the railway market in africa and the middle east · the railway market in africa and the middle...

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© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • copy «Unternehmen», duplication prohibited 1

2018

THE RAILWAY MARKET IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

Facts, Figures, Players, Trends



THE RAILWAY MARKET IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

Facts, Figures, Players, Trends Available in English from 30th May 2018. Now you can also purchase the data annex in Excel format (see overview data sheets on page no. 6 for more information). Although there are no physical links between or across them, the railway markets of Africa and the Middle East share a number of characteristics and trends. Core markets in the region are part of major international transport corridors to Asia and Europe. In this context, they have become subject to substantial spending from interested parties. Major network enhancements and upgrades and rolling stock procurements followed. After the downturn on the global commodity markets, however, several dedicated freight-only railway developments have been postponed. In parallel, governments and railway companies have been promoting passenger rail transport in and between conurbations. All these trends together define a highly interesting landscape of market structures and business opportunities. Against this background, the present study draws a coherent and up-to-date picture of the market’s current landscape and its major development trends – based on current market data collected in our database and processed by our experts, applying our proven and tested forecast methodology and thus enabling sustainable strategic decisions. In concrete terms, the market study “The Railway Market in Africa and the Middle East” provides:

– An overview of the region’s political, demographic and economic situation, its opportunities and threats

– An independent and differentiated view on current foreign investment, related national and international policies and strategies

– A special focus on the recent and future development of Sino-African relations

– An analysis and forecast of the transport markets for freight and passenger mainline services and urban rail transit

– The present inventories, developments and market volumes for infrastructure, system technology and rolling stock for mainline railways and urban rail transit

– Listings of recent, current and known future infrastructure projects and rolling stock procurements

The annex contains approx. 40 fact sheets presenting the major present and future corridors and etworks for passenger and freight rail services, as well as of transport companies, infrastructure managers, investors, and manufacturers.

Explore our additional offer of the data annex in Excel format

– All in this study displayed figures and graphs concerning markets, installed bases and deliveries are transparently and comprehensively available

– Apply the data sets for an individual evaluation and configuration or to access and supplement available market data

SCI Verkehr GmbH is an independent consultancy company which specialises in the technology and economics of transport. We have close connections to the rail industry, with consultants in a wide range of specialist fields. We have an extensive network of experts in Germany and abroad, and we



specialise in market and strategy aspects for the mobility sector. Our activities focus on companies in the transport and rail industries, logistics, public and private transport companies and transport and economics departments in public administration at federal, regional and municipal level. Contact: SCI Verkehr GmbH Alexander Apking Phone: +49 221 93178 20 Email: [email protected]



CONTENTS

1 Executive Summary .............................................................................................. 20

1.1 General Findings ........................................................................................................ 20

1.2 Installed Base, Network and Fleet Development ....................................................... 22

1.3 The Transport Market ................................................................................................. 24

1.4 The Equipment Market: Products and Services ........................................................ 28

2 Market Delimitation and Methodology of the Study............................................ 30

2.1 Delimitation of the Rail Market ................................................................................... 31

2.2 Market Analysis Methodology .................................................................................... 38

3 Market Environment ............................................................................................. 44

3.1 Social and Economic Framework .............................................................................. 44

3.2 Political Antagonisms ................................................................................................. 46

3.3 Economic Influence of Other Regions ....................................................................... 47

3.4 Mining and Logistics .................................................................................................. 49

3.5 Railway Infrastructure ................................................................................................. 50

3.6 Passenger Rail ........................................................................................................... 51

3.7 Summary .................................................................................................................... 54

4 The Railway Market in the Middle East ............................................................... 55

4.1 Market Environment ................................................................................................... 55

4.2 Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 56

4.3 Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 59

4.4 Core Market: Iran ....................................................................................................... 60

4.5 Core Market: Israel ..................................................................................................... 68

4.6 Core Market: Saudi Arabia ......................................................................................... 75

