the renapripartial-equilibrium initiative training ... · institute (iapri), zambia • department...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
TheReNAPRI Partial-equilibriuminitiative
Trainingworkshop– MalawiProf.FerdiMeyer
ReNAPRI – BFAP,SouthAfrica
![Page 2: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
ReNAPRI
• RegionalNetworkofAgriculturalPolicyResearchInstitutes(ReNAPRI)– Offersauniquesolutions:
• African-led,African-driveninitiativewithaground-upapproachtopolicyresearch
– Membershipincludesexistingpolicyresearchinstituteswithaproventrack-recordofpolicyadvisementwithintheirrespectivecountries.
![Page 3: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
• InstituteforSocialandEconomicResearch,UniversityofKinshasa;DemocraticRepublicofCongo;
• Tegemeo InstituteofAgriculturalPolicyandDevelopment,Egerton University–Kenya
• CentreforAgriculturalResearchandDevelopment,Bunda College,Malawi;
• CEPPAG,UniversityofEduardoMondlane,Mozambique
• BureauforFoodandAgriculturalPolicy(BFAP)-UniversityofPretoria&Stellenbosch,SouthAfrica;
• DepartmentofAgricultureEconomicsandAgribusiness- Sokoine UniversityofAgriculture,UnitedRepublicofTanzania;
• IndabaAgriculturePolicyResearchInstitute(IAPRI),Zambia
• DepartmentofAgricultureEconomicsMakarere University,Uganda
• DepartmentofAgricultureEconomicsandExtension,UniversityofZimbabwe,Zimbabwe
ReNAPRITakingaregionalperspectiveonanalysingtheimpactofagriculturalandtradepoliciesanddrivers
Supportpolicyanalysisanddecision-makingbypublicandprivatesector
![Page 4: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
ThePEmodellinginitiative• Ongoingsince2012• Varioussourcesoffundingsupportingtheinitiative– EU,BMGF,USAID(FSPIL),FoodTrade,Univ.Pretoria,MichiganStateUniv.,Univ.ofMissourietc.
• Countrymoduleshosted&updatedbyReNAPRIinstitutes
• 3Regionalconferences(Lusaka,Mozambique,Nairobi)and30Nov2017……CapeTown!!
![Page 5: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
ReNAPRI PEcoverageSA ZAM MOZ MAL KEN TAN DRC UGD ZIM
Maize X x x x x x x x x
Wheat X x x x x
Rice X x x
Soya X x x
Sugar X x x
![Page 6: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This presentation is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the Feed the Future initiative, the Feed the Future Innovation Lab Food Security Policy, grant No. RC102750-UP Sub-Award.
The contents of this presentation are the responsibility of the study authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States government.
FeedtheFutureInnovationLabforFoodSecurityPolicy
RENAPRI PE TRAINING
![Page 7: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
PETraining
Sokoine - Morogoro,Tanzania,July2015
FAPRIMissouri,USA,July2016
CEPPAGMaputo,Mozambique,Aug2016
![Page 8: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Startingwithanendinmind!!
![Page 9: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Millionpe
ople
Zimbabwe(14%)
Zambia(16%)
Uganda(16%)
Tanzania(10%)
SouthAfrica(9%)
Mozambique14%)
Malawi(15%)
Kenya(15%)
DRC(16%)
BaselineAssumptions:PopulationPopulationGrowth Growthto2020
Source:IMF,2016
![Page 10: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Baselineassumptions:GrowthGrowthinrealGDP:Outlookvs.PastDecade
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
PerCapita
PastDecade Outlook
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
Percen
tage
Total
PastDecade Outlook
Source:IMF,2016
![Page 11: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
MaizeOutlook
• Kenya• Tanzania• Uganda
• Malawi• Mozambique• SouthAfrica
• Zambia• Zimbabwe• DRC
Production,TradeandPrices
![Page 12: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Demand:Maize
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Kgperca
pitaperyear
2008-2010 2013-2015 2020
Percapitamaizeconsumption
TotalFoodDemand:4.6Milton additionalmaizeby2020
![Page 13: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Significantgrowthinfooduse
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Thou
sand
tons Maize Wheat
Growthinconsumption:2020vs.2013-2015
Maize(9countries)=4.6MiltonsWheat(4countries)=1.4Miltons
![Page 14: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
RegionalMaizeConsumptionTotalFeedConsumptionFeedconsumption
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Milliontons
TotalRegionalFeedConsumption SouthAfrica
![Page 15: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
ProductiongrowthAvg.annualgrowthPastDecade(2004-
2015)
Avg.annualgrowthOutlook(2016-2020)
AbsoluteGrowthMaizeareaplanted
AbsoluteGrowthYields
AreaExpansion
YieldGrowth
AreaExpansion
YieldGrowth
2012-2014‘000ha
2020‘000ha
2012-2014t/ha
2020t/ha
SouthAfrica -1.5% 2.4% -0.25% 8.52% 3158 2651 4.24t/ha 5.03t/ha
Zambia 6.1% 3.6% 1.58% 5.13% 1335 1453 2.19t/ha 2.53t/ha
Kenya 2.6% 0.7% 1.96% 1.27% 2132 2358 1.70t/ha 1.85t/ha
Tanzania 5.4% 2.5% 1.26% 2.89% 4180 4158 1.37t/ha 1.73t/ha
Malawi -0.3% 2.2% -0.16% 6.94% 1363 1444 2.19t/ha 2.46t/ha
Mozambique 0.7% -0.4% 3.65% 3.98% 1615 1618 1.06t/ha 1.14t/ha
DRC 1.6% 0.1% 3.01% 0.29% 1467 1842 0.83t/ha 0.88t/ha
Uganda 3.8% 5% 2.32% 2.72% 1098 1264 2.50t/ha 2.88t/ha
Zimbabwe -0.5% -1.7% -0.80% 14.90% 1579 1499 0.68t/ha 0.82t/ha
![Page 16: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
BaselinePrices:Maize
![Page 17: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
MaizeTrade:RegionalOverview
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TotalNetTrade SouthAfrica Kenya ZambiaTanzania Malawi Mozambique DRCUganda Zimbabwe
![Page 18: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Impactof2015/16drought
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
US/ton
BaselineOct2015
ScenarioFeb2016
Actual2016
Projected%
Actual%
![Page 19: The ReNAPRIPartial-equilibrium initiative Training ... · Institute (IAPRI), Zambia • Department of Agriculture Economics MakarereUniversity, Uganda ... This presentation is made](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051605/601162ea011ec1516c79b1fc/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Thankyou!
www.renapri.org