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The Paradigm of Terrorism In Indonesia:Forecasting Future Threats

Milipol Asia-Pacific, 4th April 2019Rakyan Adi Brata

2020

The Paradigm of Terrorism in Indonesia - Rakyan Adibrata | Halaman : 2

RAKYAN ADIBRATA, SH.,CCTP• Deputy Director for the International Association

for Counterterrorism & Security Professional (IACSP) Indonesia

• Senior Counter Violent Extremism Advisor, USAID Cegah Project

• Adviser to MP, Commission 1 (Military, Intelligence, Foreign Affair and Telecommunication, the House of Representative

• Conference Chairman, Homeland Security Indonesia 2018 (19-20 Sept 2018 at JCC)

• Certified Counter Terrorism Practitioners ( Singapore, 2013)

• National Security College, Course Alumni ( Canberra - Australia, 2015)

• International Centre for Counter Terrorism Alumni (Hague - Netherlands, 2016)

• International Visitor Leadership Program Alumni ( United State, 2017)

The Paradigm of Terrorism in Indonesia - Rakyan Adibrata | Page: 3

Jamaah Islamiyah Territories in the Past


The Trend


The Trend

Bomb


Islamic State of Iraq and Syria(ISIS)


Terrorism Trend between 2015-2017


Attack Plot

12

10

The Trend


Trend

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Attack Plot Attack Plot Attack Plot

2015 2016 2017

0

3

5

4

7

3


21

18

2

Target

Religious Foreign State Other

The Trend


14

4

5

2

Bomb Gun Knife Other

The Trend


Terrorism Trend in 2018


The Trend

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Attack Plot

15

11

Attack

Plot


The Trend

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Religious Foreign State Others

5

0

18

3

Target 2018

Religious

Foreign

State

Others


12

6

11

4

Bomb

Gun

Knife

Other

The Trend


The Involvement of Woman in “Amaliyah”

(Terror Attack)


The Involvement of Woman in “Amaliyah”2015


The Involvement of Woman in “Amaliyah”2017



Depok, 12 May 2018



The Surabaya Bombing, May 2018

Dita Oeprianto and Pudji Kuswati


Bomb

2 1

18

2

Target Terror between 2015-2017

Religious Foreign State Other

144

5 2

Bomb Gun Knife Other

0

5

10

15

20

5

0

18

3

Target Terror in 2018

Religious

Foreign

State

Others

12

6

11

4

Bomb

Gun

Knife

Other

In Comparison


Where the Trend will Go After 2019?


The “Neo” Jemaah Islamiyah

Canberra - The Current Terrorism Problem: An Indonesian Perspective – Rakyan Adibrata | Page: 24

NEO – Jemaah Islamiyah

• 7 NEO JI members arrested in a handgun workshop at Klaten in 2014.

• 19 terrorist arrested between 2014 – 2017 who confirmed part of NEO JI

• The reason the police call the term "neo JI" that many new people are

not included in police records (densus 88).

• the amir (leader) of JI has a new code name, which is Pak Direktur (Mr.

Director)

• The term “NEO Jemaah Islamiyah” is not a correct term, because not all

member of “NEO JI” was a old member of Jemaah Islamiyah

• Any JI member who used to be arrested will not able to join “NEO JI”.


“Mr. Director” of NEO – Jemaah Islamiyah

• His name is Parawijayanto born at Kalijati, Subang (West Java), 8

August 1964.

• Faculty of Engineering Diponegoro University (Undip), Semarang, circa

1989. He had worked in PT Pura Group, one of the giant companies in

Kudus District.

• Attended military education in Moro, Philippines fourth batch (short

course 3 months) under Nassir Abbas who headed Mantiqi 3 at that time.

• Parawijayanto led JI from 2008 until now. Where he replaced Abu Husna

as the JI amir because he was arrested in Poso and Immigration cases.

• The first child of Parawijayanto was named Askari Sibghotulhaq. Askari

was rumoured to have travelled to Syria to communicate with Jabhat

Fatah al Sham. Asykari reportedly entered the division of foreign affairs

of Jamaah Islamiyah.

L & L BP Indonesia| Prevention of Terrorism and Mitigating the Risk of Terrorism | Halaman : 26

Assessing Future Threat from Statistics

L & L BP Indonesia| Prevention of Terrorism and Mitigating the Risk of Terrorism | Halaman : 27

KEY POINTS

72

163

172

396

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

2015

2016

2017

Dec-18

Terrorist Arrest in President Jokowi’s Administration


Identifiable Risks

ISIS Deportees and Returnees


They’re Back

Facts and Figures on Deportees

1. Spread across 13 Provinces in Indonesia

2. 255 Deportees between 2017-2018

3. 35% Female; 23% Male; 42% Children

4. 105 Deportees are children; 48% below 5 years old,only 10% between 13 -18 years old.


Identifiable Risks

Terrorist Inmates

441 - Total Terrorist inmates still imprisoned spreads on 104 prison+ 30 to 40 Terrorist inmates released each year+ 60 waiting for trial (before Mako Brimob Case)70:30 Composition of ISIS – Non ISIS Inmates


The Prison, a place to consolidated among radical terrorist groups

• Recruitment

• Spread of

Ideology

• Coordinating

Terror


Identifiable Risks

Terrorist Inmates

Prisons in Number(1-3 : October 2017)

1. +100 Prisons with Terrorism Inmates

2. +400 Terrorism Inmates

3. 82 Parole Clients

4. 100 (+/-) Inmates will Release 2018-2019

5. +450 New Inmates*

6. Changing Composition between Pro ISIS and Non ISIS Inmates

*) From 2016 to 2018 arrested

Canberra - The Current Terrorism Problem: An Indonesian Perspective – Rakyan Adibrata | Page: 33

Conclusion

▪ Terrorism will not going to end anytime soon

▪ Preventing people getting radicalized is as important as preventing terrorism

before happening

▪ Countering Narrative by involving Islamic Organization need to become a major

focus for Indonesian Government to tackle radicalism

▪ Prevention and Detection of Radicalism is OUR RESPONSIBILITY


www.HLSINDONESIA.comMarch 2020

Jakarta Convention Center

2020

Rakyan Adibrata Conference Chairman

Homeland Security Indonesia 2018 & 2020

[email protected]

http://www.hlsindonesia.com/

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