the outlook for energy - international energy forum - ief · pdf file1 the outlook for energy...

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The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2015. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040

Rob GardnerFebruary 2016

2

ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy

Energy Outlook Development

100

countries

3



15 demand

sectors

Residential

Commercial

Lt. Transportation

Hvy. Transportation

Aviation

Marine

Rail

Chemicals

Asphalt

Lubricants

Flaring

Energy Industry

Agriculture

Heavy Industry

Power Generation

4



Motor Gasoline

Distillate

Naphtha

Jet Fuel

Fuel Oil

LPG

Lubes

Asphalt

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

Hydro

Geothermal

20 fuel

types

Solar

Wind

Bio-mogas

Bio-distillate

Electricity

Market Heat

5



Technology &

Policy

6


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

2014 2040

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

2014 2040

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

2014 2040

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

2014 2040

Global Trends Continue to Evolve

GDP

PopulationDemand

Carbon Emissions

Percent

Growth from 2014 Level

7


0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2020 2040

Middle East Energy Trends

Indexed to 2000

GDP

Population

Demand

Carbon Emissions

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2020 2040

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2020 2040

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2020 2040

8


Key Energy Outlook Themes

Energy is fundamental to standards of living.

Developing nations lead gains in GDP and living standards.

Oi l remains the world’s primary fuel through 2040.

Natural gas grows more than any other energy source.

Economics and policies impact the fuel mix.

Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty.

9

Energy is fundamentalto standards of living.

10


Energy Fuels Human Development

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

10 100 1000 10000

U.N. Human Development Index

2013 Index

Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates

Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day)

NorwayUnited States

Brazil

Germany

Congo

India

China

Nigeria

Bangladesh

11


The energy equation

living standardsPeople energy needs

12

Developing nations leadin GDP growth and living standard improvements.

13


Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations

2014

$72 Trillion (2010$)

*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

Brazil

Mexico

South

Africa

Nigeria

Saudi

Arabia

Indonesia

Thailand

Egypt

China

India

Turkey

Iran

OECD*China

India

Key

Growth

Rest of

World

14


Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations

2014

2040

$72 Trillion (2010$)

~$150 Trillion (2010$)


2.0%

per year

5.0%

5.5%

3.5%

3.4%

OECD*China

India

Key

Growth

Rest of

World

15


Middle Class and Urbanization Increase

Global Middle Class

Billion People

0

25

50

75

100

1980 2000 2020 2040

Urbanization

Percent

OECD*

ChinaIndonesia

Turkey

India

0

1

2

3

4

5

'14 '30

China

India

Key Growth

Rest of World

OECD*

Source: The Brookings Institution


Source: United Nations

16


Demand Growth From Developing Nations

Energy Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

0

200

400

600

800

2000 2020 2040


OECD*

Key Growth

China

India

Rest of World

17


0

5

10

15

20

201020252040 201020252040 201020252040 201020252040

Primary Energy Demand by Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

‘10

‘25

‘40

Transportation Res/CommIndustrialElectricity

Generation

Middle East Energy Demand

18


0

5

10

15

20

201020252040 201020252040 201020252040 201020252040

Other Renewables

Biomass

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

Primary Energy Demand by Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

Transportation Res/CommIndustrialElectricity

Generation

Middle East Energy Demand

‘10

‘25

‘40

19

Economics and policies impact the fuel mix.

20


~ 35 $/ton

~ 20 $/ton

~ 80 $/ton

< 10 $/ton

2040 CO2 “Proxy” Cost

CO2 Policy Assumptions Vary by Region

21


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2014 20400

10

20

30

40

2000 2020 2040

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region

Billion Tonnes

CO2 Emissions PlateauEnergy Mix Shifts to Lower-Carbon Fuels

India

Key Growth

Rest of World

OECD*

China

Global Energy Mix

Percent

Oil

Coal

Gas

Biomass

Renewables

Nuclear


22


CO2 Abatement Costs

Abatement Cost =

Capital

Operating Costs

CO2 Abated

Dollars

Tonne

Coal Gas

23


-100

0

100

200

300

ImprovedGasolineVehicles

Gas intoPower

Nuclear HybridVehicles

CarbonCapture and

Sequestration

Wind Solar Electric Cars

Managing Climate Risk

U.S. CO2 Abatement Costs

Dollars per tonne

800

900

24

Oil remains the world’s primary fuel through 2040.

25


Transportation and Chemicals Drive Growth

0

25

50

75

Transportation Industrial Res/Comm ElectricityGeneration

Liquids Demand by Sector

MBDOE

Chemical

‘10

‘25

‘40

26


0

25

50

75

2000 2020 2040

Sector Demand

MBDOE

Light Duty

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty

Aviation

Transportation Demand

Commercial

27


Global Fuel Economy Standards (2008)

Policy in Place

Standards

Policy Evolving

28


Global Fuel Economy Standards (2014)

Policy in Place

Standards

Policy Evolving

29


High Efficiency

High Cost

Range/Charging Limit

Lower Cost

Convenience

Improving Efficiency

Global Vehicle Fleet

0

500

1000

1500

2000

'10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40

Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell

Hybrid

Natural Gas & LPG

Diesel

Gasoline

By Type

Million Cars

Hybrid

Internal Combustion

EngineElectric

Public Transport

Hydrogen Fuel Cell

Natural Gas & LPG

30


‘14

‘40‘14

‘40

0

200

400

600

Europe SouthKorea

Brazil China Indonesia India

0

200

400

600

Europe SouthKorea

Brazil China Indonesia India

Motorcycles Grow With Rising Incomes

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2020 2040

Global LDV and Motorcycle Fleet

Million

Motorcycles

LDVs

Penetration

Per 1000 People

LDVs

Motorcycles

31


0

10

20

30

OECD* China India Key Growth Rest ofWorld


Demand by Region

MBDOE

‘40

‘25‘10

U.S.