5 The Railway Market in Northern Africa ................................................................ 82




6 The Railway Market in Sub-Saharan Africa ......................................................... 86






7 The Railway Market in Southern Africa ............................................................... 90




8 The Railway Market in South Africa..................................................................... 93

8.1 Socio-Economic Indicators and Market Overview ..................................................... 93

8.2 Market Environment, Market Conditions, Investment ................................................ 94



9 The Equipment Market: Infrastructure and System Technology ........................ 99

9.1 Installed Base and Network Development ................................................................. 99

9.2 Important Infrastructure Projects ............................................................................. 100

9.3 Track System ........................................................................................................... 105

9.4 Electrification ............................................................................................................ 108

9.5 Control Command and Signalling ........................................................................... 112

9.6 Passenger-Related Information Technology ........................................................... 114

10 The Equipment Market: Rolling Stock ............................................................... 116

10.1 Locomotives ............................................................................................................. 116

10.2 Mainline Passenger Vehicles (High Speed Trains, Multiple Units, Passenger Coaches).................................................................................................................................. 130

10.3 Urban Rail Transit Vehicles (Metro and Light Rail Vehicles) .................................... 148

10.4 Freight Wagons ........................................................................................................ 162 ANNEXE

1 Major Infrastructure Developments ................................................................... 172

2 Important Transport Companies and Infrastructure Managers ........................ 172

3 Important Rail Sector Investors and Holding Companies ................................ 172

4 Manufacturers .................................................................................................... 172

The study includes 67 figures and 62 tables.



DATA ANNEX IN EXCEL FORMAT

DATA SHEETS OVERVIEW

1 Market Overview

1.1 World Market Overview (Pivot)

1.2 Network Length (Pivot)

1.3 Transport Performance (Pivot)

1.4 Market Volume (Pivot)

1.5 World Market Overview (Data)

1.6 Network Length (Data)

1.7 Transport Performance (Data)

1.8 Market Volume (Data)

2 Installed Base

2.1 Installed Base Overview (Pivot)

2.2 Installed Base Country (Pivot)

2.3 Installed Base Age (Pivot)

2.4 Installed Base Overview (Data)

2.5 Installed Base Country (Data)

2.6 Installed Base Age (Data)

3 Deliveries

3.1 Deliveries Manufacturer (Pivot)

3.2 Deliveries Manufacturer (Data)

4 Additional Tables

4.1 Project Overview (Data)

4.2 Additional Figures



1 Extract from the Study

(…)

Network Length 2017

[route-km] Network Length 2022

[route-km]

CAGR 2017–2022

[% p.a.]

By Subregion and Core Market

Middle East xx xx xx

– Iran xx xx xx

– Israel xx xx xx

– Saudi Arabia xx xx xx

Northern Africa xx xx xx

Sub-Saharan Africa xx xx xx

Southern Africa xx xx xx

South Africa xx xx xx

By Transport Market

High Speed Rail xx xx xx

Conventional Railway xx xx xx

Urban Rail Transit xx xx xx

Total xx xx xx

Network lengths at year’s end and rounded to the nearest 10 route-km. CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; p.a. = per annum

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Table 1: Africa / Middle East – Current Average Market Volumes, Market Shares, and Market Development by Subregion and Core Market Data table (additional offer): 1.1 World Market Overview

(…)

Subregion Transport Performance 2016

[million tkm] Share [%]

Middle East xx 16

Northern Africa xx 2

Sub-Saharan Africa xx 9

Southern Africa xx 5

South Africa (including Lesotho) xx 66

Africa / Middle East xx 100

Transport performance rounded to the nearest 10 million tkm

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Table 2: Africa / Middle East – Fleet Development Data table (additional offer): 1.1 World Market Overview

More than 80% of all freight rail transport performance is realised in the Middle East and South Africa, which means practically in Iran and the Republic of South Africa (both are core markets in this study). This market structure is not about to change in the near future. (…)



Average Market Volume

2017 [EUR million]

Average Market Volume

2022 [EUR million]

CAGR 2017–2022

[% p.a.]

