the national integrated drought information system: colorado basin nidis project implementation team...
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The National Integrated Drought Information System: Colorado Basin
NIDIS Project Implementation Team
Roger S. Pulwarty (NOAA)Jim Verdin (USGS) Kelly Redmond (Western Regional Climate Center)
2-Wk Soil Moisture
Constructed Analogue Soil Model
Medium-Range Fcst
Palmer 4-moProbabilities
CPC Long-LeadPrecip. Outlook
Principal Drought Outlook InputsPrincipal Drought Outlook Inputs
Short-Range Fcst
3
Climatic-Drought Contributors:Climatic-Drought Contributors:A continuum A continuum
Droughts span a large range of temporal and spatial scalesDroughts span a large range of temporal and spatial scales
Droughts are driven by a number of complex variables Droughts are driven by a number of complex variables
Public and private stakeholders (incl. other agencies): Present products in need of improved coordination and Public and private stakeholders (incl. other agencies): Present products in need of improved coordination and in need regional and local detail for early warning in need regional and local detail for early warning
30DAYS
1SEASON
Heat Waves
Floods
Storm Track Variations
Madden-Julian Oscillation
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
3YEARS
10YEARS
Decadal Variability
Solar Variability
Deep Ocean Circulation
Greenhouse Gases
30YEARS
100YEARS
SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL
DECADE-TO-CENTURY
— SCALES OF DROUGHT —
NIDIS VISION and GOALSNIDIS VISION and GOALS
“ “A dynamic and accessible drought information system A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.”better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.” Public Law 109-430 (2006Public Law 109-430 (2006))
(Drought Policy Commission Report (2000), Western Governors Report (Drought Policy Commission Report (2000), Western Governors Report (04) , NIDIS Implementation Plan (07))(04) , NIDIS Implementation Plan (07))
NIDIS VISION and GOALSNIDIS VISION and GOALSImplementation:Implementation:
• Coordinate national drought monitoring and Coordinate national drought monitoring and forecasting system forecasting system
• Creating a drought early warning information system Creating a drought early warning information system (including assessment of potential impacts and (including assessment of potential impacts and triggering criteria)triggering criteria)
• Providing an interactive drought information delivery Providing an interactive drought information delivery system for products and services—including an internet system for products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)
• Designing mechanisms for improving information to Designing mechanisms for improving information to support preparedness and planningsupport preparedness and planning
• Monitoring and forecastingMonitoring and forecasting
• Risk assessment: Indicators and triggersRisk assessment: Indicators and triggers
• Communication and Preparedness Communication and Preparedness
• Drought PortalDrought Portal
Proposed NIDIS Drought Early Warning Systems Proposed NIDIS Drought Early Warning Systems
SoutheastSoutheast
Proposed NIDIS Drought Early Warning Proposed NIDIS Drought Early Warning
Coordinated reservoir Coordinated reservoir operations: operations:
Inter- and Intra-basin transfersInter- and Intra-basin transfers
Ecosystem health/servicesEcosystem health/services
SoutheastSoutheast
KremmlingLake Powell
Lake Mead
Key issuesKey issues
• What climate and drought-related triggers are used for management What climate and drought-related triggers are used for management and response seasonal operations, long-term planning (watershed, and response seasonal operations, long-term planning (watershed, industry, state, county)?industry, state, county)?
• How can we most effectively develop and coordinate information for How can we most effectively develop and coordinate information for early warning (onset, duration, demise, impacts) into drought plans? early warning (onset, duration, demise, impacts) into drought plans?
E.g. Exceptional Drought Operation Plan, Interim Operating Plan, E.g. Exceptional Drought Operation Plan, Interim Operating Plan, Power needs etc?Power needs etc?
