THE MISSOURI OZARK FOREST THE MISSOURI OZARK FOREST ECOSYSTEM PROJECT: ECOSYSTEM PROJECT: EVALUATING LONG-TERM EVEN-EVALUATING LONG-TERM EVEN-AGED AND UNEVEN-AGED AGED AND UNEVEN-AGED GROWTH AND HARVEST GROWTH AND HARVEST SIMULATIONSIMULATION

Thomas Treiman – Missouri Department of Thomas Treiman – Missouri Department of ConservationConservation

John Dwyer – University of MissouriJohn Dwyer – University of Missouri

David Larsen – University of MissouriDavid Larsen – University of Missouri

The MOFEP The MOFEP ProjectProject

Evaluate the outcomes of three silvicultural management regimes: Even-aged Even-aged harvestingharvesting Uneven-Uneven-aged aged harvestingharvesting No harvestNo harvest

Analysis Tools: LMSAnalysis Tools: LMS

Starting from the first Starting from the first inventoryinventory**……

TreatmentInitial

VolumeValue N

No harvest 5,723 $884 185

  (2,553) (424)   

EAM 5,946 $910 207

  (2,584) (414)   

UAM 5,365 $819 198

(2,376) (372)

* Thanks to Randy!

“Value” = volume X price

Adjusted for species and inflation.

P.S. Yes – this data IS P.S. Yes – this data IS on the web site!!on the web site!!

Grow (Project), Treat Grow (Project), Treat (Harvest) and Analyze (Harvest) and Analyze MOFEP StandsMOFEP Stands

and, so, inflexible.and, so, inflexible.

YearTotal

StandsEAM

HarvestEAM

ThinningUAM

Harvest

1997 151 33 60 58

2012 146 30 62 54

2027 140 36 58 46

2042 159 32 69 58

2057 145 29 62 54

2072 139 28 65 46

2087 151 33 60 58

Treatments based on Treatments based on the “official” MOFEP the “official” MOFEP scheduleschedule

Calculate the present Calculate the present value of future value of future harvestsharvests

Net present value (NPV) is based on timber volume (quantity), price (in current dollars) and the discount rate.

q p ) d+(1

1=NPV ntnt

T

=1t

N

=1n

wheren = 1,2,3,4....N are the species harvested t = 1,2,3,4....T are the time periods (years) when harvests are scheduledd is the discount ratepnt is the price per unit of species n in year t

qnt is the quantity of species n in year t

Issues:Issues:

What interest rate to use for What interest rate to use for discounting (discounting (DD)?)?

Differential logging costs? Timber Differential logging costs? Timber prices?prices?

What about damage due to re-entry?What about damage due to re-entry? What about the residual stand?What about the residual stand? What about risk and uncertainty?What about risk and uncertainty? What about non-market values?What about non-market values?

Compare financial Compare financial outcomesoutcomes

TreatmentHarvest Residual Totals

NVol. $ Vol. $ Vol. $ NPV

No harvest 0 $0 9,001 $1,312 9,001 $1,312 $10 185

          (3,193.5) (462.4) (3.5)  

EAM 7,125 $1,094 2,941 $455 10,066 $1,549 $320 207

          (3,673.5) (576.2) (335.6)  

UAM 2,928 $465 6,608 $973 9,536 $1,438 $263 198

(3,379.9) (504.3) (297.1)

Sensitivity analysis for Sensitivity analysis for Discount RateDiscount Rate

TreatmentDiscount Rate

1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% N

No harvest $485 $181 $68 $26 $10 $4 $2 185

  (170.9)  (63.8) (24.1) (9.2) (3.5) (1.4) (0.5)  

EAM $916 $617 $462 $375 $320 $284 $258 207

   (415.6) (366.2)  (346.5) (338.4) (335.6) (335.2) (336.0)  

UAM $753 $477 $356 $296 $263 $241 $226 198

(351.1) (324.5) (312.5) (303.4) (297.1) (293.1) (290.1)

ConclusionsConclusions

No significant financial difference, for the No significant financial difference, for the long-term one-hundred year period, long-term one-hundred year period, between UAM and EAM.between UAM and EAM.

Re-entry? EAM impacts more acres with Re-entry? EAM impacts more acres with heavy equipment traffic. What’s the heavy equipment traffic. What’s the “cost”?“cost”?

Need to include other uses such as Need to include other uses such as recreation or non-traditional forest recreation or non-traditional forest products, and non-consumptive uses, such products, and non-consumptive uses, such as bequest to future generations, and as bequest to future generations, and amenity values, such as scenic beauty.amenity values, such as scenic beauty.

Where now?Where now?

Further research on non-market Further research on non-market values (Human Dimensions)values (Human Dimensions)

Wait for the next harvest and:Wait for the next harvest and:– Compare actual vs. predictedCompare actual vs. predicted– Price trendsPrice trends– Logging costsLogging costs

Thanks! Questions?Thanks! Questions?