Volatility [%]

By Subregion and Core Market

Middle East xx xx xx xx

– Iran xx xx xx xx

– Israel xx xx xx xx

– Saudi Arabia xx xx xx xx

Northern Africa xx xx xx xx

Sub-Saharan Africa xx xx xx xx

Southern Africa xx xx xx xx

South Africa xx xx xx xx

By Transport Market

High Speed Rail xx xx xx xx

Conventional Railway xx xx xx xx

Urban Rail Transit xx xx xx xx

By Product Group

Track System xx xx xx xx

Electrification xx xx xx xx

Control Command and Signalling xx xx xx xx

Passenger-Related Information Technology

xx xx xx xx

Locomotives xx xx xx xx

Mainline Passenger Vehicles xx xx xx xx

Urban Rail Transit Vehicles xx xx xx xx

Freight Wagons xx xx xx xx

Total xx xx xx xx

Market volumes rounded to the next EUR 10 million. CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; p.a. = per annum

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Table 3: Africa / Middle East – Transport Performance by Subregion – Urban Rail Transit Data table (additional offer): 1.3 Transport Performance

(…) The region is home to more than 1.4 billion, of whom 226 million (~16%) live in the Middle East, which also accounts for approx. 15% of the region’s total surface. Population is growing in all subregions and core markets. The highest annual growth rates can be seen in Sub-Saharan and Southern Africa. Israel is showing the highest and Saudi Arabia the lowest population density; most other market areas range around the region’s average of 40/km2, which is a rather poor condition for the establishment of cost-efficient passenger rail transport. (…)



Figure 1: Market Environment – Commuter Rail and Urban Rail Transit in the Middle East

(…)

Saudi Arabia

Region: Africa / Middle East

Subregion: Middle East

Socio-Economic Indicators

Territory 2 149 690 km2

Population 2017 32.4 million

Population Density 2017 15 inh./ km2

Population Growth 2017–2022 xx % p.a.

Level of Urbanisation 2017 xx %

Credit Rating 2016 xx

Ease of Doing Business Rank 2017 xx

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Current Prices 2017 USD xx billion

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in PPP 2017 USD xx billion

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita in PPP 2017 Int.-USD xx

GDP Growth (constant prices) 2017–2022 xx % p.a.

Inflation Rate 2017 xx %

… … … …

Table 4: Saudi Arabia – Socio-Economic Indicators, Rail Networks, Transport and Equipment Markets Data table (additional offer): 4.2 Additional Figures

(…)

Commuter Rail and Urban Rail Transit in the Middle East

Commuter Rail:

In Operation

Under Construction

Planned

Metro:

In Operation

Under Construction

Planned

Light Rail Transit:

In Operation

Under Construction

Planned

IRAQ

SAUDI ARABIA

UAEOMAN

YEMEN

SYRIA

JORDAN

LEBANON

ISRAELPALESTINE

IRAN

Jeddah

Kuwait City

ManamahJubail

DohaDubai

Abu Dhabi

Damascus

Amman-Zarqa

Haifa-Nazareth

Tel AvivJerusalem

Be‘er Sheva

´Mashhad

Tehran

Tabriz

AhwazEsfahan

Shiraz

Mecca

Riyadh

© SCI Verkehr GmbH



Figure 2: Northern Africa – Transport Performance 2010–2022 – Mainline Passenger Rail

(…)

Market Volume and Market Development Average Market

Volume 2017 [EUR million p.a.]

CAGR 2017–2022 [%]

Volitility [%]

by Product Group

Track System xx xx xx

Electrification xx xx xx

Control Command and Signalling xx xx xx

Passenger-Related Information Technology xx xx xx

Locomotives xx xx xx

Mainline Passenger Vehicles xx xx xx

Urban Rail Transit Vehicles xx xx xx

Freight Wagons xx xx xx

by Transport Mode

High Speed Rail (HSR) xx xx xx

Conventional Railway (CR) xx xx xx

Metro (M) xx xx xx

Light Rail Transit (LRT) xx xx xx

by Investment Target

New Development and Upgrade (OEM) xx xx xx

Renewal and Maintenance (After Sales) xx xx xx

Total xx xx xx

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Table 5: Sub-Saharan Africa – Products and Services Data table (additional offer): 1.4 Market Volume

(…)

Forecast

35 070

29 300

29 890

32 880

26 900

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Base Case Upside Case Downside Case

Northern Africa – Transport Performance 2010–2022 – Mainline Passenger Rail[million pkm]

Rounded to the nearest 10 million.