• Proposed NIDIS Pilot: Partnerships to maintain a regional dialog on Proposed NIDIS Pilot: Partnerships to maintain a regional dialog on drought, climate and water resourcesdrought, climate and water resources
• Interagency and Interstate NIDIS Team and Implementation Plan (June 07)Interagency and Interstate NIDIS Team and Implementation Plan (June 07)
• U.S. Drought Portal rollout (October 07) U.S. Drought Portal rollout (October 07)
• Identify and review NOAA (and other) cross-line activities in support of NIDISIdentify and review NOAA (and other) cross-line activities in support of NIDIS
• (NIDIS Executive Council)(NIDIS Executive Council)
• Satellite-based drought monitoring (Feb08), Climate projections over the Colorado Basin (Fall 07)Satellite-based drought monitoring (Feb08), Climate projections over the Colorado Basin (Fall 07)
• Designing drought early warning systems for the Southeast (ACF-ACF) April 08Designing drought early warning systems for the Southeast (ACF-ACF) April 08
• Planning meeting: Upper Colorado Basin (down to Lake Mead)Planning meeting: Upper Colorado Basin (down to Lake Mead)
• National Status of Drought Early Warning Systems (June 2008 Kansas City)National Status of Drought Early Warning Systems (June 2008 Kansas City)
• Upper Colorado Basin Workshop 1-2 October, 2008Upper Colorado Basin Workshop 1-2 October, 2008
Where are we?Where are we?
• Year 1Year 1
• What exists. Gap analysis, coordination of existing informationWhat exists. Gap analysis, coordination of existing information
• Key players-Existing planning processesKey players-Existing planning processes
• What partnerships and actions are needed (to improve What partnerships and actions are needed (to improve infoinformrmation development and flow?ation development and flow?
• Year 2. Implementation of a Drought Early Warning System (across Year 2. Implementation of a Drought Early Warning System (across timescales from a season multi-year, longer term trends): timescales from a season multi-year, longer term trends):
• Improving coordination, Improving coordination, feedback into “Colorado Basin” feedback into “Colorado Basin” Drought Portal: Drought Portal:
Implementing the NIDIS: PilotsImplementing the NIDIS: Pilots
ApplicationsResearch
PredictionMonitoring
Coordinating federal, state, and local drought-related activities (e.g. within watersheds and states)
Engaging research, management and planning communities:Stakeholder defined measures of drought and triggers for
decision making
Risk Assessments
PredictionMonitoring
ImpactMitigation
ProactivePlanning
ImprovedAdaptation?
Engaging research, management and planning communities:
Stakeholder defined measures of drought and triggers for decision making
Engaging the preparedness communities
Integrating Tools:e.g. Drought Portal
Coordinating federal, state, and local drought-related activities (e.g., within watersheds and states)
Identifying and diffusing innovative strategies for drought risk assessment, communication and preparedness
NIDIS Process Model:NIDIS Process Model:Implementing NIDIS PilotsImplementing NIDIS Pilots
Western RCC Desert Research
Institute
RISA – Pacific Northwest
RISA – California
RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS
High Plains RCC University of Nebraska
Midwestern RCC Illinois State Water Survey
InternationalResearch Institute
Northeast RCC Cornell University
Climate PredictionCenter, Climate Services Division
National ClimaticData Center
Southeast RCC S.C. Dept. of Natural
Resources
RISA – Florida
Southern RCC Louisiana State
University
National CenterRegional Center
RISA’s
States ParticipatingIn Two Regions
RISA – Western Water
Climate Diagnostic Center
Pacific ENSOApplications
Center
RISA – NewHampshire
NWS RHQ
NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers
Thanks!Thanks!Thanks!Thanks!
Slide 18Slide 18
U.S. Drought PortalHome Page www.drought.gov
Key Clearinghouse Functions:Credible, Accessible, Timely Drought Information Credible, Accessible, Timely Drought Information
to answerWhere are drought conditions now?
Does this event look like other events?How is the drought affecting me?
Will the drought continue?Where can I go for help?
NOAA
Western Governors Association
USGS
Dept. of Interior (BoR)
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
USDA (NRCS, ARS, CSREES)
NASA
Indigenous Waters Network
Regional Climate Centers
National Drought Mitigation Center
Association of State Climatologists
Cornell University
New Mexico State University
Rutgers University
South Dakota State University
University of Oklahoma
University of South Carolina
University of Washington
The Weather Channel
NIDIS Implementation Team Partners (to date):
www.drought.gov
New:
Duke Power
U. Georgia
Others?