the rise of china ic industrystg7.semi.org/en/sites/semi.org/files/data17/docs... · • government...
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The Rise of China IC Industry - As A Global Ecosystem Partner
Lung Chu 居龙President,SEMI ChinaJuly 13,2017
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Outline
• China’s IC Development – Why?• Government Initiatives vs Market Forces• Investments• Opportunities and Challenges
– IC Design– Manufacturing– Assembly & Test– Equipment & Material
• Summary– Global Ecosystem Partner
CHINA330
Companies
EUROPE255
Companies
INDIA25 Companies
JAPAN414
CompaniesKOREA203
CompaniesAMERICAS
476 Companies
SINGAPORE
33 Companies
TAIWAN215
Companies
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Global Semiconductor Market Growth Rate Has Slowed Down…until 2017
PC
Mobile Computing,Internet of Things
Mobile Phone
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China Consumption/Demand Has Driven Recent Global Semiconductor Growth
Source:McKinsey & Company
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China: Largest and Growing Share of WW IC Market
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China Continues to Outpace the Rest of World in IC Industry Growth
Sales (0.1B of CNY) YoY Growth Rate
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Growth in all Segments
IC Design:Package/TestIC Mfg”
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But Dominated by Imports –Semiconductor: #1 Import and Huge Trade Deficit
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Big Gap Between Local IC Supply and DemandChina IC Market: Heavy Dependency on Imports
数据来源: SEMI 2016年8月
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Electronics Mfg: US/EU/JP→SE Asia→TW, ChinaSemiconductor Mfg:US/EU→JP→KR, TW, → China(?)
2000年全球半导体产能按地区分布
2015年全球半导体产能按地区分布
The Shift of Global Electronics Industry to Asia Pac
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Key Words Development Strategy
Design 1.Supply Chain Collaboration
2.M&A
Near Term: Mobile Smart Terminal and Network Communication: Mobile terminal, Digital TV, Network Communication, Smart Wearable and OSMid Term Term:Cloud Computing, IOT, Big DataBreak Through:Smart Card/Electricity/Transportation、SatelliteNavigation、Industrial Control、Financial Electronics, Automotive, Medical and Embedded software
Mfg 1.Capex
2.Advanced Node
Speed up the 45/40nm foundry capacity ramp up and 32/28nm line set up, 3D process R&D, capability set up of 22/20nm and 16/14nm foundry production capability.Excel the specialized production line such as Analog and mix circuit, MEMS, high voltage and RF
Pkg/test 1. M&A2. Evolution
CSP, WLP, TSV and 3D Stack
EquipmentMaterial
1. Key Equipment and Material Break-through2.Manufacturing Synergy
R&D in key equipment such as Lithography, Etching, and ImplantR&D of key material such as Photoresist and large wafer
High Lights of 2014 China Government National IC Development Guidelines
Source: SEMI 2016.8
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China National IC Industry Development Guideline- Highlights of Key Goals in 2020
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纲要的两个重点
Sino IC (Big) Fund集成电路产业基金
兼并重组M&A
Estimated Initial Phase amount: RMB300Billion (including local government)
Type: Equity Fund
Majorly for Fab capacity and M&A
IC Design: M&A under market mechanism
Packaging & Test: M&A and consolidation
数据来源: SEMI 2016年8月
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China IC Funds – Central & Local
About
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IC Investment Funds Enabled by China Government
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All Over the Map. National Fever in Pursuing IC Industry
4 Major Regions• Yangzi Delta: Design, Manufacturing, OSAT, Equipment• Beijing/Tianjing/Bohai Area: M&A• Pan Zhujiang Delta: Design, System and Applications• Center-West China: Memory and Special Processes
