%

16%

29%

26%

16%

41%

46%

33%

38%

38%

35%

26%

28%

27%

33%

6%

6%

3%

6%

8%

At this stage, the risks of cloud far outweigh the benefits

I believe that Cloud computing is going to shrink IT teams and make some jobs

redundant

There is more pressure on me from the top management to procure Cloud

services

Public Clouds are less secure than private clouds

Cloud computing is my # 1 priority for current/future fiscal year

Strongly disagre Somewhat disagree Neutral Somewhat agree Strongly agree


Almost a third of businesses in APAC today use Cloud Computing

N = 600

Adoption level has increased by 6 percentage points from Aug/Sep 2010. Hybrid Clouds offering a blend of Cost Savings and Security witnessed

highest adoption.

Adoption of Cloud Computing by Delivery Model

71%

10%

3%

16%

Not adopted Public cloud Private cloud Hybrid cloud

Australia Leads Cloud Adoption in APAC

Adoption of Cloud Computing by Country

Singapore

Malaysia

India

Hong Kong

China

Australia

68%

67%

76%

74%

87%

57%

32%

33%

24%

26%

13%

43%

Not adopted Adopted N = 100

Malaysia and Singapore have emerged as the next hot beds of adoption.


Enterprises Will Continue Investing in the Cloud

N =600

Decrease by more than 20%

Decrease by 11% to 20%

Decrease by 6% to 10%

Decrease by less than 5%

Remain the same

Increase by 0% to 5%



Increase by more than 20%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

56.2%

24.0%

12.7%

7.3%

4.8%

Change in Cloud Computing budget for 2012 over 2011


8

The Australian telecommunications market is a typical mature market with falling ARPU and single digit growth rate.

Australia Market Overview Overview

• By end of 2012, there will be around 30.5 million mobile subscribers in the market, implying a penetration rate of almost 133% and an user penetration of over 100%

• In the near term, competition between mobile operators is set to intensify further, resulting in lower mobile call charges for customers leading to ARPU decline

• The market is continuing to see a shift in focus from voice to more data-orientated services, driven by increasing smartphone adoption and facilitated by faster networksWireless Subscriber Market Share, 2012(e)

Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysts

Mobile Subscribers and Penetration Rate (Australia), 2005-2016

ARPU for Mobile Services (Australia), 2005-2016

Postpaid ARPU

Prepaid ARPU

Blended ARPU

AR

PU

($

)W

ire

les

s S

ub

sc

rib

ers

(‘

00

0)

Penetration Rate (%)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170

102030405060708090

Mature Telco Market and Collapsing ARPUs

Bandwidth Requirements

Emails

Internet browsing

Social Networking

Online Shopping

P2P File Sharing

Real time Communications

Smart City Infrastructure

Tele-medicine

Gaming

Tele-education

Smart Grid

Next Generation TV

Interactive Advertisements

Appl

icati

on /

Con

tent

Req

uire

men

ts

< 1Mbps 3 - 7 Mbps 100 Mbps - 1 Gbps

Rich Communications

o Increasing demand from consumers for virtual equivalent communication and entertainment experiences. For example, low latency in high graphics gaming.

o Demand from enterprises (e.g. SMEs) for cost effective productivity applications such as cloud computing.

o Demand from the public sector to increase administrative efficiency via smart city infrastructure.

NBN: Possibilities

ConvergenceBasic

Cloud Computing

High Speed Network Opportunities

Next-Generation Broadband: Coverage versus Adoption

S. Korea

UAE

Hong Kong

Japan

Taiwan

Sweden

USA

Singapore

China

Malaysia

Australia Less than 1%

3%

4%

8%

8.5%

14%

29%

43%

45%

56%

58%

FTTX Penetration Rate by Countries, December 2011

Will Australia’s AU$36 billion NBN Investment

pay off?

• In high penetration rate countries, it is marketed based on application such as gaming NOT speed.

• In low penetration countries, CSPs need to focus on marketing value based services.

• For example, 83% of buildings have fibre in Singapore, but only 8% have adopted it.

Source: FTTX Council

RSPs Must Focus on Applications & Services

Cloud Maturity in Business Context

Ad hoc public cloud use

Widespread virtualization

Shadow IT

Driven by BUs

Stage 1

Augment

Shifting key processes to the cloud

Monitored SLAs

Complex mixed IT environments

Stage 2

Evolve

New business models

Cloud is the norm

Business agility realized

Stage 3

Innovate

Whole industries transformed

Incumbents under threat

New business economics

Stage 4

Disrupt

50%+of firms

10%+of firms

5%+of firms

1%+of firms

Banking

Utilities

IT

Media

Retail

Healthcare

Smart Grids

Post PC Era

EMR and Point of Care Solutions

Branchless Banking

Industry Cloud Driven Transformation

Virtual Stores and more eCommerce

Content Streaming, eBooks

Cloud Prediction 2: Businesses will be transformed by Cloud Computing

The IT Department of the Future

Traditional Modern Emerging

IT Department Supports Enables change Creates competitive advantage

CIO Management Board level Leader

Staff Technical Process oriented Partner managers and service integrators

Focus Areas Service delivery and security

Business agility and managing change

Innovation and customer experience

KPIs Performance against budget Delivery of results Innovation

1980s 2010 2020

Advanced Lasers

Digital Manufacturing

Micro & Nano Manufacturing

CBRM Detection Technologies

Energy Harvesting

Smart Sensors

Wireless Sensor Networks

Algae-based Ingredients

Nanocatalysts

Advanced Filtration

Smart Textiles

Compostable Packaging

Superhydrophobic coatings

Enzyme Technology

Lightweight Composites

Cloud Computing

Virtulization

Semantic Web

Fabric Computing

Long Term Evolution

Genome Sequencing

Biosensng

Adult Stem Cells

Nanofluidics & BioNEMS

3D Culture Systems

Digital Pathology

Smart Pills

Hybrid Imaging Tech

Medical Robotics

Combination Devices

Technology Impact Across Sectors

Self-Driving Automobiles

Google has been working on this for four years now.

Automobile manufacturers are also researching including GM, BMW and Audi

February 2012 – Nevada passes first laws in the USA to allow driverless cars on its highways.

General Motors predicts the technology will be standard by 2020.

Convergence of different industries? Innovation ‘White Space’?

2013 Predictions

• Cloud computing becomes a strategic, business issue

• Cloud computing, together with ‘big data’ and mobility is driving innovation and

disruption

• Uptake of applications and services from NBN is key

• IT departments are shrinking. They will focus on providing business services

and managing processes

• IT buying behaviour will become more complex as decision making spreads

well beyond IT departments

• Technology driven cross industry convergence and industry transformation will

become apparent

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For Additional Information

Donna JeremiahCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+61 (0) 8247 8927 [email protected]

Carrie LowCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+603 6204 [email protected]

Jessie LohCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+65 6890 [email protected]