The Paradigm of Terrorism In Indonesia:Forecasting Future Threats
Milipol Asia-Pacific, 4th April 2019Rakyan Adi Brata
2020
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RAKYAN ADIBRATA, SH.,CCTP• Deputy Director for the International Association
for Counterterrorism & Security Professional (IACSP) Indonesia
• Senior Counter Violent Extremism Advisor, USAID Cegah Project
• Adviser to MP, Commission 1 (Military, Intelligence, Foreign Affair and Telecommunication, the House of Representative
• Conference Chairman, Homeland Security Indonesia 2018 (19-20 Sept 2018 at JCC)
• Certified Counter Terrorism Practitioners ( Singapore, 2013)
• National Security College, Course Alumni ( Canberra - Australia, 2015)
• International Centre for Counter Terrorism Alumni (Hague - Netherlands, 2016)
• International Visitor Leadership Program Alumni ( United State, 2017)
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Jamaah Islamiyah Territories in the Past
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The Trend
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The Trend
Bomb
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Islamic State of Iraq and Syria(ISIS)
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Terrorism Trend between 2015-2017
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Attack Plot
12
10
The Trend
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Trend
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Attack Plot Attack Plot Attack Plot
2015 2016 2017
0
3
5
4
7
3
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21
18
2
Target
Religious Foreign State Other
The Trend
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14
4
5
2
Bomb Gun Knife Other
The Trend
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Terrorism Trend in 2018
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The Trend
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Attack Plot
15
11
Attack
Plot
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The Trend
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Religious Foreign State Others
5
0
18
3
Target 2018
Religious
Foreign
State
Others
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12
6
11
4
Bomb
Gun
Knife
Other
The Trend
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The Involvement of Woman in “Amaliyah”
(Terror Attack)
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The Involvement of Woman in “Amaliyah”2015
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The Involvement of Woman in “Amaliyah”2017
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The Involvement of Woman in “Amaliyah”
Depok, 12 May 2018
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The Involvement of Woman in “Amaliyah”
The Surabaya Bombing, May 2018
Dita Oeprianto and Pudji Kuswati
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Bomb
2 1
18
2
Target Terror between 2015-2017
Religious Foreign State Other
144
5 2
Bomb Gun Knife Other
0
5
10
15
20
5
0
18
3
Target Terror in 2018
Religious
Foreign
State
Others
12
6
11
4
Bomb
Gun
Knife
Other
In Comparison
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Where the Trend will Go After 2019?
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The “Neo” Jemaah Islamiyah
Canberra - The Current Terrorism Problem: An Indonesian Perspective – Rakyan Adibrata | Page: 24
NEO – Jemaah Islamiyah
• 7 NEO JI members arrested in a handgun workshop at Klaten in 2014.
• 19 terrorist arrested between 2014 – 2017 who confirmed part of NEO JI
• The reason the police call the term "neo JI" that many new people are
not included in police records (densus 88).
• the amir (leader) of JI has a new code name, which is Pak Direktur (Mr.
Director)
• The term “NEO Jemaah Islamiyah” is not a correct term, because not all
member of “NEO JI” was a old member of Jemaah Islamiyah
• Any JI member who used to be arrested will not able to join “NEO JI”.
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“Mr. Director” of NEO – Jemaah Islamiyah
• His name is Parawijayanto born at Kalijati, Subang (West Java), 8
August 1964.
• Faculty of Engineering Diponegoro University (Undip), Semarang, circa
1989. He had worked in PT Pura Group, one of the giant companies in
Kudus District.
• Attended military education in Moro, Philippines fourth batch (short
course 3 months) under Nassir Abbas who headed Mantiqi 3 at that time.
• Parawijayanto led JI from 2008 until now. Where he replaced Abu Husna
as the JI amir because he was arrested in Poso and Immigration cases.
• The first child of Parawijayanto was named Askari Sibghotulhaq. Askari
was rumoured to have travelled to Syria to communicate with Jabhat
Fatah al Sham. Asykari reportedly entered the division of foreign affairs
of Jamaah Islamiyah.
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Assessing Future Threat from Statistics
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KEY POINTS
72
163
172
396
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
2015
2016
2017
Dec-18
Terrorist Arrest in President Jokowi’s Administration
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Identifiable Risks
ISIS Deportees and Returnees
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They’re Back
Facts and Figures on Deportees
1. Spread across 13 Provinces in Indonesia
2. 255 Deportees between 2017-2018
3. 35% Female; 23% Male; 42% Children
4. 105 Deportees are children; 48% below 5 years old,only 10% between 13 -18 years old.
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Identifiable Risks
Terrorist Inmates
441 - Total Terrorist inmates still imprisoned spreads on 104 prison+ 30 to 40 Terrorist inmates released each year+ 60 waiting for trial (before Mako Brimob Case)70:30 Composition of ISIS – Non ISIS Inmates
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The Prison, a place to consolidated among radical terrorist groups
• Recruitment
• Spread of
Ideology
• Coordinating
Terror
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Identifiable Risks
Terrorist Inmates
Prisons in Number(1-3 : October 2017)
1. +100 Prisons with Terrorism Inmates
2. +400 Terrorism Inmates
3. 82 Parole Clients
4. 100 (+/-) Inmates will Release 2018-2019
5. +450 New Inmates*
6. Changing Composition between Pro ISIS and Non ISIS Inmates
*) From 2016 to 2018 arrested
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Conclusion
▪ Terrorism will not going to end anytime soon
▪ Preventing people getting radicalized is as important as preventing terrorism
before happening
▪ Countering Narrative by involving Islamic Organization need to become a major
focus for Indonesian Government to tackle radicalism
▪ Prevention and Detection of Radicalism is OUR RESPONSIBILITY
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www.HLSINDONESIA.comMarch 2020
Jakarta Convention Center
2020
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Homeland Security Indonesia 2018 & 2020