Yangzi River Delta: Design, Manufacturing, OSAT, Equipment
Beijing/Tianjing/Bohai Area: Manufacturing, Equipment, M&A
Center-West China: Memory and Special Processes
Pan Pearl River Delta: Design, System and Applications
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全球并购意向金额创纪录
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成长壮大
减少运营成本
传统行业逻辑
协同供应链、协同生产制造、消灭竞争对手
战略扩张
新市场、产品需求增长
投资组合互补
填补技术、产品空缺
中国政策
提高自给能力
2016年至今:并购M&A~1000亿美元 US$98.5B
China related is less than 5%
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1.0 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.4 4.0 5.4 7.3 9.8 13.117.0
21.2
0.3 0.6 0.8 2.2 2.8 3.9 5.2 5.7 5.06.6
7.57.9
9.7
11.5
14.3
2.0 2.4 3.03.4 4.2
6.48.3 8.9 7.3
9.39.5
16.4
17.7
20.4
22.5
2 3 47
913
16 18 16
2124
34
40
49
58
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China Semiconductor Industry Revenue(B$)
IC Packaging&Test
IC Manufacture
IC Design
Source: CSIA, SEMI China, April 2016
China Semiconductor Industry – Significant growth Since 2000
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Revenue Target of 2014 Guideline纲要2014年目标
Source: CSIA, SEMI
中国集成电路产业营收和目标China IC Industry Revenue and Projection
40.5
57.5
143
$ Billion标注:1.营收值为中国所有集成电路企业销售所得,包含IC Fabless、代工厂、IDM和委外封装等企业。2.2015年营运目标是超过3500亿人民币;2015-2020年均增速超过20%。
2.4
数据来源: SEMI 2016年8月
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Growth in Supply Chain Segments
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China Fabless
China Top 10 Fabless(Unit:RMB 100M) Global Top 10 Fabless(Unit: US$M)Rank Company 2016 Rank Company 20161 海思 HiSilicon 30.3 1 Qualcomm 15,4362 清华紫光展瑞 Ziguang 12.5 2 Broadcom 13,8483 中兴微电子 ZTE IC 5.6 3 MediaTek 8,8004 华大半导体 HDSC* 4.76 4 Apple 6,4935 智芯微电子 Nari 3.56 5 Nvdia 6,3406 汇顶科技 Goodix 3.0 6 AMD 4,2387 士兰微电子 Silan 2.76 7 Hisilicon 3,7628 大唐半导体 Datang 2.43 8 Marvell 2,4039 敦泰科技 FocalTech 2.35 9 Xilinx 2,30510 中星微电子 Vimicro 2.05 10 Spreadtrum 1,510Total 69.31 总计 65,135
*HDSC Revenue includes Montage, Centec、Phytium、CSMT、EmpyreanData Source:CSIA 2017
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China Fabless: Increasing market share
China wafer demand at TSMC, SMIC, UMC, and Hua Hong has increased at 28% CAGR in 2011-2016.
Increasing share at TSMC including at advanced nodes
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China Fabless Design-Still Lacking in Key Technologies
% by local fablessSystem Device IC Made in China
Processor/MCUServer MPU 0%PC MPU 0%Industrial MCU 2%
FPGA/DSP Programable Logical FPGA/EPLD 0%Digital Process DSP 0%
Communication SystemMobile Communication
Application Processor 18%Communication Processor 22%Embeded MPU 0%Embeded DSP 0%
Core Network NPU 15%
Storage Devices Semicon StorageDRAM 0%NAND Flash 0%Nor Flash 5%
Display and Video HD TV/Smart TV Image Processor 5%Display Driver 0%
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Global IC Mfg Capacity Distribution
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, November 2015
WPM
China IC Mfg Capacity: -relatively low among global regions -and mostly at mature nodes
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Distribution of China 's Semiconductor Fabs
Major New Fabs:
- SMIC Beijing B2 in operation, B3 under construction, Shanghai: two 12-inch lines; Shenzhen: a 12-inch line; Ningbo one 8-inch line
- Wuhan Changjiang Memory(YMTC) initiated in March 2016, 3 NAND & NOR production lines;
- Hua Li new 12-inch line in Zhoupu; - Intel Dalian fab converted into NAND
production- UMC Xiamen 12-inch fab,production in
2017 - Jinghe Hefei 12 inch fab under
construction, production in 2017; - TSMC Nanjing 12-inch fab foundation,
production in 2018; - Jinhua new 12-inch memory fab
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The Race: Foundry Technology Nodes