32


0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell

Hybrid

Natural Gas & LPG

Diesel

Gasoline

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2020 2040

M.E. Transportation Demand & Fleet Shift

Light Duty

Aviation

Heavy Duty

Marine

Rail


MBDOE

Light Duty Vehicles

Million

33


Remaining Oil ResourceCrude and Condensate (GBO)

North America

Europe

~100

Asia Pacific

~200

Latin AmericaAfrica

Russia/Caspian

~900

Middle East

~800

~400

~1,000

~1,100

Global

~4,500

Source: IEA

34


0

40

80

120

2000 2020 2040

Liquids Production

By Region

MBDOE

Other NonOPEC

North America

Russia

0

10

20

30

40

OPEC Non-OPEC NGLs Tight Oil Deepwater Oil Sands Other

By Type

MBDOE

‘10

‘25‘40

OPEC

Conventional

Crude and Condensate

35


0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

Liquids Trade Balance by Region

North

America

Latin

America

Europe Russia/

Caspian

Africa Middle

East

Asia

Pacific

MBDOE

Net Imports

10 30 4020

Net ExportsOther Supply

36

Natural gas growsmore than any otherenergy source.

37


Gas Demand Grows in All Sectors

0

50

100

150

200

250

ElectricityGeneration

Industrial Res/Comm Transportation

Gas Demand by Sector

BCFD

‘10

‘25

‘40

38


0

2

4

6

8

10

1980 2010 2040

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2020 2040

Electricity Demand by Region

Thousand TWh

United States

India

Europe OECD

China

Key Growth

2014

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge

Transportation

Industrial

Res/Comm

By Sector

Thousand TWh

39


0

10

20

30

40

'00 '10 '20 '30 '40

Fuel for Electricity Transitions

Electricity Delivered by Type

Thousand TWh

0

10

20

30

40

'00 '10 '20 '30 '40

Wind & Solar

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Gas

OECD

40


0

5

10

15

20

2000 2020 20400.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Transportation

Res/Comm

Industrial

Middle East Electricity Demand

Oil

Gas

Coal

NuclearBiomass

Wind & Solar

Other Renewables

Electricity Demand

Thousand Terawatt Hour

Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption

Quadrillion BTUs

41


Remaining Global Gas Resource

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

World

1000 TCF

Conventional

Unconventional

4.2

North America

2.9

Latin America

1.3

Europe

OECD

3.5

Africa

4.2

Middle East

6.5

Russia/

Caspian*

5.0

Asia Pacific

Source: IEA; YE 2014 *Includes Europe Non OECD

42


0

200

400

600

2000 2020 2040

Natural Gas Supply

0

200

400

600

2000 2020 2040

By Delivery Type

BCFD

Unconventional

Conventional

By Production Type

BCFD

Pipeline

Net Local Production

LNG

43


Unconventional Gas Technology

Source: Wood Mackenzie / EIA / Baker Hughes

Potential Improvements via

Technology

Dual Laterals

Pad Drilling

Downspacing

Water RecycleArtificial Lift

Frac Spacing

LNG rigs

IncreaseLateral Length

Slick Water

SimultaneousOperations

AutomatedDrilling

Spudder Rigs

Reduced EmissionsCompletions

VerticalIntegration

Computer Modelling

0

250

500

750

1000

0

20

40

60

80

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

U.S. Dry Gas Production

BCFD

Rig Count

44


0

30

60

90

120

150

180

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

Gas Trade Balance by Region

North

America

Latin

America

Europe Russia/

Caspian

Africa Middle

East

Asia

Pacific

BCFD

10 30 4020

Net ImportsNet ExportsOther Supply

45

Technology has thehighest potential and greatest uncertainty.

46


0

5

10

15

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Technology Helps Us Do More With Less

Global Average Energy Intensity

Thousand BTUs per dollar GDP (2010$)

2014

47


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Technology Contributes to the Fuel Mix

Global Mix of Fuels

1850 1900 20001950

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Other Renewables

2040

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

Unconventional Gas

Deepwater, Oil

Sands, Tight Oil

48


0

50

100

150

200

250

Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind/ Biofuels

Hydro / Geo

Global Demand

2040 By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr.

2014 - 2040

0.9%2014

0.7%

1.6%

2.9%0.3%

4.8% 1.3%

-0.2%

49

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the outlook for energy - international energy forum - ief · pdf file1 the outlook for energy...

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