=

0

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

CAGR 2010–2016: –3.0%

CAGR 2016–2022: +0.3% (Base Case) +1.9% (Upside Case) –1.4% (Downside Case)



Country Project Trans-port

Mode N/U

Route [km]

Status Start Com-

pletion

Invest [EUR

million]

Swaziland xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx

Namibia / Zambia

xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx

… … … … … … … … …

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Table 6: Infrastructure and System Technology – Projects / Southern Africa Data table (additional offer): 4.1 Project Overview (Data)

(…)

Drivers Brief Description Relevance 5-Year Future

Trend

Available Investment Funds

xx xx xx

Political Backing of Network Development

xx xx xx

… … … …

Relevance: = Very high, = High, = Medium, = Low, = Very low 5-Year Future Trend (Compared to Expected Real Economic Growth):

= Much above, = Above, = In line, = Below, = Much below

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Table 7: Track System – Procurement Drivers

(…)

Figure 3: Locomotives – Fleet by Type and Country 2017 Data table (additional offer): 2.1 Installed Base Overview

(…)

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Other Countries

Syria

Nigeria

Kenya

Iraq

Tunisia

Morocco

Algeria

Egypt

Iran

South Africa

Diesel Locomotives Electric Locomotives

Africa / Middle East: Locomotives – Fleet by Type and Country 2017 [units]

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Total: ~8,360 units



Figure 4: Mainline Passenger Vehicles (High Speed Trains, Multiple Units, Passenger Coaches) – Age Structure Data table (additional offer): 2.3 Installed Base Age

(…) Table 8: Electric Multiple Units – Procurements

Country Type Units [No.]

Max. speed [km/h]

Delivery from/to

Remarks

Middle East

Iran planned EMU investment

100 140e 2020e–2026e

In 2008 Siemens and MAPNA signed a technology transfer agreement covering the production of 150 IranRunner diesel locomotives, the first 30 of which were supplied from Germany. However in January 2010 Siemens announced it would withdraw from the Iranian market on the completion of its existing contracts. On 6 January 2016, Islamic Republic of Iran Railways (RAI) and Siemens signed a memorandum of understanding for potential co-operation in the rail sector.

… … … … … …

Northern Africa

… … … … … …

Sub-Saharan Africa

… … … … … …

Southern Africa

… … … … … …

South Africa

… … … … … …

e = estimated

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

(…)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

before 1978 1978-1982 1983-1987 1988-1992 1993-1997 1998-2002 2003-2007 2008-2012 2013-2017

High-Speed Trains Diesel Multiple Units Electric Multiple Units Passenger Coaches

Africa / Middle East: Mainline Passenger Vehicles(High-Speed Trains, Multiple Units, Passenger Coaches) – Age Structure [units]

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Average Age: High Speed Trains – 1.9 years; DMUs – 19.9 years; EMUs – 38.4 years;Passenger Coaches: 32.2 years; Total: 32.0 years



By Subregion and Core Market Average

Fleet Size 2017

CAGR 2017–2022

[% p.a.]

Volatility [%]

Middle East

Metro Cars [cars] xx xx xx

Light Rail Vehicles [units] xx xx xx

Total xx xx xx

− Iran



Total xx xx xx

− Israel



Total xx xx xx

− Saudi Arabia



Total xx xx xx

Northern Africa



Total xx xx xx

… … … … …

Africa / Middle East



Total xx xx xx

Fleet sizes rounded to the nearest 10 units/cars. (…)

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Table 9: Urban Transit Vehicles – Installed Base and Fleet Development Data table (additional offer): 2.1 Installed Base Overview

(…)

Figure 5: Freight Wagons – Manufacturers’ Market Shares 2013–2017

xx%

xx%

xx%

xx%

xx%

xx%

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

Others

Africa / Middle East: Freight Wagons – Manufacturers‘ Market Shares 2013–2017 [units]

Figures rounded to the nearest 10 units.

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Total:~xx units

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the railway market in africa and the middle east · the railway market in africa and the middle...

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