Courtesy, Prof Wei Tsinghua U
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Global Top 10 Pkg/Test Companies 全球前10大封测厂
数据来源: IC Insight, 2017年4月
Amount in $US M
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2016 公司名称 总部 2016年销售额 2015年销售额 2016/2015增长率
1 江苏新潮集团 JCET 中国 193* 92.2 109.3
2 南通华达微电子NFME 中国 135.7** 56.4 140.6
3 威讯联合半导体(北京)有限公司
美国 83 62 33.9
4 华天科技 HuaTian 中国 66.6 47.8 39.3
5 恩智浦半导体公司 美国 58.9 54.2 8.7
6 英特尔 Intel 美国 39.7 40.5 -1.9
7 海太半导体 HiTech 中国 32.4 37.2 -12.9
8 上海凯虹 中国 30.4 30.1 1.0
9 安靠 Amkor 美国 30.1 29.5 2.0
10 盛碟半导体 Sandisk 中国 27.6 26.8 3.3
China Top 10 Pkg/Test Companies 中国十大封测厂2016
数据来源: CIA, SEMi整理 2016年8月
Amount in RMB 亿
*包括星科金朋销售数据**包括AMD苏州,马来西亚工厂销售数据
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Equipment and Material 半导体设备材料产业
Material 原材料及配套
设备 Equipment 367亿美元 US$36.7B
434亿美元, US$43.4B
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2015年全球十大半导体设备厂商
数据来源: Gartner, 2016
公司 公司 2015 营收(英文名) (中文名) (单位:亿美元)
1 Applied Materials 应用材料沉积、刻蚀、离子注入
、化学机械研磨等64.2 19.1
2 Lam Research 泛林 刻蚀、沉积、清洗等 48.1 14.3
3 ASML 阿斯麦 光刻设备 47.3 14.1
4 Tokyo Electron 东电电子沉积、刻蚀、匀胶显影
设备等43.3 12.9
5 KLA-Tencor 科天 硅片检测、测量设备 20.4 6.1
6Screen Semiconductor
Solutions迪恩士 刻蚀、清洗设备 9.7 2.9
7Hitachi High-Technologies
日立高新沉积、刻蚀、检测设备
、封装贴片设备等7.9 2.3
8 Nikon 尼康 光刻设备 7.2 2.2
9 Hitachi Kokusai日立国际
电气热处理设备 6.3 1.9
10 ASM International 先域 沉积、封装键合设备等 5.8 1.7
其它 75.8 22.5
2015 排名
主要产品领域2015 市场份额
(%)
China Local Supplier: <1-2% Market Share
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Wafer
5%
Shin-Etsu(JPN)
Sumco(JPN)
Siltronic(GER)
Sunedison(US)SAS(TW)
GRINMJRH
Wafer WorksSimgui
GuoShengZingSemi
Photoresist
8%
TOK(JPN)
Shipley(US)JSR(JPN)
DOW(US)Shin-Etsu(JPN)
KempurRuiHong
Gas
10%
Air Liquid(FRA)Praxair(US)Linde(GER)
Air Product(US)Matheson(GER)
718th research institute of CSIC
Huate GasNata Opto-
electronic Material
SputterMaterials
6%
JME(US)LMC(GER)
Tosoh SMD(JPN)
Japan Energy(JPN)
KFMIGRIKIN
CMP Slurries
9%
DOW(US)3M(US)
Cabot(US)Toray(JPN)
AnjiXinanna
Overview of Global IC Materials Suppliers
Global
ChinaMainland
ChinaMarketShare
China Local Supplier: <1% Market Share
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With Limited Competitiveness, China IC Industry Faces Challenges and Opportunities
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What’s Ahead? China Semiconductor Industry
• Fast Growing Application Market Opportunities– Mobile computing + 5G (Huawei)– AI, AR/VR, IoT, Cloud Computing, Big Data
(BAT)(WeChat)– Industrial 4.0、Smart Mfg 2025、IIot– New Energy, Smart (electic)Automotive– Smart Medical, Smart City, Smart Grid
• China’s Transition from Low-cost manufacturing to solution provider, then to innovation.
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China HSR –High Speed Rail
Japan
Europe
Europe: 6100KMJapan: 2800KmChina: 19000Km 30000KM
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CompletedConstructionPlanned, 2020
±500kV transimission line: 16,±800kV and higherUltra High-V transimission line:7,Total Capacity: 100GW,Distance: 300,000KM。
China Smart Grid
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Smart (Electric) Vehicles
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Summary
• Why? – Concerns of National Security and Trade Deficit– Market Driven
• China National IC Development Guideline and Big Fund– Necessary, Just Timely, or Maybe too late?
• Opportunities and Challenges– Design/Fabless: Mostly Low-Margin Consumer Segments– Mfg: 2-3 Generations Behind. Over capacity? Sustainability? – Assembly/Test: Improving competitiveness thru R&D and M&A– Equipment/Material: Dominated by US/JP/EU.
• 13-5 Plan and Beyond, Not a “Threat” yet. – China as a Global Ecosystem Partner– Opportunities for US and global players.– Low-Cost Mfg -> Solution -> Innovation
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SEMICON China 2018 March 14-16, 2018